Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[sothereiwas]

3 hours ago, elaine567 said:

They are often used in place of masks by front facing staff but they are useless.

Several nations that are doing OK (Denmark maybe?) have not joined the mask cult because masks are of limited usefulness in preventing the spread of COVID in their considered opinion. I strongly suspect that mask wearing is a lot like the TSA; basically almost useless with the intent of restoring public confidence. In that regard they seem to be working, I'm seeing people back to invading my space now, so that's not awesome. 

[Ruby Slippers]

22 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

I'm seeing people back to invading my space now, so that's not awesome. 

Yes. I was really enjoying random people in the grocery store staying out of my personal space.

[serial muse]

Mask-wearing isn't a cult any more than seatbelt-wearing is a cult. That is neither a helpful nor an accurate way to frame scientific advice, or scientific research. You're entitled to your opinion, but that doesn't make it true.

Here are some conclusions from a modeling study published June 10 in Proc of the Royal Society A. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376

Quote

We show that, when facemasks are used by the public all the time (not just from when symptoms first appear), the effective reproduction number, Re, can be decreased below 1, leading to the mitigation of epidemic spread. Under certain conditions, when lock-down periods are implemented in combination with 100% facemask use, there is vastly less disease spread, secondary and tertiary waves are flattened and the epidemic is brought under control.

 

Also, Denmark is seeing an uptick in its cases since early July, so is now encouraging mask-wearing. Initially, it was for people who tested positive. Now it's also being encouraged on public transportation: https://www.thelocal.dk/20200731/denmark-changes-face-mask-guidelines-now-advised-on-busy-public-transport

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200720/could-face-masks-become-compulsory-in-denmark:

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“When the spread of infection begins to increase in Denmark, as is expected, I think we will also begin to see recommendations on the use of face masks here. That is my expectation,” professor of infectious disease at Copenhagen’s Rigshospitalet Jens Lundgren told national broadcaster DR.

 

[sothereiwas]

"Critically ill COVID-19 patients recovered rapidly from respiratory failure after three days of treatment with RLF-100, a therapy granted fast-track designation in the United States, two drug companies said Sunday.

Geneva-based Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG RFLB.S has a patent for RLF-100, or aviptadil, a synthetic form of a natural peptide that protects the lung. US-Israeli NeuroRx Inc. partnered with Relief to develop the drug in the United States.

In June the US Food and Drug Administration granted fast-track designation to RLF-100 for treatment of respiratory distress in COVID-19.

While a Phase 2/3 clinical trial with 70 patients is ongoing, RLF-100 is being administered on an emergency basis to some patients who are too ill to be admitted to the trial." - https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/

[Weezy1973]

Here’s covid-19 deaths yesterday:

Spain: 24
France: 17
Japan: 16
Canada: 13
UK: 12
Germany: 9

United States: 1,358

Population of countries above: 426 million
Population of United States: 328 million
 

Perspective for anybody that thinks the US “plan” is working.

[nospam99]

^^^ One more time (four months later and still true), CDC Covid-19 Alert No. 2 issued on March 24 allows ANY death to be 'assumed' caused by Covid. Do the other countries have a similar directive from their government? You can't compare 'apples and oranges'.

[nospam99]

^^^ For months I've heard rumors that health care providers get more Medicare money for Covid cases. As a CPC, I can tell you that private insurance uses Medicare standards in many cases which would lead to more money on private insurance claims for Covid cases as well. According to numerous and consistent reports on the web (that I just found in minutes of searching), that 'more money' flows because of provisions of the CARES Act. So this extra money for the providers is financed with our tax dollars. All the articles just I found about the extra money have asserted that there is no fraud i.e. providers claiming Covid diagnoses falsely. Anyone who believes such assertions about no fraud has not examined the business practices of health care providers as carefully as I have. If they can get away with it, and they usually can, they will claim fraudulently. Alert No. 2, mentioned in my previous post, makes it even easier, giving a 'free pass' from fraud accusations by allowing the assumption of Covid. So not only is inflating the Covid death counts in the US allowed, there is a financial incentive to do so under the CARES Act.

[2.50 a gallon]

The other countries count is less than a 100 compared to the US 1300.  You are saying somebody is untruthfully inflating the U.S. deaths by a thousand percent?

I don't think so!    

[d0nnivain]

1 hour ago, nospam99 said:

^^^ One more time (four months later and still true), CDC Covid-19 Alert No. 2 issued on March 24 allows ANY death to be 'assumed' caused by Covid. Do the other countries have a similar directive from their government? You can't compare 'apples and oranges'.

I thought it was if the patient had a positive Covid test but had a heart attack, for instance, then died, that person was counted on the the theory that if they hadn't had Covid they may have been stronger & more able to withstand the heart problem. 

I think I read somewhere that between 2.5 & 2.8 million people die each year in the US.  50% of those are from medical conditions not counting OLD age, so lets say 1.25 million die of medical conditions.  Here we have 170,000 who are being counted as Covid deaths in 6 months.  That's about 14% of the deaths & the year is not over.  Frankly I think the number is probably higher because there were many unreported deaths in the NY metro in the beginning of this thing where higher then normal numbers of people died alone & there was no ability to test the deceased for Covid.  That has to be going on in rural areas.  

While I don't doubt some of the financial incentive to claim a death as Covid related I doubt that is the bulk of the statistics.  Just because places like the VA presumptively conceded certain diagnosis like cancer & diabetes to Agent Orange exposure or drinking the water at Camp Lejeune in the 1950s - 1980s doesn't mean that people didn't get sick from those things even if they also smoked & ate sugary foods.  

[clia]

5 hours ago, Weezy1973 said:

Here’s covid-19 deaths yesterday:

Spain: 24
France: 17
Japan: 16
Canada: 13
UK: 12
Germany: 9

United States: 1,358

Population of countries above: 426 million
Population of United States: 328 million
 

Perspective for anybody that thinks the US “plan” is working.

You should probably be looking at the 7 day average, rather than cherry picking a day.  Yes, August 18 reported 1358, but August 17 reported 589 and August 16 reported 521.  (Which I will grant you is still worse than the countries you've listed.)  At any rate, the 7 day average for the US is at 1047 now, which seems vastly better than it as on April 17, where we were at 2250, or even April 25 when we were at 2178, or May 3, when we were at 1932.  So, yes, I would say things are looking up for us from a deaths perspective.  The states that are surging now (or perhaps I should say, were surging, since most appear to be on the downslope now), aren't experiencing anywhere near the number deaths that we saw in the Northeast.  

[lana-banana]

The Atlantic has an excellent article today on "long haul" cases---people who have survived COVID-19 but are experiencing significant effects even months later. The rate and extent of these cases appears to be much higher than with similar flu or coronaviruses.

[serial muse]

4 hours ago, nospam99 said:

^^^ One more time (four months later and still true), CDC Covid-19 Alert No. 2 issued on March 24 allows ANY death to be 'assumed' caused by Covid. Do the other countries have a similar directive from their government? You can't compare 'apples and oranges'.

Nope. This is incorrect and misleading! It does NOT allow "ANY" death to be "assumed" caused by COVID19.

Let's do links and facts. Here's the alert: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0aMmi5bjnfXwvUZDa8iv6sTPEyXu

The code states this (bolded emphasis mine):

Quote

What happens if certifiers report terms other than the suggested terms?

If a death certificate reports coronavirus without identifying a specific strain or explicitly specifying that it is not COVID-19, NCHS will ask the states to follow up to verify whether or not the coronavirus was COVID-19. As long as the phrase used indicates the 2019 coronavirus strain, NCHS expects to assign the new code. However, it is preferable and more straightforward for certifiers to use the standard terminology (COVID-19).

What happens if the terms reported on the death certificate indicate uncertainty?

If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be assigned the new ICD code. It Is not likely that NCHS will follow up on these cases. If “pending COVID-19 testing” is reported on the death certificate, this would be considered a pending record. In this scenario, NCHS would expect to receive an updated record, since the code will likely result in R99. In this case, NCHS will ask the states to follow up to verify if test results confirmed that the decedent had COVID-19.

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have causedor contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.

tl;dr: If the death is reported to be due to a coronavirus, either unspecified or not COVID19, states should double-check that it's not COVID19. If the death is pending COVID19 testing, they are classed as pending COVID19 testing.

If the death reports probable or likely COVID19, they are classed as COVID19. That can include the reporting doctor's assessment that COVID19 contributed to death. But does that mean that any death can be classified that way? No! It a) requires that a doctor make that assessment, and b) doctors are to include details of testing, medical records, etc.

 

For fun, here's some additional guidance on how doctors are to report causes of death in general. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covid-19.htm#understanding-death-data-quality

Note that CDC wants the same guidelines to apply to reporting COVID19 as cause of death (bolded emphasis mine). Which is, of course, how it should be. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

The money bit:
 

Quote

 

How Death Certificates Work

When a person dies, the cause of death is determined by the certifier – the physician, medical examiner, or coroner who reports it on the death certificate. States register all death certificates and send them to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), where they are used to produce the nation’s official death statistics.

Certifiers are asked to use their best medical judgment based on the available information and their expertise. When a definitive diagnosis cannot be made, but the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty, certifiers may include the terms “probable” or “presumed” in the cause-of-death statement.

Cause of Death and COVID-19

When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death on the death certificate, it is coded and counted as a death due to COVID-19. COVID-19 should not be reported on the death certificate if it did not cause or contribute to the death.

 

To sum up, this idea that we are potentially "overreporting" COVID19 deaths is not supported by facts. And in fact, data suggest we have been underreporting those deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

From March 1 to May 30, that study found, about 122,000 more people died in the US than is typical for that time of year, called "excess deaths". About 95,000 of those deaths have been officially attributed to COVID19. So there's a mysterious 28% of excess deaths during that time with no official cause. Coronavirus diagnostic tests were not yet widely available for a large part of that time in many states, and so deaths in those regions were not counted as coronavirus deaths. Furthermore, flu activity had fallen to historically low levels by March.

So I wonder what unknown thing might have killed 25,000+ people during that time? It sure is a mystery.

You do the math.

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by serial muse

[serial muse]

1 hour ago, clia said:

You should probably be looking at the 7 day average, rather than cherry picking a day.  Yes, August 18 reported 1358, but August 17 reported 589 and August 16 reported 521.  (Which I will grant you is still worse than the countries you've listed.)  At any rate, the 7 day average for the US is at 1047 now, which seems vastly better than it as on April 17, where we were at 2250, or even April 25 when we were at 2178, or May 3, when we were at 1932.  So, yes, I would say things are looking up for us from a deaths perspective.  The states that are surging now (or perhaps I should say, were surging, since most appear to be on the downslope now), aren't experiencing anywhere near the number deaths that we saw in the Northeast.  

Schools are reopening in many places, however. And we know there's several weeks of lag time between upticks in community exposure and rising death rates. I wouldn't get complacent about a downturn. This is very far from over.

Edited August 19, 2020 by serial muse

[serial muse]

Meanwhile, California announced today that it is severely shorthanded for fighting the raging wildfires in the state, because its front-line firefighters are prison inmates, and they're being ravaged by COVID19.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article243977827.htm

Quote

 

This week, state prison officials announced they had placed 12 of the state’s 43 inmate fire camps on lockdown due to a massive outbreak at a Northern California prison in Lassen County that serves as the training center for fire crews.

Until the lockdown lifts, only 30 of the state’s 77 inmate crews are available to fight a wildfire in the north state, prison officials said.

 

Cue that "this is fine" meme.

 

[elaine567]

38 minutes ago, serial muse said:

This is very far from over.

Scotland, from being in a great place with few new cases and no deaths from July, is experiencing fresh outbreaks, and according to the National Clinical Director today, hospitalised cases are now also rising... I guess to be followed by deaths in the next few weeks.
Opening up means the virus comes back...
Nothing has essentially changed, the virus is just out there waiting...

[BaileyB]

4 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

Scotland, from being in a great place with few new cases and no deaths from July, is experiencing fresh outbreaks, and according to the National Clinical Director today, hospitalised cases are now also rising... I guess to be followed by deaths in the next few weeks.
Opening up means the virus comes back...
Nothing has essentially changed, the virus is just out there waiting...

That is essentially what is happening where I live in Canada. We opened up this summer, there was some interprovincial travel, and our case numbers are rising accordingly... with fall and winter approaching, at my work we are now making plans for how we can work at home again this winter... and my family is already starting to tighten our social circles... school is the hot topic here now, with nobody able to predict what will happen in September. 

[Weezy1973]

6 hours ago, nospam99 said:

^^^ One more time (four months later and still true), CDC Covid-19 Alert No. 2 issued on March 24 allows ANY death to be 'assumed' caused by Covid. Do the other countries have a similar directive from their government? You can't compare 'apples and oranges'.

Not apples and oranges. The directive from all these governments follows the WHO guidelines. There are suspicions around a few countries (ex. Russia) that they are not reporting their deaths from Covid the same way.

 

Bottom line, compared to practically every other western democracy, the US is doing a terrible job. The death rate is declining, as it is everywhere, but the cases in the US is astronomical. Which of course is why there are so many more deaths.

[nospam99]

^^^ Oh? Do the WHO guidelines say to ASSUME deaths are covid? If so, I'd appreciate enough of a search argument to see those guidelines. It's easy to find the CDC Alert. Just search on 'cdc covid alert 2'.

[serial muse]

3 hours ago, nospam99 said:

^^^ Oh? Do the WHO guidelines say to ASSUME deaths are covid? If so, I'd appreciate enough of a search argument to see those guidelines. It's easy to find the CDC Alert. Just search on 'cdc covid alert 2'.

No need. I rebutted your post, above, and included a direct link to the CDC alert, which does not say to assume anything. Just a few posts up. Check it out.

Edited August 20, 2020 by serial muse

[Weezy1973]

8 hours ago, nospam99 said:

^^^ Oh? Do the WHO guidelines say to ASSUME deaths are covid? If so, I'd appreciate enough of a search argument to see those guidelines. It's easy to find the CDC Alert. Just search on 'cdc covid alert 2'.

This is the wording from the WHO. Basically says all deaths where somebody has tested positive for Covid will be categorized as Covid deaths regardless of underlying conditions. The only exception would be if there was clearly another cause of death such as trauma.

 

”2. DEFINITIONFORDEATHSDUETOCOVID-19
A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death.
A death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of preexisting conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.”

 

And all countries on the list are using this definition.

[schlumpy]

2 hours ago, Weezy1973 said:

And all countries on the list are using this definition.

All countries?

That's quite a leap of faith especially since it appears that the WHO can be bought.

[clia]

14 hours ago, elaine567 said:

Opening up means the virus comes back...
Nothing has essentially changed, the virus is just out there waiting...

Yes, exactly.  I've personally been kind of perplexed at the idea that we can eliminate the virus -- I've always just felt that it was going to have to run its course, and we would just have to find a way through it.  Viruses do what viruses do.  Seems like there have been increases in a number of locations around the world recently.

[clia]

14 hours ago, serial muse said:

Meanwhile, California announced today that it is severely shorthanded for fighting the raging wildfires in the state, because its front-line firefighters are prison inmates, and they're being ravaged by COVID19.

Wow, I had no idea California used prisoners to fight fires!  

[Weezy1973]

1 hour ago, schlumpy said:

All countries?

That's quite a leap of faith especially since it appears that the WHO can be bought.

Not all countries in the world, but for sure  the ones I listed in the stats above.

[Weezy1973]

The US will surpass Sweden today in per capita Covid deaths, and will top Italy in a few days. In two weeks they will pass Spain and the UK if numbers keep tracking.