The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[carhill]

https://abc7chicago.com/society/lightfoot-threatens-crackdown-after-house-parties-reported-across-chicago/6146656/

As more of this type rhetoric is seen at the same time officials are releasing already adjudicated non-violent and sometimes even violent criminals from jails and prisons, we''ll slip closer and closer to civil war.

Quote

"We will shut you down, we will cite you, and if we need to, we will arrest you and we will take you to jail," Lightfoot said.

Lightfoot and Chicago police are asking residents to anonymously submit tips about any house parties at cpdtip.com.

"We've lost officers to COVID-19, we've lost firefighters to COVID-19. They've given the ultimate sacrifice, willing to risk their lives, to save all of us. For a silly party, you are risking first responders' lives," said CPD Superintendent David Brown.

So, officers risk their lives arresting criminals for crimes against property and humans, put them in jail, then others release them and put them back out in the community and that's not a risk to first responders? Not to mention threatening the public at large, and PTB's are threatening citizens for having a party with family and friends? In my neck of the woods we put threats down, no negotiating, no first responders needed. Keep them safe. Their families need them. We'll take care of the criminals. 👍

Also, at the Sacramento, CA protest yesterday where 33 were arrested, pictures and video showed large swaths of both protestors and police wearing no PPE at all and police were pictured, even away from confronting protestors, as sitting and standing together in large groups. Now, one would think after all that exposure to unknown people they'd wish to be safe and not bring home a potentially deadly virus to their families or get it themselves, right? Apparently they know something we don't!

[preraph]

They're more likely to infect others. That's the problem. It was just dangerous for themselves I wouldn't give two sh#ts.

[thefooloftheyear]

13 minutes ago, preraph said:

They're more likely to infect others. That's the problem. It was just dangerous for themselves I wouldn't give two sh#ts.

I get it....but if it(protest gatherings) can't realistically be stopped, why not see if the risk is as great as they say??  

It could wind up becoming a valuable tool...

This can't just go on indefinitely...In fact, it appears that we are reaching a breaking point with regard to what liberties people are willing to give up no matter what the consequences are...I see no harm In using these groups to gather data on the nature of how this virus propagates...My guess is that they would be willing to comply...

TFY

Edited May 4, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[preraph]

25 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I get it....but if it(protest gatherings) can't realistically be stopped, why not see if the risk is as great as they say??  

It could wind up becoming a valuable tool...

This can't just go on indefinitely...In fact, it appears that we are reaching a breaking point with regard to what liberties people are willing to give up no matter what the consequences are...I see no harm In using these groups to gather data on the nature of how this virus propagates...My guess is that they would be willing to comply...

TFY

If only it were that noble. It's just more politics. I mean if they want to go back to work that bad why are they out in herds protesting instead of working. It's just the same old protesters joining whatever bandwagon the flavor of the month is. 

[BaileyB]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Follow those folks and see if they get infected or there is any way to see if by way of contact tracing( I still don't understand what the concept and execution of that is), it can be determined that mass gatherings of people result in a proliferation of the virus....This could be a great opportunity do a real world evaluation of what they are warning us all about...

Respectfully, this has already been demonstrated. Consider the situation in Newfoundland, Canada.

“that March 16 service has been linked to what provincial officials have dubbed “the Caul’s cluster” after a person who attended a funeral at the home tested positive for COVID-19.

Contact tracing by public health officials had linked 143 known cases to the funeral home cluster as of Friday, about 75 per cent of the provincial total.”

The following link demonstrates how the virus spreads, relative to the seasonal flu. It only takes one... and, medical professionals believe people are at their most contagious 1-2 days BEFORE they become symptomatic. It’s not possible for that many people to gather and NOT spread the virus. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

Edited May 4, 2020 by BaileyB

[preraph]

Dallas is still on the upswing in cases. The temperature here is just now starting to get into the 90s. If anything does happen to make the virus go down, it would probably be heat and humidity. but there are other countries that have already had heat and it hasn't gone away there. 

 

Still, nature has its ways. I have been fighting please the worst case I've ever had for the last 3 months or so every way I know how to do it. And every day I saw fleas on my dog despite all that. Then one day about April 9th or 10th, they just went away. Don't know why.. Sunshine maybe. 

[carhill]

Organisms are programmed to live and viruses mutate, often to non-infectious/non-fatal forms, to continue living. Hard to live when one's method of reproduction is killed off. Nature has its ways of balancing things, including humans. We, however, often think we have the world tamed to our will. This is simply one reminder of many that, no, we don't. That's presuming it was nature at work and not a human engineered virus. Time will tell on that. I need to check back on that de-facto martial law shutdown of Gallup NM and see how that's doing. It got quiet. A quick internet search shows no updates on what is to be a 3 day shutdown. Nothing. I did find this on the Gallup Police Dept. Facebook page, which didn't come up in internet search, interesting... in part......
 

Quote

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Jodi McGinnis-Porter�[email protected]

May 3, 2020

Gallup emergency order to be extended

SANTA FE – An emergency declaration requested by the mayor of Gallup and authorized by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will be extended through noon, Thursday, May 7, per the mayor’s request. The action is intended to continue the aggressive physical distancing in the community and thus mitigate transmission of COVID-19.

 

 

[Philosopher]

4 hours ago, carhill said:

Organisms are programmed to live and viruses mutate, often to non-infectious/non-fatal forms, to continue living. Hard to live when one's method of reproduction is killed off. Nature has its ways of balancing things, including humans. We, however, often think we have the world tamed to our will. This is simply one reminder of many that, no, we don't. That's presuming it was nature at work and not a human engineered virus. Time will tell on that. I need to check back on that de-facto martial law shutdown of Gallup NM and see how that's doing. It got quiet. A quick internet search shows no updates on what is to be a 3 day shutdown. Nothing. I did find this on the Gallup Police Dept. Facebook page, which didn't come up in internet search, interesting... in part......
 

 

I read an article today in a magazine called the New Scientist that suggested the Coronaviruses that today cause common colds at some point in the past few centuries jumped from an animal species to humans and initially caused a pandemic similar in severity to this one before mutating into a less serious common cold illness. The article said a pandemic in 1890 of the flu may in fact have been a coronavirus as one of the Coronavirus first appeared in humans at that time. This coronavirus however has since mutated into something that only causes a common cold.

The implication of this was that Covid-19 in a few years would too become nothing more than another common cold illness. 

[thefooloftheyear]

7 hours ago, BaileyB said:

Respectfully, this has already been demonstrated. Consider the situation in Newfoundland, Canada.

“that March 16 service has been linked to what provincial officials have dubbed “the Caul’s cluster” after a person who attended a funeral at the home tested positive for COVID-19.

Contact tracing by public health officials had linked 143 known cases to the funeral home cluster as of Friday, about 75 per cent of the provincial total.”

The following link demonstrates how the virus spreads, relative to the seasonal flu. It only takes one... and, medical professionals believe people are at their most contagious 1-2 days BEFORE they become symptomatic. It’s not possible for that many people to gather and NOT spread the virus. 

 

With respect given back. what is the best option, then?

Try to stop people from gathering in large groups to protest, etc(which unless the government wants to involve military force we all can recognize, is impossible)..., or perhaps use it to prove the point of why strict lockdowns and isolations are necessary??.... .If in fact it works as you(or that particular study) say, then they'd just have more data to give the population to inform them why gathering en masse is very problematic...

Additionally, we were in the early phase of this (early March as in the case you cited), now we aren't....

I dunno...why waste this opportunity?   My guess is that they wouldn't do it for fear of getting results that don't match with the agenda being put forth..

TFY

Edited May 4, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[schlumpy]

3 hours ago, Philosopher said:

The implication of this was that Covid-19 in a few years would too become nothing more than another common cold illness. 

Researchers claim that they can read the traces of ancient epidemics in human DNA. According to them the virus wrote itself right into the code sequence. Very interesting that our superior, newly evolved life form has been constantly tested and shaped over the ages by that which has a single purpose in life which is to survive.

[chillii]

l agree with some l don't mind some states of some countries or some countries doing something different as long as it's not mine because personally l don't want the bastard and l think lockdown is the best way tbh . But hell yeah letem go for it we get free crash dummies and who knows something else might work better in the long run until there's a vax or this thing just goes away or whatever,.

sOme of the new reports out in the last wk or so man this things scary as hell it seems to be modifying itself , adapting and finding new ways to attack , so until they come up with something no effg way l want it running loose around me,

[chillii]

lsn't it just mind boggling lately the things becoming more and more to light at just what the ramifications of all this could be to the world though , like industry , economies and especially say airlines. l mean they simply could not hold out with whole fleets of planes sitting around for too long , they just couldn't there's just too much cash involved in running airlines , so many of them could very easily go broke if this went on too long . But so could do so many other things .

And just of late you start to realize too if there was no vax or it didn't just settle down or go away the effects on our lives and the way we're living right now could actually need to settle in for a very long haul , it's just effg mind boggling .  Personally l think there'll be a vax pretty soon they're trialing all sorts of things as we speak all over the world and on real patients and everyday there's something new butttt, what if , you know.

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by chillii

[sothereiwas]

35 minutes ago, chillii said:

l agree with some l don't mind some states of some countries or some countries doing something different as long as it's not mine

Some of the states who are least infected are actually those who didn't lock down, but I suspect the lack of lockdown is influenced by the lack of infections and not the other way around. 

[nittygritty]

I read that New York was requiring nursing home facilities to accept elderly covid-19 patients.  No wonder they have had so many deaths.

Edited May 5, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator

[sothereiwas]

4 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

I read that New York was requiring nursing home facilities to accept elderly covid-19 patients.  No wonder they have had so many deaths.

They are currently sitting at almost 1300 deaths per million, with NYC driving a lot of that. Upstate is not nearly as bad as the city from what I'm told by people in the area. New Jersey doesn't have NYC to push it up but they're in second place with almost 900 dead per million. 

[elaine567]

19 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

read that New York was requiring nursing home facilities to accept elderly covid-19 patients.  No wonder they have had so many deaths.

 I have heard the same was happening in the UK.
Hospitals were desperate to get rid of the "bed blockers" so sent them out to homes with no testing to show they were not shedding virus.
Big outbreak on the Isle of Skye in a nursing home, this week. 2 dead, 30 out of 34 residents are proven infected plus 27 staff, all infected.
We have an army testing module on site so all are getting the tests they need, the same can't be said for other care homes in past weeks.
No idea where this outbreak came from, but it shows the infectivity of the virus.

[gaius]

18 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I dunno...why waste this opportunity?   My guess is that they wouldn't do it for fear of getting results that don't match with the agenda being put forth..

Because there is no opportunity here. As Bailey said, there's already a wealth of information out there about how the virus spreads.

It's like you're suggesting we should let a bunch of people light themselves on fire to see what happens. Because that might teach us something. But we know what happens already. Unless you haven't really paid much attention to how fire burns.

It's also funny you think a bunch of rednecks who are mad their civil liberties are being violated are going to cooperate with contact tracing. Yeah  those guys are prime candidates to sit down with someone from the government and list out all the places they've been and people they've been in contact with. Or even better, let authorities track their phone. I think we can safely throw that whole line of thought in the trash.

Edited May 5, 2020 by gaius

[thefooloftheyear]

5 hours ago, gaius said:

Because there is no opportunity here. As Bailey said, there's already a wealth of information out there about how the virus spreads.

It's like you're suggesting we should let a bunch of people light themselves on fire to see what happens. Because that might teach us something. But we know what happens already. Unless you haven't really paid much attention to how fire burns.

It's also funny you think a bunch of rednecks who are mad their civil liberties are being violated are going to cooperate with contact tracing. Yeah  those guys are prime candidates to sit down with someone from the government and list out all the places they've been and people they've been in contact with. Or even better, let authorities track their phone. I think we can safely throw that whole line of thought in the trash.

There may be wealth of information, but a lot of it isn't consistent and much of it doesn't follow the 'trend" that has been put forth by many of the experts...And they'd probably agree with that characterization..

They still really have no explanation why the death toll/rate in states like FL/Texas is so relatively low in comparison to places like NY/NJ....The combined population of those two states is more than double that of NY/NJ yet have a death count is merely a fraction of what it is here....Yes, I realize there is population density to consider, but then there are also areas of those states that have densely populated areas,  as well as very high percentage of "high risk" folks.......Additionally, as its been out for a while now, there are families(we all probably know some, I know I do) where one person got pretty sick and no one else did, or they got very mild symptoms, nothing like what the one person had, despite being in close direct contact with them for the entire time....and despite the fact that they all tested positive for infection...So all this "wealth of information" is there, but there are numerous inconsistencies....

And as for the protest crowds, for one, I am not, nor never suggested they protest in the first place, so perhaps go back and re read it...All I suggested was that if you aren't going to be able to feasibly stop people from gathering en masse, then maybe its time to start evaluating what happens when they do...It doesn't only apply to the protests, it can be the folks going to the beaches, the parks, whatever....So again, no idea where you drew that conclusion by what I posted because nothing suggests that...And re: the Michigan protests, you are just reacting the way the media wants you to,....They show you video of some scruffy looking guys that look like "rednecks" toting guns so you can believe that those are the only one's out there not happy with their perceived governments over reach of power....Its not just them...not by a long shot...And perhaps my suggestion wouldn't be feasible, but at least it's a suggestion...I tend to disagree that all would be unwilling to cooperate, as I do think some(many) of those people congregating in groups would want some justification for their cause/side,. But whatever....

I've been out every day as an essential, so I see what has happened since the outset...Far more traffic, far more activity, despite no real relaxing yet here...That tells me that not just the Confederate flag wearing 2nd amendment folks have had enough...Its not feasible to stem the tide, so maybe its time to start implementing some testing criteria and perhaps reporting some of what effect that is having on the spread,  so that we all have a better handle of what's happening...

TFY

 

[sothereiwas]

Flattening the curve isn't about reducing the number of total cases or shortening the time the virus is among us. The area under the curve (the total cases) doesn't change under that plan, and the time is extended by design. Flattening the curve is about keeping the case load under the capacity to treat, while developing more capacity and better treatments. Once the immediate danger of exceeding capacity is passed the measures taken to flatten the curve should be relaxed. Mission accomplished. This is why Sweden made the choice they made; they have intentionally made a choice to protect the vulnerable and allow the virus to spread, as long as medical capacity wasn't exceeded they will have as short a curve in the time dimension as possible.

 

[chillii]

Depends , here they hope to mostly get rid of the damn thing all together unless a vac comes along , and be in a position of pouncing onto anything new popping up , we've got very low numbers compared to most countries and over 90% of those have fully recovered now so it is possible and working . But you know , later on with things opening up again and international coming to and from again well , who knows. We see.

Edited May 5, 2020 by chillii

[sothereiwas]

18 minutes ago, chillii said:

But you know , later on with things opening up

Unless borders stay closed there will be a second wave in a scenario like this most likely. There historically always is. This thing isn't dying out, all it takes is one of over 7 billion, or one more bowl of bat stew in Wuhan. 

[BaileyB]

9 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Flattening the curve isn't about reducing the number of total cases or shortening the time the virus is among us. The area under the curve (the total cases) doesn't change under that plan, and the time is extended by design. Flattening the curve is about keeping the case load under the capacity to treat, while developing more capacity and better treatments. Once the immediate danger of exceeding capacity is passed the measures taken to flatten the curve should be relaxed. Mission accomplished.

Indeed, one of my favourite facebook quotes this week demonstrates this concept in a different way. We have flattened the curve, so they are beginning to relax restrictions... That’s a good thing, our health care systems haven’t been overrun in the same way that has happened in NY, Spain, and Italy. 

But relaxing restrictions doesn’t mean that the treat of the virus has changed. It simply means that they have room for you at the hospital. Infections are likely to rise, and when they no longer have room for you at the hospital the restrictions will be put in place again... 

Edited May 5, 2020 by BaileyB

[Redhead14]

12 minutes ago, enigma32 said:

What do we want to do, stay in our homes until there is a vaccine? Does anyone really think that is a viable option? I don't. 

People who are high risk don't have a choice.  They will be living like this indefinitely until there is a vaccine.  If the people who are low risk or would likely only suffer milder symptoms want to start going about their lives and take that risk, they should do that.  I just feel like a month and half is too soon especially since other countries were locked down longer and are still fighting outbreaks.  I feel like we shouldn't waste the effort we've already put in.  A couple of weeks isn't going to change much overall as far as the economics of things go.

But, it seems like the majority are blowing it off anyway and already going about their usual routines again for the most part.  Even here in rural Jersey people are shopping like usual, not for a couple of weeks at a time and flooding the nurseries and ignoring distancing guidelines.  The high risk people will not have any chance of any kind of normalcy for a very, very long time if this is what's going to happen -- keep giving the virus hosts.  But, oh well.  Tough s***, chew harder high risk peeps.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Redhead14

[FMW]

11 minutes ago, Redhead14 said:

The high risk people will not have any chance of any kind of normalcy for a very, very long time if this is what's going to happen -- keep giving the virus hosts. 

What are your thoughts about how long everyone should remain at home?  If we don't have a vaccine for 18 months (personally I feel it will come much sooner, but that's just my opinion) do you think everyone should remain as is?  The virus is always going to have hosts.   

My view on it all, for what it's worth, is I'm not ready to be out freely mingling right now.  I certainly don't want my 73 year mother out and about (although it appears she will likely be doing that much sooner than I will, I can't stop her).  But at the same time I don't find it feasible or reasonable to keep things shut down for too much longer.  The economy really does matter.  Government support (unemployment, food stamps) can't go on at this increased rate for long without causing dire economic consequences, especially with the massive decline of money coming in to the government coffers with the majority of business at a halt.  An economy in ruin will threaten everyone's health, not just those at high risk for viruses.    

Emotional and mental health really do matter, and a crisis in this area is already brewing.  

There is no good answer, but I think the reasonable one lies somewhere between "shut up and stay inside until someone tells you you're allowed to go out" and "party at the beach, we're invincible".     

 

    

[FMW]

On 5/3/2020 at 9:01 PM, thefooloftheyear said:

Maybe we should let them be a "test group".

I already to see them as a test group, an experiment, along with the others who are crowding back into public areas with the new state openings this week.

I'm appalled at some of the pictures I see, but at the same time I'm hoping maybe the results won't be as catastrophic as some are predicting.  I certainly hope and pray they won't be - I would be very happy to have my fears proven wrong.  

Unfortunately the police and medical professionals will bear the burden if the experiment goes wrong.  Certainly makes me queasy.