Statistics

[JacksBack]

New to this forum, just recently found it. I am the OM in A with MW for 19 months now. I was also married when we met but in early stages of divorce, hadn't even filed yet. I like many on this forum feel like I have a deep and special connection with my MW. I thought what we had was special enough for MW to leave M once the "time was right". Recently however I've been starting to doubt the capacity for the A to ever become more and have been researching whatever I could find on statistics. The most commonly cited statistic is ...only 3-10% of MM/MW leave the M for the A and that most of these leave within 6 months of the affair. I extrapolated this in a logical statistical curve pattern and by my calculation the chance of any MM/MW leaving the M after 2 years is less than 1%. Knowing this is helping me to come to terms with the fact that the A wont become more and therefore I should start to think of it as temporary.

[Poppy47]

Hi jack,

 

You should definitely think of it as very temporary. It could expire any second.

 

We all felt that deep special connection with the A partner at some stage. Some of us still do even after the A is over.

 

It takes a while to come to terms with the idea of being in a relationship without it ever going anywhere. It probably wouldn't work in real life anyway.

 

Did you finally divorce?

 

Don't stay in the A any longer. It gets more and more difficult to leave.

 

Poppy.

[JacksBack]

Hi Poppy,

Divorce is finalized next week:D. It was a bad marriage, so glad to be out of it. I'm relying on the stats, by my calculations there's still a chance so I will stick it out a few more months until 2 years by which time the stats say the probability drops below 1%. The stats I have read say that the chances of it working out if she did leave M are 25%, about half of what is for a "normal" relationship.

[lftbehind]

Those are some sobering statistics. Why do we do this to ourselves?

[JacksBack]

Great question, I think there are things about an A relationship that make it seem more passionate and more special than "normal" relationships and therefore make us have unreal expectations and make it hard to give up on.

[Poppy47]

Hi Jack,

 

Congratulations on having the sense to get out of a rotten marriage. You must be a man in a million. The statistics say it's usually women who will leave.

 

If you are prepared to accept the A for just THAT and never want it to be anymore, it might work. Most people can't do that forever.

 

Hope you move on soon.

Poppy.

[lftbehind]

Great question, I think there are things about an A relationship that make it seem more passionate and more special than "normal" relationships and therefore make us have unreal expectations and make it hard to give up on.

 

I think that you're right about that. The A relationships seem passionate and special, but there is the loneliness and pain also. I guess it eventually gets to be too much and that's when one gives up.

[JacksBack]

not so sure of the man in a million, I endured a miserable marriage for 19 years, I now know I should have got out a lot sooner. I think its actually the opposite, I now realize I cant accept it just being an A much longer, one more stat I came across is only 50% of affairs end within a year and that most of the remaining end in the 2-3 year range, I think because in this time frame OM/OW puts pressure on MM/MW for it to be a full R and MM/MW ends it and/or OM/OW recognizes that its not gonna become full R and gives up

[NewLeaf512]

not so sure of the man in a million, I endured a miserable marriage for 19 years, I now know I should have got out a lot sooner. I think its actually the opposite, I now realize I cant accept it just being an A much longer, one more stat I came across is only 50% of affairs end within a year and that most of the remaining end in the 2-3 year range, I think because in this time frame OM/OW puts pressure on MM/MW for it to be a full R and MM/MW ends it and/or OM/OW recognizes that its not gonna become full R and gives up

 

 

I'm not a fan. There is no way to do a stat plan with a good sample size and power size calculation.

[Popsicle]

Hello and welcome. How do you define the "early stages of divorce" that you were in when you met MW?

[lemondrop21]

Hi Jack, just curious where your statistics came from, are you willing to share links/sources?

 

Welcome to this board and I wish you the best of luck in your situation. It seems to me that at this stage, the only thing that MIGHT make her leave her h is complete NC from you, which will force her to realize how much you mean to her. Even then she may very well not leave the marriage.

[NewLeaf512]

Jack I forgot my manners. Welcome to the subforum. Popsicle you should have scolded me.

[goodyblue]

Eh. There are no reliable stats when it comes to affairs. People are loathe to say their marriage began as an affair (as mine did) or that their marriage ended because they were cheating, and a lot of people make the marriage work after infidelity and don't shout it from the rooftops, so really, any stats you get will be off kilter and way out of whack.

 

What matters is YOUR relationship. I commend you for getting out of a failed marriage and I am sorry your AP stays. Her reasons sound (to me) like an excuse, maybe it is just simple fear, who knows. But the thing that should matter is how you are feeling. If you are in pain because of this relationship then you should leave it. There is no point in sticking it out especially if you feel there is not going to be a good outcome.

 

There will probably be some BS's that say the stats are spot on and that is ok, take what helps and leave the rest. My opinion is the stats, as well as what happens here on LS is a sliver of a very large pie and not really a true look at what happens in the world.

 

Hang in there and keep your chin up.

[LimeBlue]

This is an interesting thread. I can relate in a sense, my MM told me his marriage was over in no uncertain terms. Two days later he went out hiking for the day with his wife. This was followed by going out for movies and lunch with her the very next day after hiking. So much for a marriage that's over. His excuses are numerous but the fact remains is he is still there so I cannot be that special to him.

 

Sorry for the rant, but the stats are a reminder of what I'm dealing with... even though I would give MM everything

[goodyblue]

This is an interesting thread. I can relate in a sense, my MM told me his marriage was over in no uncertain terms. Two days later he went out hiking for the day with his wife. This was followed by going out for movies and lunch with her the very next day after hiking. So much for a marriage that's over. His excuses are numerous but the fact remains is he is still there so I cannot be that special to him.

 

Sorry for the rant, but the stats are a reminder of what I'm dealing with... even though I would give MM everything

 

This is OT but I think if anyone saw what my h's leaving was like from the outside it would look crazy. They went to Hawaii two months before he left. She had no idea there was a problem because things were the same with them as always for her, non existent emotional bond. Because of this, she was absolutely blind sided and that was the awful part.

[burnt]

I see some wonderful things going for you:

 

Being out of a bad marriage that you endured for 19 years must have opened your mind about what makes a healthy relationship and what you should seek in your future.

 

This should help you in ending this dead-end affair and its negative effects on you.

 

These bad experiences I hope helps you define a much healthier set of critaria you should look for in your future relationships.

 

I personally hate stats and don't ever decide on life choices based on stattistical data--I do not fit into a data nor do I want to. When I choose an action it's based on the circumstances and the data in my own life, not data that applies to the general population. That's just my personal philosophy in life though.

 

Now specifically in your case:

You sound like you are clearly out of the 'affair fog' if you can analyze stats to decide the direction you want to take in this affair.

 

Most people involved in affairs can't think or act rationally because they are overpowered by emotions. This tells me that you are no longer paralyzed by your emotional attachments and are ready to take rational steps to end this non-relationship.

 

Congratulations on finally ending a bad marriage and good luck on the road ahead.

 

And if I may say so on much lighter note:

hey JacksBack,

it's time for you to

 

Hit the road jack,

and don't you come back

no more, no more, no more.

Hit the road jack.

[MJJean]

Stats I found during my own research say that

 

-second marriages have a failure rate of about 67%

-marriages between AP's are rare at only about 3%

-affair partners who do marry have about a 75% chance of divorcing

 

I have been with my AP for 16 years, 13 of those years married. No one knows the future, but I believe we'll stay married. Clearly, statistics aren't everything.

 

That said, statistics shouldn't be discounted. I think the best way to make a decision is to analyze available stats and combine that information with what is actually happening in your relationship.

 

When I was having the affair, my AP was telling me he loved me and wanted a life with me and was willing to take responsibility for my two young children and so on. That sounds like "future faking". And I knew the chances, statistically, of us working out were low. But we were matching actions to words. DH likes to say "Love is a verb. It's what you do." We didn't just talk. We actually did things to demonstrate we were serious about each other. And that doing is what gave us the faith to make a serious lifetime commitment to each other.

 

So, what are you and your AP doing to show love and commitment? If the answer is little or nothing, then maybe you should think about an out date. Either real action is taken by XX date or the relationship will end and you'll both go on with your separate lives.

[Doublegold]

Eh. There are no reliable stats when it comes to affairs. People are loathe to say their marriage began as an affair (as mine did) or that their marriage ended because they were cheating, and a lot of people make the marriage work after infidelity and don't shout it from the rooftops, so really, any stats you get will be off kilter and way out of whack.

 

Goody is absolutely correct.

 

Hey Jack welcome. Leaving your marriage was brave--best to you in your new life, I can only speak for myself in saying the freedom from a longterm marriage

that isn't authentic is priceless.

 

As far as Stats--I have a real world window into this. Having belonged/belonging to a group of people who met up on the Web in 2008 and remain together/in contact/social media/visit one another etc--I can say that the ones who married the AP--either after a D-Day, divorce and then becoming a regular couple as far as anyone knew, they are very happy. Also-some had a breakup of AP's, or divorce followed by marriage with someone they met after--these are some of the strongest couples I know. They are. And it is more then a handful.

 

There are a few who remain in longterm affairs. Others who have ended it.

[JacksBack]

Thank you all for your comments and responses. Sorry I did not think to collect and cite references on the stats. All stats are dependent on sampling sizes and without this knowledge the accuracy is unknown, but I have found some commonality in the stats that I have read and they seem logical to me. Stats don’t apply to all situations if there is a 90% probability that affair wont last more than 3 years then there is still 1 in 10 that will last beyond 3 years. I have found these stats to be very useful in my situation. It has helped me to understand the dynamics in play and what the likely outcome of my affair is. I have a very good bond with my AP, I feel a stronger connection than I have had with anyone else and it seems more special than any other relationship I have had. She shows me love on a daily basis. I therefore think it only right that I give it a fair amount of time to see if becomes more, but believing the stats and that chance of AP leaving M after 2 years is less than 1% helps to lift the fog for me and understand that it is very unlikely to become a real R and for my own sanity I will have soon have to pull the plug. But also to help me enjoy the time we have left together rather than be focused on the negative effects.

[EverySunset]

Everyone is different. There aren't any fast and hard statistics that are based on YOU except the ones you make.

 

I know a lot of men and women who quietly left marriages when an AP was involved. Look at you! You did it! They don't get recruited for studies or even if if they did, of COURSE they would lie.

 

I have a friend who is a therapist and he says almost all of the clients who come in because they are leaving a M have an AP involved in some way.

 

Don't rely on statistics. Rely on YOU and what you know of her.

 

One thing I have noticed from real world experiences especially is women will absolutely get up and leave when they are in love. Men frequently will stay despite a busted marriage if they get caught. If you guys have been involved for that long and she hasn't laid down the foundation to leave... I'd be looking for a single partner. Not one who is quite content to cake eat.

[privategal]

You might as well start to turn up the heat and express your ready to be together or end it. No use sitting idle and hoping for the best when your tolerance is running thin. Best wishes.

[JacksBack]

Hello and welcome. How do you define the "early stages of divorce" that you were in when you met MW?

 

Sorry popsicle, I didnt answer your question, I spent 1 year plucking up the courage to tell the ex wife I wanted a divorce then met my AP one month later, I then filed for divorce 7 months after that. I never had any affairs while married, although now I look back and wonder why not...although more I look back and think I should have bailed on the marriage a lot sooner.

[JacksBack]

You might as well start to turn up the heat and express your ready to be together or end it. No use sitting idle and hoping for the best when your tolerance is running thin. Best wishes.

 

BTW, I have never asked AP to leave her marriage. IMO it is for her to decide whether to stay in her M based on how bad the M is not how good the A is. Likewise it is then my decision whether to stay in an A or move on. If she leaves to be with me then that seems like it would put undue pressure on me and on our R.

[Popsicle]

Sorry popsicle, I didnt answer your question, I spent 1 year plucking up the courage to tell the ex wife I wanted a divorce then met my AP one month later, I then filed for divorce 7 months after that. I never had any affairs while married, although now I look back and wonder why not...although more I look back and think I should have bailed on the marriage a lot sooner.

 

Thank you for answering. Did you move out or wife move out of the house after you told her that you wanted a divorce? Were you still living with wife when you filed?

[NewLeaf512]

Everyone is different. There aren't any fast and hard statistics that are based on YOU except the ones you make.

 

I know a lot of men and women who quietly left marriages when an AP was involved. Look at you! You did it! They don't get recruited for studies or even if if they did, of COURSE they would lie.

 

I have a friend who is a therapist and he says almost all of the clients who come in because they are leaving a M have an AP involved in some way.

 

Don't rely on statistics. Rely on YOU and what you know of her.

 

One thing I have noticed from real world experiences especially is women will absolutely get up and leave when they are in love. Men frequently will stay despite a busted marriage if they get caught. If you guys have been involved for that long and she hasn't laid down the foundation to leave... I'd be looking for a single partner. Not one who is quite content to cake eat.

 

Has your friend ever mentioned of the patients in an A how many D?

 

My most pressing question is: of those who initially decide to R, how many make it, and of the ones that don't what is usually time to progression? I've read 3 years.

 

Staying together is more interesting if there is tenure.