Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[gaius]

I think a lot of people are used to seeing news stories about one disease outbreak or another from China, and then nothing happening. So there isn't much pressure at the moment to take stronger action. They've been trained to expect the same result. Plus Kobe Bryant just died so that's drowning out a lot of news about coronavirus.

The ugly truth though is that at this point we're operating on a luck based strategy. Only voluntary isolation of people who might be infected, despite the fact the virus transmits before symptoms even show. If one of our cities got hit like Wuhan our health officials wouldn't be able to do any better. In fact, since we don't live in a dictatorship it's likely they'd do worse. There would probably be an almost instant exodus of many potentially infected people and the steps China has implemented to stop the spread in Wuhan would be strongly challenged here.

I guess the woman in Minnesota who they didn't catch for over a week fortunately was a home body and didn't go out really after she got back. If she behaved like that doctor with Ebola did in New York Minneapolis might already be another Wuhan. We just lucked out. Hopefully our lucky streak will continue.

[gaius]

^ I was reading something else about Minnesota, pulled a Joe Biden and mixed that up with the coronavirus case in Chicago. Minnesota hasn't been hit yet. That we know about. 😐

[pepperbird]

2 hours ago, gaius said:

From what I read, the CDC estimates 15 million people have gotten the flu this season in the US, and 8,600 have died. Which would be about an .05% death rate. 

According to the Chinese numbers for coronavirus, the death rate so far is about 2.5%. Since the virus kills by causing pneumonia, which takes a while, it's likely more people who are currently infected will die and push that number up. But it's also likely there are a lot more cases than officially diagnosed. Or deaths that haven't been reported. So the death rate could end up anywhere between <1% and over 5%.

So probably not the apocalypse. But considering the death rate of it's sibling SARS was almost 10% I would be surprised if it ends up so low as to compare to the flu. It's highly likely that if it does start to mass infect people in a country outside China, especially in a big city, it will cause significant short term instability and impact many families. If only the entire population of New York ended up infected at 2.5%, over 200,000 people would be dead. Making 9/11 look like chump change.

Rabies kills more people every year, ( over 50,000) according to the WHO "140 000 people died from measles in 2018" yet no one really seems to. care. Mother nature is alive, well and kicking @ss.

[Libby1]

2 hours ago, gaius said:

From what I read, the CDC estimates 15 million people have gotten the flu this season in the US, and 8,600 have died. Which would be about an .05% death rate. 

According to the Chinese numbers for coronavirus, the death rate so far is about 2.5%. Since the virus kills by causing pneumonia, which takes a while, it's likely more people who are currently infected will die and push that number up. But it's also likely there are a lot more cases than officially diagnosed. Or deaths that haven't been reported. So the death rate could end up anywhere between <1% and over 5%.

So probably not the apocalypse. But considering the death rate of it's sibling SARS was almost 10% I would be surprised if it ends up so low as to compare to the flu. 

That's true.  The main concern with this one, compared to SARS, is the ability for a person to be infectious for a fairly long period without showing symptoms.   I know it sounds like a racist cliche to talk about people in China being willing to eat anything, but the fact remains that it's not unusual for some of these markets to sell meat from wild omnivores and carnivores for human consumption.  That ramps up the potential for a virus-carrying bat to end up being consumed one way or another by a human being.  

[2BGoodAgain]

you're more likely to catch a cold... or a STD...

[pepperbird]

On 1/25/2020 at 8:19 PM, major_merrick said:

I tend to agree with that line of thinking.  I wonder if the thing is being used as a test to simulate something more deadly.  "Lets see what happens to the monkeys when we introduce this...."  And we're the monkeys.  And if a few die?  Well, that doesn't bother TPTB, because we-the-people are expendable. 

Well we won't be eating dinner anytime soon.  I'm the unvaccinated Blonde Plague. 😎  As far as I know, folks who've never had measles aren't the ones spreading it.  And it pops up in areas where people are all vaccinated, and even the vaccinated ones get it sometimes.  Again, with all these weird labs out there, it makes me wonder what else is going on that we aren't being told.  Something REALLY doesn't add up. 

But "civilized" societies long ago gave their governments the power to play with bacteria and viruses at will.  And we wonder why these things get out?  Someday some bio-weapon will get released either on purpose or accidentally, and we'll have mass fatalities across the globe.  I'm kinda surprised it hasn't happened already. 

redacted- have a great day

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by pepperbird

[major_merrick]

Sobering personal news today:

One of my husband's close friends is originally from China.  He works in viral research in the US now, but most of his family is still in China.  Wuhan is his hometown.  His family informed him that the situation is more serious than China is letting on.  The military is involved in quarantine operations (his father-in-law is a general in the PLA).  His parents are sick, but may recover.  His grandparents are both dead from the virus.  His uncle and cousin are sick, and his aunt is in critical condition and will probably die .  There is no room in the hospitals for them, and people are laying outside dying on the ground attempting to get in. 

Perhaps this thing is worse than we thought?  We will know soon.  With an incubation period of 11-14 days, sick folks can spread it a long time before they realize they have it.  And we've been bringing people home from China without quarantine procedures.  Not good. 

My husband came home with a truckload of supplies today - mostly convenience items since we produce our own basics and have plenty on hand.  He's preparing for our family to stay home for 6 months if necessary.  Tonight he's meeting with our county's Defense Board to discuss emergency preparations, and my mother-in-law has gone along to give medical advice. 

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

16 minutes ago, major_merrick said:

His grandparents are both dead from the virus.  His uncle and cousin are sick, and his aunt is in critical condition and will probably die .  There is no room in the hospitals for them, and people are laying outside dying on the ground attempting to get in. 

Perhaps this thing is worse than we thought?  We will know soon.  With an incubation period of 11-14 days, sick folks can spread it a long time before they realize they have it.

Really sad about these people :(.

I do think if anything's gonna "get us" it will be sneaking up like this because we are complacent.  You are right....time will tell. 

I'm flying on Feb. 14 and my mom started telling me two days ago to buy a mask....

[major_merrick]

@CautiouslyOptimistic If I were you, I would cancel any non-essential travel and do essential travel by car if possible.  And make sure to sanitize the gas pump handles. 

I'm still hoping this thing stays put, but IDK.  China also doesn't have the best medical care.  

My husband told me tonight that local supplies of N95 masks are almost gone.  He bought up most of what was left to increase the supply for our security force.  All the elderberry tincture/pills are gone too (antiviral treatment).  If we don't use it this time, there's always something new.  😖

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

9 minutes ago, major_merrick said:

@CautiouslyOptimistic If I were you, I would cancel any non-essential travel and do essential travel by car if possible.  And make sure to sanitize the gas pump handles. 

 

My identical twin moved across the country 2.5 years ago and she's in a miserable marriage (but has great kids).  I feel like this girls trip is essential. I will keep watching the news, though!  

[major_merrick]

@CautiouslyOptimistic I hope you stay safe on your trip.  I know how having a sister a long ways off feels!  My sister is in prison 4 hours away and I can't stand it. 

 

[gaius]

Wear a mask, bring as much hand sanitizer as the TSA will let you get away with, wash hands and use that as often as you can.

Not that an outbreak is guaranteed but that's the smart thing at this point.

[Libby1]

With Wuhan in lockdown, it's hard to see how the authorities can have much of a handle on infection rates.  When you look at videos of Wuhan right now, there aren't ambulances whizzing around as you'd expect to see.  Presumably most people are having to make their own way to hospital.  Or they're staying at home and, if they've come down with an infection, are just waiting it out as you usually would if you caught a nasty cold/bout of the flu.  In which case they can't receive an official diagnosis.  Or, in the case of elderly and the frail, dying at home.

China reported several outbreaks of pneumonia to the who on 31st December.   The first reported death was on 11th January.  Whatever the experts might already know about this situation, I don't think the public will get anything like an accurate picture until this spreads more widely outside China, which seems an inevitability at this point since there are now more than 40 confirmed cases outside China.

[gaius]

The UK and Australia have finally decided to quarantine returning citizens from Wuhan for 2 weeks. The US arranged charter flight from Wuhan has been diverted to a military base and the CDC announced they'll be quarantined for at least 3 days. Continuing the American rabbit foot strategy of dealing with the virus.

Trump is considering cancelling all direct flights to China from the US, but that would just cause people to switch flights. We should continue the direct flights and start quarantining anyone who's been in China in the last 2 weeks for the remainder of the 2 week period. And expand that to any other country that starts experiencing a significant amount of cases.

[elaine567]

UK returning citizens on Thursday flight(s) will be quarantined for 2 weeks according to reports.

[major_merrick]

Thank God they are starting to quarantine, but I suspect the horse is out of the barn at this point. 

The problem now is that the "normalcy bias" will keep people wanting to go to work and do their thing until it really hits the fan.  For example, my county has a river on two sides, and a rough area with minimal population on the other side.  If the sheriff locked it down now and deployed our defense forces, we could easily keep everybody from the more populated counties across the river out of here.  That would maintain our area as an infection-free zone.  But we'd have to do that NOW.  Since the incubation period is so long, the virus has a good chance of spreading so far that by the time it presents itself, it may be too late to lock down our area.  Yet average people who work in the cities can't just stop work and stay home, and would complain LOUDLY if we locked down our bridges so they couldn't commute in and out at will.  There aren't enough cases in the US right now that would justify such a drastic action in the eyes of the public.  By the time there are enough, we know it is already here among us. 

[jeff0011]

On 1/25/2020 at 12:31 PM, pepperbird said:

meh, I have to wear one every time I go out because some antivaxers didn't want to get their kids jabbed and now we have outbreaks of measles and mumps. you get used to it.

Aren’t you vaccinated against it?  You should be fine.  I think there were an entire 79 cases last year in the USA lol. Mainly from people who brought it from third works nations.  

Edited January 29, 2020 by jeff0011

[pepperbird]

4 hours ago, jeff0011 said:

Aren’t you vaccinated against it?  You should be fine.  I think there were an entire 79 cases last year in the USA lol. Mainly from people who brought it from third works nations.  

did you even read what I wrote? I can't be vaccinated. I'm already sick, and the immunosupressants I take keep me alive. Vaccines would make me really sick.

Oh- China isn't a "third world nation", and the people who are spreading it internationally are wealthy enough to fly.

[jeff0011]

Ok.  Well you should still be safe.  79 cases in 400 million.  I wouldn’t worry about clean anti vaxxers as much as open borders. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by jeff0011

[elaine567]

This is the Wuhan Coronavirus thread.
There is NO vaccine.

[Libby1]

32 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

This is the Wuhan Coronavirus thread.
There is NO vaccine.

They're working on one, and it sounds as though Australian scientists have made some good recent progress...but it would probably take months for it to be ready and available for widespread use.  Meantime, there are now almost 7,200 cases globally, with the vast majority in China, and according to CNN 170 confirmed fatalities - all in China, as far as I know.  If these rates continue, in a week's time the death rate will have overtaken the SARS outbreak of 2003.  We're going to have to hope that the other countries it's spread to can contain it effectively, since by this point it's pretty obviously out of control in China.

 

[major_merrick]

There won't be a vaccine for up to a year, according to some companies.

UPDATES:

It is here in the South now.  My MIL just called, and there's a case confirmed in Arkansas, and two more suspected cases in Oklahoma.  Some possible cases in Texas tested negative, but there may be others. 

In the Wuhan area, my husband's friend estimates from reports by his family that the numbers China has provided are totally false.  Closer to 2+ million possibly infected, and perhaps 100k dead. 

My perspective:

So far, the lethality rate seems to be about  3% or perhaps 5%.  If 2-3 million are infected in the Wuhan area, then 100k dead is a reasonable estimate.  The Spanish Flu of 1918 had a similar lethality rate.  SARS was about 10%, so this isn't quite as bad, but it seems to be spreading farther.  The Spanish flu killed approximately 675k Americans out of an estimated population of 104 million.  According to current estimates, the US population today is around 330 million.  If people die at a similar rate to the Spanish Flu (assuming the rate of infection is the same) we could expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.  That will be more than heart disease, cancer, and accidents combined.  Compare that to the seasonal flu which kills perhaps 80k annually, and deaths from all causes combined in the US total about 2.5 - 2.8 million. 

So, if this thing goes nationwide, the funeral industry may be about twice as busy as usual.  I kind of doubt that this is the new Black Death, but I'm still staying home.

Edited January 30, 2020 by major_merrick

[major_merrick]

Hmm.... this article claims an 11% mortality rate.  But limited sample.

https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf

[carhill]

Yep and it's already exceeded total SARS cases in China. Not good.

[pepperbird]

I'm away visiting some family, and here, there's more people wearing face mask than I used to see. I always saw a few, but this time, there's many more. There's been a few cases in the city, one man hospitalized then sent home, his wife recovered at home.

One thing about this city that makes it especially susceptible to a pandemic is in winter, it's so bloody cold! Everyone is stuck indoors, and the recycled air/ close proximity to others is a fertile ground for disease. This being said, it learned a lot from SARS. It knows what to do, when to do it and how. They've damned well practiced enough...🤣