The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[amaysngrace]

2 hours ago, elaine567 said:

The article is reporting  a study carried out on those admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
Nothing is said or implied about those who stay at home or are asymptomatic.

You forget to add the people who die on the ward 27%.
So approximately 35% of people who are admitted to hospital with Covid-19 die.
 

How do you get 35% from 27%? 

[elaine567]

13 minutes ago, amaysngrace said:

How do you get 35% from 27%? 

27% die in the ward, 8% die in the iTU = 35% of all patients admitted to hospital

[amaysngrace]

10 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

27% die in the ward, 8% die in the iTU = 35% of all patients admitted to hospital

Is that the same study that has the median age of casualties as being 80?

 

[elaine567]

10 minutes ago, amaysngrace said:

Is that the same study that has the median age of casualties as being 80?

 

No mention of actual age as a separate risk factor in this study as reported. But identifies gender male and obesity as being the  main risk factors for death.

Quote

The most significant health risk factor was obesity, increasing risk of death by 37% – a greater amount than heart disease (31%), lung disease (19%) or kidney disease (25%)

.

[amaysngrace]

It seems similar to the one I glanced at but I still find these studies to be misleading at this point in time. 

We only get one side.  The other side is being shut down, the one that shows how it’s not as terrible as was once anticipated. 

The recovery rate is much higher or should I say the mortality rate is much lower which is a good thing.  I’m not sure why there’s a need to make it seem worse than it actually is like it’s being portrayed in the media.

[sothereiwas]

4 hours ago, elaine567 said:

So approximately 35% of people who are admitted to hospital with Covid-19 die.
Being admitted to hospital is thus no guarantee of survival.

I would think that would be intuitively obvious. If one is sick enough from anything to be admitted (stay overnight or longer) in a hospital that sounds pretty serious to me. A person would probably be pretty sick, particularly in a time when people are avoiding hospitalization due to not wanting to overwhelm the hospital coupled with some fear of being infected if they're not already. 

None of that math says a lot about the odds of dying if infected. 

If anything it says something about the quality of medical care in the UK. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by sothereiwas

[elaine567]

19 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

None of that math says a lot about the odds of dying if infected. 

It never purported to do so...

[sothereiwas]

6 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

It never purported to do so...

Then what bearing does it have on why we're in lockdown? Is it that hospitals in UK are overwhelmed? I honestly don't see the connection. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by sothereiwas

[preraph]

Dallas is being supplied the numbers every day for the virus, the provisions, etc., very transparent and thorough.  But the news is not great.  Our number of cases soared today.  It's 3 times what it was last week. They say this is explained by testing being opened up to not just first responders but also essential workers in grocery stores, etc, so there's been more testing, revealing more virus.  

 

So now it's really hard to go by the numbers.  They are not going to go down unless climate kills the virus.  Because there is still a lot of people to be tested.  So I guess all you can go by is how many hospitalizations, ventilators, and deaths.  Pretty confusing.  

[Art_Critic]

Many more us have it than we realize and maybe a lot longer than we realize, so maybe the lockdowns were too little to late

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/29/the-health-202-millions-of-americans-were-infected-with-coronavirus-and-had-no-symptoms/5ea86d1288e0fa3dea9c4e94/

 

[Redhead14]

5 minutes ago, Art_Critic said:

Many more us have it than we realize and maybe a lot longer than we realize, so maybe the lockdowns were too little to late

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/29/the-health-202-millions-of-americans-were-infected-with-coronavirus-and-had-no-symptoms/5ea86d1288e0fa3dea9c4e94/

 

The lockdowns were too late and we knew that already.  But we had to at least make some kind of attempt to slow it down anyway.

[sothereiwas]

Maybe we did maybe not. In New York, Seattle, and a few places like that yeah, we probably needed to shut down, most of the rest of the country is fine and never got close to hospital overload so probably we shot ourselves in the foot in most of the USA by overreacting. It's been a long time since we had to react to a thing like this and we're out of practice, unlike places that have had SARS, MERS, etc recently. Hopefully next season we can have a more appropriate response in both schedule and scale. 

[nospam99]

An article today on Fox News (no, they're not biased much) claimed that NY never got close to hospital overload either. The obviously visible indicator is the hospital ship that sat mostly empty in NY harbor and now has apparently been sent home. There are also claims that the temporary and field hospitals in the Javitts Center and at Old Westbury were essentially unused. I've never been a fan of the 'boy who cried wolf' no matter how many people voted for him in the last election.

[BC1980]

The thing is that we don't know how bad NYC would have gotten if we just let the virus go through the population like Sweden. We'll never know that, so we have no way of knowing if it was an overreaction. Do you think we should have just rolled the dice and let the virus go through NYC without taking any measures? 

[sothereiwas]

7 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

The thing is that we don't know how bad NYC would have gotten if we just let the virus go through the population like Sweden. We'll never know that, so we have no way of knowing if it was an overreaction. Do you think we should have just rolled the dice and let the virus go through NYC without taking any measures? 

I wouldn't care to guess myself, but just closing shop for the densest parts of NYC, Chicago, Boston, and other hotspots would have been a lot less disruptive than what we've already done. Maybe this fall we can use what we learn to be more targeted and agile in our response, with less overspray. 

[carhill]

I was fascinated to see a direct non-stop flight from Wuhan on China Southern Airlines scheduled to land at JFK in a half hour or so. CZ8419, actually getting in over an hour early, must be favorable tailwinds. Anomaly? Nope, part of their continuing direct service. There's another one Sunday, May 3. The planes are passenger planes but who knows what they're carrying. Looking back a couple weeks, it appears to be Friday, Sunday and Wednesday service. The planes turn and reverse route as CZ8420.

[chillii]

5 hours ago, BC1980 said:

The thing is that we don't know how bad NYC would have gotten if we just let the virus go through the population like Sweden. We'll never know that, so we have no way of knowing if it was an overreaction. Do you think we should have just rolled the dice and let the virus go through NYC without taking any measures? 

l'd say it'd be 5x worse by now .

[amaysngrace]

Last night on Bill Maher he was voicing the same opinion of those two banned Cali doctors on how we are compromising our immune systems by placing well people under lockdown.  

Hopefully liberal media can now catch up since he reaches a broad liberal audience. 

[chillii]

Must admit , on the other side of the coin l do wonder about immune systems too , like too much cotton wool isn't usually a healthy thing . l'd imagine though with this countries would be losing a lot more people before immunity built though.

[beatcuff]

in the 70's when computers first came out the expression was 'gigo': garbage in garbage out.  now we have 'algorithms' that the persons deem infallible or at least cherry pick.

in Massachusetts we get daily updates statewide and by town.  my particular one had the mayor announce 124 new cases yesterday.  then he stated those were due to a lab late reporting... how late ... he continues that those had already recovered.  so nearly 2 weeks late.  but instead of doing what just about every analyst (think GDP, unemployment, etc) would do and revise the prior numbers he just added them which of course (when added to actual new cases) makes it appear the curve is still rising.

this will make for a great case study for years to come on college campuses.

 

[FMW]

42 minutes ago, beatcuff said:

revise the prior numbers he just added them which of course (when added to actual new cases) makes it appear the curve is still rising.

That's happening with other states/regions as well.  That, on top of the changing level of testing over time renders the new case numbers of limited usefulness in assessing where we are. 

[preraph]

4 hours ago, amaysngrace said:

Last night on Bill Maher he was voicing the same opinion of those two banned Cali doctors on how we are compromising our immune systems by placing well people under lockdown.  

Hopefully liberal media can now catch up since he reaches a broad liberal audience. 

Yeah, I don't buy what those Cali doctors were saying.  Because they were implying that we COULD become immune like babies do eating dirt.  We can't.  To get immune on this right now, you have to catch it.  Here is an article on Herd Immunity from yesterday that I found made much more sense.  

 

Before there is herd immunity, the number of people who've had the virus has to be at least 70 percent of the population.  Right now rough estimates, we're only at about 4%. 

https://www.fox4news.com/news/what-is-herd-immunity-and-will-it-protect-us-from-covid-19

[Foxhall]

I think people are happier when they get some government guidelines on the lifting of lockdowns rather than being kept in the dark indefinitely,

its good most countries have gotten to the point where an exit strategy is now being spelt out,

from my own bubble perspective, a date of July 20th for unrestricted road travel is further away than ideal but at least have a timeframe in mind now which can mentally work towards,

makes it easier for a person.

 

 

[carhill]

Quote

In New Mexico, Gov. Michelle Grisham has ordered all roads into and out of Gallup to be shut down after the small town experienced an "uninhibited spread" of the novel coronavirus. She said she authorized the lockdown Friday in response to an emergency request by Gallup Mayor Louis Bonaguidi, who was sworn into office Thursday.

In addition to closing all roads for three days, the order shutters all businesses from 5 p.m. to 8 a.m. each day and prohibits vehicles from carrying more than two people.

Let's hope they don't order up a 7-12. Michael Crichton readers will know what I mean.

[Lotsgoingon]

The strokes doctors are now reporting about the virus--in people under 50--is really odd and scary. The article in the New England Journal of Medicine is that strokes at some hospitals are up 7x normal based on the same two-week period a year ago. And this with young patients ... under 50. 

We can survive strokes, but what's odd is the youth of the people involved ... and these people are apparently slow to accept what the symptoms say ... like slurred speech. Stroke people need to get to the hospital asap. 

Crazy!