What are the chances?

[jwi71]

Huh, I quoted the same paper as you did and it stated 15% and likely more. Also direct copy and paste.

 

By the way, Wikipedia was not the source I used, just the one I referred to here on LS. If you want to read the article I read, it is linked to on Wiki.

 

I didn't read that...got the page number so I don't have to hunt for it?

 

(Im lazy)

[jwi71]

Anybody know where you can read about the 3% study?

 

Now that you mention it...I'd like a link for that one too...especially since I have quoted it here in the past (I heard about it from my MC...).

[jennie-jennie]

Jwi, I will give it to you that you were more successful than I in finding a good paper about the study. I googled it yesterday, but did not find the report that you posted. That is why it is good to cooperate, because two people can get better results than one.

 

You must agree with me though, that even if only your 10% is true, that is way better than the usually quoted 3%?

[jennie-jennie]

I didn't read that...got the page number so I don't have to hunt for it?

 

(Im lazy)

 

See now we are getting somewhere. We can join forces in investigating to get closer to the truth instead of being rude to each other.

 

The page was 562. Which page was your quote from?

[jennie-jennie]

Now that you mention it...I'd like a link for that one too...especially since I have quoted it here in the past (I heard about it from my MC...).

 

I know OWoman has read it. Perhaps she can give us the link.

[jennie-jennie]

OK, I am going to be a bit of a pain here, but these two figures are not actually comparable:

 

"Only 3 to 5% of relationships that result from infidelity are successful." (freestyle)

 

"In a recent survey of 16,000 university students in 53 countries, 20% of long term relationships began when one or both partners were involved with someone else."

 

They are not measuring the same thing.

[jwi71]

See now we are getting somewhere. We can join forces in investigating to get closer to the truth instead of being rude to each other.

 

The page was 562. Which page was your quote from?

 

579...First paragraph

[realworldexplorer]

MO,

 

This is an interesting discussion, I have read all the stats from many different sources. My view is that the chances of success in this situation are slim indeed but it does not lessen your current anxiety. One educated fellow I read put it this way. The affair is like an arctic expedition striving to get to the North Pole. The journey is long and hazardous with the sacrifices many, fingers and toes frozen off, men and animals dead along the way. And when they finally reach their goal with their high expectations there is nothing there but ice and snow and a bleak landscape. Once the glow of the affair is over and the tally of the sacrifices to get to the end point is summed up, the expectations of the rewards for all of the harm done is huge but the reality is you are left with two broken people who have a relationship based on deceit deception and harm done to many other innocent people. The soulmate thing is fleeting and non existent after a time when so much negativity and loss is involved. After I personally got over the sense of real victimization from my situation, was I then able to view the tragic participants with sympathy.

 

I had read one stat from S. Glass that did make an exception to the stats. Sorry to say, but when the affair stems from a rekindled flame from the past, ie. an old high school sweetheart, then the chances of that unions success are greater. Who knows really what could happen but in the majority of affairs the WS's usually come around after the bubble bursts and try to save their M's, unfortunately, sometimes, by that point it is too late.

[jennie-jennie]

579...First paragraph

 

Thank you.

[jennie-jennie]

I had read one stat from S. Glass that did make an exception to the stats. Sorry to say, but when the affair stems from a rekindled flame from the past, ie. an old high school sweetheart, then the chances of that unions success are greater.

 

Yes! That's me! LOL This thread is rewarding.

 

Talking about rewards, what I have experienced so far as the OW is already more than enough to make it worth it. I have had the best time of my life.

 

I am sorry though, that the BS, an innocent bystander, will have to pay for my joy.

[jwi71]

See now we are getting somewhere. We can join forces in investigating to get closer to the truth instead of being rude to each other.

 

The page was 562. Which page was your quote from?

 

OK...Now I see the issue.

 

The quote you are citing is from the preparatory framework for the paper being presented. That is, Schmitt is quoting his own earlier research from 1991 in terms of frequency of mate poaching as measured THEN (1991).

 

In this paper, dated 2004, Shmitt is revisting the issue using the results of the International Sexuality Description Project to retest his hypotheses.

 

He has modified his conclusions and adjusted the figure down to 10% as a result of the new data.

 

My quote comes from the conclusions section under discussions.

 

Mystery solved.

 

And that 3% number is awfully coincidental to GELs...here the author is referring to a new romantic relationship forming when BOTH are already IN one...3% chance of one forming.

 

I bet this is the same paper.

[jennie-jennie]

OK...Now I see the issue.

 

The quote you are citing is from the preparatory framework for the paper being presented. That is, Schmitt is quoting his own earlier research from 1991 in terms of frequency of mate poaching as measured THEN (1991).

 

In this paper, dated 2004, Shmitt is revisting the issue using the results of the International Sexuality Description Project to retest his hypotheses.

 

He has modified his conclusions and adjusted the figure down to 10% as a result of the new data.

 

My quote comes from the conclusions section under discussions.

 

Mystery solved.

 

And that 3% number is awfully coincidental to GELs...here the author is referring to a new romantic relationship forming when BOTH are already IN one...3% chance of one forming.

 

I bet this is the same paper.

 

10% it is then. Thanks for clearing that up, jwi. But wait was this 10% of long term or all romantic relationships?

 

No, this is absolutely NOT the same paper as OWoman was referring to. I remember some of the stuff she told about it. It was a survey done at an airport. And it was a very small survey as such.

Edited February 2, 2010 by jennie-jennie

[reboot]

You guys are talking apples and oranges here. The 3% number that is bandied about all the time is the percentage of relationships spawned from an affair that result in marriage and last more than 5 years.

 

And that study had some serious flaws, so I wouldn't pay much attention to it either.

[jennie-jennie]

You guys are talking apples and oranges here. The 3% number that is bandied about all the time is the percentage of relationships spawned from an affair that result in marriage and last more than 5 years.

 

And that study had some serious flaws, so I wouldn't pay much attention to it either.

 

I believe you are correct, reboot, so could we for ever push that study into oblivion?

[reboot]

I believe you are correct, reboot, so could we for ever push that study into oblivion?

 

Fine by me. I personally think quoting any of these "studies" is pointless.

 

The divorce rate in America hovers around 50% now, give or take a few percentage points in any given year. For ALL marriages. That figure is not based on any "study"; it's based on actual court records.

 

First marriage or fifth marriage, high school sweet hearts or affair partners, fully half of them fail, period. That's alarming.

[jwi71]

10% it is then. Thanks for clearing that up, jwi. But wait was this 10% of long term or all romantic relationships?

 

He answers that by saying the duration of these new romantic relationships is unknown and warrants further study. I'm paraphrasing there buts its in the quote in my original post.

 

I'd like to see the results of that myself...I might actually email him...

 

No, this is absolutely NOT the same paper as OWoman was referring to. I remember some of the stuff she told about it. It was a survey done at an airport. And it was a very small survey as such.

 

An airport survey likely does not qualify as academic research. The sample for one would get chewed to pieces...in fact, it really wouldnt be a asample at all in the strictest sense.

 

I actually have a maintenance IC appointment next Tuesday...I'll ask my IC then.

[jennie-jennie]

Fine by me. I personally think quoting any of these "studies" is pointless.

 

The divorce rate in America hovers around 50% now, give or take a few percentage points in any given year. For ALL marriages. That figure is not based on any "study"; it's based on actual court records.

 

First marriage or fifth marriage, high school sweet hearts or affair partners, fully half of them fail, period. That's alarming.

 

Not alarming in my opinon, but consistent with what we here in Europe call serial monogamy, ie that each adult is likely to have 4-5 serious long term relationships during their lifetime. It is time you Americans put that antiquated idea of lifelong marriage away.

[jennie-jennie]

He answers that by saying the duration of these new romantic relationships is unknown and warrants further study. I'm paraphrasing there buts its in the quote in my original post.

 

I reread your post and noticed that. In that case it seems that the original article I read stating 20% of all long term relationships start as affairs as a figure from the study might have been incorrect? Well, I have not read the entire paper by Schmitt, so for now I will just have to go on your quote warranting further studies, as it is "straight from the horse's mouth", whereas the article I read was not.

[WifeCheatedOnMe]

Maybe I'm missing something fundamental here, but how does a study of COLLEGE students equate to marital infidelity? The study doesn't appear to employ students who are MARRIED, so the use of affair is very loose here. Who isn't in college and doesn't go from one romance to another and end up with a long term relationship? I would have put that number higher than 10%. Doesn't seem to support at all the statistic of one or two MARRIED people committing adultery and ending up with their AP in a long term relationship. That number I would believe is the 3% or less.

 

Lastly, 17,000 in 53 countries is not representative of a population of billions. If you conservatively discount kids, and take a population of just 1 billion people, that sample represents less than .00017%. And what 53 countries? European or American where divorce is more prevalent, or were the #'s skewed by Asian and African countries where divorces are perhaps not so common? I don't know, but I would be highly suspect of this study.

[reboot]

Not alarming in my opinon, but consistent with what we here in Europe call serial monogamy, ie that each adult is likely to have 4-5 serious long term relationships during their lifetime. It is time you Americans put that antiquated idea of lifelong marriage away.

 

Thank you for being so superior to "us Americans".

 

Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with "antiquated ideas". A 50% divorce rate causes all kinds of socioeconomic chaos. The destruction of families, both immediate and extended, broken homes, broken children, lost dreams, bankruptcies, anguish.....

 

The only people that profit from this are the IC and MC that people flock to.

 

You are welcome to your own opinions of course, but I've love to see you quote some studies that show how divorce, in these kind of numbers, can ever be a good thing.

[jwi71]

Maybe I'm missing something fundamental here, but how does a study of COLLEGE students equate to marital infidelity? The study doesn't appear to employ students who are MARRIED, so the use of affair is very loose here. Who isn't in college and doesn't go from one romance to another and end up with a long term relationship? I would have put that number higher than 10%. Doesn't seem to support at all the statistic of one or two MARRIED people committing adultery and ending up with their AP in a long term relationship. That number I would believe is the 3% or less.

 

Lastly, 17,000 in 53 countries is not representative of a population of billions. If you conservatively discount kids, and take a population of just 1 billion people, that sample represents less than .00017%. And what 53 countries? European or American where divorce is more prevalent, or were the #'s skewed by Asian and African countries where divorces are perhaps not so common? I don't know, but I would be highly suspect of this study.

 

Its the best we have.

And, to be fair to the author, he clearly defines his scope it is WE who run with it...I refer to the author's use of "romantic relationship" and we say "marriage" and so on.

 

And behavioral statistics (stats in general tbh) are merely indicative of trends. We can draw inferences from them and little else...I say that in the sense of "there is no one right numerical answer".

 

J-J had always said 20% and it always seemed high to me...today I was bored enough to actually dig into it. Oh, and she used it which made me aware of it again.

 

And the answer is still uncertain....I may do more on it...I prolly will...my nature...

[jennie-jennie]

Thank you for being so superior to "us Americans".

 

Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with "antiquated ideas". A 50% divorce rate causes all kinds of socioeconomic chaos. The destruction of families, both immediate and extended, broken homes, broken children, lost dreams, bankruptcies, anguish.....

 

The only people that profit from this are the IC and MC that people flock to.

 

You are welcome to your own opinions of course, but I've love to see you quote some studies that show how divorce, in these kind of numbers, can ever be a good thing.

 

Not superior, just forerunners.

 

LOL In my country divorce is not seen as such a catastrophy as you picture it here. It is seen as the end of something and the beginning of something new. I believe divorce ratings are even higher here than in the US. But then we are not as governed by religion as you are.

[realworldexplorer]

Jennie jennie,

 

You certainly have an interesting pespective on things, I would like to talk more to you about it personally, is your phone number still 867 5309?

(sorry couldn't resist that one)

[jennie-jennie]

Jennie jennie,

 

You certainly have an interesting pespective on things, I would like to talk more to you about it personally, is your phone number still 867 5309?

(sorry couldn't resist that one)

 

I am sorry, but I am in the beginning of one of my 25 year long relationships. Come back when I am 70!

[reboot]

Not superior, just forerunners.

 

LOL In my country divorce is not seen as such a catastrophy as you picture it here. It is seen as the end of something and the beginning of something new. I believe divorce ratings are even higher here than in the US. But then we are not as governed by religion as you are.

 

It has NOTHING to do with religion. I said socioeconomic, not biblical. Try not to presume so much.