Scientific Dictatorship

[basil67]

Given that our infection rates here in Aust are dropping, we are already having cautious talks about reopening.  We have been warned that it may be a zig zag proposal with trial and error and the possibility of tweaking decisions.    I can’t see borders between states opening any time soon, and certainly not international travel.  But if we stay on the same trajectory, I predict we will be seeing cautious changes within a couple of months.   

I don’t know anyone who’s in favour of indefinite lockdown now that we have reason to be quietly confident.  But the US is in a very different situation to us.  You’ll have a tougher time of it, I’m sure,   

[Philosopher]

I am not convinced that long term it is a binary choice between the economy and people’s lives. I think it is possible to reopen the economy over the next few months while at the same time preventing another outbreak. In March, most countries probably had little choice to go into lockdown and to take the economic hit, if they did not they would have had a huge death toll. However assuming the lockdowns work and most of the evidence is that they do, then the number of cases over the next few weeks will fall. Eventually the number of cases will fall to a level where it would be feasible to trace, contact and isolate those infected. Then things can gradually be reopened. There may be a need to restrict some activities such as large gatherings, but for the majority of people life should be able to return to some degree of normality. Countries with larger outbreaks will need to be lockdown longer than those with smaller outbreaks though before they are able to do this.

South Korea has managed to get this virus under control using this approach, without the need for a large scale lockdown. The reason I think this approach failed in most counties is that they did not do enough testing, at least early on, so they did not know who was infected. This allowed the virus spread to get out of control, meaning a lockdown was the only option. 

[elaine567]

Our new crisis in the UK is Covid -19 in care homes. 
2200 care homes are known to be affected in England alone and 92 new outbreaks were reported in one day yesterday...
Care home deaths, hospice deaths and deaths in the community are not added to the official Coronavirus daily death totals which are deaths in hospital, and it is estimated the real death tolls are 15% larger.  
Are care homes in Australia affected, Basil?

[Ellener]

2 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

spike in drug/alcohol use, mental health issues, etc..

we already have those things, for several years now. 

I actually don't think things are any worse overall, just that most people are now way more aware of the situation. It was widely reported in 2019 that four in ten Americans did not have enough money to cover a $400 emergency, and that was with @ a 20% improvement on previous figures: “Short disruptions in pay can cause significant hardship, as most Americans appear to be living paycheck-to-paycheck,” Angela Fontes, director of the Behavioral and Economic Analysis and Decision-Making (BEAD) program at NORC at the University of Chicago, said in the report.

2 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

there are no jobs anywhere....

I don't know where you are but there are tons of jobs here. Grocery, warehouse, and delivery in particular- everyone's hiring to staff the extra demands from the pandemic.

[Ellener]

2 hours ago, elaine567 said:

Covid -19 in care homes. 

That was something we did better with in the US, the care homes were the first places to go on lockdown once the doctors identified them as among the most vulnerable to the illness.

[thefooloftheyear]

29 minutes ago, Ellener said:

we already have those things, for several years now. 

I actually don't think things are any worse overall, j

If an unemployment rate of close to 20%(never happened in your/my lifetime)  means to you that  you "dont think things are any worse"??? then there is no point in continuing the discussion.. I'm essential so I am out every day, the vehicular traffic here is down easily 75-90%...How in God's name can anyone say that it's "business as usual"??

My guess is you fall into one of the categories of people that are unaffected or have nothing to lose....If so, great...let it go to 90%, right?

I don't demean any legitimate work, but no one can afford to live in an outhouse and eat ramen noodles all day here on a grocery clerk pay even if they worked 24/7....Its just the plain facts...

TFY

Edited April 14, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

an unemployment rate of close to 20%

a temporary unemployment rate of 20 % caused by an unprecedented global event. Let's keep things in perspective.

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

My guess is you fall into one of the categories of people that are unaffected or have nothing to lose....If so, great...let it go to 90%, right?

I don't demean any legitimate work, but no one can afford to live in an outhouse and eat ramen noodles all day here on a grocery clerk pay even if they worked 24/7....Its just the plain facts...

Before the pandemic didn't you post that you were unaffected by market financial vagaries because of your sensible business practices over the years? As for me I live within my means which since Harvey is- in one room, I did work in a store last year for extra money, and my 'real' work ended with the nursing home lockdowns weeks ago. But no, I haven't even claimed unemployment yet. 

I plan to apply for one of the new jobs until I can get back to my other work.

 

 

 

[thefooloftheyear]

Just now, Ellener said:

a temporary unemployment rate of 20 % caused by an unprecedented global event. Let's keep things in perspective.

Before the pandemic didn't you post that you were unaffected by market financial vagaries because of your sensible business practices over the years? As for me I live within my means which since Harvey is- in one room, I did work in a store last year for extra money, and my 'real' work ended with the nursing home lockdowns weeks ago. But no, I haven't even claimed unemployment yet. 

I plan to apply for one of the new jobs until I can get back to my other work.

 

 

 

El

No one knows if this is "temporary" or not.... That's the issue and that's the perspective.....If we all thought this was just temporary, then I doubt there would be much concern from anyone...My guess is some make it back to work, many wont, because many businesses will either voluntarily close, or forcibly close due to the fact that people's behavior wont just flip back to the way things were before this lockdown/shutdown.. Will people go back to crowded places anymore?  I dont think many would...

And no where did I say I personally have financial hardship...My numbers are off, sure,  but we are open, I have work,  and I don't owe anyone anything, personally or business wise...I'll be fine....My work is specialized and we had a few years of backlog before,  and so far no one has cancelled any jobs and no one has any plan to ....but I dont know really ...things could change...

The unkown/uncertainty is the real problem here...

TFY

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

The unkown/uncertainty is the real problem here...

It always is tfy, it always was, and one reason why the US needed ( still needs ) health reforms, education cost/debt reforms, checks and balances on wages etc etc etc

To get back to the OP and scientific dictatorship, if we had been listening to advisers and statisticians- large swathes of the US population have been vulnerable economically for decades.

The pandemic affects everyone, everywhere, even if only by inconvenience. Because of listening to doctors there is a damage limitation in terms of the number of dead. As of right now that number is @ 121 716, a tragedy for all those people and their families and communities. 

But still way less than it would have been without the shutdowns.

Be patient. If you're not sick or starving, be glad. Be positive and help and encourage others who are.

There's no other way in a crisis:

'The only way out is through' to paraphrase Frost.

[basil67]

9 hours ago, elaine567 said:

Our new crisis in the UK is Covid -19 in care homes. 
2200 care homes are known to be affected in England alone and 92 new outbreaks were reported in one day yesterday...
Care home deaths, hospice deaths and deaths in the community are not added to the official Coronavirus daily death totals which are deaths in hospital, and it is estimated the real death tolls are 15% larger.  
Are care homes in Australia affected, Basil?

Elaine,it's just that these people in nursing homes aren't added to the stats.   A death in a nursing home was our state's first casualty (via an infected care worker) and a few more deaths have happened there.  All our nursing homes are in lock down and even family aren't allowed to visit - but at least it doesn't seem to be rampant (that I've heard)

[basil67]

8 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I don't demean any legitimate work, but no one can afford to live in an outhouse and eat ramen noodles all day here on a grocery clerk pay even if they worked 24/7....Its just the plain facts...

 

But this isn't a COVID problem.  While I don't know the history of how long the US has allowed certain workers to be paid at rates which are below poverty level, I've been hearing about it for some years.   Perhaps a positive change out of all of this will be that their contribution to society gets more recognition. 

 

[major_merrick]

One of the real problems is inflation.  Years ago, people could make a living on the lower end blue-collar and service industry jobs.  The problem is that the cost of living rose and wages didn't.  One of my husband's friends has newspapers his parents kept from the 60's and 70's.  Midwest region.  Comparing salaries offered vs rent and other necessities, people had a better life 40-50 years ago. 

Another problem is how business runs.  Too many people in the middle between producer and consumer.  Too many things are stolen, destroyed, or wasted in any given process.  So overhead costs for anything are insanely high.  Add taxation into the mix, and probably 50% of what people pay for any given product is simply waste and corruption. 

I don't see a clear way to fix this.  And socialism isn't the answer, as I don't see the common people in other places living a more lavish life than people in the USA.  In fact, quite often things are worse.  And now things are getting worse for all the unemployed people, as their jobs get replaced by "Oh yeah, you can become an overnight grocery store stocker..."  F*** that.  If I needed money that badly, crime pays better.  And I wouldn't be the only person to think that.  Expect a sharp rise in crime and unrest shortly if things don't go back to normal really soon.

[Ellener]

4 hours ago, basil67 said:

Perhaps a positive change out of all of this will be that their contribution to society gets more recognition. 

 

I'm sure it will.

 

[Juha]

On 4/14/2020 at 10:30 AM, Ellener said:

It always is tfy, it always was, and one reason why the US needed ( still needs ) health reforms, education cost/debt reforms, checks and balances on wages etc etc etc

To get back to the OP and scientific dictatorship, if we had been listening to advisers and statisticians- large swathes of the US population have been vulnerable economically for decades.

The pandemic affects everyone, everywhere, even if only by inconvenience. Because of listening to doctors there is a damage limitation in terms of the number of dead. As of right now that number is @ 121 716, a tragedy for all those people and their families and communities. 

But still way less than it would have been without the shutdowns.

Be patient. If you're not sick or starving, be glad. Be positive and help and encourage others who are.

There's no other way in a crisis:

'The only way out is through' to paraphrase Frost.

If you think all the people who are not working will be going back to their that is just unicorn thinking.

20% is absurd to be sure but I would not be shocked if we were at 10%

Businesses are already not going to open back up or will be declaring bankruptcy already.

This is not going to be temporary for many people, the economy is going to struggle, people will not be spending money

This is going to affect many people moving forward and not for the better

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, Juha said:

 

Businesses are already not going to open back up or will be declaring bankruptcy already.

This is not going to be temporary for many people, the economy is going to struggle, people will not be spending money

This is going to affect many people moving forward and not for the better

Some would be anyway. Some are already adapting. Example, where I live restaurants have switched to take out and delivery and have been temporarily allowed to serve alcohol.

People in immediate need can use the stimulus payment and claim benefits here. 

If you want to look on the bleakest outcome that's down to you. It's not very comforting or encouraging to others though. I've been through disaster and the only way forward is to... go forward.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Ellener
wording

[elaine567]

I am amazed at how many who have "businesses" appear to have no capacity to weather any storm.
They are on every night on coronavirus radio programmes seeking advice. 
Hand to mouth existence.. one month or a best 2-3 months between them and bankruptcy. Some with staff some not. 
Last night a guy with four kids and a pregnant wife and a live in MIL was repairing old motorbikes and selling them. Basically he turned his hobby into a business, no money and now no income. What was he thinking? He needed to get a proper job to feed his soon to be 5 kids, not mess round with "business" that was likely going nowhere anyway...
These kind of guys can't recover, unless they happen to hit upon some "gold mine scheme" post lock down.

An economy built on sand perhaps.

Edited April 15, 2020 by elaine567

[carhill]

Just in time everything in a debt-based business economy. We've seen similar at the macro level with no depth to medical supplies and equipment, as examples, in this emergency. Everyone runs lean to maximize short-term profit and returns to owners or shareholders and many, to some degree, depend on science and technology to take things to the ragged edge. We see that across industry types.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 4/11/2020 at 4:22 PM, endlessabyss said:

Hello all -

I was interested in seeing what peoples opinions here are on two people who constantly keep popping up in the news, in regards to Covid-19.  Those two people are this Fauci character and the evil one, Bill Gates.

Frequenting this forum for some time I have gained the impression most lean heavily progressive.  Maybe that has changed, because I haven't been too current.  Anyhow, progressivism is always accompanied with high esteem for science and it's practitioners.

So, I am curious to see if people are comfortable with giving up personal liberties to remain safe from viruses, as what Fauci and Gates are recommending.

Fauci may be a smart guy for all I know, but when he speaks he just doesn't come off that bright; more like a politician than anything else.  He seems to have flip flopped on the sensationalism of this "pandemic".  First it's not very lethal....then it is very lethal. 

Do you believe that humans should never shake hands anymore?

‘I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again,’ Fauci says

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-dont-think-we-should-ever-shake-hands-ever-again-fauci-says-2020-04-08

If so, do you believe we shouldn't hug, hold hands, kiss, have sex?

Furthermore, I was wondering if people are ok with the idea of needing paperwork to prove they are immune from Covid-19, and in the future to prove that you have been vaccinated, to travel and participate in society/gatherings/economy?

"Can you imagine a time where Americans carry certificates of immunity?" Camerota asked Fauci during an interview Friday.

"You know, that's possible," Fauci responded.

And as Gates said: "So eventually there will be this digital immunity proof that will help facilitate the global reopening up." It appears Fauci and Gates are on the same page.

I'm an anti-science guy,  because the institution is too political, and I don't believe these people should have any say so in public policy.  I find it disturbing that this Fauci guy is pretty much running the country right now.  Ron Paul recently said Trump should fire him ASAP,  because he is a threat to civil liberties, and I agree with him.  Gates is just a nutcase, and I've never took him seriously.  He parades himself as a doctor of some sort, when he has no merit.  I often question why he is always making headlines.

 

So, with all that being said, what is your take.  Interested in comments and opinions.

 

First of all, Covid is relatively nothing on the grand scale of what could, and eventually WILL come down upon us.

 

It's like viewing your first lunar eclipse and being so awe-struck by it because you've not lived long enough to see a solar eclipse.

It's like finding a list of  "the 100 greatest stars of  ____________ sport ever" ...  and not bothering to contemplate the extreme improbability that 83 of them are presently in the league today.

(or  " the 100 greatest plays of all time!"   -----     yet conspicuously 72 of them happened after 2010)

 

"Eventually" in those contexts quoted above means (long after most of us are GONE from this earth).

Indeed there WILL be giant, much more contageous viruses which kill 30-70% of everyone they contact...   but, by the time they get here, we'll likely be hard-wired electronically in ways we WANT to be trackable (who knows in 2020 what those will be?)...  and we'll be able to almost view each outbreak coming around the globe to find us.

 

If four people die of such a virus in Indonesia in 2525...  data science will push a couple of buttons and learn instantly the ENTIRE list of people who potentially had close encounters with those 4 people over the past... month, lets say.   SO in that way technology will be much better able to clamp-down on outbreaks.  The viruses will have to get 'tougher' to do parallel damage once that technology arrives.

 

Covid-19, on the grand scale of what could come around the next corner, is but a minor inconvenience that won't really change ANYthing society does as a whole.

 

 

[thefooloftheyear]

15 hours ago, elaine567 said:

I am amazed at how many who have "businesses" appear to have no capacity to weather any storm.
They are on every night on coronavirus radio programmes seeking advice. 
Hand to mouth existence.. one month or a best 2-3 months between them and bankruptcy. Some with staff some not. 
Last night a guy with four kids and a pregnant wife and a live in MIL was repairing old motorbikes and selling them. Basically he turned his hobby into a business, no money and now no income. What was he thinking? He needed to get a proper job to feed his soon to be 5 kids, not mess round with "business" that was likely going nowhere anyway...
These kind of guys can't recover, unless they happen to hit upon some "gold mine scheme" post lock down.

An economy built on sand perhaps.

The "proper jobs" are often provided by  the same people you are criticizing....I'm not talking about a shoestring operation like the one in your example,. but many other larger companies that employ many people...I have business contacts with multi million dollar operations that can't "weather a storm" of the magnitude where all of the revenue taken in by the business basically drops to zero overnight...Sure, we all can ride out slowdowns, recessions, etc, but this is different....Heck, even huge multinational mega corporations can't do it without government bailouts, so I don't know where you are getting this thinking... They need some revenue to continue to service loans/notes/make payroll, etc...They would need to feed that business umpteen thousands(some millions) a week to continue, with no hard plan for what is going to happen down the road...

The "proper jobs" are getting cut by the millions....So much for that, right??

So rather than look down upon them for your characterization of "hand to mouth" existence,  perhaps have a little sympathy for their plight....Not everyone wants to live in a world where all people  work in  cubicles for the government or Google/Amazon....

TFY

Edited April 16, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

The "proper jobs" are often provided by  the same people you are criticizing....I'm not talking about a shoestring operation like the one in your example,. but many other larger companies that employ many people...I have business contacts with multi million dollar operations that can't "weather a storm" of the magnitude where all of the revenue taken in by the business basically drops to zero overnight...Sure, we all can ride out slowdowns, recessions, etc, but this is different....Heck, even huge multinational mega corporations can't do it without government bailouts, so I don't know where you are getting this thinking... They need some revenue to continue to service loans/notes/make payroll, etc...They would need to feed that business umpteen thousands(some millions) a week to continue, with no hard plan for what is going to happen down the road...

The "proper jobs" are getting cut by the millions....So much for that, right??

So rather than look down upon them for your characterization of "hand to mouth" existence,  perhaps have a little sympathy for their plight....Not everyone wants to live in a world where all people  work in  cubicles for the government or Google/Amazon....

TFY

Everything's changing, and some of that may turn out for the good. I am watching businesses all around me scramble to adapt and you can practically predict which ones will survive, through innovative responses to the unusual situation. @elaine567 is only pointing out what social scientists have been saying for a long time in the US, if 40% of Americans can't afford a $400 unexpected bill.

[thefooloftheyear]

1 hour ago, Ellener said:

Everything's changing, and some of that may turn out for the good. I am watching businesses all around me scramble to adapt and you can practically predict which ones will survive, through innovative responses to the unusual situation. @elaine567 is only pointing out what social scientists have been saying for a long time in the US, if 40% of Americans can't afford a $400 unexpected bill.

No disrespect, but you are talking as someone that's never walked in those shoes...Sure...People are gluttonous , fiscally irresponsible and don't save...That's not an indication of poor business acumen....Its just stupidity and irresponsible behavior...Bringing that up now to discuss a hardship sustained by a small business owner in this case is ridiculous...

There is no amount of innovation that can overcome a complete shutdown of an entire country....Nor can most companies on any level weather that for an extended period of time...Many business owners have spent literally years not taking pay or making less than their employees, mortgage their houses, etc,  to sustain viability during tough times...Most clock punchers couldn't bear that thought....But it happens every day......

TFY

[nittygritty]

1 hour ago, Ellener said:

Everything's changing, and some of that may turn out for the good. I am watching businesses all around me scramble to adapt and you can practically predict which ones will survive, through innovative responses to the unusual situation. @elaine567 is only pointing out what social scientists have been saying for a long time in the US, if 40% of Americans can't afford a $400 unexpected bill.

Unless they are breaking even or more, they are just hemorrhaging more money. 
Many of these “non-essential” businesses that have scrambled to try to adapt to keep the doors open are further risking exposing not only their employees but their customers to Covid-19. All that it will take is one person that either works there or went there getting sick and dying from it and also spreading it before their business reputation is damaged. 

[Ellener]

5 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

ou are talking as someone that's never walked in those shoes

Yes I have. 

And I don't think people are irresponsible in the slightest if they can't amass savings etc. People have been struggling for some time, that's not new, people are working two and three jobs.

But it's nice to see you are also concerned about your fellow Americans, and that is the change we need to see- thoughtfulness and compassion- so that everyone gets a fair go.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Ellener
spelling

[Ellener]

4 hours ago, nittygritty said:

“non-essential” businesses

They have been deemed essential businesses.

( I must admit I was surprised that liquor stores and gun stores are deemed essential )

[Ellener]

5 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

No disrespect, but you are talking as someone that's never walked in those shoes...Sure...People are gluttonous , fiscally irresponsible and don't save...That's not an indication of poor business acumen....Its just stupidity and irresponsible behavior...Bringing that up now to discuss a hardship sustained by a small business owner in this case is ridiculous...

There is no amount of innovation that can overcome a complete shutdown of an entire country....Nor can most companies on any level weather that for an extended period of time...Many business owners have spent literally years not taking pay or making less than their employees, mortgage their houses, etc,  to sustain viability during tough times...Most clock punchers couldn't bear that thought....But it happens every day......

TFY

Is your business struggling/badly affected?