simpycurious Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gr8fuln2020 said: This is partly due to the fact that our medical industry is also have problems with this. Shortage of masks, gloves, no tests in many cases...when the population doesn't have confidence in the leadership and experts who should be leading the effort to quell misinformation, provide reasonable and objective guidelines, you get people buying 50+ rolls of toilet paper at a time, every container of hand sanitizer, etc. Things will level off one way or another. More localities are making their own decisions and not waiting. Our state only has a handful of confirmed cases, but good guidance and advice has led our governor to close public schools for two weeks NOW. I think that you are right Gr8fuln. Also, that there is NO vaccine or cure which makes many so uneasy. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
nospam99 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 @cookies. It sux specifically for me because I have decided (the wisdom of my decision is open to criticism) to limit my social interactions until I have a better sense of how serious it really is. No dances, group hikes, or pigging out at the Chinese buffet until 'things' settle down a bit. 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nospam99 said: @cookies. It sux specifically for me because I have decided (the wisdom of my decision is open to criticism) to limit my social interactions until I have a better sense of how serious it really is. No dances, group hikes, or pigging out at the Chinese buffet until 'things' settle down a bit. NOSPAM, I am sure you will not be in the minority on those decisions. It won't settle down for a while I am afraid or get back to "normal" Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, nospam99 said: @cookies. It sux specifically for me because I have decided (the wisdom of my decision is open to criticism) to limit my social interactions until I have a better sense of how serious it really is. No dances, group hikes, or pigging out at the Chinese buffet until 'things' settle down a bit. You do what is most comfortable and safe for you. You know your health better than anyone else. Many feel the same way and in fact, social distancing is strongly encourage all over the place. Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, simpycurious said: I think that you are right Gr8fuln. Also, that there is NO vaccine or cure which makes many so uneasy. Technically, there is no cure for the flu either. Small percentages of people who have been given the current flu vaccine still succumb. The vaccine simply allows our own immune system to create antibodies to the strains du jour and help combat it before or after compromised infection has occurred. There are likely many people who have acquired passive immunity after having recovered, but I haven't read any evidence to support that. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, Gr8fuln2020 said: This is partly due to the fact that our medical industry is also have problems with this. Shortage of masks, gloves, no tests in many cases...when the population doesn't have confidence in the leadership and experts who should be leading the effort to quell misinformation, provide reasonable and objective guidelines, you get people buying 50+ rolls of toilet paper at a time, every container of hand sanitizer, etc. Things will level off one way or another. More localities are making their own decisions and not waiting. Our state only has a handful of confirmed cases, but good guidance and advice has led our governor to close public schools for two weeks NOW. This. I work in healthcare as a primary carer (student hopefully soon to graduate). The country i am in has some of the lower cases thus far and not a lot of community transmission - but the issue for most of the world will come down to resources and whether the public health side ie government can keep up with the needs on the ground. Screening for example is very inconsistent and people are being denied based on not meeting criteria- plus resources are tight, and turnaround time is slow. In terms of dating, myself and my colleagues have told friends and family if they dont want to be around us they dont have to. My friend was told to not come in to her work just based on her exposures at the hospital. But generally speaking, young healthy people WILL not die from this. They will get low grade flu like symptoms and recover. Its 1) the transmission to high risk groups that matters, and 2) the healthcare systems ability to cope/keep up. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, simpycurious said: NOSPAM, I am sure you will not be in the minority on those decisions. It won't settle down for a while I am afraid or get back to "normal" Social distancing will work in avoiding coronavirus, influenza, and a lot of other illness just like not traveling by car will work in avoiding being in a car accident. If you keep away from people and doing stuff that is enjoyable, you will prevent it, but what kind of life would that be. Taking reasonable precautions like washing your hands well and keeping a distance from visibly ill people is more rational. But we’re not really known for that. Edited March 15, 2020 by Cookiesandough 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, paloma22 said: This. I work in healthcare as a primary carer (student hopefully soon to graduate). The country i am in has some of the lower cases thus far and not a lot of community transmission - but the issue for most of the world will come down to resources and whether the public health side ie government can keep up with the needs on the ground. Screening for example is very inconsistent and people are being denied based on not meeting criteria- plus resources are tight, and turnaround time is slow. In terms of dating, myself and my colleagues have told friends and family if they dont want to be around us they dont have to. My friend was told to not come in to her work just based on her exposures at the hospital. But generally speaking, young healthy people WILL not die from this. They will get low grade flu like symptoms and recover. Its 1) the transmission to high risk groups that matters, and 2) the healthcare systems ability to cope/keep up. Yes. My ex is a doctor and she has been texting me like a mad-woman about her concerns with the clinic where she works lacking some of the most basic precautionary items like masks and gloves. The general population is buying them all off the shelves making it difficult for smaller, local healthcare facilities to deal with their own shortage. She is in the frontlines of testing, treatment, triage and she says that they don't even have tests right now. NONE. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cookiesandough said: Social distancing will work in avoiding coronavirus, influenza, and a lot of other illness just like not traveling by car will work in avoiding car accidents If you keep away from people and doing stuff that is enjoyable, you will prevent it, but what kind of life would that be. Taking reasonable precautions like washing your hands well and keeping a distance from visibly ill people is more rational. But we’re not really known for that. Like so many ailments, symptoms are not always obvious, but yes, don't go to extremes. Practice good hygiene, stay away from places where there are a lot of people , and continue being practical, vigilant. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Gr8fuln2020 said: Yes. My ex is a doctor and she has been texting me like a mad-woman about her concerns with the clinic where she works lacking some of the most basic precautionary items like masks and gloves. The general population is buying them all off the shelves making it difficult for smaller, local healthcare facilities to deal with their own shortage. She is in the frontlines of testing, treatment, triage and she says that they don't even have tests right now. NONE. Same with us. I haven't worn a mask in the last few weeks and ive been around a lot of sick people. I couldn't believe the cost of surgical masks at the drug store (50$ for 10). FYI These DONT WORK if you are not sick. But yes, doctors/nurses/HCWs are actually highest risk but its just part of the job. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, Gr8fuln2020 said: There is important information about this virus that is unknown. The fatality rate is considerably higher, statistically speaking, than the flu and does seem to concentrate the greatest lethality among our elder and immuno-compromised population. THIS IS NOT LIKE THE FLU. Not sure where people get this though the POTUS flippantly, on national TV, suggested as much and now we are in a state of emergency, our entire state has closed the public school system down, and it is considered a pandemic. There is also this mysterious notion that some have that warmer weather will save us. The virus doesn't care about whether the weather is warmer or not. It is all about exposure, replication, etc. Viral infections are mitigated because people are far less cloistered in larger number because people are heading outside more. Not because the virus doesn't like warmer weather. This virus is an issue for everyone involved. Regardless of age. However untouchable our younger and healthier population feels it is, they continue to be and are potential carriers of the virus and could spread it to the more vulnerable. And also, this virus does make all ages sick. You may recover quicker, but you will go through the motions of whatever symptoms it presents. Any illness becomes a risk. Some have mentioned that because there is no vaccine, this virus is may very well infect/affect EVERYONE, unlike the flu where many have developed immunity for obvious reason. Careful here - This is exaggerated and probably a product of too much reading the news. This actually IS like the flu - its a coronavirus and coronaviruses are common causes of Upper respiratory tract infections, ear infections etc. The issue is this one is NEW - nobody has developed antibodies to it yet and a vaccine wont be around for likely about 10 months to a year. It will likely work its way around the community like any flu, but the respiratory symptoms (SIMILAR TO THE FLU) are what kill people - commonly pneumonia and ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). This will only happen if you are high risk and thus yes, curbing the spread is whats important. It will however spread, and MOST will get it, its just how quickly that will happen so the HC system can keep up. Also, thousands die every year from the flu and not getting vaccinated. They die from the same reasons as COVID (ie pneumonia, ARDS, etc). 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paloma22 said: Same with us. I haven't worn a mask in the last few weeks and ive been around a lot of sick people. I couldn't believe the cost of surgical masks at the drug store (50$ for 10). FYI These DONT WORK if you are not sick. But yes, doctors/nurses/HCWs are actually highest risk but its just part of the job. You good people are awesome! $50 for 10 masks. What a sham! My ex was telling me that her clinic is waiting for custom masks. Masks that have to be custom fitted for each individual, so turn around delivery is not immediate AND fricken' rip off in terms of cost. Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, Gr8fuln2020 said: You good people are awesome! $50 for 10 masks. What a sham! My ex was telling me that her clinic is waiting for custom masks. Masks that have to be custom fitted for each individual, so turn around delivery is not immediate AND fricken' rip off in terms of cost. Thats bogus. That'll likely be an N95 type mask but ive never heard of custom fitted. She must be in a really high risk spot. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, paloma22 said: Careful here - This is exaggerated and probably a product of too much reading the news. This actually IS like the flu - its a coronavirus and coronaviruses are common causes of Upper respiratory tract infections, ear infections etc. The issue is this one is NEW - nobody has developed antibodies to it yet and a vaccine wont be around for likely about 10 months to a year. It will likely work its way around the community like any flu, but the respiratory symptoms (SIMILAR TO THE FLU) are what kill people - commonly pneumonia and ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). This will only happen if you are high risk and thus yes, curbing the spread is whats important. It will however spread, and MOST will get it, its just how quickly that will happen so the HC system can keep up. Also, thousands die every year from the flu and not getting vaccinated. They die from the same reasons as COVID (ie pneumonia, ARDS, etc). Though it depends on what you mean it is like the flu. When I say that it is not like the flu, I am not talking about symptoms or directly causality, etc. I am speaking of fatality rates as observed with confirmed patients DUE TO THE COMPLICATIONS OF THE VIRUS. Of course, we are not fully aware of all those infected and having had recovered, but initial studies show that the rate is higher than the flu. Time will tell. Edited March 15, 2020 by Gr8fuln2020 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, paloma22 said: Thats bogus. That'll likely be an N95 type mask but ive never heard of custom fitted. She must be in a really high risk spot. Her population is much more urban and low-income. I don't know how business is done at that clinic, but I laughed at the notion of custom-fitted masks. I do want to add that I do no intend to make things sound dire. Far from it. I have a background in molecular biology and spent a number years in pathogenic research, predominantly bacterial. Perhaps I should shut up now. Edited March 15, 2020 by Gr8fuln2020 Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, Gr8fuln2020 said: I respectfully disagree. Though it depends on what you mean it is like the flu. When I say that it is not like the flu, I am not talking about symptoms or directly causality, etc. I am speaking of fatality rates as observed with confirmed patients DUE TO THE COMPLICATIONS OF THE VIRUS. Of course, we are not fully aware of all those infected and having had recovered, but initial studies show that the rate is higher than the flu. Time will tell. It presents very similar to the flu. The mortality rates are higher than the flu because its new. hundreds of thousands of people die from the flu every year but the flu has been around much longer, our bodies have seasonally seen versions of it before - plus there are vaccines. There is herd immunity for the flu now because of vaccines - COVID there is no herd immunity bc there is no vaccine. THAT is why its more dangerous. not because the complications are so much different . vulnerable populations get it and have zero protection from herd immunity so there is an exaggerated appearance of those presentations, and it will show up more often in those groups. the complications do present worse and more often. Also, the mortality rate appears much higher than flu bc we dont have the comparable numbers (ie in proportions, it appears exaggerated just based on whats happened so far, whereas we have years of data for season flu). I hope that makes sense. I used to work in public health and and soon to be a dr. so im pretty confident in this thought process. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 I agree paloma22. Until all the data is in, we won't have a definitive account of what this virus is capable of, but with current data, as incomplete as it is, it seems to be more dangerous. I am absolutely not saying that it will NOT become just another part of seasonal aggravation after a vaccine is developed, etc. It may.....or it may not. We don't have all the data...yet. Link to post Share on other sites
mark clemson Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 FWIW, my guess is that by this time next year things will have normalized. That is, the virus will still be around but we will have gone through one season of it and will no longer be panicked. There will probably be an anti-viral drug or two fast-tracked and approved to treat it and vaccines in the works as well. I suspect by a year from now most people will look at it much the way we do the flu - a seasonal risk to be factored in, but not something to shake up one's life over unless you actually come down with it. That's just my guess, I suppose we'll see if I'm right. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Cookiesandough said: Social distancing will work in avoiding coronavirus, influenza, and a lot of other illness just like not traveling by car will work in avoiding being in a car accident. If you keep away from people and doing stuff that is enjoyable, you will prevent it, but what kind of life would that be. Taking reasonable precautions like washing your hands well and keeping a distance from visibly ill people is more rational. But we’re not really known for that. Well said Ms Cookie. General precautions but life is meant to be lived and enjoyed. It is a wonderful time of year and time to enjoy the weather that is coming. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
elaine567 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: Social distancing will work in avoiding coronavirus, influenza, and a lot of other illness just like not traveling by car will work in avoiding being in a car accident. If you keep away from people and doing stuff that is enjoyable, you will prevent it, but what kind of life would that be. Taking reasonable precautions like washing your hands well and keeping a distance from visibly ill people is more rational. But we’re not really known for that. You are looking at this from the stance of a young healthy woman, try looking at it from the stance of a 65yo man like nospam. Age is a big deal here. A few weeks/months of isolation is nothing if the alternative is perhaps severe illness or even death. That is the problem, that is what older people are facing here. It is easy to suggest others take risks with their lives, when the risks to your own life are negligible. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) I think the risk of anything serious is still not worth that response even for older people, especially when precautions are taken. If he’s going to be anxious about COVID-9,, he should equally anxious of heart disease, cancer, road accidents, or homicide because the likelihood of dying at age 65 any of those is much higher. But the human mind doesn’t work that way. Not to say he shouldn’t take precautions to protect himself or those he cares about,, just that I think not living your life/going out is a bit silly. It’s his life, though.I think few weeks/months it will most likely still be around, so to effectively avoid it he should probably stay in isolation much longer than that. Edited March 15, 2020 by Cookiesandough Link to post Share on other sites
dramallama Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:46 PM, contel3 said: Actually, the last person I dated is under quarantine… Won't stop me from dating, but it is kind of a weird feeling. I wasn't even that fussed, so it's kinda made me reevaluate about wasting time on people I'm not super into. Next time I'm going on a date it has to be worth it. I'm quarantined too, colleague I work v closely with came into contact with 2 confirmed cases, then he got sick and next day I did. I'm in the UK and work in NHS tho. Feeling annoyed as I'd just persuaded my guy not to go to Paris thinking we would have time together and now nope, I'm sick and housebound 🙄🤣 Interestingly a pilot friend told me he'd had "weird flu" with exact same symptoms and onset pattern well over a month ago. This thing has been doing the rounds longer than we realise it seems. I know a few really vulnerable people who have caught it (leukaemia patient, elderly) and the "I'm all right Jack" attitude is only hurting the vulnerable. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
nospam99 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 @elaine and cookies. Hey! Please don't pick on the 'old man' (BTW, I'm 66 now.) My concern with the virus has nothing to do with my age. It's that I don't regard what we've all been told in the news as reliable. One example of the dozens of unanswered questions I'D ask is why should we regard this diagnostic test people are scrambling to have done as reliable. What are the rates of false negatives and false positives? How did whoever developed the test come up with it so quickly when after decades there is still no 'gold standard' test for lyme disease? Regardless, I'm 'comfortable' with the idea that isolation is one of the best actions available everywhere to try to limit the spread of any virus. This one 'seems' to be particularly contagious. All the more reason to limit personal contacts. Public schools and colleges are closing (at least where I live). Those students are WAY younger than 66. Cookies mentioned a 'fear of death' related to such sources as heart disease, cancer, road accidents, or homicide. Well, between healthy lifestyle, driving skill, living in a safe neighborhood, and not 'doing business' with people who kill their customers, I think I've got all of those reasonably covered. And I'm really not concerned about covid-19 killing me. But I don't want to spread it to people who probably are not as healthy as I am and I don't want to be 'kidnapped' by the health care system and restrained in a hospital (my perception of 'hospitalization' in our brave not so new world of Obamacare - I have a friend where that is EXACTLY what happened to them). 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
introverted1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 10 hours ago, Gr8fuln2020 said: Shortage of masks, gloves, no tests in many cases... Shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, ECMO machines... While 80% of cases are estimated to be mild enough for home care, another 20% are likely to require hospitalization, with fully 5% needing intense care (ventilators). We simply do not have the beds or equipment to care for large volumes of infected people. I'm less worried about getting sick myself than in possibly transmitting the virus to someone who will be severely impacted by it. And that could be a grandparent, cancer patient, person with an auto-immune disease, or just one of the 30%+ of Americans with high blood pressure or 10% of those with type 2 diabetes, all of whom are considered high risk. Link to post Share on other sites
introverted1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 10 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: Social distancing will work in avoiding coronavirus, influenza, and a lot of other illness just like not traveling by car will work in avoiding being in a car accident. The fatality rate for a car accident is 1.13 per 100 million miles driven. The fatality rate on covid-19 is much, much higher. I'm not an advocate of panic, and I have no idea why people are hoarding toilet paper, of all things, but this virus does have the potential to overwhelm our health care system and force doctors to make difficult decisions about who to treat. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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