QuietRiot Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 6 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said: Here is the thing.... If positive cases are on the upswing, but people aren't dying or aren't flooding ICU's like back in March/April, what does it mean,. then?? I looked at a few charts and the death rates per day seem to be at a low right now... Is it just "running its course"? Or are the majority of positive tests not resulting in severe illness or death? Admittedly I haven't followed the small details of this that closely..I just dont seem to be hearing all the gloom and devastation like a few months ago...All we seem to be hearing is "more positive cases"... TFY There had been an article that was ran today that herd immunity may now be at 43% instead of the 70% that it once was. Link to post Share on other sites
d0nnivain Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, QuietRiot said: There had been an article that was ran today that herd immunity may now be at 43% instead of the 70% that it once was. What? At no point did 70% of any population have immunity to this disease. I think even 43% sounds high. Do you really think that many people in any group have been exposed? We have about 330 million people in the US. 2.1 million have confirmed cases & almost 120,000 died. Even if you triple the number of cases for people who had mild strains but never got tested, that certainly doesn't add up to 43% with immunity to my understanding of mathematics but I was an English major, so who knows. Edited June 24, 2020 by d0nnivain 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 (edited) The current confirmed case count for the USA is a little under 2.5 million today, about 370 deaths per million population. The much more interesting number IMO is the percent of tests that come back positive, which has been dropping steadily over time. Moderator's note: The linked image of a bar graph originally provided with this post was of a static image that displayed data through June 7th, per the chart's X-axis. It does not display data as of the date of this posting, but rather data from 17 days ago. The linked web site, covidtracking.com, is operated by The Atlantic, and provides raw data for use by others in visualizations. The image above appears on their web site as an example only. Edited June 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Removed misleading image link. Link to post Share on other sites
QuietRiot Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, sothereiwas said: The current confirmed case count for the USA is a little under 2.5 million today, about 370 deaths per million population. The much more interesting number IMO is the percent of tests that come back positive, which has been dropping steadily over time. Yeah I have noticed the percent positive is pretty low where I live. Actually, below 5% is where you want to be. Edited June 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Removed quoted deleted comment. Link to post Share on other sites
Author gaius Posted June 25, 2020 Author Share Posted June 25, 2020 7 hours ago, d0nnivain said: NY was a ghost town for most of this. It was eerie. Anybody who traveled went to their other home in a different state. .they weren't out running around socializing. The problems in NY stemmed from lack of knowledge. I know a # of people who can trace their infections back to the synagogue in New Rochelle. Most times they were 3 -4 people removed from those who attended the service but it was that one hot spot. Then you have to look at Queens. It had a high immigrant population of "essential workers" who were living with a lot of people crammed into small quarters. Poverty contributed to this which dovetails into the racial inequality being protested. When Florida stopped letting people in from my area who didn't self quarantine for 14 days, I had to scrap plans to go to my Florida home. I could not stay for 14 days. Now even if I wanted to go down, I would have to self quarantine when I got home. Yes, there are bars & restaurants now spilling onto the sidewalk without masks but masks are still mandatory. The fact that masks are a choice in other places & most people chose to defy common sense is what makes me crazy. From what I've heard from people living in New York there was still a lot of socializing going on and the numbers reflected that. With non-essential workers making up the bulk of hospitalizations during the later stages. Way after the lockdowns were put in place. And that a lot of people don't wear masks or just pull them down even though they're required. You might not have gone to your vacation house d0nni but plenty of New Yorkers did judging by the license plates you see in Florida. And they were nice enough to bring the virus with them in a lot of cases. Despite the fact there are some great New Yorkers like you and serial, it's still annoying. But now it's Florida's problem and we'll see how we deal with it. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
lana-banana Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Across the United States, more than 36,000 new infections were reported by state health departments on Wednesday — surpassing the previous single-day record of 34,203 set on April 25. Texas, Florida and California led the way, with all three states reporting more than 5,000 new cases apiece. Three states — California, Florida and Oklahoma — reported record highs in new single-day coronavirus cases, while hospitalizations hit a new peak in Arizona, where intensive care units have quickly filled. Even as case numbers climb, reports circulated that the federal government is poised to stop providing federal aid to testing sites in some hard-hit states, including Texas, prompting a top federal official to respond that testing was on the rise. Thanks to their aggressive lockdown measures, it appears only the Northeast is safe-ish for now. It's pathetic. Multiple people have made this point already, but it's hard not to think of this like gun violence: something the rest of the world has more or less gotten under control, while America just throws up its hands and says "no, it's too hard". Americans should love the best parts of their country, but anyone who doesn't think it's a dangerous and increasingly irrelevant backwater (outside some nice urban areas) is kidding themselves. It's no wonder the EU doesn't want Americans to travel there. The pandemic isn't under control, at all. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Angelle Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 46 minutes ago, lana-banana said: Across the United States, more than 36,000 new infections were reported by state health departments on Wednesday — surpassing the previous single-day record of 34,203 set on April 25. Texas, Florida and California led the way, with all three states reporting more than 5,000 new cases apiece. Three states — California, Florida and Oklahoma — reported record highs in new single-day coronavirus cases, while hospitalizations hit a new peak in Arizona, where intensive care units have quickly filled. Even as case numbers climb, reports circulated that the federal government is poised to stop providing federal aid to testing sites in some hard-hit states, including Texas, prompting a top federal official to respond that testing was on the rise. Thanks to their aggressive lockdown measures, it appears only the Northeast is safe-ish for now. It's pathetic. Multiple people have made this point already, but it's hard not to think of this like gun violence: something the rest of the world has more or less gotten under control, while America just throws up its hands and says "no, it's too hard". Americans should love the best parts of their country, but anyone who doesn't think it's a dangerous and increasingly irrelevant backwater (outside some nice urban areas) is kidding themselves. It's no wonder the EU doesn't want Americans to travel there. The pandemic isn't under control, at all. We were doing well here in Ohio - numbers had decreased significantly - but they're rising again now. Link to post Share on other sites
SincereOnlineGuy Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 There are towns in the USA where upward of 10% of all residents have, or have had Covid. It's as if nobody in the media is remotely tuned-in to what is actually happening, and to what is most surely going to happen. The numeric trends, practically everywhere, are swinging upward, and the only mere stalling of those trends to date has been a function of people staying away from other people. A true second wave is likely years in the future... because the first one won't fizzle out for ages. What we've endured so far is the cartoon equivalent to Jerry being stuck in a small hole at the bottom of a wall, and Tom putting his foot in front of the hole for 12 or 14 weeks, and then moving it. All while much of the media insists that you do not have mice, and thus there is no reason for Tom's foot to remain in front of the wall. Link to post Share on other sites
Art_Critic Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) We need to pat more attention to the death rate, as it goes down and the new cases rise, the MSM isn't even talking about that we have the lowest death toll in months right now. Moderator's Note: The link originally included in this post presented highly editorialized content as evidence in lieu of journalistic fact, and included various derogatory characterizations toward groups of individuals. It has been removed for failing to meet the standards we expect for objective sources. Edited June 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Removed non-credible source. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
QuietRiot Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Art_Critic said: We need to pat more attention to the death rate, as it goes down and the new cases rise, the MSM isn't even talking about that we have the lowest death toll in months right now. At the beginning of this until now...I have noticed...at leastin my county....that the "Total tested" vs "Total Positive" are almost neck-and-neck. The numbers are almost equal. IE out of 29,200 tested, 28,400 had NEGATIVE results. If you think about it..>it sounds like a good thing? Edited June 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Removed deleted content from quote Link to post Share on other sites
BaileyB Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Art_Critic said: We need to pat more attention to the death rate, as it goes down and the new cases rise, the MSM isn't even talking about that we have the lowest death toll in months right now. That’s because the trend in infections is trending down in age - the people who are currently getting infected are young people, less likely to become seriously ill and require hospitalization, and less likely to die. Best quote I heard yesterday was from a physician - with reduced risk of serious outcome comes great responsibility, to protect others that are more at risk and not spread the disease to their parents and grandparents. Also, deaths tend to lag a few weeks after infections. So, the death rate may remain stable if those who are being infected are younger but it may increase only because deaths lag infection by a few weeks. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
BaileyB Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Quote Pompeo added that, "We certainly don't want to reopen a plan that jeopardizes the United States from people traveling here and we certainly don't want to cause problems anyplace else." Lol, this made us laugh yesterday... the concern should not be that people will travel to the US with Coronavirus. I doubt that any country is going to be willing to open their borders to people traveling FROM the US any time soon... 3 Link to post Share on other sites
elaine567 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, BaileyB said: Lol, this made us laugh yesterday... the concern should not be that people will travel to the US with Coronavirus. I doubt that any country is going to be willing to open their borders to people traveling FROM the US any time soon... Surprisingly some European countries are willing to open their border to UK citizens. We are "the sick man of Europe" yet they are prepared to ignore that as they want our tourist money... 1 Link to post Share on other sites
sothereiwas Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 13 hours ago, lana-banana said: Thanks to their aggressive lockdown measures, it appears only the Northeast is safe-ish for now. It's pathetic. Go to worldmeters.info and drill into the USA, then sort by deaths per million. The NE isn't in the list of states with lowest death rates. Link to post Share on other sites
Piddy Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 My county went to mandatory masks yesterday. Long overdo. We're a little slow here in the wild west state of Florida. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
serial muse Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, sothereiwas said: Go to worldmeters.info and drill into the USA, then sort by deaths per million. The NE isn't in the list of states with lowest death rates. Because the infection is a moving target, obviously. And it has moved away from the NE and toward the west and south US, as has been said here again and again and again. Come on, this post is totally misleading. Seriously? Meanwhile - Houston is running out of ICU beds, and possibly will exceed that capacity today! So that's fun! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-24/houston-on-pace-to-exceed-intensive-care-capacity-by-tomorrow Edited June 25, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Removed tracking ID from link 2 Link to post Share on other sites
serial muse Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 One family member held a surprise party in Texas at the end of May - an acceptable gathering under current standards there. Now 18 of them are infected with COVID19, including two elderly parents and a woman battling breast cancer, all three of whom ended up in the hospital. Good job everyone! https://www.khou.com/article/news/north-texas-family-shaken-after-18-relatives-test-positive-for-covid-19-following-surprise-birthday-party/287-ea8960ea-4c3c-40c1-b75e-f4437fe6f836?fbclid=IwAR0ZWd5YzDdYXUFvStSZ6CYvB7dYMfAf6kBy6OTi4CayZeC2LEm5SZxQA9g Link to post Share on other sites
Art_Critic Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 3 hours ago, serial muse said: Houston is running out of ICU beds, and possibly will exceed that capacity today! So that's fun https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3 Quote HOUSTON — Houston hospitals are sending mixed messages on the capacity level of ICU beds -- now and in the near future. On Wednesday, The Texas Medical Center had 97 percent of ICU beds occupied and 27 percent of the patients are being treated for COVID-19. The normal base occupancy rate at the world's largest medical center is 70 to 80 percent. "If this trend continues, our hospital system capacity will become overwhelmed," TMC leaders warned Houstonians in a letter Wednesday. On Thursday, four CEOs who signed that letter backed off, saying the level of alarm is "unwarranted." 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Piddy Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 My brother in law just found out that he has to quarantine for 14 days because two workers at his company tested positive. Not sure how he'll do that. He has a wife and one kid still at home. Maybe stay in the bedroom for two weeks. Link to post Share on other sites
elaine567 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 "Europe saw an increase in the number of weekly cases of the coronavirus for the first time in months last week, with the easing of lockdown restrictions fuelling the rise, the World Health Organization has said. ...He said: “Last week Europe saw an increase in weekly cases for the first time in months. For the last few weeks I have spoken about the risk of resurgence as countries adjust measures. In several countries across Europe these risks have now become a reality.” He said 30 countries had seen increases in the number of new cases over the last two weeks and in 11 of these countries “accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink”.." Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 On 6/24/2020 at 10:34 AM, elaine567 said: Dark, cold, damp places with poor social distancing - sounds a bit like winter... Sounds a bit like a bat cave... 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Personally I think requiring masks outdoors in non-urban areas when not at cross-family gatherings (such as a multi-family party) is over-reach. Require people to wear masks when going into an enclosed space to protect others, by all means. But there's no reason to force someone to wear one when hiking outdoors alone, etc. Just IMO. I guess the problem is that if you don't require it then you get large outside gatherings sometimes with people who don't want to wear one (or just forgot theirs and are happy to take the risk). So they have to make it a "blanket" approach since it's too hard to fine tune. Right now, based on people's behavior I've witnessed, there doesn't seem to be any actual enforcement. And I totally agree that the last thing we want to do is start putting people in jail over not wearing them. I wonder when they will start issuing tickets/fines. Probably fairly soon. Gotta balance those state budgets! (Which is, to be fair, very hard to do when people aren't employed or spending money.) And to think - technically we could have eradicated this in 3 weeks. Oh well. Link to post Share on other sites
preraph Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 They've had to go back to quanantine in the big Texas metroplexes. It increased 50% over two weeks, not testing, but hospitalizations. They're not closing businesses, but requiring masks, social distancing, etc. Link to post Share on other sites
Piddy Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 The CDC says that actual cases could be 10 times what's been reported. That would put it at 24 million. Link to post Share on other sites
BaileyB Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Quote Houston hospitals are sending mixed messages on the capacity level of ICU beds -- now and in the near future. On Wednesday, The Texas Medical Center had 97 percent of ICU beds occupied and 27 percent of the patients are being treated for COVID-19. If you need a bed and there are none available, does it matter if the people have Covid or not? Link to post Share on other sites
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