lurker74 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, Cookiesandough said: There is no shortage of food though, so people looting and killing to avoid an illness that’s mortality rate is decreasing as daily as testing is increasing will just be natural selection at its finest There's no shortage today. Please don't get me wrong, I don't really believe that the US will devolve so quickly as to generally make protecting your family from physical threats a necessity. But I also know that it's not as far away as some might think. New York City is, at any given point, about three days away from starting to starve to death. It relies on trucking, which is actually becoming more scarce itself. The rest of the US has always been a Just In Time food infrastructure system, at least for the last ~30 years. That means at any given point, you're less than two weeks away from seeing your last meat in the grocery store for an extended period of time. Even today, many grocery stores lack meat as buying goes up. Another panic combined with trucking shortage and suddenly you have to live with what you have for 30 days or more. Truth be told, most Americans would do well with being forced to live on 2000 calories a day but it will cause panic. And, the panic could be around the corner...April's jobless claims numbers are rumored to be horrific. The Federal government has already told states not to release numbers so that they can manage the release of information better. I've seen estimates of jobless claims in April being between 500,000 and 5 million. For context, the worst month in 2008 was 800,000. If we touch 7 figures, there will be panic. None of this is meant to scare anyone. But it does mean that we may not be through this yet and you should do what is legal and moral to protect you and your family. Prepare for the worse while hoping for the best, help your neighbors, and tell your loved ones you love them - not because you'll lose them but because we all need to hear that now. OK, off my soapbox. Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, lurker74 said: There's no shortage today. Please don't get me wrong, I don't really believe that the US will devolve so quickly as to generally make protecting your family from physical threats a necessity. But I also know that it's not as far away as some might think. New York City is, at any given point, about three days away from starting to starve to death. It relies on trucking, which is actually becoming more scarce itself. The rest of the US has always been a Just In Time food infrastructure system, at least for the last ~30 years. That means at any given point, you're less than two weeks away from seeing your last meat in the grocery store for an extended period of time. Even today, many grocery stores lack meat as buying goes up. Another panic combined with trucking shortage and suddenly you have to live with what you have for 30 days or more. Truth be told, most Americans would do well with being forced to live on 2000 calories a day but it will cause panic. And, the panic could be around the corner...April's jobless claims numbers are rumored to be horrific. The Federal government has already told states not to release numbers so that they can manage the release of information better. I've seen estimates of jobless claims in April being between 500,000 and 5 million. For context, the worst month in 2008 was 800,000. If we touch 7 figures, there will be panic. None of this is meant to scare anyone. But it does mean that we may not be through this yet and you should do what is legal and moral to protect you and your family. Prepare for the worse while hoping for the best, help your neighbors, and tell your loved ones you love them - not because you'll lose them but because we all need to hear that now. OK, off my soapbox. Lurker, I am not disputing what you are saying but I am an optimist (I see the glass half full as opposed to half empty). I believe in this country (US), I believe in the human spirit, and I believe WE (the human race) will win this battle. Will there be some tough times, rough patches, scraps and bruises along the way YES. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Miss Spider Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, lurker74 said: There's no shortage today. Please don't get me wrong, I don't really believe that the US will devolve so quickly as to generally make protecting your family from physical threats a necessity. But I also know that it's not as far away as some might think. New York City is, at any given point, about three days away from starting to starve to death. It relies on trucking, which is actually becoming more scarce itself. The rest of the US has always been a Just In Time food infrastructure system, at least for the last ~30 years. That means at any given point, you're less than two weeks away from seeing your last meat in the grocery store for an extended period of time. Even today, many grocery stores lack meat as buying goes up. Another panic combined with trucking shortage and suddenly you have to live with what you have for 30 days or more. Truth be told, most Americans would do well with being forced to live on 2000 calories a day but it will cause panic. And, the panic could be around the corner...April's jobless claims numbers are rumored to be horrific. The Federal government has already told states not to release numbers so that they can manage the release of information better. I've seen estimates of jobless claims in April being between 500,000 and 5 million. For context, the worst month in 2008 was 800,000. If we touch 7 figures, there will be panic. None of this is meant to scare anyone. But it does mean that we may not be through this yet and you should do what is legal and moral to protect you and your family. Prepare for the worse while hoping for the best, help your neighbors, and tell your loved ones you love them - not because you'll lose them but because we all need to hear that now. OK, off my soapbox. I’m sorry, just no. We have plenty of food in our country. What you’re talking about is momentary supply challenges due to people panicking and buying out too much stuff. But even with the panic and the challenge of hiring more people temporarily , there is no cause to believe anyone in America won’t have access to food for this reason ... But just for fun, consider the absurdity of it if it did cause mass starvation. To avoid catching a virus that quite possibly could have mortality rate only a little higher than the flu even at presejt . With more testing being done, we are seeing a lot of people are asymptomatic or symptoms mild enough to not know they have it. Edited March 21, 2020 by Cookiesandough 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Angel29 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 I'm finding it difficult at present as I had started getting closer with a friend which it was obvious there could have been potential romance. He went into lockdown in his house well over a week ago and I did the day after he did. I suppose it's not like he is going to meet anyone else right now. It feels like the love of my life has gone to war and I am waiting for him to come back. Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Cookiesandough said: I’m sorry, just no. We have plenty of food in our country. What you’re talking about is momentary supply challenges due to people panicking and buying out too much stuff. But even with the panic and the challenge of hiring more people temporarily , there is no cause to believe anyone in America won’t have access to food for this reason ... But just for fun, consider the absurdity of it if it did cause mass starvation. To avoid catching a virus that quite possibly could have mortality rate only a little higher than the flu even at presejt . With more testing being done, we are seeing a lot of people are asymptomatic or symptoms mild enough to not know they have it. Not to sound redundant but I am with Cookie on this. Take precautions but LIVE your life. I am headed out and I am going to have some fun, get some sunshine and enjoy the blue skies. The sky is NOT falling nor will it fall. Link to post Share on other sites
smackie9 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 I'm sure the porn sites are taking a beating! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Interstellar Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, lurker74 said: There's no shortage today. Please don't get me wrong, I don't really believe that the US will devolve so quickly as to generally make protecting your family from physical threats a necessity. But I also know that it's not as far away as some might think. New York City is, at any given point, about three days away from starting to starve to death. It relies on trucking, which is actually becoming more scarce itself. The rest of the US has always been a Just In Time food infrastructure system, at least for the last ~30 years. That means at any given point, you're less than two weeks away from seeing your last meat in the grocery store for an extended period of time. Even today, many grocery stores lack meat as buying goes up. Another panic combined with trucking shortage and suddenly you have to live with what you have for 30 days or more. Truth be told, most Americans would do well with being forced to live on 2000 calories a day but it will cause panic. And, the panic could be around the corner...April's jobless claims numbers are rumored to be horrific. The Federal government has already told states not to release numbers so that they can manage the release of information better. I've seen estimates of jobless claims in April being between 500,000 and 5 million. For context, the worst month in 2008 was 800,000. If we touch 7 figures, there will be panic. None of this is meant to scare anyone. But it does mean that we may not be through this yet and you should do what is legal and moral to protect you and your family. Prepare for the worse while hoping for the best, help your neighbors, and tell your loved ones you love them - not because you'll lose them but because we all need to hear that now. OK, off my soapbox. Indeed you are correct, the US is three days away from starvation. My mom had to fight hard for 4 boxes of Texas toast garlic bread, and 2 pints of Haagen Dazs dulce de leche ice cream. It’s serious stuff. She forgot she’s Asian because she’s supposed to be fighting for SPAM and rice. Well, the SPAM is finish but there was a ton of rice left because they put a limit on how much you can buy. I just purchased a packaged of Rainbow cookies (an East Coast specialty) and I’m worried that there won’t be anything left. What are they gonna hoard next time besides toilet paper? Mallomars? I’m very concerned. Edited March 21, 2020 by Interstellar 1 Link to post Share on other sites
chillii Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, simpycurious said: Not to sound redundant but I am with Cookie on this. Take precautions but LIVE your life. I am headed out and I am going to have some fun, get some sunshine and enjoy the blue skies. The sky is NOT falling nor will it fall. Yeah , it's incredible how all this crap has been getting into even my head last few days , that's an absolute first for me ever none of the other things that have come along have ever. Been watching too many reports but not only l see things and unfortunately knew wks ago where this was all heading. But even so , why l let this one get into my head , so not me , l really want it out of there and to just find some of that back right now too. Gotta stop watching all the crap and get back to lightening thfk up like l usually would.What will be will be regardless so. For me the good news is my place has beautiful 2000hect of farm land across the road on one side and a 12 hect horse property across the other and my place is roomy with heaps of sunny yard areas or l can still go out walking anytime l want anywhere if it came to the lockdown bc l'm right at the back edge of the town or even hang out around the house outside , great little deck with beautiful views too , so really lm one of the lucky ones in all that regard . And we've got a very quiet strip of beach 20mins over l could drive over to anytime. But l can't believe our bad luck in the other , my gf is 12 hours in another state away and can't get off to come back home for another 10 days and we planned on sitting it all out at my place for as long as it takes as soon as she's gets back, but guess what. They might be closing borders maybe even this wk , and l doubt there'll be national flights much longer either. Haven't seen each other mths she's been stuck of there on a contract and now it could be mths still from here if things go the way they're looking and we'll have to ride it out alone in different states.. Jezuz. def' fkd up with that one. She was suppose to come back 2wks ago but got held up. can't believe it. Edited March 21, 2020 by chillii Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 5 hours ago, smackie9 said: I'm sure the porn sites are taking a beating! Is that literally or figuratively? NM don't answer Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 On 3/18/2020 at 7:05 AM, Hopeful30 said: Let's do the math... Hmmm. You've done some math and reached certain conclusions. However, there are other ways to look at it that are also quite reasonable. One major issue is that this virus is extremely contagious and easily spread. If you look at the map linked below (bottom of post), you can see it's spreading all over the place in the US. Epidemiologists believe it's the "tip of the iceberg" and that the actual numbers are likely much higher. You rightly point out that it only kills a small % of people. However, given modern population sizes, consider for US at approx. 327 M, if we assume (probably conservatively for this virus) that 50% of people eventually get it and 1% die, that's around 1.5 M people dying. If say, an earthquake killed 1.5 M people it would be considered an extreme event/tragedy. A terrorist attack that killed 1.5 M people would be considered an extremely successful one, and frankly in our current environment of heightened awareness, those who let such a thing slip by would be held accountable as incompetent at the very least. Politicians are, I believe, very well aware of the consequences of 1.5 M people dying when it could have in theory been prevented. Depending on how one views the role of government, it also can be seen as their duty to attempt to prevent it (protecting citizens' lives/safety). People generally can be quite fickle and not particularly logical in how they react (e.g. the current shortages at grocery stores). A laissez-faire attitude can quickly be replaced by finger pointing and "how could you let this happen to us" once the death toll starts to rise. There are also ripple effects from medical services being taken away from, e.g. cancer patients and other very ill folks who might be given lower priority. These things are actually happening now to a few unlucky folks in some areas. So, frankly, that 1.5 M number is probably pretty lowball. On 3/18/2020 at 7:05 AM, Hopeful30 said: My question is, what is the media trying to hide by causing this worldwide panic? And why are people so uneducated? Why does the government want people to isolate? I don't think anyone's trying to hide anything. IMO, right now the government is in reactive mode and trying (somewhat heavy-handedly, I agree) to slow the spread and if possible end it through cessation of transmission. I agree that "panic" is not justified as this only kills 1-2% of those who get it. If it was 50% or similar, that might be more a reason to expect a "reset" on civilization. I do think that in coming months, some might be tempted to "socially experiment" and/or take advantage of the situation. Trump in particular, I believe, might be tempted e.g. to cancel or postpone the 2020 elections and declare himself president "until things settle down" in bid for greater power. That's unlikely to be well received by his fellow Republicans, fortunately. Link to Reuters home page (currently) showing map of coronavirus cases. https://www.reuters.com/ 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
elaine567 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 On 3/22/2020 at 2:07 AM, mark clemson said: Trump in particular, I believe, might be tempted e.g. to cancel or postpone the 2020 elections and declare himself president "until things settle down" in bid for greater power What else can he do? The elections are a no go for 2020, they may be a no go for 2021 too. The US are just at the beginning of this. Unless this virus just disappears for some reason as quickly as it came, we are in for the long haul here. It will be at least 18 months till a vaccine is available. They can't unleash an untested vaccine on billions of people. Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 hour ago, elaine567 said: What else can he do? The elections are a no go for 2020, they may be a no go for 2021 too. The US are just at the beginning of this. Unless this virus just disappears for some reason as quickly as it came, we are in for the long haul here. It will be at least 18 months till a vaccine is available. They can't unleash an untested vaccine on billions of people. I do NOW believe this whole crisis will last much longer than once believed. This is not a Republican or a Democrat issue (IMO) it's HUMANITY issue. What appalls me is the political bickering in a time like this put your differences aside and HELP people. Stop calling names, stop acting childish, and HELP those that need it. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 hours ago, elaine567 said: What else can he do? The elections are a no go for 2020, they may be a no go for 2021 too. Well, I'm in the US. People are still sending mail and receiving mail (there are a lot of by-mail voters) AND they are still standing in line (rather long lines at the moment) on weekends at grocery stores. If they can stand in line at grocery stores, touch cash and credit card readers, they can stand in line at polling places. Voting is pretty important from a political/governmental perspective. Providing sanitizer to all the polling places would be a logistical challenge but that would be the way to go IMO. So, while I can see what you're saying, I actually disagree. I think at least one wave of the virus will have gone through by November 20th and many will have at least some level of resistance. But mostly I don't think it's any more dangerous than standing in some other line. Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 I know it's more than likely coming to the point that most are going to be restricted to their homes but as of now I see LOTS of people coming and going in NON-essential pursuits. Lots of recreational activities and exercise related things. It really is hard to stay inside. Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 On 3/23/2020 at 4:37 AM, elaine567 said: What else can he do? The elections are a no go for 2020, they may be a no go for 2021 too. If, as it now appears, this is spread by aerosolized particles, I now agree, we can't have people crowding into rooms to vote. So it may genuinely not be feasible. It would have been nice if they had figured this out a month ago, but it is what it is. Link to post Share on other sites
Tamfana Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) On 3/23/2020 at 4:37 AM, elaine567 said: What else can he do? The elections are a no go for 2020, they may be a no go for 2021 too. The US are just at the beginning of this. Unless this virus just disappears for some reason as quickly as it came, we are in for the long haul here. It will be at least 18 months till a vaccine is available. They can't unleash an untested vaccine on billions of people. He can sign a bill that guarantees that all Americans have the right to vote by mail. Edited April 2, 2020 by Tamfana Link to post Share on other sites
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