Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[carhill]

14 minutes ago, pepperbird said:

as socialist as I am at heart, this is what will catch it up every time.     Human greed.

Others will argue 'free market'. However, in times of emergency, if declared as such, federal and state statutes come into play regarding products/services related to a declared emergency. It's entirely possible that Bezos isn't an enemy of greed and opportunism, rather is acting on statutes that govern his business.

[pepperbird]

16 minutes ago, NerdGoneWild said:

It is a natural assumption when I see an irrational response. 

so it's irrational to say people should be calm, not panic and not believe whatever nonsense comes down the social media pike?

[Libby1]

15 hours ago, gaius said:

There are many different coronaviruses and Lysol has been proven to kill one of them. From what I understand there is no evidence if it kills this strain or not.

With it's authoritarian tactics China has ground the virus spread almost to a halt while it seems the west, and the US especially, is unwilling to replicate it's tactics. It will be ironic if in a few months they ban US and Europeans from traveling there so we don't reinfect them.

I saw something today about new cases in China (but outside Wuhan) being attributed to Italy.

Being able to build a new hospital in a matter of days must have helped a lot.  When you look at other places where there's been a big outbreak, the difference in fatality rates is quite striking.  For instance, the fatality rate so far has been less than 1% in South Korea, but more than 3% in Italy.  South Korea has around 12 hospital beds per 1000 people whereas Italy has about 3 per 1000 (source, OECD...figures last updated in 2017).  

[RecentChange]

16 hours ago, Woggle said:

I just read the back of a bottle of lysol we have had for a few months and it says it is effective against human coronavirus so it seems this isn't a new thing. What is going on here?

Coronavirus has been around for a long time, strain 19 is a new one to humans. 

16 hours ago, gaius said:

There are many different coronaviruses and Lysol has been proven to kill one of them. From what I understand there is no evidence if it kills this strain or not.

There isn't any evidence that this novel strain is more resistant to disinfectants than other strains. Testing takes time, but the CDC has approved a number of Lysol products for use against "emerging viral pathogens" including the novel coronavirus.  It's a broad spectrum disinfectant and there is no reason to believe that it wouldn't be effective against this particular strain. 

FYI 60% alcohol is effective against coronavirus. 

[Watercolors]

1 hour ago, RecentChange said:

FYI 60% alcohol is effective against coronavirus. 

So, really any 12-pack of beer could work as a surface cleaner (each beer has 5% of alcohol content) if you run out of Lysol products. 

[simpycurious]

I wonder how many vacation plans are being altered especially out of the country plans?  I have changed mine

as of last week. 

[RecentChange]

3 minutes ago, Watercolors said:

So, really any 12-pack of beer could work as a surface cleaner (each beer has 5% of alcohol content) if you run out of Lysol products. 

Negative but Everclear, Bicardi 151, or some other over poof liquor would work.

That said, this virus is supposed to have a low viability rate on surfaces. 

It's covering your eyes and mouth around others that should be of more concern.

My immunologist friend recommended the following for riding public transit:

Gloves, wear them when out, avoid touching your face, and take them off as soon as you get to your home, office etc. 

Glasses or sunglasses to hopefully shield from cough particles. 

Covering your face with a scarf.  Not going to block everything, but will catch larger aresoles. 

Avoid eating out.

Shower often.

Wash outerwear / coats often. 

Avoid gyms, libraries etc, places with lots of people and circulated air. 

Carry hand sanitizer, or if you don't have any, 10% bleach - mix with water and paper towels, put in a baggie now you have your own sanitizer. 

That or everclear

And of course, wash your hands. 

[RecentChange]

3 minutes ago, simpycurious said:

I wonder how many vacation plans are being altered especially out of the country plans?  I have changed mine

as of last week. 

Our company has suspended business travel. A number of is were supposed to travel domestically for a meeting, and that has since been cancelled. 

[simpycurious]

Just now, RecentChange said:

Our company has suspended business travel. A number of is were supposed to travel domestically for a meeting, and that has since been cancelled. 

This seems to be happening with a great many US based firms.  It's going to hurt hotels, eateries, the airlines, the rental car folks, etc.  

[RecentChange]

6 minutes ago, simpycurious said:

This seems to be happening with a great many US based firms.  It's going to hurt hotels, eateries, the airlines, the rental car folks, etc.  

Yep, Facebook's largest conference is usually held in my city and has been last minute cancelled. Going to be a big hit to the hospitality industry. 

[pepperbird]

1 hour ago, RecentChange said:

Negative but Everclear, Bicardi 151, or some other over poof liquor would work.

That said, this virus is supposed to have a low viability rate on surfaces. 

It's covering your eyes and mouth around others that should be of more concern.

My immunologist friend recommended the following for riding public transit:

Gloves, wear them when out, avoid touching your face, and take them off as soon as you get to your home, office etc. 

Glasses or sunglasses to hopefully shield from cough particles. 

Covering your face with a scarf.  Not going to block everything, but will catch larger aresoles. 

Avoid eating out.

Shower often.

Wash outerwear / coats often. 

Avoid gyms, libraries etc, places with lots of people and circulated air. 

Carry hand sanitizer, or if you don't have any, 10% bleach - mix with water and paper towels, put in a baggie now you have your own sanitizer. 

That or everclear

And of course, wash your hands. 

i c an just picture someone taking that bottle of 151 overproof and going 'some for my hands, some for  me, some for my hands, some for me".🤣

[sothereiwas]

What people are buying: https://smile.amazon.com/Filtering-Anti-Pollution-Surgical-Disposable-Respirator/dp/B0851Y62YR

What people should be buying: https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B00QRELGEC

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 3/1/2020 at 7:49 PM, gaius said:

everyone else who's being directly effected by this virus  

Since you still don't seem to understand just what you're writing about.

 

Let me spell-out for you and for others that there has never been a soul on this planet who was effected by a virus.

 

(though I hesitate when pondering Jesus as a potential exception)

 

I think I've been reading in the news of late that "sex ed" might soon be mandatory in some areas.    Seems you might need it before tackling something as complex as a supervirus.

 

 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 3/2/2020 at 4:21 AM, contel3 said:

 Everyone's panicking, it's quite s***ty.

Of course everyone is panicking...  precisely because of fear mongering as offered by gaius and the like.

 

In Washington, 5 of 9 resultant deaths were connected to a retirement home.   3 of the others occured at a hospital approximately one mile from that retirement home.

The other death happened in a county that is as near as 4 miles away from that hospital and the retirement home.

 

What exactly are you going to DO as the result of the fear-mongering???   Get up and take off for somewhere else???

 

Just where are you going to go???    And how many of you will be transporting the deadly virus in the process??

 

South America has 440 million people...  8 confirmed cases... and zero deaths.

 

At what point should they  panic?

 

 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 3/2/2020 at 2:09 PM, RecentChange said:

 

In WA it's now coming to light that the virus has been there for weeks.

 

The first transporter passed through on January 15.  It is March (for crying out loud).  

 

If this thing were going to pass like a tidal wave over the whole of North (and South) American society, it would have had far more than a considerably localized impact by now.

 

The original traveler who brought it has already "recovered".

 

More people will probably be trampled to death in the toilet paper aisles, or in the 200+ people lines at Costco, than the virus itself will ever claim in North America.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by SincereOnlineGuy

[RecentChange]

1 hour ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

 

The first transporter passed through on January 15.  It is March (for crying out loud).  

 

If this thing were going to pass like a tidal wave over the whole of North (and South) American society, it would have had far more than a considerably localized impact by now.

The original traveler who brought it has already "recovered".

More people will probably be trampled to death in the toilet paper aisles, or in the 200+ people lines at Costco, than the virus itself will ever claim in North America.

I agree with you. This flu has a 2% mortality rate. And the people who died in Washington? Not just a retirement home, but a skilled nursing facility.  Those are for people in poor health who need daily medical attention. Any ideas of how many die in skilled nursing facilities due to the flu each year? 

I don't have the figures - but I know my friend who was in a skilled nursing facility during his end stage cancer was warned by the head nurse "with winter comes flu season, and people in the facility get sick and die".

I am in silicon valley - lots of international travel here. I happen to know a handful of people who work in the tech industry - meeting with international clients regularly etc, and a good number of them got a "upper respiratory flu" this season, well before there was any coronavirus scare - makes you wonder. 

And I can't for the life of me understand why people are stocking up on toilet paper and water.... Do they think the municipal water is going to get contaminated or shut off?? Why toilet paper? Why is that a priority? Just nuts. 

 

Edited to add, a quick Google search brings up a US national library of medicine - national institute of health study on influenza in nursing homes...

15 deaths per 1,000 annually due to influenza.

Edited March 4, 2020 by RecentChange

[SincereOnlineGuy]

10 minutes ago, RecentChange said:

 

And I can't for the life of me understand why people are stocking up on toilet paper and water.... Do they think the municipal water is going to get contaminated or shut off?? Why toilet paper? Why is that a priority? Just nuts. 

 

**** I made my TP reference just to indulge the (m)asses.

 

(but it was already posted when I saw your reference here, but I didn't care, so I left it)

 

BUT  (no pun intended ???)   I did not ever  "stock-up"  (except by accident)

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by SincereOnlineGuy

[RecentChange]

Literally, I when I went to the store this weekend people were cleaning the place out of not only cleaning solutions, but toilet paper and water. I can kinda understand disinfectant, but toilet paper boggles the mind. 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

(for the statistically literate)

AS OF 7:40pm eastern time on March 3, 2020.

 

There have been NINE coronavirus deaths in all of North America.

ALL NINE were connected within a TWO-mile radius of one another!

 

Five were connected with the LifeCare retirement center, and the other 4 deaths all occurred at Evergreen Health Hospital which is within TWO MILES of the LifeCare center.

 

The Snohomish County death, per their health dept. website  (  https://www.snohd.org/484/Novel-Coronavirus-2019 )... actually occurred in King County (Seattle's county).

 

North Carolina just declared its first reported case... (in a person who had traveled to WA AND visited the LifeCare center).

 

Now do you want to live your life guided by  factual reality?   Or would you prefer to listen to people who believe that humans are created by viruses...

 

(I'm off to count my rolls of TP on hand...  {merely by coincidence} ... )   (and they're the kind where  "One square = 36 traditional rolls",  so I'm set)

 

In other news, a tornado claimed 25 lives in Tennessee...   which is nearly 3 times the lethal effect of coronavirus on North America at this time.

 

If you're not statistically literate then I don't know how to help you...     and surely the TV networks won't do anything to assist, as they continue to fuel the flames, rather than explore the facts.

(* I had this post written minutes ago, but maybe I accidentally deleted it??)

Edited March 4, 2020 by SincereOnlineGuy

[Woggle]

Maybe they think that one of the symptoms is Diarrhea. 

[gaius]

3 hours ago, RecentChange said:

Edited to add, a quick Google search brings up a US national library of medicine - national institute of health study on influenza in nursing homes...

15 deaths per 1,000 annually due to influenza.

Ok, so that would be a 1.5% influenza death rate. There have been 14 diagnosed cases of coronavirus to come out of the Seattle nursing home and 8 have died so far. For a 57% death rate. Assuming that none of those 14 cases were younger staff. Because if any were the rate would be even higher.

Many of the older folks who died in China were not in nursing homes. They were often still working, healthy individuals. This is not the flu.

Edited March 4, 2020 by gaius

[SincereOnlineGuy]

52 minutes ago, gaius said:

 There have been 14 diagnosed cases of coronavirus to come out of the Seattle nursing home and 8 have died so far. For a 57% death rate. 

More misinformation, just for your own entertainment, we're sure.

 

There remain five deaths from coronavirus connected to the nursing home near Seattle.   Just one of those occurring in someone under age 70.

 

The other four, not seemingly connected to the nursing home, died at a hospital a mile or two from said nursing home.

 

 

Side note:  Anyone at the Space Needle near central Seattle is approximately ten miles  from this Bermuda triangle of coronavirus.

 

 

[gaius]

32 minutes ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

More misinformation, just for your own entertainment, we're sure.

 

There remain five deaths from coronavirus connected to the nursing home near Seattle.   Just one of those occurring in someone under age 70.

 

The other four, not seemingly connected to the nursing home, died at a hospital a mile or two from said nursing home.

 

 

Side note:  Anyone at the Space Needle near central Seattle is approximately ten miles  from this Bermuda triangle of coronavirus.

 

 

I actually couldn't find a straightforward count, it seemed to range from 4 to 6 with a few others in critical condition. Even assuming nobody else dies and it's 4 that's still an almost 30% death rate. Compared to 1.5% for influenza.

You really hit it out of the park with that whole it's no big deal if it gets into nursing homes line of thinking Sincere.

[serial muse]

Current global death rate is estimated at 2.3% (compared to 0.1% for flu, although the absolute flu deaths are higher bc so many more cases). 

That 2.3% number is in flux though. Also, it's not representative of everybody: children, teens and young adults appear to have lower mortality for this coronavirus.

[gaius]

The WHO director gave a press conference yesterday and upped the death rate to 3.4%, along with playing down the comparisons to influenza.

"This virus is not SARS, it's not MERS, and it's not influenza," Ghebreyesus said in a press conference on Tuesday. "It is a unique virus with unique characteristics." 

The most crucial difference between the flu and the coronavirus is that the latter is far more deadly. Whereas approximately 0.1% of people who get the flu die, the coronavirus' mortality rate is about 3.4%, the WHO confirmed on Tuesday.