NerdGoneWild Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 Wow, 6 deaths in Washington. All were in their 70s and 80s except one. I think the youngest to die was the first. He was in his 50s but had other health issues.
RecentChange Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, NerdGoneWild said: Wow, 6 deaths in Washington. All were in their 70s and 80s except one. I think the youngest to die was the first. He was in his 50s but had other health issues. It has spread in a nursing home. Certainly concerning, but it's not like these were healthy middle aged adults who picked up the virus commuting to work. They were living skilled nursing facility, which indicates that they were not in the healthiest state when they were exposed to the virus.
Redhead14 Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, RecentChange said: It has spread in a nursing home. Certainly concerning, but it's not like these were healthy middle aged adults who picked up the virus commuting to work. They were living skilled nursing facility, which indicates that they were not in the healthiest state when they were exposed to the virus. How did they contract it though??? They are confined to a nursing home . . . and we can assume that experienced, informed, professionals were caring for them. Hmmm Edited March 2, 2020 by Redhead14
serial muse Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I think one issue with this virus is that we don't yet know exactly how infectious it is (its R0 number, basically how transmissible it is). R-0 numbers vary between I think about 1.5 and 3.8 (for comparison, the flu is 1.3, and measles is at least 12). So it's fairly infectious, but that's particularly complicated by its long incubation period. And there's also some evidence that the incubation period may vary depending on the age of the patient (it may incubate for longer in younger people, which has really frustrating implications for quarantine times).
pepperbird Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I got some more good news today. I am sick with non-seasonal flu, and went back to the walk in for a quick check. The doctor told me again that my taking immunospuressants can be protective. I don't kn ow where this idea is com ming from, but from what he said, 18 minutes ago, RecentChange said: It has spread in a nursing home. Certainly concerning, but it's not like these were healthy middle aged adults who picked up the virus commuting to work. They were living skilled nursing facility, which indicates that they were not in the healthiest state when they were exposed to the virus. It could have even been passed to one of them by a health care worker. When my mom was a nurse, she worked 12 shifts, always at the same guest home ( nursing home), but other nurses worked part time at more than one hospital.nursing home/clinic. on another note, a friend of mine told me today she'd bought a mask to keep herself safe. turned out, it was just a dust mask.
carhill Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 One interactive mapping device... https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/ Regarding the SNF patients who died, visitors come and go, staff comes and goes, contractors (outside medical care providers) come and go, there is a contagious incubation period and who knows if or how many asymptomatic carriers there are. Medically challenged certainly would be one of the most vulnerable groups to fatal results.
pepperbird Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, serial muse said: I think one issue with this virus is that we don't yet know exactly how infectious it is (its R0 number, basically how transmissible it is). R-0 numbers vary between I think about 1.5 and 3.8 (for comparison, the flu is 1.3, and measles is at least 12). So it's fairly infectious, but that's particularly complicated by its long incubation period. And there's also some evidence that the incubation period may vary depending on the age of the patient (it may incubate for longer in younger people, which has really frustrating implications for quarantine times). Is it possible that an individual's genetic makeup can also play a role? I know there can be a genetic resistance to malaria, some bacterial diseases like tuberculosis and even HIV.
serial muse Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Redhead14 said: How did they contract it though??? They are confined to a nursing home . . . and we can assume that experienced, informed, professionals were caring for them. Hmmm Hard to say, because the latest info (based on virus genome sequencing and natural mutations) suggests that the virus has been circulation in Washington state for maybe 6 weeks. Visitors to the facility may have been infected. Apparently the home is now closed to visitors, but that's a bit like locking the barn door after the horses have escaped. Still, they couldn't possibly have known. Edited March 2, 2020 by serial muse
carhill Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 On the Washington state coronavirus theme, since Amazon is headquartered there, I noticed today that Prime Pantry is out of at least 80% of the items I normally have ordered over the years. Staples like canned and dry goods are pretty much gone. Few substitutes, only the high priced boutique stuff. Never have seen that in IDK how many years it's been in existence as I've been using it since it started. Normally it's hard to contain an order, today it was hard to make the 35 buck free shipping number. No doubt this is due to the corona virus fallout at the California distribution centers. Nothing life-ending but one sign of many of what's going on.
Libby1 Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I don't know if anybody has seen the video of a guy licking a shrine in Iran, while declaring that he doesn't care if he gets coronavirus - but somebody's now been arrested by the authorities for shrine-licking. Back in the late '80s when I used to love Steve Martin films, I never imagined that 30 years later the world would serve up a never ending remake of The Jerk.
serial muse Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, pepperbird said: Is it possible that an individual's genetic makeup can also play a role? I know there can be a genetic resistance to malaria, some bacterial diseases like tuberculosis and even HIV. Yes, it's possible, at least as far as being more resistant, or getting milder cases. What factors matter (genetic as well as environmental, such as smoking which tends to mean weaker lungs) is still really uncertain though. It may be that there are people who have the virus but are completely asymptomatic - but they can still spread it, like HIV. Depends on how they shed the virus, I guess, and that's something we still aren't really sure about either. I don't think - but I'm not certain - that people can be wholly immune though. And apparently, it's not clear, if you contract a coronavirus, how long you'll be immune after recovery (although probably/hopefully long enough to outlast the pandemic/epidemic, at least). Even when you get a flu vaccination, for example, it's not permanent. In part this is because these viruses mutate, and in part because your body's antibody response wanes over time, I think. But if there's an infectious disease specialist lurking here, please clarify! Edited March 2, 2020 by serial muse
Woggle Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 So far it hasn't hit my area and I am praying it doesn't spread over here. Maybe there is something to warmer weather weakening it since it has been in the 70s and late 60s all week here. I know that is wishful thinking but maybe there is some truth to it.
basil67 Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) never mind...I was behind in conversation Edited March 2, 2020 by basil67
RecentChange Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, carhill said: On the Washington state coronavirus theme, since Amazon is headquartered there, I noticed today that Prime Pantry is out of at least 80% of the items I normally have ordered over the years. Staples like canned and dry goods are pretty much gone. Few substitutes, only the high priced boutique stuff. Never have seen that in IDK how many years it's been in existence as I've been using it since it started. Normally it's hard to contain an order, today it was hard to make the 35 buck free shipping number. No doubt this is due to the corona virus fallout at the California distribution centers. Nothing life-ending but one sign of many of what's going on. People are stocking up. Didn't notice anything a miss at Safeway (our standard grocery chain), but over at H Mart, the Korean grocery store - entire shelves of products cleaned out. People are stocking up and "prepping". Tried to buy some rubbing alcohol for a project - Walmart's shelves were cleared out of all varieties.
RecentChange Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Woggle said: So far it hasn't hit my area and I am praying it doesn't spread over here. Maybe there is something to warmer weather weakening it since it has been in the 70s and late 60s all week here. I know that is wishful thinking but maybe there is some truth to it. It's (Corona virus) in our area and we have been in the 70's - driest February on record. It has been very temperate. In WA it's now coming to light that the virus has been there for weeks. From what I heard this morning, up until very recently CDC was limiting who could be tested for cornonavirus, and that the tests were not functioning properly. Apparently now the test is more widely available and the tests have been fixed. Sounds like as testing expands, we can expect to find more cases. I know many people who have gotten upper respiratory flues within the last month - makes you wonder.
Woggle Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I remember them talking about a certain strain of flu that was resistant to the flu shot and maybe it was this all along.
Ruby Slippers Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 My boyfriend is pretty fixated on the latest developments, had a minor cold last week and researched the symptoms a bit obsessively to make sure his didn't match. He's just like me in that once he gets an idea in his head, he has to worry the hell out of it till he feels it's resolved. He was born in Iran and they're pretty hard hit there. Last night he was listening to a lecture by an Iranian professor, the main point of which was that every time the virus is transmitted, it decreases in strength.
NerdGoneWild Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said: My boyfriend is pretty fixated on the latest developments, had a minor cold last week and researched the symptoms a bit obsessively to make sure his didn't match. He's just like me in that once he gets an idea in his head, he has to worry the hell out of it till he feels it's resolved. He was born in Iran and they're pretty hard hit there. Last night he was listening to a lecture by an Iranian professor, the main point of which was that every time the virus is transmitted, it decreases in strength. That seems to be a pattern with many of these outbreaks. It starts out being relatively dangerous but then mutates into a form that is more akin to the flu. In fact this is expected to be another seasonal illness in the years to come, much like the flu. I guess it is just natural selection: If it is too deadly, it kills all the carriers and can't spread as easily. So less deadly forms take hold as the long-term survivor. In this case, I don't know why it would weaken with each transmission but that is good news! Edited March 2, 2020 by NerdGoneWild 1
NerdGoneWild Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Woggle said: I remember them talking about a certain strain of flu that was resistant to the flu shot and maybe it was this all along. I had a really bad lower-respiratory illness through much of December and January. Couldn't shake it. I have to wonder now if I've already had it.
RecentChange Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said: . Last night he was listening to a lecture by an Iranian professor, the main point of which was that every time the virus is transmitted, it decreases in strength. Professor of what, immunology? Because from my understanding - having grown up with a parent in the medical field (research pharmacist), and reading what friend with a doctorate in immunology, that isn't the case. Virus do have the ability to continuously mutate - that is one way they can track and spread the evolution of a virus. But "decrease strength" I do not believe that is a universal at all. There is a very interesting pod cast that came out a few years ago. "Patient zero" by RadioLab / WNYC. Its a good listen to understand how zoological diseases jump to humans and mutate. Talks about the HIV virus and others, in laymen's terms. As for myself, I have always had a robust immune system. I got a flu once well over a decade ago, and seem to generally remain healthy while slews of co-workers are out sick etc. That said - I am not panicking yet, but strongly thinking about post poning my usual San Francisco office days (which require riding a subway in San Francisco) in favor of driving to my suburban south bay office.
RecentChange Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, NerdGoneWild said: That seems to be a pattern with many of these outbreaks. It starts out being relatively dangerous but then mutates into a form that is more akin to the flu. In fact this is expected to be another seasonal illness in the years to come, much like the flu. I guess it is just natural selection: If it is too deadly, it kills all the carriers and can't spread as easily. So less deadly forms take hold as the long-term survivor. In this case, I don't know why it would weaken with each transmission but that is good news! From what I understand, you are spot on as to evolving to a less deadly form - so it can spread more widely. I wouldn't call it "weakened" but rather more sophisticated. Killing the host quickly hinders the viruses ability to spread. 1
Ruby Slippers Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 I'm no expert, have no idea if there's any merit to this professor's point. It seemed to reassure him, so that's good. I see no point in worrying about it, and I don't. All we can do is take precautions. We've been talking about some possible overseas travel in the near future, but will likely delay that, depending on how it develops. If it comes to my area, I'll be worried about my parents most of all since they're both over 70.
sothereiwas Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said: Last night he was listening to a lecture by an Iranian professor, the main point of which was that every time the virus is transmitted, it decreases in strength. That makes zero sense. 3
sothereiwas Posted March 2, 2020 Posted March 2, 2020 36 minutes ago, NerdGoneWild said: I guess it is just natural selection: If it is too deadly, it kills all the carriers and can't spread as easily. So less deadly forms take hold as the long-term survivor. In this case, I don't know why it would weaken with each transmission but that is good news! That's generally the case but not always, for a counterpoint have a gander at the lifecycle of anthrax.
carhill Posted March 3, 2020 Posted March 3, 2020 Surprisingly little activity reported so far in Mexico. China has manufacturing and investment interests there, Mexico imports from China and the state of the Mexican health care system isn't nearly as robust as in the US. IDK, extant but unreported? 1
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