The world stops. how about yours?

[Springsummer]

Everything closes. Work places close, school close, ski hills close...there is nothing to do but stay home watching moves? I will just look at my monitor all day long..

my city only has about 10 confirmed cases, isn't it over reacting? 

OMG...

[amaysngrace]

You can only get tested if you’re severely ill.  People will be walking around with minimum symptoms infecting others who are more at risk for becoming severely ill so no.  Not overreacting at all. 

[amaysngrace]

45 minutes ago, Vespil said:

I don't think that's true at all. In more and more places as test kits become available, lots more people are being tested, especially those who show any symptoms. Early detection to contain the spread is the whole point.

 

 

Really?  As of two days ago only people who were intubated were being tested for covid19 after having every other respiratory illness ruled out first because reliable test kits were so limited.  And that’s in hospitals.  That’s hardly “early detection.”

Did you see the CDCs requirements for people to have the test administered at all?   It’s really very strict.

That’s why doctors are so pissed. 

[major_merrick]

Things are coming to a standstill where I live, except for emergency and defense workers whose workloads are increasing.  Even though the virus isn't here yet, it is expected soon.  Businesses are closing, food and fuel are becoming voluntarily rationed by suppliers.  I'm just doing projects at home to stay busy, but I'm going to be entering the later months of pregnancy, so I'll start sleeping more and doing less pretty soon.

 

[basil67]

@Springsummer do you understand the theory about slowing infection so that hospitals and health care workers aren't overwhelmed?

[SumGuy]

12 hours ago, Springsummer said:

Everything closes. Work places close, school close, ski hills close...there is nothing to do but stay home watching moves? I will just look at my monitor all day long..

my city only has about 10 confirmed cases, isn't it over reacting? 

OMG...

It depends on the disease.  With disease you need to think exponentially.  Going about business as usual and an R0 of 2-3 (and lets assume a 5 day time for incubation which I think is close) those 10 cases will turn into 20-30 in about 5 days, and 40-90 in a about 10, about 80-270 in 15 days,...by day 30, 640-7290 cases.   The thing with contagious disease is when you see the tip of the iceberg is when you need to act.  And like an iceberg you "see" just the tip.

Another way to think of it.  Those 10 people were contagious for days before they showed enough symptoms to be recognized.  During that time they could be infecting people around them...but you won't know until the incubation period passes (4-5 days I hear).

Also for every 1 with such symptoms there are 3 to 4 that have such mild symptoms they may not know they have it, but  they can still infect others.  So there are more people that have it than that confirmed case number.

It also depends on how many tests your country has, if there is extensive testing that number 10 may be close to the actual...if not that number is going to be very low.

[Springsummer]

You guys are right about the asymptomatic and exponential spread of the disease.  

I am just pissed that you know we had a carpool for a 2 hours drive to ski, and then in the evening suddenly was told the resort is closed, and the next day, the local ones are closed too and then workplace....I am just shocked. 

Looks like it should be a world wide coordinated effort to kill the virus, because this is a global village. 

[Foxhall]

perhaps a bit of time out is no harm,

sit back and reflect for a while

 

[schlumpy]

Went to the store today. First it was no toilet paper and now it's no eggs and milk. I'll probably have to buy my milk on ebay! 🙂

[simpycurious]

51 minutes ago, Foxhall said:

perhaps a bit of time out is no harm,

sit back and reflect for a while

 

I don't sit around very well so I am out of luck I suppose.  I like to be going and doing things just not sitting around.  

 

But some reflection is never a bad thing I guess but I wanna do it on a boat...lol

Edited March 16, 2020 by simpycurious

[The Outlaw]

So far, the US only has 4,567 reported cases. China has 80,880. Italy 27,980. Iran 14,991. Spain 9,942. South Korea 8,236. Not to say it can't get that bad here, but I just don't think it will. But it's just best to not panic. 

[mrs rubble]

I'm just glad I took 2 weeks of annual leave from work,  just before this started. I can assure you that nothing has stopped in my world, it's just a whole load busier.

I have to work double shift today, due to illness of a co-worker and my boss has just asked me if I can pick up extra shifts in the coming few weeks. The joys of working in a laboratory!

[basil67]

On 3/16/2020 at 1:09 PM, Vespil said:

I don't think that's true at all. In more and more places as test kits become available, lots more people are being tested, especially those who show any symptoms. Early detection to contain the spread is the whole point.

As far as the Op goes, those 10 cases can easily be 1000 cases in a week if precautions aren't taken. This virus multiplies exponentially.

 

 

We don't have enough test kits here, so only those who have been in close contact with someone who's tested positive, or has come from O/S will be tested.  Meanwhile, one of my best friends has all the symptoms (and is self quarantining) can't get tested.   Which going back to @Springsummer discussion about only 10 confirmations, we must remember there are likely positive people who haven't been tested either due to lack of equipment in some quarters or lack of symptoms

 

[SumGuy]

3 hours ago, The Outlaw said:

So far, the US only has 4,567 reported cases. China has 80,880. Italy 27,980. Iran 14,991. Spain 9,942. South Korea 8,236. Not to say it can't get that bad here, but I just don't think it will. But it's just best to not panic. 

That’s frightening actually. 
15 days ago confirmed cases was 83

5 days ago 1267

Now 4567 you say?

in 5 days hence?  15,000?

if you look at the data so far the US is on the italian curve, which if our social distancing does not work means over a 100,000 confirmed cases for the US

dont panic but don’t be cavalier and go about close social interaction as usual

[Springsummer]

OMG, I didn't dump my stock...now too late. how come I didn't foresee this? so stupid

Edited March 17, 2020 by Springsummer

[Marc878]

You only lose if you sell. 

[Ellener]

7 hours ago, Foxhall said:

perhaps a bit of time out is no harm,

sit back and reflect for a while

 

This is what Prof Melissa Winchell advises after her own family experience of a long quarantine:

 

Listen, friends, my son was in quarantine for an entire year while he recovered from chemo and a bone marrow transplant. Before we began, I asked the doctor not how to survive the isolation, but how to thrive in it.

Here's what I learned during my 12 months of quarantine with him:

1. Protect the vulnerable even if doing so means isolating yourself and re-arranging your plans, expectations, and life. We quarantine for others, not ourselves. Quarantine is your contribution to the public good and an act of love.

2. People may die. All the families we befriended on the transplant's isolated floor lost their children. All of them. If you are quarantined and have health, be grateful. It really, truly could be worse.

3. Quarantine is annoying & hard & exasperating...but remember: the best you can ever tell yourself, should you be someone who suffers from the virus, is that you quarantined the hell out of quarantine. No regrets. You did all you could. It's the only peace there is.

4. Establish a routine early especially if you are isolated with a child(ren). Wake up, game time, craft time, reading...create structure within each day out of chores and meals and books and the ordinary. And if like me you'll be working from home set hours/limits on that too. It makes time a friend and not an enemy.

5. Ask yourself who you want to be while quarantined? And work each day on being that person. Quarantine is an opportunity to start a new habit or return to a hobby or play more music in the house. Be determined to use the time to grow.

6. Turn ordinary into joy. A meal on the living room floor is a picnic. A walk in the backyard is a scientific exploration. A dive into the recycling bin is a craft or engineering feat.

7. Pay attention to your self-talk. Don't tell yourself it's never going to end and you're going to die of boredom or claustrophobia. The circumstances are out of your control, but you can become aware of how you respond and make space to change.

8. Get outside. You can stay away from folks and still walk the dog, build a campfire, visit an urban garden, or sit on your front stoop. Fresh air and sunshine do wonders for perspective.

9. Make plans for the future. Quarantine won't last forever no matter how often it feels that way. Dream about your next outing, vacation, or day in the office. Envisioning the future is essential to hope.

10. Lean into quarantine. The change could teach you something. What is it here to teach you? What can you learn? How can you carry the gifts of isolation-time with you into the rest of your life? Decide not to resist quarantine, but embrace it. I promise, you'll be amazed at what you learn.

[Ellener]

Another important thing to remember is there are not unlimited intensive nursing beds, the less people who contract the virus those people who do get it have a better chance to survive.

That's worth us all maybe having to be a bit bored or afraid or isolated for a while.

I'm a bit worried but already seeing the unexpected positives like catching up on a backlog of paperwork and work prep, doing daily yoga and getting more sleep.

 

[Els]

I don't actually have much issue with staying indoors (although it's not required/advised in my country as of yet), but my #firstworldproblems problem with a lockdown is that the restaurants will all close so they can't deliver food to us! Cooking 3 meals a day every day is gonna suck... 🤐 I don't even get the "silver lining" bit of getting paid time off work, since I work remotely and H works in emergency services (so both of us are still working).

More seriously, I think those of us who are merely inconvenienced by this, are already very lucky. Other people are losing loved ones, or (in developing countries) are desperately poor and have no financial safety net, or are ill themselves. Gotta think about the big picture. Yes I had a holiday booked that I have to cancel too, but in the grand scheme of things it is nothing, really.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Elswyth

[Fletch Lives]

I'm staying home too. I'm doing some home improvements and building a home theater. I have enough to keep me occupied for a long time. Plus there is always phone, internet, TV, music, cleaning, sleeping, and cooking. 

[schlumpy]

7 hours ago, Springsummer said:

OMG, I didn't dump my stock...now too late. how come I didn't foresee this? so stupid

It's time to buy - not sell.

[FMW]

I plan to take lots of walks and check out some hiking trails on the weekends. Maybe go hit some golf balls at the driving range.    

Otherwise, I'm already feeling anxious about being stuck at home - my company has us working remotely for now and my normal social outings are going to be limited if not completely eliminated for the time being because of all the mandates to limit gatherings.  

I understand the need for social distancing, but it's really causing me a lot of anxiety.  I didn't realize that my normal routines and activities were so important to my emotional well-being.  It's been an interesting realization.

And as far as investments - the losses are only on paper unless you panic and cash out.  Just stay the course, or as schlumpy pointed out, take advantage of the buying opportunities.  But it is disheartening to see my account balances getting lower every day.  

Just a weird and unsettling time we're going through right now.  

[Ellener]

4 hours ago, Elswyth said:

my #firstworldproblems problem with a lockdown is that the restaurants will all close so they can't deliver food to us! Cooking 3 meals a day every day is gonna suck...

😀

Restaurants in my area are closing to dine-in and going to take-out and delivery services.

[Springsummer]

3 hours ago, schlumpy said:

It's time to buy - not sell.

True. I am holding on them now. but if I sold it a few weeks ago, I will have more money to buy later.:)🙂

the question now is when is the bottom so that I can buy? looks stock market is bounce back already today. maybe I already missed my buy oppportunity or wait?

[Springsummer]

Stock is a psychological game. Tesla loses more than half of its value in a matter of less than a month