Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[sothereiwas]

WHO Joins Top Epidemiologists in Emphasizing Harm Caused by Lockdowns - "While there has been disagreement among scientists since COVID-19 appeared on the scene, opponents of the most restrictive measures have largely been sidelined. But now, insisting that "science" speaks with one voice is much harder, with a World Health Organization (WHO) official and the Great Barrington Declaration objecting to the pain inflicted by lockdowns and calling for less-draconian public health policies.

"We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus," David Nabarro, WHO special envoy for Covid-19, told Britain's Spectator magazine last week. "The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it."

He pointed to the devastating worldwide elevation in rates of poverty and hunger as a result of restrictions imposed to fight the pandemic, saying that "lockdowns just have one consequence that we must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer."

Importantly, Nabarro made his comments immediately after endorsing concerns, raised by Oxford University epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta, about the economic disruptions caused by lockdowns. Gupta is co-author—with Harvard University epidemiologist Martin Kulldorffm, Stanford University epidemiologist Jay Bhattacharya, and 32 others—of the Great Barrington Declaration. The declaration advocates refocusing protection efforts on high-risk individuals, while encouraging others to get back to their lives."

[elaine567]

Quote

For its Solidarity clinical trial, the WHO tested the effects four potential treatments - remdesivir, an Ebola drug, was one, but they also looked at malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, interferon, and the HIV drug combination of lopinavir and ritonavir.
The drugs were tested with 11,266 adult patients in total, across 500 hospitals in more than 30 different countries.
The results, which are yet to be reviewed, suggest that NONE of these treatments has a substantial effect on mortality or on the length of time spent in hospital, the WHO said on Thursday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54566730

Not good news...

[mark clemson]

But we already have Remdesivir, so we don't actually NEED all those other treatments for severe cases, right? Although I guess having options is always nice. Just ramp up Rem production...

[elaine567]

"These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay"

So basically none of these drugs, including Remdesivir, were shown to have any beneficial effect on hospitalised Covid 19 patients.

[mark clemson]

Hmmm. That's weird, I thought Rem had been clinically proven. But I haven't researched it - maybe just one or two studies.

Possibly there's something going on with the populations involved. Americans and Europeans responding differently would be weird, but these sorts of things aren't unheard of.

It's too bad, I don't think the world's economies are going to stay in a holding pattern forever. Eventually something will give. That has already started in some US states, e.g. Florida, where they're just abandoning all mandatory restrictions.

[Philosopher]

9 hours ago, mark clemson said:

Hmmm. That's weird, I thought Rem had been clinically proven. But I haven't researched it - maybe just one or two studies.

Possibly there's something going on with the populations involved. Americans and Europeans responding differently would be weird, but these sorts of things aren't unheard of.

It's too bad, I don't think the world's economies are going to stay in a holding pattern forever. Eventually something will give. That has already started in some US states, e.g. Florida, where they're just abandoning all mandatory restrictions.

I have come to the conclusion that there is just no good way to deal with this pandemic. Eliminating the virus is likely only viable for very remote countries such as New Zealand and is reliant on a vaccine becoming available unless they want to remain shut from the rest of world permanently. Suppressing the virus has too big economic and social side effects and appears not to work as shown by the second waves in Europe. In trying to suppress the virus people just get fed up with the restrictions and so start ignoring them and so hamper the efforts to suppress the virus.

Trying to live with the virus and protecting the vulnerable at the same time runs too high a risk that the virus will leak into the vulnerable population due to the high number of infections such as strategy would involve. 

.

[elaine567]

3 hours ago, Philosopher said:

Trying to live with the virus and protecting the vulnerable at the same time runs too high a risk that the virus will leak into the vulnerable population due to the high number of infections such as strategy would involve. 

I am actually sick of people saying "Let's just live with the virus" ie let it rip, as they haven't a clue what that actually means.
The virus if allowed free rein would quickly spread into the vulnerable population and quickly use up all the medical resources, not only the ones set up to treat Covid but every thing else too. That is what exponential spread means... many just do not understand the concept.
Most Western countries have huge numbers of those considered vulnerable, and our population densities are on average massive, so how on earth could they all be kept safe and out of hospital?
Our hospitals would be on their knees almost right away and the numbers would just keep rising and rising...

A and E doctor on radio this morning.
He said the difference from the March spike is that the people turning up seriously ill just now to his hospital are not almost all very elderly like last time, but people in their 30's. 40's and 50's... I would have pressed him on that point but the interviewer seemed to ignore it or deliberately glossed it over maybe...

[mark clemson]

12 hours ago, Philosopher said:

I have come to the conclusion that there is just no good way to deal with this pandemic.

Yeah, I guess we'll see. A vaccine would presumably help, although I'm guessing a T-cell based vaccine won't work particularly well for the most vulnerable populations (elderly). I could always be wrong.

I do think the main impact OF suppressing the virus has been to prevent the medical infrastructure from getting overwhelmed. And saved some lives. AND destroyed some (economically).

At some point, I suspect life will go more or less back to normal. Whether that's in 2 years or 20 (or somewhere in between) I guess remains to be seen.

[QuietRiot]

22 hours ago, elaine567 said:

I am actually sick of people saying "Let's just live with the virus" ie let it rip, as they haven't a clue what that actually means.
The virus if allowed free rein would quickly spread into the vulnerable population and quickly use up all the medical resources, not only the ones set up to treat Covid but every thing else too. That is what exponential spread means... many just do not understand the concept.
Most Western countries have huge numbers of those considered vulnerable, and our population densities are on average massive, so how on earth could they all be kept safe and out of hospital?
Our hospitals would be on their knees almost right away and the numbers would just keep rising and rising...

A and E doctor on radio this morning.
He said the difference from the March spike is that the people turning up seriously ill just now to his hospital are not almost all very elderly like last time, but people in their 30's. 40's and 50's... I would have pressed him on that point but the interviewer seemed to ignore it or deliberately glossed it over maybe...

I know quite a few people that are banking on the, "There's a 99% survival rate!" from Covid.

[Philosopher]

22 hours ago, mark clemson said:

Yeah, I guess we'll see. A vaccine would presumably help, although I'm guessing a T-cell based vaccine won't work particularly well for the most vulnerable populations (elderly). I could always be wrong.

I do think the main impact OF suppressing the virus has been to prevent the medical infrastructure from getting overwhelmed. And saved some lives. AND destroyed some (economically).

At some point, I suspect life will go more or less back to normal. Whether that's in 2 years or 20 (or somewhere in between) I guess remains to be seen.

The ideal situation would be that one of the vaccines currently in stage three trials gives long lasting sterilising immunity to the vast majority of the population, meaning those vaccinated would be unable to spread it at all. In this ideal situation, everything would be able to go back to normal once enough people have been vaccinated for herd immunity. This ideal situation however looks very unlikely. More likely is a vaccine that results in those who are vaccinated getting milder reinfections and perhaps reduces but does not stop spread. Such a vaccine should allow remove of some social distancing restrictions but probably will not be enough to return to normal.

There are also treatments. Regeneron, a cocktail of antibodies, seems to have worked very well with Donald Trump and it may be that this or a similar treatment significantly reduces the death rate and length of hospital stays. I reckon neither a vaccine or treatment on its own will allow life to go back to normal, but both together might. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Philosopher
Typo correction

[Prudence V]

On 10/18/2020 at 11:39 AM, QuietRiot said:

I know quite a few people that are banking on the, "There's a 99% survival rate!" from Covid.

The real % survival rate won’t be known for some time yet, I imagine. That percentage is currently based on those who’ve tested positive, and met certain conditions in their death (tested positive within two weeks before dying; cause of death can be directly linked to symptom of virus, etc) There may be many who survive though have never tested positive; equally, there may be others who die, but have not been tested, and whose symptoms are not among those currently identified as mainstream Covid (bearing in mind the large Covid symptom study keeps uncovering new presentations of the disease). 
 

Of course, that’s not even entering the debate around “secondary Covid“ deaths...

[elaine567]

There was a randomized trial back in April from China that reported Remdesivir was ineffective, so I was surprised to see Remdesivir given so much prominence.
Gilead, the makers of the drug keep pushing it... publishing studies that defend it...

[Foxhall]

Not much sign of this Covid subsiding,

anyone any positive hopes in that regard?

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

One of my BFFs has been sick for over a month with diarrhea and stomach cramps, with no answers after a stool test and CT scan.  She's getting testing for Covid tomorrow (and seeing a GI specialist).  I read an article that it's possible GI distress is the only symptom.  

[schlumpy]

On 10/16/2020 at 7:33 PM, elaine567 said:

"These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay"

So basically none of these drugs, including Remdesivir, were shown to have any beneficial effect on hospitalised Covid 19 patients.

I reserve judgement until I understand the conditions under which the tests were performed.

Timing can be very important in medication as in at what stage in the disease is the medication introduced.

Was the medication given to people at the beginning, in the middle as well as towards the end of the disease progression?

It would be unlike a controlled experiment to do that. It's a variable in the trial that could invalidate the findings.

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
Removed Statement - Conjecture / Conspiracy Theory

[Curious-Sam]

There has been some great news on the covid front recently. The Pfizer vaccine finished phase 3 trials and came back 90% effective. The Oxford uni vaccine is about to finish it's phase 3 trials and expectations are for similar results.

Both vaccine makers have expect to be finished and available for approval by local governments before year's end - in oxfords case both UK and Australia and NZ are already mass producing it. If countries approve it quickly vaccine can be rolling out before Xmas.

I'm very positive moving forward with COVId. We have one last tough little bit to  get through over the next month to end 2020 - then with rollout of vaccines being repidlly deployed I see us stomping thevirus into the 2020 dust. Bring on 2021 - the rebound year.

As bad as 2020 was I think 2021 will make up for everything we lost and more. I'm predicting swift healing across the world, a rapid return to our normal lives and an epic and awesome 2021! So great to have such positive news coming in.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Curious-Sam

[serial muse]

With COVID19 cases in the US skyrocketing, the international aid community now considers our situation a humanitarian disaster. Seems about right. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/12/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

[BC1980]

I think we're in for some pretty dark days. When I was working on the Covid unit, it took a lot of people up to 2 weeks to become sick enough to require hospitalization. So hospitalizations and deaths can lag quite a bit from these high daily case counts. We didn't have enough staff, so we were stretched pretty thin. That's something I don't think the general public fully understands. The number of healthcare workers you have is finite. We're used to pretty much having healthcare on demand in the US ( if you can pay for it that is). A lot of us have been spoiled by the ability to walk into a clinic and receive service or show up to the ER and get admitted. 

As far as working on the Covid unit, I couldn't do it anymore. I feel somewhat guilty, but I just couldn't work in those conditions anymore. It was taking a mental and physical toll. A lot of people simply leave hospitals because they can't take it anymore. Two people left right behind me. There are many people that feel the same way who simply won't do it or will only work the minimum number of days required for their own sanity. 
 

Rural states will suffer greatly because many of them have weak healthcare infrastructures at baseline. Something else the general public doesn't understand. My state struggles to have enough ICU beds, physicians, and nurses, ect. on a daily basis without Covid. Dumping Covid on top of that is. . . . well, I think last summer was only the preview for what is to come this winter.

Edited November 14, 2020 by BC1980

[d0nnivain]

I'm speechless.  

CNN is reporting that the positivity rate in South Dakota is 60% !  Good Lord.  NY & NJ are talking about shutting down if the positivity rate hits 3%   Yet Gov. Noem is out making commercials talking about  how her state is open & free.  WTF is wrong with her?  

I'm also reading stories about people who with their dying breath are spouting conspiracy theories & denying that Covid is real. How stupid do you have to be do deny the existence of the very thing that is killing you? 

What exactly will it take for people to get serious about this?  Why would people rather die & kill others then do something as simple as wear a mask?  

When did people lose all reason & critical thinking?  To those who claim that masks are some sort of government control, to what end?  What exactly does the government get out of making you wear a mask?  It's harder for law enforcement.  There is no financial advantage .  What's the point?  

I really don't understand.  

[Happy Lemming]

13 minutes ago, d0nnivain said:

CNN is reporting that the positivity rate in South Dakota is 60% ! 

 

Yes... I saw that very story on youtube.  They interviewed a nurse that saw all of this, first hand.

 

[Ellener]

On 10/19/2020 at 6:36 PM, Foxhall said:

Not much sign of this Covid subsiding,

anyone any positive hopes in that regard?

It's still ongoing here in Texas, I read about the other pandemics and it seems to take a couple of years for a pandemic to run its course...still reading more about that.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

6 hours ago, d0nnivain said:

I'm speechless.  

CNN is reporting that the positivity rate in South Dakota is 60% !  Good Lord.  NY & NJ are talking about shutting down if the positivity rate hits 3%   Yet Gov. Noem is out making commercials talking about  how her state is open & free.  WTF is wrong with her?  

I'm also reading stories about people who with their dying breath are spouting conspiracy theories & denying that Covid is real. How stupid do you have to be do deny the existence of the very thing that is killing you? 

What exactly will it take for people to get serious about this?  Why would people rather die & kill others then do something as simple as wear a mask?  

When did people lose all reason & critical thinking?  To those who claim that masks are some sort of government control, to what end?  What exactly does the government get out of making you wear a mask?  It's harder for law enforcement.  There is no financial advantage .  What's the point?  

I really don't understand.  

 

The "positivity rate"  isn't even a fair assessment of the virus.    (It is mostly relevant only to positivity rates in other areas)  (In Manhattan it is typical that you've been somewhat near to 75 people between your apartment and the store on the corner...  in South Dakota you don't get near to 75 people in 3 weeks)  (those in South Dakota who have been near numerous people of late are the vast majority of those getting tested... and they are not a fair sample slice of the entire 885,000 population of South Dakota)

 

If only geniuses took IQ tests then IQ tests wouldn't be very indicative of the human mind across a broad scale.

 

How many people are stepping out after 4 (or 8 ) months of living alone, having their groceries delivered, and being in contact with zero others and marching right to the Covid test site??

 

approximately ZERO !

 

The vast majority of people taking those tests are already sick...     (SOME are there because they think the pain in their elbow is somehow a symptom of Covid... others are there because some other (actual) symptom caused someone to demand they get a Covid test)  (Many are there because they've been checking off the symptoms one by one over the past 48 hours or 10 days, and want to know if they have Covid)

 

But under those conditions, a  "60% positivity" rate is NOT THAT remarkable.

 

Especially in a state that is 46th of 50 in terms of population.

 

Just how many people are taking Covid tests there?

[basil67]

55 minutes ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

The vast majority of people taking those tests are already sick...     (SOME are there because they think the pain in their elbow is somehow a symptom of Covid... others are there because some other (actual) symptom caused someone to demand they get a Covid test)  (Many are there because they've been checking off the symptoms one by one over the past 48 hours or 10 days, and want to know if they have Covid)

But under those conditions, a  "60% positivity" rate is NOT THAT remarkable.

Here in OZ, we get tested if we have symptoms of COVID, cold or flu, or if we've been in proximity with someone who's positive...much like the testing that you have.  

I don't have a month by month breakdown, but our positivity rate between states for the duration of COVID is 0.01% to 0.06%   So yeah, 60% positivity is extraordinary. 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by basil67

[regine_phalange]

In my city, 5 in 1000 people were tested positive just yesterday. With this rate everyone will get it and It's a matter of time until I get it too (if I haven't already). 

[SumGuy]

I recall being promised and assured this was no more dangerous than the typical seasonal flu, maybe Winston Smith has "corrected" that history for us.