amaysngrace Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Alcohol kills Coronavirus. Link to post Share on other sites
Author gaius Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 9 hours ago, d0nnivain said: Worldwide we have about 100,000 cases of the COVID-19 virus & almost 4,000. This is a lot until you realize that 34 - 49 million people got the flu since October & between 20,000 - 52,000 died. So the flu is larger & kills more people. Yet nobody panics like this. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm It's highly likely at this point that Covid is more contagious than the flu, keeps you sick longer, kills at least 10-20x more people per person infected, and the hospitalization rates look something like .05% for the flu and 15% for Covid. This is not media hype, it's something to be cautious about and people need to take it seriously. The entire country of Italy is under lockdown right now because one person didn't take it seriously. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
basil67 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Well I've chosen a bad time to cut back my alcohol intake... 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Redhead14 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 hours ago, gaius said: This is not media hype, I'm thinking we are in a "boy who cried wolf" situation. Yeah, the media hypes stuff up and we've become hardened to that, but how do we know that this time the kid hasn't really seen a wolf??? I think we pay attention at least. Instead of being glib and dismissive, like so many are. And, when it was mostly just the media that seemed to be hyping it all up, I was a little less concerned, but now that governments are taking stringent measures, airlines are treating it seriously, companies are treating it seriously, event planners are cancelling events, I'm doing everything I can to help manage the situation. I'm getting emails from local healthcare organizations, even my bank sent an email about the measures they are are taking, reiterating use of ACH/direct deposit/mobile, offering assistance to people who may experience hardship, etc. I can't recall a response of this magnitude from businesses and airlines and governments over the flu, even SARS. And, I don't think they are relying on the media for direction regarding something that could impact them so significantly. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 7 hours ago, gaius said: The entire country of Italy is under lockdown right now because one person didn't take it seriously. People should take the flu seriously too. Maybe this will educate a few but I sort of doubt it. Link to post Share on other sites
Els Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 8 hours ago, gaius said: It's highly likely at this point that Covid is more contagious than the flu, keeps you sick longer, kills at least 10-20x more people per person infected This sounds like a lot, but the mortality rate for the flu is 0.1%, so 20x of 0.1% is 2%. From the most recent WHO writeup: While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection. Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care 8 hours ago, gaius said: This is not media hype, it's something to be cautious about and people need to take it seriously. The entire country of Italy is under lockdown right now because one person didn't take it seriously. True, in a sense. I mean, realistically, if you are between 18-60 yo, not pregnant, and have no underlying medical conditions... you are at very, very low risk yourself. But people still need to take it seriously, because they will be carriers, and transmit the virus to the people who ARE at risk. I think Italy did the right thing by closing schools and public events. The stockpiling craze is bonkers though. Firstly nobody will die without toilet paper, and secondly it will NOT be an apocalypse, and nobody NEEDS to stockpile a whole bunker full of canned food and toilet paper. Take precautions, but be sensible. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Author gaius Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Redhead14 said: I'm thinking we are in a "boy who cried wolf" situation. Yeah, the media hypes stuff up and we've become hardened to that, but how do we know that this time the kid hasn't really seen a wolf??? I think we pay attention at least. Instead of being glib and dismissive, like so many are. I agree. Think that's exactly what it is. Italy is not locking down it's entire country because they're watching CNN. They're experiencing the virus first hand, how contagious it is and how sick it can make people. And they've come to the conclusion that greviously wounding their economy is preferable to letting the spread continue. That should tell you something. Meanwhile, here in the US over 15% of the residents of the Life Care nursing home are dead from the virus already, with the number going up everyday. That's counting the whole residency, not just the residents that have caught it. The PCP for some of the people in California who caught the virus on a trip to Italy recently posted that he's never seen anything like it before. It's worth a gander if anyone still thinks this is media hype. Link to post Share on other sites
Redhead14 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Elswyth said: The stockpiling craze is bonkers though. Firstly nobody will die without toilet paper, and secondly it will NOT be an apocalypse, and nobody NEEDS to stockpile a whole bunker full of canned food and toilet paper. Take precautions, but be sensible. Yes, it's irrational, but the psychology behind that response is that it gives people a sense of control. Fear of the unknown and not having much control over it so anything they can do to feel like they are in control helps them on some level. They fail to realize that the real control they actually have is by following the recommendations and taking the precautions. Hopefully, they are doing that as well. Edited March 10, 2020 by Redhead14 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Redhead14 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, gaius said: Meanwhile, here in the US over 15% of the residents of the Life Care nursing home are dead from the virus already, with the number going up everyday. That's counting the whole residency, not just the residents that have caught it. We might need to temper this a little because 100% of the people there are in the high-risk group and likely have underlying conditions. On top of that, the close relatives of these people, i.e. their children are up in age somewhat as well so a little bit of higher risk group also. Edited March 10, 2020 by Redhead14 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 The little 'burg I live in has a large population of retired people. I'm not sure what the reason is but if/when this bug hits town it seems likely it will have a disproportionate impact here. Link to post Share on other sites
Redhead14 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Florida will be a "hot spot" I imagine . . . Link to post Share on other sites
Ruby Slippers Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Wow. It's surreal that major events that my department has spent many hours of work preparing for are now being canceled. Tons of hours of work just wiped out. Link to post Share on other sites
RecentChange Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said: Wow. It's surreal that major events that my department has spent many hours of work preparing for are now being canceled. Tons of hours of work just wiped out. All events / gatherings of 1,000 people or more have been cancelled in my area due to county mandate. This is a big hit on many businesses. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Ruby Slippers Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) For sure. A bigwig at my employer just called to discuss how to handle the cancellation of their major event. She said she's heartbroken. A major political figure was going to give the keynote address. I spent weeks working with her to prepare for this event, and for that she sent a letter of praise to my boss, which was great. It's bizarre to see all that work suddenly just go up in smoke. Edited March 10, 2020 by Ruby Slippers Link to post Share on other sites
Beendaredonedat Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I understand Trump has been exposed to someone with the virus and that Pence couldn't even tell the media if Trump has been tested. lolzzz Shouldn't the man in charge of Overseeing the containment of the virus know if his boss has at the very least, been tested? What a joke. Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Beendaredonedat said: Overseeing the containment of the virus know if his boss has at the very least, been tested? Security and health of the POTUS is not the job of the VP. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Els Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I can't even imagine being a family-owned motel/restaurant/etc in this situation. These people often put their life's savings and take on debt to build these small businesses, and an event like this will bankrupt many of them. The corporations will survive. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Beendaredonedat Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, sothereiwas said: Security and health of the POTUS is not the job of the VP. No one said it was. What I said was that he was in charge of the containment of the virus... That would include anyone who may have been exposed and that they be tested. Nice try though. Link to post Share on other sites
Ruby Slippers Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I work for a nonprofit with an ethical mission, a truly wonderful place. We rely on the generosity of many kind donors. Someone else from that department just called and told me they've all been preparing for and working on this event for two years. Two years of work down the drain, ugh. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
FMW Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 My company is prohibiting all non-essential travel and all gatherings (meetings, special events, etc). We're left with Skype/Zoom meetings and teleconferencing. The company is in the top 10 of the Fortune 500, so it has really broad-reaching effects. We've all been told to take our laptops home daily (which not all of us do on a regular basis) so that we're prepared in the event the offices are closed. We have major presences in large cities across the United States, and several of the cities (including mine) already have confirmed cases. Our San Francisco office has a confirmed diagnosis for an employee, so they've put all those who worked closely with this person on paid quarantined leave if they are unable to work from home. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Beendaredonedat said: No one said it was. What I said was that he was in charge of the containment of the virus... That would include anyone who may have been exposed and that they be tested. Nice try though. That's like expecting the VP of Walmart to know the background check status of every employee. From the standpoint of containment the POTUS is no different from any other US citizen. The person in charge of the overall effort isn't going to be involved with the details of every case. That's like expecting the captain of a cruise ship to go down into the bowels of the boat and turn a crank that spins the propeller by hand. Link to post Share on other sites
RecentChange Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Elswyth said: I can't even imagine being a family-owned motel/restaurant/etc in this situation. These people often put their life's savings and take on debt to build these small businesses, and an event like this will bankrupt many of them. The corporations will survive. Yes many small businesses - restaurants etc have already been struggling in my area due to high operational costs - some are wondering if they are going to survive this. Not as drastic, but my husband works for a small craft brewery, they had big orders for various conferences and events in the coming weeks that have all been cancelled - straight money out of our pocket. But we aren't being as hard hit as some. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Els Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, RecentChange said: Yes many small businesses - restaurants etc have already been struggling in my area due to high operational costs - some are wondering if they are going to survive this. Not as drastic, but my husband works for a small craft brewery, they had big orders for various conferences and events in the coming weeks that have all been cancelled - straight money out of our pocket. But we aren't being as hard hit as some. Sorry to hear that, hope it all works out for his brewery! Fortunately H's job and mine are not adversely affected, but his workload has increased a bit, which is really rough on him. My organization might also cancel our main annual get-together. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
SummerDreams Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 It seems that the situation in Italy is close to out of control. In my country, Greece, schools and all educational buildings will remain closed from tomorrow and for two weeks. I don't know what people with kids who work will do. Like the economy was not bad enough here... 1 Link to post Share on other sites
RecentChange Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, FMW said: My company is prohibiting all non-essential travel and all gatherings (meetings, special events, etc). We're left with Skype/Zoom meetings and teleconferencing. The company is in the top 10 of the Fortune 500, so it has really broad-reaching effects. We've all been told to take our laptops home daily (which not all of us do on a regular basis) so that we're prepared in the event the offices are closed. We have major presences in large cities across the United States, and several of the cities (including mine) already have confirmed cases. I too work for a fortune 500 - and we got the "take your laptop home every night and forward your phone to your cell phone" mandate last week. I don't think it's company wide, but that is what we are doing in SF. All business travel cancelled as well. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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