Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[gaius]

It's airborne and deadly. Hundreds, if not thousands of people have already been infected and it's in the US, at 2 ports of entry at least. The confirmed case in Chicago apparently was carrying it for 11 days in the US before they caught on.

Has the next true pandemic started? 🤔Or will it just be another Ebola dud.

[carhill]

From WHO...

https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/

It's easy to see how things have progressed from that early report but it does shed light on the beginnings of the viral spread.

From CDC...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Quote

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, suggesting person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.

 

[carhill]

Impressive, 1000 bed emergency hospital set up in a few days...

 

[carhill]

I've found this consolidator of content to be doing daily or twice daily updates on this topic....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXAXUEP1L8k

 

[pepperbird]

more people have already died in the past 12 months from rabies. the same is true for seasonal influenza, HIV, viral hepatitis and various forms of viral encephalitis.
I'm not saying the corona virus isn't cause for concern, but the panic is unwarranted.

[elaine567]

The panic I am sure is due to the fact we know so little about it.
It has spread over China quickly and we have no idea of the true case fatality rate.
We have no idea if the so called mild cases will ultimately be fatal, or if it will  only be a problem for the very young, the very old, and the infirm like seasonal influenza 
There is no vaccine and no specific treatment. Its capacity for mutation is high.
The symptoms are fever, cough or chest tightness, and difficult breathing, so differentiating it from other like infections, is no doubt complicating matters.
 We do not even know the routes of transmission though it is assumed airborne droplets from infected secretions,  though coronaviruses also have been found in blood urine and faeces.
Until a handle is gained on this infection, I do not believe we can afford to be complacent.

[alphamale]

2 cases confirmed in France

[major_merrick]

I find it interesting that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation predicted this thing and funded it.  And some company owns the intellectual property rights to the virus.  And then there's the fact that Wuhan is home to a high-level virus research lab.  I don't know what to think of all of this, but I suspect this is some kind of a test that has been either intentionally or unintentionally released on the public.  This did NOT happen naturally.

I'm watching it carefully, although I doubt this thing will be deadly to most people.  The usual folks will bite it - the weak, disabled, elderly, and little kids.  The rest of us are likely to be OK even if we get it.  As for me and my house, the kids are staying home now PERIOD until this is over, and so am I.  Taking some extra vitamin D and we've got the elderberry tincture etc... on hand.  Hopefully my husband and Wife #4 don't bring it home to the rest of us.  If things go sideways they've got some vacation time to burn, and can stay home from work until it cools off.  For now, those two get tons of handwashing, tons of supplements, healthy diet, and get the joy of disinfecting shoes when entering the house and showering immediately. 

Yeah, I know I'm a bit extreme.  But I'm pregnant, and that's an excuse for extra caution, right?

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

MM, I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but yeah.....it's weird.

 

My mom and her twin sis are now obsessed that this is a sign of the end times/rapture (like everything else on Fox News every single day).  It is tiring.

[CAPITAL CROOK]

This virus is one that originates from livestock... In the specific areas of origin, Wuhan, these are people who live amongst their livestock.

SARS was a similar virus, in the beginning, because the virus was not adapted fully for humans, but once it was, it became a very deadly proposition for most people who contracted it.

Corona is not fully adapted yet, but once it is, it will be an incredibly dangerous virus to the very young and very old. Yes, its general symptoms are not as severe as SARS, but its ability to spread is going to be greater. Middle-aged people will probably survive an encounter with the virus, at least at the state that the virus is currently in, however that could easily change, depending on how the virus adapts.

So I mean, in overall impact, its not as deadly as SARS to all people, but it will still have the potential to destroy the vulnerable for sure.

[major_merrick]

 Flu virus can live on a hard surface for 24 hours.  I don't know the specs of this particular virus, but if it is present in moisture such as a puddle or human saliva, it is possible to track flu into your house on a shoe.  My M-I-L is a doctor, and has prepared in detail for this stuff.  SARS, H1N1, H5N1, and Ebola were threats that didn't really materialize in the US.  But they were good learning experiences. 

just a reason not to live with your farm animals.  In Asia, folks often live close to their livestock or even in poorer communities the livestock can share the same space as people.  If you have farm critters, they need their own outbuildings. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator

[Ellener]

11 hours ago, pepperbird said:

more people have already died in the past 12 months from rabies. the same is true for seasonal influenza, HIV, viral hepatitis and various forms of viral encephalitis.
I'm not saying the corona virus isn't cause for concern, but the panic is unwarranted.

My sister's an infection control expert in the UK and she said the same, so did my friend last night here in the US who is a retired GP.

1 hour ago, major_merrick said:

If you have farm critters, they need their own outbuildings. 

I think so too.

There's a racoon here every night, they carry all kinds of viruses. Including rabies and influenza.

[K.K.]

9 hours ago, CautiouslyOptimistic said:

MM, I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but yeah.....it's weird.

 

My mom and her twin sis are now obsessed that this is a sign of the end times/rapture (like everything else on Fox News every single day).  It is tiring.

Yea, anyone that has read the Bible ( I haven’t but I remember this part from years of forced Sunday school lol) could easily liken this to the revelations chapter. Something like “at the end of the world, there will be wars and rumors of wars.”

I believe they’re calling this virus W.A.R.S. And there is much talk in the world of actual ‘wars’. So I can appreciate the wordplay there. 

W.A.R.S and rumors of wars. 

Yep. I can see how one might come to the same conclusion as your peeps, C.O. 

I don’t believe it though lol. 

[major_merrick]

Funny, my faith is very apocalyptic in nature.  I suspect if this was something leading up to the end times, our apostle would preach on it.  I doubt he will.  This is just another virus - part of living in an imperfect world.  If people are worrying about the apocalypse over something like an enhanced flu, can you imagine what people would do if a plague hit our world like the Black Death in the Middle Ages?  I mean, most people would have some kind of a mental breakdown if we had something with a 50% death rate. 

To put things in perspective, modern people are more fragile physically and emotionally than our ancestors.  To our ancestors, plagues happened and early death was normal.  I think it was Hobbes who described human lives as "nasty, brutish, and short."  Even a plague with a 5-10% death rate is a normal thing in the history of our world. 

At this point, people who are in a weaker health state have to be careful.  Normal folks need to wash their hands, take their vitamins, and be careful with their health.  Households like mine (3 pregnant women and a bunch of young kids) have to be more restricted.  This is pretty basic stuff. 

[gaius]

What worries me is that it seems to be more contagious than SARS and slightly less lethal. With the symptoms often mimicking the flu people might not even realize they have it. Right now we have a clear identifier to go off of, if you've been to Wuhan or other places in China where it is, but if even one person ends up spending time in public places here and transmitting suddenly it's going to become a lot harder to pin down.

Plus it doesn't help people are a lot less intelligent and more narcissistic than they were back when SARS was occurring. During the Ebola crisis one doctor who was infected ended up on the New York subway, went bowling, used uber. If Ebola had been as contagious as Coronavirus that would have been enough to set off a widespread infection of New York. And good luck trying to quarantine a city that size.

I did go out and pick up some facemasks yesterday. Not that I'm convinced we'll need them, but if a case does pop up anywhere near here it's highly likely I won't be able to find any. There were plenty at the store so it seems like the local population isn't quite hip to the fact the risk is slightly higher with this bug than it has been in past epidemics.

[pepperbird]

12 hours ago, CautiouslyOptimistic said:

MM, I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but yeah.....it's weird.

 

My mom and her twin sis are now obsessed that this is a sign of the end times/rapture (like everything else on Fox News every single day).  It is tiring.

I'm not too concerned about the research lab portion. There's a whole other world out there that we often don't know about. These research labs aren't uncommon, and can be in locations you might never expect. It may have been some time ago, but remember how either the ebola virus or marburg virus almost "escaped" in the USA at a research la in what amounted to a commercial strip mall type area?
Personally, if the powers tat be allow the great unwashed masses to know about a disease outbreak, the potential risk is likely minimal. If there was any real danger, I doubt they say much at all. (yes, I know how that sounds)

[pepperbird]

1 hour ago, gaius said:

What worries me is that it seems to be more contagious than SARS and slightly less lethal. With the symptoms often mimicking the flu people might not even realize they have it. Right now we have a clear identifier to go off of, if you've been to Wuhan or other places in China where it is, but if even one person ends up spending time in public places here and transmitting suddenly it's going to become a lot harder to pin down.

Plus it doesn't help people are a lot less intelligent and more narcissistic than they were back when SARS was occurring. During the Ebola crisis one doctor who was infected ended up on the New York subway, went bowling, used uber. If Ebola had been as contagious as Coronavirus that would have been enough to set off a widespread infection of New York. And good luck trying to quarantine a city that size.

I did go out and pick up some facemasks yesterday. Not that I'm convinced we'll need them, but if a case does pop up anywhere near here it's highly likely I won't be able to find any. There were plenty at the store so it seems like the local population isn't quite hip to the fact the risk is slightly higher with this bug than it has been in past epidemics.

meh, I have to wear one every time I go out because some antivaxers didn't want to get their kids jabbed and now we have outbreaks of measles and mumps. you get used to it.

[major_merrick]

6 hours ago, pepperbird said:

Personally, if the powers tat be allow the great unwashed masses to know about a disease outbreak, the potential risk is likely minimal. If there was any real danger, I doubt they say much at all. (yes, I know how that sounds)

I tend to agree with that line of thinking.  I wonder if the thing is being used as a test to simulate something more deadly.  "Lets see what happens to the monkeys when we introduce this...."  And we're the monkeys.  And if a few die?  Well, that doesn't bother TPTB, because we-the-people are expendable. 

6 hours ago, pepperbird said:

meh, I have to wear one every time I go out because some antivaxers didn't want to get their kids jabbed and now we have outbreaks of measles and mumps. you get used to it.

Well we won't be eating dinner anytime soon.  I'm the unvaccinated Blonde Plague. 😎  As far as I know, folks who've never had measles aren't the ones spreading it.  And it pops up in areas where people are all vaccinated, and even the vaccinated ones get it sometimes.  Again, with all these weird labs out there, it makes me wonder what else is going on that we aren't being told.  Something REALLY doesn't add up. 

But "civilized" societies long ago gave their governments the power to play with bacteria and viruses at will.  And we wonder why these things get out?  Someday some bio-weapon will get released either on purpose or accidentally, and we'll have mass fatalities across the globe.  I'm kinda surprised it hasn't happened already. 

[Philosopher]

18 hours ago, major_merrick said:

I tend to agree with that line of thinking.  I wonder if the thing is being used as a test to simulate something more deadly.  "Lets see what happens to the monkeys when we introduce this...."  And we're the monkeys.  And if a few die?  Well, that doesn't bother TPTB, because we-the-people are expendable. 

I have been wondering something similar. I do think the virus did jump from animal to human transmission rather than being engineered. That said, from what I have read it seems like the majority of cases are not being reported and that those who have died have generally either been elderly or have had weakened immune systems (similar to those who die from seasonal flu). Therefore it seems like that the virus is not as severe as it is being made out to be. I suspect it is no more severe than swine flu.

Therefore I wonder if the Chinese government response in quarantining whole cities is a test to see how effective it is in bringing the virus under control as a trial run in case something far more serious ever does emerge. 

[gaius]

Up to 5 cases in the US now. 2 in California, 1 in Washington state, one in Chicago and one in Arizona. Plus other countries like Canada and Australia are now seeing cases pop up.

Apparently it's also fairly contagious before symptoms even show, which is a really bad sign. At this point we're one infected idiot running around in public away from mass infection setting in.

Should be an interesting next few weeks. 😐

[serial muse]

On 1/24/2020 at 11:25 PM, major_merrick said:

I find it interesting that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation predicted this thing and funded it.  And some company owns the intellectual property rights to the virus.  And then there's the fact that Wuhan is home to a high-level virus research lab.  I don't know what to think of all of this, but I suspect this is some kind of a test that has been either intentionally or unintentionally released on the public.  This did NOT happen naturally.

 

Whoo. There's a lot wrong here, but I'll start with this.

The IP conspiracy has been debunked already. There's no patent for this particular coronavirus. You may be thinking of issues in the past with scientists patenting bits of genetic code from MERS, for example (which WHO begged them not to). It was crappy but banal hogging-the-glory stuff, not nefarious.

But as there's currently a particular rumor going around right now about this, I'm pretty sure you're referring to the debunked link between this one and a 2015 patent related to an IBV, avian infectious bronchitis virus. That one infects birds, not people. 

This new coronavirus, like all coronaviruses, is zoonotic, yes. But genetic data suggest it originated most likely in bats (like SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses). There is prob an intermediate animal host too, also a mammal (in SARS it was civets and in MERS it was camels) before it jumps to people. We dont know the intermediate host yet. But it isn't a bird. There's no link to birds for this one, and no reason to suspect one. That youtube guy's a liar. Best to check sources before repeating bad info.

Edited January 28, 2020 by serial muse

[Libby1]

On 1/25/2020 at 5:30 PM, pepperbird said:

Personally, if the powers tat be allow the great unwashed masses to know about a disease outbreak, the potential risk is likely minimal. If there was any real danger, I doubt they say much at all. (yes, I know how that sounds)

It's not very realistic for them to try to hide it.  Remember how the Chinese authorities kept SARS under wraps, before finally reporting it to the WHO about 4 months after the initial outbreaks.  It was easier for them to do that back in 2003 when internet use (not to mention phones with cameras, social media etc) wasn't so widespread.   

Out of 4,500 cases of infection (at time of writing) 106 people have died from it, in the worst month of the year for fatalities.  Bearing in mind that more than 30,000 people per year die from the flu in the US - a nation with about one quarter the population of China - I'm finding it difficult at this point to see it as anything more than one more addition to the many viruses that tend to strike round about this time of year...any one of which could prove fatal to somebody who's old and frail, or already suffering from a serious medical condition.

 

[Libby1]

12 minutes ago, Libby1 said:

post

 

On the other hand, the Chinese authorities might be under-reporting mortality rates.   I don't have much faith in them.  

Edited January 28, 2020 by Libby1

[gaius]

From what I read, the CDC estimates 15 million people have gotten the flu this season in the US, and 8,600 have died. Which would be about an .05% death rate. 

According to the Chinese numbers for coronavirus, the death rate so far is about 2.5%. Since the virus kills by causing pneumonia, which takes a while, it's likely more people who are currently infected will die and push that number up. But it's also likely there are a lot more cases than officially diagnosed. Or deaths that haven't been reported. So the death rate could end up anywhere between <1% and over 5%.

So probably not the apocalypse. But considering the death rate of it's sibling SARS was almost 10% I would be surprised if it ends up so low as to compare to the flu. It's highly likely that if it does start to mass infect people in a country outside China, especially in a big city, it will cause significant short term instability and impact many families. If only the entire population of New York ended up infected at 2.5%, over 200,000 people would be dead. Making 9/11 look like chump change.

[stillafool]

Why doesn't the US stop flights from China from coming here until they get this virus under control?