Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[carhill]

One doctor's life...

 

[RecentChange]

Regular ol' flu's can often be transmitted a day before symptoms appear.

[Piddy]

2 hours ago, carhill said:

One doctor's life...

 

I just read about this online.  He was punished by the police for raising concerns publicly. 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Piddy

[Libby1]

According to BNO news updates there are now 61 confirmed cases aboard the cruise ship near Tokyo (I think that's the Diamond Princess).  Obviously the circumstances there are different from the norm in that cruise ships are terrible for passing on viruses, despite all the hand sanitisers outside eating areas - plus they'll have been testing absolutely everybody on board and it could well be that a lot of those confirmed cases are people who aren't showing severe, or even any,  symptoms.  As it usually seems to go with viruses that can absolutely floor one person and leave the next person with barely a sniffle.  Still really concerning though, if this virus really does have a fatality rate of 2%.  I wonder what happens now.  Presumably they have to take the confirmed cases off the ship and quarantine them elsewhere...but how long do they keep everybody else quarantined on there?  

Edited February 7, 2020 by Libby1

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 1/24/2020 at 12:53 PM, pepperbird said:

more people have already died in the past 12 months from rabies. the same is true for seasonal influenza, HIV, viral hepatitis and various forms of viral encephalitis.
I'm not saying the corona virus isn't cause for concern, but the panic is unwarranted.

 

Except that  '12 months' is irrelevant to all of this.

 

nice try though!

 

 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 2/2/2020 at 5:28 PM, gaius said:

Well I'm glad you've gone 40 years without getting AIDS sincere, and that jspice has avoided getting the bubonic plague, herpes, whooping cough, salmonella poisoning, schizophrenia, the seven year itch and all the other things he listed in his world travels, but all that's pretty irrelevant to what's happening right now. 

Right now, we let many plane fulls of people who might be infected into the country, and who might infect others in the coming weeks. Or maybe we'll get lucky and they won't. Do whatever you feel is best. But as a guy who remembers what happened 40 years ago, you'll be the worst off if the worst does happen.

 

LOL - talk about irrelevant.      We  have   "let many plane fulls of people who might be infected into the country" almost every day for many decades now.

They always  "might infect others".

 

 

 

 

 

[mark clemson]

Some perspective on this, since for now it seems to be muted in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

[Marc878]

5 hours ago, carhill said:

One doctor's life...

 

Pretty disturbing. Worthy of caution.

[gaius]

At least with it getting on a cruise ship we should get a much better idea of how bad the virus actually is. It's a fishbowl where everyone is being tested so the whole x factor of mild cases that haven't been diagnosed won't be an issue. Plus since it's anchored in Japan the medical staff won't be overwhelmed like they are in Wuhan.

The latest NYTimes numbers I read said the death rate in Wuhan is 4.1%, with 14% of cases going critical. But they're also apparently not counting people who die before being officially diagnosed as victims, so who really knows.

 

[gaius]

4 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

 

LOL - talk about irrelevant.      We  have   "let many plane fulls of people who might be infected into the country" almost every day for many decades now.

They always  "might infect others".

If you think the correct response to all the preliminary information about coronavirus is to sit in a rocking chair on your porch and wax poetic about HIV then rock on my friend.

Nobody here is trying to stop you.

[Libby1]

3 hours ago, gaius said:

At least with it getting on a cruise ship we should get a much better idea of how bad the virus actually is. It's a fishbowl where everyone is being tested so the whole x factor of mild cases that haven't been diagnosed won't be an issue. Plus since it's anchored in Japan the medical staff won't be overwhelmed like they are in Wuhan.

 

Horrific for the people on board, though. Especially those in the small interior cabins.  At least those with the balconies could get some light and fresh air when they need it.  From what this guy says, they can go out on their balconies when they want.   Passengers in the interior cabins are allowed 90 minutes fresh air a day.  

 

[pepperbird]

5 hours ago, gaius said:

At least with it getting on a cruise ship we should get a much better idea of how bad the virus actually is. It's a fishbowl where everyone is being tested so the whole x factor of mild cases that haven't been diagnosed won't be an issue. Plus since it's anchored in Japan the medical staff won't be overwhelmed like they are in Wuhan.

The latest NYTimes numbers I read said the death rate in Wuhan is 4.1%, with 14% of cases going critical. But they're also apparently not counting people who die before being officially diagnosed as victims, so who really knows.

 

they also aren't counting the cases hat just present as a bad cold or flu. When SARS hit up here, there's a strong suspicion it was more widespread that anyone knew. These milder cases weren't reported, and someone would have to have been at death's door before they went tot he ER in ontario with many sort of symptoms indicative of SARS as they'd likely be quarantined.

[pepperbird]

9 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

 

Except that  '12 months' is irrelevant to all of this.

 

nice try though!

 

 

In a country with how many billion people, a couple of hundred have died?
Sorry but I'm not going into panic mode over that.

[major_merrick]

19 hours ago, pepperbird said:

In a country with how many billion people, a couple of hundred have died?
Sorry but I'm not going into panic mode over that.

Except that the numbers they are publishing are all a lie....typical for a dictatorship.  From my personal sources, it is much more widespread, although it seems to be pretty well confined to Asia right now. 

[pepperbird]

13 hours ago, major_merrick said:

Except that the numbers they are publishing are all a lie....typical for a dictatorship.  From my personal sources, it is much more widespread, although it seems to be pretty well confined to Asia right now. 

If this is what you're hearing, no offence, but your sources suck. Seriously-I'm not just saying that. They also seem to have to idea how world travel works. There is no such thing as "confined to Asia".

[pepperbird]

21 minutes ago, preraph said:

It's on the news every day in the U.S. and some quarantines on travelers, but no U.S. outbreak yet.  I'm for closing down all travel in and out for now.  We can control it if we do that.  Now. 

 

That said, we pay far less attention to other epidemics, such as drug overdoes deaths, 70,000 in 2017, which is all twisted together with the homeless epidemic and mental health epidemic.  And we're doing very little about that.  

https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html

Dr. Drew on homelessness, drug and mental illness epidemic in LA.  

 

An epidemic of disease is "easy" if you know what I mean. It comes, measures get put into place, it passes, people learn and move on. It gets lots of media attention because it's new and exciting- a huge amount of money will be spent, and then, when the kerfluffle is over, those old epidemics you mentioned will still be there.

What's the saying about one death being tragic and a million a statistic?
 

[major_merrick]

1 hour ago, pepperbird said:

If this is what you're hearing, no offence, but your sources suck. Seriously-I'm not just saying that. They also seem to have to idea how world travel works. There is no such thing as "confined to Asia".

Considering that my sources used to LIVE there, have family still living there, and are in the medical profession and the military.... pretty sure the info is good.  You can't believe the media.  Ever.  The CDC, the WHO, and their kind will continue to do the "stay calm, everything's OK" routine no matter what.  And that's nothing compared to what happens in a dictatorship like China.  I believe that what has contained this so far is a very strong response by the Chinese military.  You don't quarantine a zone of 50 million people and shoot escapees on sight because of a couple thousand cases and a handful of deaths....so it is bigger than what they have admitted.

[Libby1]

3 hours ago, pepperbird said:

If this is what you're hearing, no offence, but your sources suck. Seriously-I'm not just saying that. 

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding.  Are you saying that you believe the official figures that the Chinese Government are releasing?  Do you trust the Chinese Government?  All the mainstream news outlets I'm seeing - across the board, politically - are treating the notorious secretiveness and the suppression of free speech in China as a major aspect of/contributory problem towards this story.  

[pepperbird]

15 hours ago, Libby1 said:

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding.  Are you saying that you believe the official figures that the Chinese Government are releasing?  Do you trust the Chinese Government?  All the mainstream news outlets I'm seeing - across the board, politically - are treating the notorious secretiveness and the suppression of free speech in China as a major aspect of/contributory problem towards this story.  

I was referring to MM's  "personal sources". 
I put my faith in science and trust my own ability to understand basic epidemiological reporting as oppressed to paranoia,  Anecdotes and "I've heard from someone who lives there" is not hard evidence. It's just as bad as what's in mass media-just like that old "telephone game" kids play. Each time the story gets passed, it gets changed a bit. Not on purpose, it's just the nature of things.

Mind you, I;m just as guilty of doing the same thing . It's really easy to get bogged down in "I heard from someone who heard from someone who heard from someone".

[nospam99]

Unfortunately, the 'telephone game' is now a more reliable source of information that anything the media, US or local government, or a corporation or college might assert. One litmus test I have now - if BOTH Fox and CNN report the same thing, I give it some credibility.

[preraph]

No one knows what's happening in China really.  Probably not even the Chinese.  Countries need to rely on their own national security to protect themselves from this.  For all we know, it could be how China intends to wipe out the competition.

[pepperbird]

2 hours ago, preraph said:

No one knows what's happening in China really.  Probably not even the Chinese.  Countries need to rely on their own national security to protect themselves from this.  For all we know, it could be how China intends to wipe out the competition.

The information I've heard out of China is from the students who go to university with my daughters. I feel awful for them! They are worried about their families, and right now, they can't go home.  I don't know if that means they aren't allowed to or they just don't think it's a good idea.

so far, no fatalities here. I know of at least one hospitalization up at Sunnybrook, but that's about it. I have a feeling that the same thing is happening as with SARS- people won't seek medical help unless they are at death's door.

[pepperbird]

2 hours ago, preraph said:

No one knows what's happening in China really.  Probably not even the Chinese.  Countries need to rely on their own national security to protect themselves from this.  For all we know, it could be how China intends to wipe out the competition.

It's a horrible to think, but it could even be it's own government engaging in some population control. That doesn't really make a lot of sense, but a lot of what the Chinese government does doesn't make any sense.

[preraph]

It's not out of the question.  Likely not, but again, we just can't know.  So every country just needs to take care of their ports.  And remember this is a huge ask because we import so many goods.  It's not impossible they could be contaminated. Doesn't sound like they know much about this virus.  Like how long is it live on an object?  

[major_merrick]

14 hours ago, pepperbird said:

I was referring to MM's  "personal sources". 
I put my faith in science and trust my own ability to understand basic epidemiological reporting as oppressed to paranoia,  Anecdotes and "I've heard from someone who lives there" is not hard evidence. It's just as bad as what's in mass media-just like that old "telephone game" kids play. Each time the story gets passed, it gets changed a bit. Not on purpose, it's just the nature of things.

Mind you, I;m just as guilty of doing the same thing . It's really easy to get bogged down in "I heard from someone who heard from someone who heard from someone".

I know that some prefer "official" types.  But my source in this case IS a scientist, and his field of study is viruses - how to develop, contain, and vaccinate.  He and I don't see eye-to-eye on everything, but he's more skeptical and independent than most.  He's interpreting the information he gets from people who are living in the quarantine zone.  He and my husband are good friends, and I'm acquainted with him well enough to know that by his personality he's actually understating what he knows.  He's been worried enough he has considered sending his wife and kids to live with us while he continues to work, just in case this thing spreads.  He's a very calm, collected, intelligent person.  When someone like him starts preparing for the worst-case-scenario, I take notice. 

When governments twist most evidence and simply refuse to reveal other evidence, secondhand information is about the best anybody can get.  Yeah, there's the "telephone game" issue.  I don't deny that.  But consider that you have the same issue (except even worse) with your official sources and scientists.  That information is passed through so many filters it is unreal.