Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[Piddy]

3 hours ago, serial muse said:

I'm sure you'll be relieved to hear that people have, in fact, done the math. This analysis of 315 large US cities, 281 of which had protests (not riots, that's a dog whistle), suggests that they were not responsible for the spikes. No such spike observed in NYC, for example.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

It's well documented in FL, meanwhile, that clusters of people at bars and parties are driving the spike. Even Gov De Santis,  agrees with this assessment. That's why FL and TX are closing back up. They reopened too early and they know it, too.

Let it go. This is disinformation and it's deadly. Just stop. 

Wear a mask, everyone.

 

Good advice as we know.  However, Governor DeSantis refuses to mandate mask wearing.  Many counties have done this on their own though.  

[BaileyB]

11 hours ago, Inflikted said:

And my boss (who borderline thinks coronavirus is a hoax) and her family went down there on vacation all this past week.

Who goes to Florida on vacation right now? Seriously, who goes on vacation anywhere right now?

It never fails to amaze me how entitled some people can be. 

As to the older people ignoring public health advice, my father is very high risk and he has been more social than we have been these past few weeks. Case numbers have declined, and he is not wasting any time socializing with friends... he’s attended more than one gathering in the same day this past week! His apartment building held a “party” for all the residents (mostly older people) this past week - he said they kept social distance, but still...

Edited June 28, 2020 by BaileyB

[SincereOnlineGuy]

7 hours ago, BaileyB said:

Seriously, who goes on vacation anywhere right now?

 

Merely  "going on vacation right now"  doesn't necessarily bring harm to anyone.

 

Those wanting to leave their city life, and their sometimes crowded supermarkets, and instead fill the van with lots of food supplies and other necessities and DRIVE to their vacation cabin in the woods, in the county which has zero active Covid cases at present are not harming anyone.

 

In case you've not figured it out... it is other people  moving all around near to other people  who are the carriers of Covid.

Whether it's "vacation" or bereavement which inspires someone to take a lengthy, solo driving trip to somewhere has zero bearing on whether their action will bring Covid to you.

 

 

[BaileyB]

6 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

Those wanting to leave their city life, and their sometimes crowded supermarkets, and instead fill the van with lots of food supplies and other necessities and DRIVE to their vacation cabin in the woods, in the county which has zero active Covid cases at present are not harming anyone.

Respectfully, that is not what was described above. 

[Ellener]

On 6/27/2020 at 5:59 AM, QuietRiot said:

I read somewhere after the protests, the cases didnt go up much, whereas at the bars...it did

Yes, the current thought is it's many times more likely to catch this virus indoors.

[chillii]

Well that's a no brainer just like colds or other stuff.

As far as the oldies yeah they're much the same here , don't know if l'm just seeing the ones that think fk it or what but oddly l've seen heaps of them in groups all yacking and coughing and laughing. Maybe they think if their numbers up it's up, don't know.

l live in a holiday area too and heaps of people have come up from our capital to sit it out in their holiday houses but we have no cases up here so most people aren't impressed and don't want them around and bringing it with them.

 

Edited June 29, 2020 by chillii

[clia]

I tend to think there were a lot of contributing factors to the surges now in places like AZ, CA, FL, TX, GA, etc., that created a perfect storm -- you have places with a more susceptible population (hadn't been hit hard yet, unlike places in the northeast), Memorial Day weekend, protests, George Floyd funeral (Houston), bars/restaurants open during the protests (which wasn't the case in much of the northeast), people coming across the border (Mexico is surging, and three of those states are border), and boom, powder keg waiting to happen in the right combination.    

I just find it extremely hard to believe that the protests didn't contribute at all to the recent surge (particularly since it is mostly younger people), which seems to be what is being pushed.  (TX, FL, and GA had been "open" since April -- why surge now?)  I recognize that NYC hasn't seen a surge, but NYC was hit hard early (e.g., possibly less susceptible population), and bars/restaurants weren't open yet when the protests were going on.  That said, if it is truly the case that large outdoor gatherings don't contribute to coronavirus spread, provided everyone is wearing masks, then that is great news!  That would indicate that we can safely welcome spectators back to golf, baseball, and other outdoor sports, and have outdoor concerts, festivals, art fairs, farmer's markets, etc., with little to no risk of spread.

[serial muse]

13 minutes ago, clia said:

I tend to think there were a lot of contributing factors to the surges now in places like AZ, CA, FL, TX, GA, etc., that created a perfect storm -- you have places with a more susceptible population (hadn't been hit hard yet, unlike places in the northeast), Memorial Day weekend, protests, George Floyd funeral (Houston), bars/restaurants open during the protests (which wasn't the case in much of the northeast), people coming across the border (Mexico is surging, and three of those states are border), and boom, powder keg waiting to happen in the right combination.    

I just find it extremely hard to believe that the protests didn't contribute at all to the recent surge (particularly since it is mostly younger people), which seems to be what is being pushed.  (TX, FL, and GA had been "open" since April -- why surge now?)  I recognize that NYC hasn't seen a surge, but NYC was hit hard early (e.g., possibly less susceptible population), and bars/restaurants weren't open yet when the protests were going on.  That said, if it is truly the case that large outdoor gatherings don't contribute to coronavirus spread, provided everyone is wearing masks, then that is great news!  That would indicate that we can safely welcome spectators back to golf, baseball, and other outdoor sports, and have outdoor concerts, festivals, art fairs, farmer's markets, etc., with little to no risk of spread.

The report I linked a bit above cannot drill down into whether transmission actually occurred during the protests, but it can show that there was not a protest-related surge. So that could mean one of two larger things: 1) that there was not appreciable transmission, perhaps due to mask-wearing; and 2) that any transmission was offset by non-protestors largely staying home at the same time, countering that effect. As you can imagine, each of those has very different implications for future policy. But we don't know which it was. All we can say is that the current surges we are observing are not due to the protests, or in large part are not due to the protests. Which means they are due to something else. De Santis suggests they are due to more testing. As I have said upthread, the data don't support that either.

But we do have definite indications of clusters occurring at bars, etc, as I also stated upthread. So for everybody in this thread saying "you do the math" I am telling you outright: The math has been done. Opening too soon and not mandating proper safety measures is why there are surges in the South. That is, frankly, unequivocal! It's the fact, Jack. I'm sorry if it's not the story you want to hear. I'm sorry this is so crappy. I'm sorry this year seems to be going on forever. I'm sorry for the many many many dead people and the loved ones who are mourning them.

But I'm MOSTLY sorry that people didn't do what they ought to have done MONTHS AGO because that is why we are here now. SO DO IT NOW GET IT TOGETHER UNITED STATES THIS DENIALISM IS NUTSO BE BRAVER AND SMARTER THAN YOU ARE BEING RIGHT NOW.

In short, I would say that what it indicates is that yes, we need to depoliticize mask wearing, and right now. Everyone needs to get on board with this, and stop creating drama just to create drama. I'm talking to the various people who intentionally go to places like Trader Joe's and Starbucks to raise a ruckus over people told they must wear a mask to shop inside.

It is also quite clear that indoor businesses have benefited from both mask-wearing and social distancing. If that means bars need to stay closed because people make poor decisions when they are drinking, or because they become belligerent, then so be it. The bars stay closed for the time being.

Those of you on here who are saying it's a freedom issue - stop! That's what this means. Wear a damn mask already, and clam up. I think it's about time everybody cut out the selfish drama and did what's best for the community. What more is it going to take?

Edited June 29, 2020 by serial muse

[clia]

36 minutes ago, serial muse said:

The report I linked a bit above cannot drill down into whether transmission actually occurred during the protests, but it can show that there was not a protest-related surge. So that could mean one of two larger things: 1) that there was not appreciable transmission, perhaps due to mask-wearing; and 2) that any transmission was offset by non-protestors largely staying home at the same time, countering that effect. As you can imagine, each of those has very different implications for future policy. But we don't know which it was. All we can say is that the current surges we are observing are not due to the protests, or in large part are not due to the protests. Which means they are due to something else. De Santis suggests they are due to more testing. As I have said upthread, the data don't support that either.

But we do have definite indications of clusters occurring at bars, etc, as I also stated upthread. So for everybody in this thread saying "you do the math" I am telling you outright: The math has been done. Opening too soon and not mandating proper safety measures is why there are surges in the South. That is, frankly, unequivocal! It's the fact, Jack. I'm sorry if it's not the story you want to hear. I'm sorry this is so crappy. I'm sorry this year seems to be going on forever. I'm sorry for the many many many dead people and the loved ones who are mourning them.

I see and acknowledge the results in the paper you linked.  Thank you for linking it.  It appears to be the first study of its kind?  I'm not qualified to review this study to determine whether the models and approach used are accurate, etc.  I will be curious to see what other papers studying the effects of the protests have to say as well, along with peer review of this particular study.  I would like nothing more than for this study to be validated by others -- that would be wonderful.  I just personally find it hard to believe that the protests didn't contribute at all to the surge in some of these areas.  Even the study you linked acknowledges that in Maricopa County, AZ the protests appear to have contributed (p. 23).  But like I said -- I don't think it was any one thing -- I think it seems like a combination of things (including openings).  I'm not arguing that the openings didn't contribute -- of course they did.  That's why we will likely start to see some bumps up in NYC data as it begins opening.  But this is just my opinion, based on the trends I've observed.  

[elaine567]

Covid is often minor or asymptomatic in the young. How many people in their 20s, 30s even 40s would seek out a test for a bit of a cough or "flu"? I guess not many. Especially if it meant self isolating or having to miss work if they tested positive.
Whereas those with issues or older may seek out a test to identify whether they had it or not, to assess their future risks, or they would get a test when they sought medical help or were hospitalised.

[elaine567]

On another subject.
An interesting snippet which may explain why some in the BAME community have died from the disease.
A 36yo fit guy and body builder was at death's door when he was admitted to hospital with the virus.

Quote

Once his breathing problems began, he was reluctant to call the NHS for help, because of the myth then circulating in parts of the Asian community that people admitted to hospital were never discharged alive.

Myths are dangerous things...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-53197880

[serial muse]

2 hours ago, clia said:

I see and acknowledge the results in the paper you linked.  Thank you for linking it.  It appears to be the first study of its kind?  I'm not qualified to review this study to determine whether the models and approach used are accurate, etc.  I will be curious to see what other papers studying the effects of the protests have to say as well, along with peer review of this particular study.  I would like nothing more than for this study to be validated by others -- that would be wonderful.  I just personally find it hard to believe that the protests didn't contribute at all to the surge in some of these areas.  Even the study you linked acknowledges that in Maricopa County, AZ the protests appear to have contributed (p. 23).  But like I said -- I don't think it was any one thing -- I think it seems like a combination of things (including openings).  I'm not arguing that the openings didn't contribute -- of course they did.  That's why we will likely start to see some bumps up in NYC data as it begins opening.  But this is just my opinion, based on the trends I've observed.  

Yes, I think that there must have been transmission during the protests, for sure. But the question that keeps getting bandied about here is what's causing these surges, which are very much occurring in places that opened early and have been hostile to the idea of social distancing and mandating masks. I think it's really really important for people to abandon that hostility now, because even if the federal government will not openly acknowledge what they know perfectly well, the states at least must start to care about their own people

I think it's a bit splitting hairs to wonder at this point whether the protests might have contributed a bit or not, here and there. The bigger picture, as I said, seems to present pretty straightforward and compelling evidence. It's very hard to understand why much of the U.S. really just doesn't want to accept that evidence. It just starts to seem specious when people are trying to downplay what feels pretty damn obvious at this point. Why argue about the fine points when we can address the big picture? We all want to open up and resume our lives. We need leadership here, and we need consistency, because closing state borders is not really going to work. States' rights are basically useless in a pandemic, because the coronavirus doesn't care about borders. What happens in FL and TX now will affect NY and DC, and so forth. I just wish I knew what argument would actually get people to pay attention. Morality and community spirit does nothing, data do nothing, reason does nothing. What will actually work here??? It's so frustrating.

Edited June 29, 2020 by serial muse

[Weezy1973]

Human nature as a perfect example in this thread. Despite evidence showing protests  aren’t the cause of the surge, people who were against the protests still can’t accept it and need to blame.
 

This is the epitome of American culture. There needs to be some short term pain (shutting down) for long term gain (saving lives / opening back up). Some Americans struggle mightily with that. And doing things for their community rather than just in their own self interest. And listening to experts. What a nightmare.

[preraph]

I don't know if it is or not, but the news keeps saying it is.  What have you seen that is evidence that it isn't?  And I am keeping in mind that it will vary from location to location.  It's a combination of things where I live, though it was the largest spike,  but in the small town where I was to go get a sonogram, it was directly caused by their little protests there.  I'm in a big town and there's some bigger gatherings prior to, but there, there wasn't.  The hospital itself said it was the protesters that are coming in or their relatives.  

 

[lana-banana]

So far the evidence suggests that indoor gatherings that are the problem because the virus spreads so rapidly in re-circulated air. Situations where people are indoors and not wearing masks---e.g. people visiting their families, or with other people where they "feel comfortable"---seem to be the most dangerous. But studies have also shown the virus spreading rapidly at restaurants, gyms, and shared living facilities. 

I attended one of the country's largest protests with my husband and not only are we both negative, but our city is one of the rare area that continues to show a decline in cases. I think the protests were actually very instructive for how future gatherings will go: strict mask-wearing enforced at all times and hand sanitizer EVERYWHERE. I felt much safer at an enormous outdoor protest than I felt in an office building with maybe ~30 people across 6 floors. 

[schlumpy]

2 hours ago, lana-banana said:

So far the evidence suggests that indoor gatherings that are the problem because the virus spreads so rapidly in re-circulated air. 

The simple fix for that is to increase the number of air changes per hour by increasing the outside air introduced by the mixed air system of the buildings air handler. Of course be prepared to pay some sky high electrical costs for cooling. 

[QuietRiot]

Well, they just passed one more mandate that borders our county (2nd one) to wear masks.

Edited June 29, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
Removed political comments in non-political forum.

[chillii]

No doubt in my mind protests are causing most of the spikes l don't care what they try and tell you. l mean l'm not there but we saw lots of clips from all over the place . Got no doubt some were there true to the cause but tell ya what , just as many looked like little spoilt brats throwing tantrums like how dare the world send them corona , how dare they need to stay at home, l'm gonna smash that innocent persons car , burn that town down , stamp my feet god damn it, that's how it looked from here. You could almost pick the genuine ones with masks and spacing and using their brains. Seemed some cities were pretty sensible but others were just insane so yeah even if you do get the truth from some cities there's gonna be massive variables for sure just look at the clips. But eh , they're heading for 100k a day one report said this morning , bit of a coincidence ahhhh, don't ya think ,perfect timing ,  so my guess is Trumps doing everything he can to shut people up and skew the causes deny deny deny because of what he' seems to have just let happen there and the effg mess the place will be .

[NuevoYorko]

2 hours ago, chillii said:

No doubt in my mind protests are causing most of the spikes l don't care what they try and tell you. 

The two biggest recent spikes in the state where I live are attributed to a church service with 300 people "filled with the holy spirit" and very loud and active, and a seafood processing plant.

[Piddy]

I see where Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump on wearing masks.  Trump is finding himself on an island by refusing to wear a mask.  Good for Republicans advising people to wear masks.  Trump is not leading by example here.  Here in Florida we had 6093 new cases in the last 24 hours.  

[QuietRiot]

21 minutes ago, Piddy said:

I see where Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump on wearing masks.  Trump is finding himself on an island by refusing to wear a mask.  Good for Republicans advising people to wear masks.  Trump is not leading by example here.  Here in Florida we had 6093 new cases in the last 24 hours.  

Yeah, Pence is now advicing others to wear masks....I think he did this along with the Gov.of TX. You know what would make headlines though? If Trump got the Covid 19. That'd really be the final straw in his ability to win the election. WEll, not that he ever wanted to be president. 

[Piddy]

17 minutes ago, QuietRiot said:

Yeah, Pence is now advicing others to wear masks....I think he did this along with the Gov.of TX. You know what would make headlines though? If Trump got the Covid 19. That'd really be the final straw in his ability to win the election. WEll, not that he ever wanted to be president. 

Pence is a little late to the wearing of masks also.  Up until recently he was defending peoples right to assemble / constitutional rights blah, blah, blah when defending Trump's indoor rallies with no social distancing and not advising people to wear masks.  

It was becoming a joke when we'd going out in public saying we could tell who was a Trump voter by who was not wearing a mask.  Maybe now people will start to ignore Trump's irresponsible behavior and lack of leadership. 

Listen to the scientists.  Dr. Fauci  said yesterday that we could go from 40,000 new cases a day to 100,000 cases a day.  Trump's magical / wishful thinking it away doesn't seem to be working. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Piddy

[Weezy1973]

Some states are reopening to restart the economy while others are continuing the lockdown. It will be interesting to see what happens. Like an experiment of sorts, that unfortunately is going to cost some people their lives.

[Art_Critic]

Funny though if you look at world o meter as a reference we have been having 40k new cases a day and the death rate has been falling for a month now and hasn't ticked upward

Look at NY for example, they were having up to 1k deaths a day there and now down to 17 yesterday..

So maybe the economy should be opened since the risk of death has almost diminished, the key will be if the death toll keeps going down, if it does then all how wanted the economy frozen were wrong.

My state has been open for over a month with nothing but a lowering death toll...

 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Art_Critic

[Ellener]

On 6/29/2020 at 7:40 AM, clia said:

if it is truly the case that large outdoor gatherings don't contribute to coronavirus spread, provided everyone is wearing masks, then that is great news!  That would indicate that we can safely welcome spectators back to golf, baseball, and other outdoor sports, and have outdoor concerts, festivals, art fairs, farmer's markets, etc., with little to no risk of spread.

It seems to be an indoor transmitted infection. I'd go to somewhere if I could social distance in a crowd but I'd have to think about sharing bathroom and beverage facilities at events.

One of my friends is having a 4 July party, I don't think I'll go but if I do I'm going to stay outside and wear my mask. The others will raise an eyebrow, they are a bit 'if it was that bad the president would wear a mask/we'd all be sick/it's all hyped type thing' and I want to have fun if I'm going out not field rants. Maybe I'll go for half an hour, there's a nice place nearby my dog likes to run.