covid-19 rant - what we ever know about anything

[nospam99]

@tamfana. Cuomo is a performing circus animal, always has been. Let me sit down with him one on one (without fear of retaliation - THAT ain't gonna happen - for exposing him as an idiot, sorry ignoramus) and I'll expose his ignorance. Nothing wrong with flattening the curve. Do that with isolation, mandatory if necessary (and it is DAMN necessary in NYC).

@elaine. Me at risk? I doubt it. I'll assert without support that age is only used as a risk criteria because it's trivially easy to quantify. The REAL risk factor is the health of one's immune response which happens to correlate nicely with age, but there are other independent variables related to a healthy lifestyle (diet, sleep, exercise, attitude) and genetics. If there was any upside, I'd deliberately expose myself and take my chances just to demonstrate. But a sample of one would prove nothing. What do you think the chances of Bonny Prince Charlie coming through this intact are? For what it's worth, I am all for self isolation and actually started 'social distancing' (and suggested that Cuomo's government cancel civil service exams because they're a group meeting - he doesn't take my calls) before the end of February.

More on my risk ... pre-existing comorbidity factors listed at worldmeter https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ :
Cardiovascular disease
Diabetes
Chronic respiratory disease
Hypertension
Cancer
None of the above apply to me. Reported risk of death without those factors is currently less than 1%.

Edited March 26, 2020 by nospam99

[lana-banana]

29 minutes ago, nospam99 said:

Me at risk? I doubt it. I'll assert without support that age is only used as a risk criteria because it's trivially easy to quantify. The REAL risk factor is the health of one's immune response which happens to correlate nicely with age, but there are other independent variables related to a healthy lifestyle (diet, sleep, exercise, attitude) and genetics. 

This is completely false (here's a current look at global fatality rates by age) but, more troublingly, it's an example of dangerous and unhealthy mental gymnastics. You don't seem to like the idea that the virus is more fatal to people of a certain age, so instead of accept the available evidence---of which there is tons---you're just asserting that all the scientists in the world are lazy and that you know better. That's not the case. But at any rate it's impossible to convince someone who absolutely refuses to be persuaded, so I don't even understand the point of this thread and have to bow out.

[elaine567]

1 hour ago, nospam99 said:

What do you think the chances of Bonny Prince Charlie coming through this intact are?

Bloated individuals who drink 6 bottles of wine a day are probably at increased risk, (though alcoholism is not on the official at risk list) 
But he was a very nasty piece of work, so he may have been lucky and survived...

1 hour ago, nospam99 said:

Me at risk? I doubt it

You don't KNOW that.
As the names and faces are now being assigned to the deaths reported in the UK, some young people with no underlying health issues are showing up.

[nospam99]

@lana-banana. Your link points right back at the worldmeter source that I already referenced in support of my opinion. Try persuading me with a data source that I'm not using to support my own argument. Until then, I'm 'confident' (though not 'convinced' and definitely not 'certain') that my lack of comorbitity factors invalidates the age risk generalization. I don't refuse to persuaded. But I very much do have a critical eye on the validity of data and an understanding of experimental design and statistical hypothesis testing that I've only encountered in (two) people teaching that KNOWLEDGE at the undergraduate level (my grad school faculty didn't have that level of understanding - couldn't tell a normal distribution from a student's t).

[mark clemson]

I agree that critical assessment of what's being presented is important. That said, it's not particularly realistic to expect Biology to have the same level precision of Engineering until a LOT of controlled studies are done, if ever. Particularly in a crisis situation. The human tallies and assessments are all in vivo and any non-lab data is dictated by what medical folks can actually get their hands on.

On 3/21/2020 at 5:26 AM, nospam99 said:

There are all kinds of details about covid-19 which probably aren't even really known at the moment: how contagious and deadly it really is

True - however, it is contagious and deadly enough. See map linked below (inset onto homepage). Even if 40% of those cases are false positives, it appears we've got a real problem.

 https://www.reuters.com/

 

On 3/21/2020 at 5:26 AM, nospam99 said:

Like almost everything the experts and authorities give 'us', all we get is the assertions. I really doubt that the 'authorities' (e.g. Trump - I love his values and accept his actions, but I think he is being a full-on ignorant a**h*** again every time he opens his mouth about 'it') understand anything about 'it'.

Interesting.

That's our system for better or worse. One can't be an expert in everything, so we can't really expect a businessman to suddenly understand microbiology. Those rare folks who have talent in both of those areas are busy trying to run biotech startups anyhow, rather than running for President. C'est la vie.

I'm no particular fan of Trump, but I couldn't see, say, Hillary doing any better (so far, that may change if Trump goes too "maverick" on us and does something that doesn't make sense) under current circumstances. His "decisive" style may end up being an asset in the current situation. His unpredictability, presumably less so.

IF he pulls us through this with relatively little harm, I think he deserves credit for that. We're not off to a particularly good start, but time will tell.

[2BGoodAgain]

51 minutes ago, mark clemson said:

I agree that critical assessment of what's being presented is important. That said, it's not particularly realistic to expect Biology to have the same level precision of Engineering until a LOT of controlled studies are done, if ever. Particularly in a crisis situation. The human tallies and assessments are all in vivo and any non-lab data is dictated by what medical folks can actually get their hands on.

True - however, it is contagious and deadly enough. See map linked below (inset onto homepage). Even if 40% of those cases are false positives, it appears we've got a real problem.

 https://www.reuters.com/

 

Interesting.

That's our system for better or worse. One can't be an expert in everything, so we can't really expect a businessman to suddenly understand microbiology. Those rare folks who have talent in both of those areas are busy trying to run biotech startups anyhow, rather than running for President. C'est la vie.

I'm no particular fan of Trump, but I couldn't see, say, Hillary doing any better (so far, that may change if Trump goes too "maverick" on us and does something that doesn't make sense) under current circumstances. His "decisive" style may end up being an asset in the current situation. His unpredictability, presumably less so.

IF he pulls us through this with relatively little harm, I think he deserves credit for that. We're not off to a particularly good start, but time will tell.

i have to say, i am seriously blaming media for some of the panic i'm seeing... 

some do a fair job of reporting the news as accurately as possible, but sometimes to attract the headlines and audience/visits... some in the media... put out one sided headlines like "infection doubles in a day"... without really reporting the fatalities, making it seem like when you've got it,... you might as well be dead.... when in reality, the mortality rate is still lower than the number of deaths due to heart disease 44k/yr in NYC(2016)...i know, i know... we THINK the projections could be way worse, but so far, the dead number around 500 in NYC? i realize this seems like a lot, and knock on wood, it may go way way past bad... but so far, that's literally a very very small number of deaths... 

 

 

[basil67]

Do you really think that the experts and authorities have the bandwidth to deal with a heap of punters presenting their crackpot theories and questions?  How will they get their jobs done if they are dealing with thousands of identical calls?   I think you’ll find that the experts are very busy working hard on whatever their skill set is. 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by basil67

[Eternal Sunshine]

I am a scientist. Real data is out there and there are many reliable sources and peer-reviewed publications by now. Nothing is being hidden, especially if you look at the data itself, rather than various interpretations of it.

I have been offered a lead role in a large COVID-19 clinical trial for an existing immuno-modulating medication. As part of a detailed study protocol that I was given today, I reviewed detailed data from many individual hospitals around the world, as some patients have been given this medication already in an attempt to lessen the severity of the infection. This data is not publicly available and details are currently confidential but I can confirm that everything I have seen is consistent with publicly available data sets.

 

[jah526]

I still don't understand how people are catching this. How often do you stand close to someone who is coughing or sneezing, or rub your eye after touching something in a public place? For me, I'd have to say very rarely to never for both. I guess the coughing/sneezing nearby happens more frequently in big cities, but even so, from the number of infections, it almost seems like if someone exhales in your vicinity you're liable to catch it. Or is it that the droplets hang around in the air for awhile and then you walk through it unknowingly?

[mark clemson]

5 minutes ago, jah526 said:

I still don't understand how people are catching this.

I won't pretend to know, but I think part of this is there is a lag between when you catch it and when you become symptomatic AND many folks have mild symptoms so don't know they can pass it on.

Here is a possible example of how tricky it might be in theory (I AM NOT pretending I know this could happen for sure):

- A customer at a drug store has it but no symptoms.

- They buy stuff. At the checkout they "spray" a small amount of liquid saliva on the counter while talking to the checkout clerk (happens). Virus lands on counter surface.

- You buy food or some other stuff an hour later. Place stuff on counter. A little bit of virus gets on the packaging of what you buy.

- You come home, wash your hands, all is normal.

- Later that day you pick up the box of whatever you bought, get virus on your hands. Don't wash them (why would you, under normal circumstances)?

- A bit later you unconsciously touch your face - e.g. gently scratch an itch on nose or eyes. People do this all the time.

- Viola! You're infected.

Multiply this by, say 20 people x 14 days in a major city and then have each person infect a few more every day for a month or so before we all started taking extra safety precautions. Eventually you get a lot of people infected.

Not saying this is how it spreads, but it's one theoretically possible way in my layman's opinion.

 

[jah526]

Mark, thanks for the reply but from everything I've read the primary way the infection is passed is person to person (hence why we're all social distancing atm). My understanding is that picking it up from a store container is a small probability. One site said that there have been no known instances of someone becoming infected from packaging. In addition, the virus degrades the longer it remains on surfaces, so that it becomes less infectious. I do believe you're right about something though - I think when we talk we emit droplets, maybe very tiny ones, but still, maybe that is enough, because most times you are talking with someone you're closer than 3 feet away. I think as someone here said, and from what I've read, the droplets are suspended in air for a little bit before they drop. Maybe during this time you can inhale them unknowingly if you're standing close.

Edited March 27, 2020 by jah526

[jah526]

Ok, I just read that there was research done on SARS that showed that the liquid part of the droplet dries in the air, leaving the virus to be carried in the air. 

[Prudence V]

On 3/26/2020 at 2:50 PM, pepperbird said:

Is there any reliable information yet about whether or not catching this virus results in immunity to it?

It’s not yet known how mutable it is.  There are two known mutations on record, resulting in two known variants in the wild. There is one confirmed report of someone falling ill from the virus twice, though I’ve not been able to find whether there was confirmation of two separate infections, or a relapse. It is, of course, possible that the patient was affected by the two different strains, and that infection by one did not confer immunity against the other. 
 

The “herd immunity” strategy the U.K. followed initially was based on the assumption that infection confers immunity - an assumption that was, back then, far from proven fact. 

[Tamfana]

On 3/26/2020 at 3:55 PM, nospam99 said:

@tamfana. Cuomo is a performing circus animal, always has been. Let me sit down with him one on one (without fear of retaliation - THAT ain't gonna happen - for exposing him as an idiot, sorry ignoramus) and I'll expose his ignorance. Nothing wrong with flattening the curve. Do that with isolation, mandatory if necessary (and it is DAMN necessary in NYC).

Well, you might not like the man but he's been far more accurate about data and scientific projections and proactive in aiding his people than the president.  

[Tamfana]

As you complain about Cuomo, think of it this way. At least you have shelter in place. 

Here in AZ we don’t have shelter in place because our Republican governor is helping the pres keep numbers down.  That doesn’t make sense, right?  Well, AZ isn’t testing in any significant way, even if you die from COVID19, so AZ Governor Ducey pleases Trump by not testing and making it appear as though we're not infected.  Lowest testing rate in the USA, making it great again every day.  

NOLA had Mardi Gras in February whereas we in AZ had the Phoenix Open Golf, the largest arabian horse show in the world, baseball spring training games, the largest gem and mineral show in the world, and lots of festivals all in February.  So come on down and enjoy the AZ way, the American way, the liberals and Democrats are to blame, keep America great way.  ~24% of our population is over 60.  April and May will be a testament to the genius of Trump and the GOP.  

Edited March 29, 2020 by Tamfana

[2BGoodAgain]

On 3/27/2020 at 2:11 PM, jah526 said:

I still don't understand how people are catching this. How often do you stand close to someone who is coughing or sneezing, or rub your eye after touching something in a public place? For me, I'd have to say very rarely to never for both. I guess the coughing/sneezing nearby happens more frequently in big cities, but even so, from the number of infections, it almost seems like if someone exhales in your vicinity you're liable to catch it. Or is it that the droplets hang around in the air for awhile and then you walk through it unknowingly?

throw in allergies. 

people's reflexes are muscle memory for decades of added on auto reflexes that the conscious mind rarely think about.

that's what I'm leaning on....

other than that... poor hygiene... not necessarily that they smell or anything, but rather that many many people touch their orifices without sanitizing... it's very common.