Ignoring health officials

[Eternal Sunshine]

I definitely think that warmer weather has something to do with it. We are coming out of summer in Australia and there are only 28 corona deaths so far (mortality is around 0.5%).

I am dreading the winter..

Edited April 3, 2020 by Eternal Sunshine

[basil67]

I've been thinking that our low rates are more to do with our lock downs.   So it will be interesting to see if there's a change with the seasons.

[Eternal Sunshine]

2 minutes ago, basil67 said:

I've been thinking that our low rates are more to do with our lock downs.   So it will be interesting to see if there's a change with the seasons.

I hope so. I am happy to see that estimated compliance is close to 90% in Australia. Australians ❤️

[basil67]

It will be challenging to keep it up if the lock downs extend past three months 😬

[elaine567]

28 minutes ago, basil67 said:

It will be challenging to keep it up if the lock downs extend past three months 😬

Fear will keep people locked down.

[basil67]

True, but as our curve continues towards flat line, people will become less fearful.    I'm alarmed that our media is talking about how our infection rates are dropping, yet we aren't testing everyone who's symptomatic - and some are asymptomatic and won't get tests anyway - so the stats are a false low.  Those who don't view the stats with caution may get a false sense of security from this.  

 

[Poppy47]

On 4/2/2020 at 6:10 AM, amaysngrace said:

Because people are selfish.  And entitled.  

There’s no other explanation.  

The worst part is these same people will be the first ones lining up to see a healthcare professional after they’ve put them all at risk all along. 

I know some people who went on a cruise because they stood to lose quite a bit of money if they dropped out. That was their motivation.

[Poppy47]

4 hours ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

I hope so. I am happy to see that estimated compliance is close to 90% in Australia. Australians ❤️

I am Australian.  There has been good compliance here so far. Police have cracked down and issued fines.  All public meeting places closed.

Let's hope it continues.

[Eternal Sunshine]

I still think that Australia has a natural advantage of being an island, low population density and warm weather.

From the current data, it looks like we are now hitting the peak, so it may never get any worse. This is assuming that compliance continues. A drop of compliance by say 20% would be disastrous.

[Ellener]

14 hours ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

I am dreading the winter..

people overseas may not remember June and July are your coldest months and that is why you are already thinking about winter.

Here in the US Gulf Coast we won't see winter weather for another 8 or 9 months. 

[Gaeta]

Compliance is the answer. My Province has shut down our entire economy at 17 cases and 0 death. We shut down before France and before the rest of Canada. Three weeks later we have 61 dead for 6101 cases, that is 0.009% death rate. We will reach our peak around April 11th. People in my Province support our government strict actions at 93%. 

[simpycurious]

I don't see much compliance especially in absolute awesome weather conditions.  Lots of people exercising, working on their tans, enjoying the water, etc. 

[schlumpy]

Unless there is way to do a double blind study on the pandemic, we will never know for sure that the restrictions being implemented were effective.

Politicians have it set up so they win either way.

If two hundred thousand people die in the US they will say that more would have died if they hadn't taken strict action and if the death rate is minimal, they will claim that the restrictions worked. It's a win-win for them. They can't lose. I wish I could say the same for the citizens of this country.

[mark clemson]

21 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

Unless there is way to do a double blind study on the pandemic, we will never know for sure that the restrictions being implemented were effective.

So what would you have folks do? NOT follow restrictions and hope for the best? In all likelihood prolonging the pandemic and associated economic bust, and worsening the economic effects.

No double blind studies have ever been done on cigarette smoking either. Perhaps cigarettes don't actually cause any health problems at all and all those people who smoked just happened to get emphysema, lung cancer, etc. A statistical anomaly.

I think there's a danger people in general have in being able to believe whatever one feels like if you're willing to deny enough evidence, only pay attention to the rare exception cases, give the what-ifs more credence than the probable actual reality.

As you probably know there are plenty of people out there who believe the earth is flat despite the fact that you can fly a satellite around it, so it's not like it's impossible for a reasonably intelligent person to still have severely distorted beliefs.

If I'm willing to deny enough evidence, I can believe whatever I want.

[schlumpy]

13 hours ago, mark clemson said:

So what would you have folks do? NOT follow restrictions and hope for the best? In all likelihood prolonging the pandemic and associated economic bust, and worsening the economic effects.

I worked for a man one time that gave me some advice. He said, "Schlumpy, whenever there is a crisis it doesn't matter whether the decision you make is right or wrong, it only matters that you make a decision."

I watched his advice play out more then once to his benefit and that's what I feel is going on now. We are all being forced onto a run-a-way train because too many people are making decisions knowing that it will come out in the wash later on.

But you did ask a good question. I expect people to act within their self interest. They can cooperate when it's of mutual benefit but decline when it's not. I expect that when an authority such as the government, asks me to do something that they have something more then a computer model to offer me as evidence. I do not want to hear statements outlining the future full of might be, could be, we expect, we are looking for and maybe's. I want action based on good solid facts and not hearsay.

I would like to see management of this illness directed at the individuals that have the illness and not those of us who don't. 

As to my circumstances - I am retired. It is fairly easy for me to avoid contact with people. I still have to go out to the grocery store about every ten days. When I go out, I wear some thin vinyl gloves and I have a face mask. I do this because of my wife. I cannot afford for her to get ill as it would mean she would be bed-ridden for the duration. I don't need a government directive to mind my own interests.

There is one thing Mark I can promise you about this whole fiasco and that is when it's over things will be more expensive and less efficient. That's the government way.

[elaine567]

UK is now on the verge of banning outdoor exercise.
People aren't listening, they are taking advantage and risking the lives of others.

Chief Medical Officer in Scotland who every day gives the message STAY AT HOME at the televised press briefing, has been found to be visiting her second home in the country with her husband and kids at the weekends... Photographed applauding the NHS on Thursday at home in Edinburgh, then on Saturday walking with kids on a rural golf course 45 miles away... 
Residents are fed up of people from the city driving up and bringing potential infection to rural spots, police were called, she was given a warning and now I guess her job is on the line... smh.

[schlumpy]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

Chief Medical Officer in Scotland who every day gives the message STAY AT HOME at the televised press briefing, has been found to be visiting her second home in the country with her husband and kids at the weekends...

It's the embedded notion of high authority that there is one rule for us and one rule for the public. It springs from human nature and hubris.

How can you not be skeptical of government officials? 

[mark clemson]

On 4/5/2020 at 5:10 AM, schlumpy said:

We are all being forced onto a run-a-way train.... I expect people to act within their self interest. They can cooperate when it's of mutual benefit but decline when it's not. I expect that when an authority such as the government, asks me to do something that they have something more then a computer model to offer me as evidence. I do not want to hear statements outlining the future full of might be, could be, we expect, we are looking for and maybe's. I want action based on good solid facts and not hearsay.

I would like to see management of this illness directed at the individuals that have the illness and not those of us who don't.

 

Your point about a runaway train is true, but it's also true that we're on a runaway train no matter what. If we're not on the one where we temporarily shut down a lot of stuff, we're on the one where the economy and "normal life" are less affected but hospitals are totally overrun in large cities, and more people die. The economy would probably be affected (just less significantly) due to many people being afraid of catching it and/or giving it to loved ones as the death tolls continue to rise.

You can wish for whatever you want, but you aren't going to get it. No one can "test" a deadly disease on people, so computer models and looking at the what happened in China, Italy, and other places are the best you're going to get. The most important "solid fact" here in the US will be body counts of our fellow citizens and numbers for unemployment lines and shut down businesses that are either higher or lower at the end. That's reality right now, unfortunately.

Self interest isn't working overly well due apparently to people spreading this with minimal symptoms as well as some either not taking it seriously or deluding themselves or simply not caring about harming others. Maybe if it killed a higher % of folks things would be different.

 

On 4/5/2020 at 5:10 AM, schlumpy said:

There is one thing Mark I can promise you about this whole fiasco and that is when it's over things will be more expensive and less efficient. That's the government way.

I tend to agree, but - where's your double-blinded study proving it?

Actually we don't need one. You know because "that's what tends to happen". There are other ways to learn besides controlled experiments, namely induction. Just as we know from past experience that there will be bureaucracy and hassles for at least a while after this is "over", disease experts know some pretty important things from analyzing prior pandemics, watching the disease spread, and watching what happened in places like China and Italy.

Right now, managing "everyone", those who don't have the disease (or know they have it) as well as those who do, is the primary known way to attempt to stop it or at least slow it significantly. There's no right answer, just choices and consequences. Laissez-faire/doing the minimum will probably ultimately do more harm than good as you get the body count AND the economic slowdown (just taking longer) as a huge % of the population gets the disease.

That's the best anyone can possibly know AND a reasonable expectation given prior examples. So that's what they're asking us to do.

Edited April 6, 2020 by mark clemson

[simpycurious]

On 4/3/2020 at 6:50 PM, basil67 said:

It will be challenging to keep it up if the lock downs extend past three months 😬

IMPOSSIBLE to keep this up especially in the US with the arrival of SUMMER.  I already see LOTS of people moving about IN RECREATIONAL pursuits.