The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[BaileyB]

47 minutes ago, FMW said:

What are your thoughts about how long everyone should remain at home? 

I think there is a reasonable middle ground between shuttering the economy and staying at home until we get a vaccine. Going to the beaches, movies, nail salons, protesting... that’s not middle ground. That’s entitlement. Selfishness. Stupidity. Where I live, restrictions are lifted and things are being opened up but people are still being asked to stay home as much as possible and go out only to see family (preferably outside and from a safe distance), exercise (from a safe distance), and for essentials. The poll on the news tonight said 70% of people don’t plan to go to the malls and restaurants - even though they are open. What’s more, something like 95% of respondents said this pandemic is going to absolutely change the way we live. Just my opinion, things can’t stay shuttered until we get a vaccine but neither do we need to be gathering en mass to go the beach, mall, or protest. That’s first world privilege at its finest, and it will be a tough lesson to learn... Sadly, the people who are likely to pay the highest cost are not going to be the people at the protest... that seems unfair, but it’s the sad reality. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by BaileyB

[preraph]

^ I agree Bailey.   I do think we're going to go through these times at least another couple of times before there is a vaccine.  If we're really lucky, the summer may help tamp it down.  But the sun doesn't get inside people's homes or Amazon boxes, so it would just be a tamping down, but it would help.  They do know it reacts to what they call solar, heat, + humidity.  

 

I think it will just have slowed down when it will be fall and ramp up again.  And then I bet we have one more spring to get through and then maybe a vaccine.  People need to get used to wearing masks and being careful, but there will always be a big parcel of people who won't because they're too arrogant and selfish.  That said, of course, we want people back at work, but it needs to be a whole lot more sanitary and people a lot more considerate than the messy b**tch at my office.  

 

And the other things, the scary thing is that they know this virus is to some extent bioaerosol, meaning without sneezing or coughing, just the minute moisture from a person's breath when they're just breathing or talking has been measured in the air.  What they don't yet know is if it's enough of it to infect, but because so many healthcare workers are getting it fully masked, etc., I think that kind of shows it is enough if you're there long enough. They have measured it in rooms people who had covid were moved out of.  Open air is safer than anything closed off or recirculated air.  You couldn't pay me to get on a plane anytime soon.

[sothereiwas]

1 hour ago, BaileyB said:

Going to the beaches

Socially distancing on a sunny beach seems like the definition of a good idea. The rest of those places didn't sound good at all. 

[BaileyB]

2 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

Socially distancing on a sunny beach seems like the definition of a good idea. The rest of those places didn't sound good at all. 

I agree, but the beaches were so crowded it looked impossible to socially distance. And then, there are the washrooms, the concession stands... 

[chillii]

Went up into our main city today , here lockdowns are still on but in a reasonable type of way no one hassles you you still go where you want apart from obvious silly things which aren't really open anyway, resterants and stuff. But anyway it was good to see the city was starting to move again , like sensible but moving, l'd say at about 5o% so nothing was too crowded . One good idea every place we went into had a bottle of sanitizer at the checkout so you could use that before you left the counter , simple but effective . lt's only a small city so l'm hoping business survive this and it was really nice to see people still out and using them a bit. We actually went in to spend money there rather than online .

[Gaeta]

Up here we were suppose to start deconfinement this past Monday but it didn't happen. We have reached a plateau but it's not coming down so too risky, we stay in another 2 weeks. Everywhere I need to go I wear a home-made mask. I am surprised very few does. At this point I'd like we reopen a chunck of the economy and make mask wearing mandatory. If we all wear masks the transmission rate goes down to .01%

[carhill]

After railing at state government and Gavin Newsom for 'forcibly imprisoning residents', apparently Elon Musk is putting his money where his mouth is and taking Tesla out of California. Buh bye huge car manufacturing plant and big dollar jobs and tax revenues. 👍

[thefooloftheyear]

…..…………...

Edited May 10, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[basil67]

TFY, you've got cats, we've got rats.  We live within a stone's throw of a restaurant strip and all the now empty bins have left the rats looking further afield for food.  They made friends with our hens and have been seen together planning their evening shenanigans.   I tried to catch the rats and do a quick drowning, but they managed to trigger the traps and not get caught - or they gently steal the bait and leave before the trap is triggered.  I bought a really expensive trap with a pnuematic killing device but they look at it and laugh with their beady ratty eyes.  So the neighbours and I have ended up baiting. And one neighbour's cat has taken out about six rats during the month.

I've got no advice about the feral cats.  Letting them die would be the obvious answer, but it's hard when the kitties are cuter than rats.

And if anyone has advice on how to trap rats, I'm all ears.

[schlumpy]

I've helped a lot of cats over the years. I have three insulated dog houses on my deck that get used now and then. At the moment I have rather large gray male cat with a hurt front leg that I'm providing food and shelter to. He isn't feral. He's someone's leftovers from when they moved. I can't just bring a stray in as I have four cats of my own and I have to guard their health. 

Sometimes all you can do is provide some shelter, food and water and that has to be enough.

If there is a rescue group in your area that does catch and release see if they would be interested in neutering or spaying your outside friends. Better for your new ward and much better for you. It kills the multiplication factor and I've seen too many die from Feline Leukemia Virus. It's not pleasant to watch. 

[thefooloftheyear]

2 minutes ago, basil67 said:

TFY, you've got cats, we've got rats.  We live within a stone's throw of a restaurant strip and all the now empty bins have left the rats looking further afield for food.  They made friends with our hens and have been seen together planning their evening shenanigans.   I tried to catch the rats and do a quick drowning, but they managed to trigger the traps and not get caught - or they gently steal the bait and leave before the trap is triggered.  I bought a really expensive trap with a pnuematic killing device but they look at it and laugh with their beady ratty eyes.  So the neighbours and I have ended up baiting. And one neighbour's cat has taken out about six rats during the month.

I've got no advice about the feral cats.  Letting them die would be the obvious answer, but it's hard when the kitties are cuter than rats.

And if anyone has advice on how to trap rats, I'm all ears.

Where are all the snakes?  It may be getting too cold for them...They do a pretty good job on the rodents, but those things breed so efficiently, nothing can keep them at bay...

TFY

[schlumpy]

4 minutes ago, basil67 said:

TFY, you've got cats, we've got rats.  We live within a stone's throw of a restaurant strip and all the now empty bins have left the rats looking further afield for food.  They made friends with our hens and have been seen together planning their evening shenanigans.   I tried to catch the rats and do a quick drowning, but they managed to trigger the traps and not get caught - or they gently steal the bait and leave before the trap is triggered.  I bought a really expensive trap with a pnuematic killing device but they look at it and laugh with their beady ratty eyes.  So the neighbours and I have ended up baiting. And one neighbour's cat has taken out about six rats during the month.

I've got no advice about the feral cats.  Letting them die would be the obvious answer, but it's hard when the kitties are cuter than rats.

And if anyone has advice on how to trap rats, I'm all ears.

Cats can be an answer Basil as you mentioned. Not all cats are interested in catching rats and once they find out that's what you want them to do their very nature demands that they stop doing it.

Many years ago I had some rats to get rid of. I used a bait box with holes only the size a rat could get into so as to keep out any possums,  raccoons, dogs, cats or other pets. That worked really well. The bait I used was loaded with warfarin which is a common blood thinner but in high doses will cause internal bleeding. 

[chillii]

So many experts and countries like Japan warning about 2nd waves in opening too early but l can't find much evidence of second waves . Japan's went up they say 1000% but it it looks like that was 1000% of only 2 or 3 cases which isn't that much for such a population . And l can't see what happened after that 1000% , similar with Sth Korea , can't really find any numbers on 2nd waves with any countries .

[carhill]

I drove to the nearest big town about 30 miles away yesterday to make a bank deposit and while I was all alone at the outdoor ATM I gazed across the drive at the full shopping center parking lot and people standing in long lines outside the Starbucks with their 'social distancing' and with some wearing masks. Myself, shorts, T-shirt, flip flops driving my old car as usual, some Mexicans offered me 7 grand cash for it while sitting at a stoplight, I laughed. Anyway, other than that Starbucks thing, traffic into town and in town didn't appear much different from historical forever. Population is a bit over half million with under a dozen deaths and under 1000 confirmed cases, most of which are reported as recovered. So, if people not obeying SIP and/or lockdowns ending is a factor, we should see a spike in cases around Memorial Day. The tracker I follow has a timeline slider so it'll be easy to check.

[elaine567]

30 minutes ago, chillii said:

So many experts and countries like Japan warning about 2nd waves in opening too early but l can't find much evidence of second waves . Japan's went up they say 1000% but it it looks like that was 1000% of only 2 or 3 cases which isn't that much for such a population . And l can't see what happened after that 1000% , similar with Sth Korea , can't really find any numbers on 2nd waves with any countries .

Hokkaido Island Japan

Quote

Assuming that they had weathered the storm - and keen to get the local economy operating again - local authorities lifted the state of emergency on March 19, with schools and businesses reopening.

With hindsight, experts agree, it was too early and, just 26 days later and after 135 new infections were reported in the space of a week, the lockdown was reimposed on Hokkaido’s 5.3 million residents.

“At the time, we didn’t have enough information and we did not have an adequate understanding of this disease”, said Yoko Tsukamoto, a professor of infection control at the Health Sciences University of Hokkaido.

“And, given the information that was available - that new cases were down to one or two a day - it could be argued that the governor made the right decision in lifting the state of emergency”, she told The Telegraph.

“We know that was the wrong move now, but then it seemed the best thing to do”.

These countries are on hair trigger, they want "rid" of the virus, one case is too many.
Countries like the US and the UK are knee deep in virus and death, and are trying to downplay it's significance. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by elaine567

[sothereiwas]

10 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

they want "rid" of the virus

Yeah, and I want surefire winning lottery numbers. Wanting something doesn't mean it's possible. If we restrict ourselves to dealing in the realm of the possible, the proposals will not look as rosy but they will at least be, well, possible. 

[chillii]

Knew someone would've seen numbers thanks for that , 135 in a wk though l'd hardly call a 2nd wave twice as bad would you . With their experience in handling it by then you'd think they could knock that off rather than shut down again. l dunno , just thoughts , God only knows.  lt all sure put an end to those riots they were having didn't it.

[schlumpy]

13 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

Countries like the US and the UK are knee deep in virus and death, and are trying to downplay it's significance. 

If the daily death rate for the US was published in large numbers on TV screens every night as is the death count for Covid, I think Americans would understand that death is always with us. The last time I checked the average mortality rate for the US was about 8,000 per day rounded up. I believe that number was suppled by one of the UN departments. I assume it's from all causes.

Put that up on the screen every night and let anguished and emotional news anchors spew that out and see what kind of national mindset is created.

Should everyone be tested to determine their death date? There are a few scientists that claim they can determine your lifespan with your DNA.

[elaine567]

We all live quite "happily" with death every day..
We take our chances, we live with our diseases and disorders.
BUT the main problem with this virus is the word that is often applied to it -  "exponential".
All out assumptions about our own personal risks and those of the people we know may be out of the window in an instant if this virus is allowed to run freely.

[sothereiwas]

11 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

If the daily death rate for the US was published in large numbers on TV screens every night as is the death count for Covid, I think Americans would understand that death is always with us. The last time I checked the average mortality rate for the US was about 8,000 per day rounded up.

Thanks.

When you're dealing with large numbers, the numbers tend to be large. A lot of Americans are bad at math. 

[FMW]

A month from now we'll have a better idea of what the reality will be in loosening the lock downs.  

My 73 year old mother attended church in my home town 200 miles away from me this morning.  She said they sat at least 6 feet apart, but she was the only one wearing a mask.  

Last week one of my friends who lives in a town/county about 25 miles from me had her nails done, had her hair cut and colored, had lunch in a restaurant, and went to the Gym.  Her house is for sale and she's having potential buyers in for viewings as well.  

My city is still locked down, and I have to say I'm not raring for it be opened right now.  I've become a bit phobic at the thought of doing any of those things for some time to come.    

At the same time I know that businesses can't stay locked down much longer, the harm is already much more far reaching and serious than a lot of people are comprehending.  

In addition to the staggering unemployment and government aid (at a time when little money is being paid into the government), that damage includes health care.  All of the major health care/hospital systems in my city have furloughed many thousands of their employees.  At least one has suspended the matching contribution to employee 401(k) acounts because of their financial problems related to everything but absolute emergencies and coronavirus patients being shut out.  

Preventative care has been suspended for two months now, and it's unclear for how much longer.  Cancer screenings which can improve the survival rates are not being done.  The number of patients presenting at hospitals for heart attacks and strokes is reportedly way down.  I think it's highly unlikely that's because they aren't happening - people just aren't seeking treatment which would provide the chance for full recovery and longer term survival.

In my opinion, the ongoing scorched earth approach to this virus isn't sustainable or wise.  A task force that includes medical, business and economic professionals could be formed to find a more tempered and reasonable approach.  Right now it just seems they are all shouting each other down.    

 

[sothereiwas]

25 minutes ago, FMW said:

My 73 year old mother attended church in my home town 200 miles away from me this morning. 

She's a free adult person, but this seems like approximately the opposite of the smart way to reopen things. I hope it works out well for her. 

 

26 minutes ago, FMW said:

At least one has suspended the matching contribution to employee 401(k) acounts because of their financial problems related to everything but absolute emergencies and coronavirus patients being shut out.  

I've been pondering a few other things as I linger over my Sunday coffee, such as how many cancers have not been diagnosed in the last month. How many are detected in a typical month I wonder? How precious is that lost 4-6 weeks going to be for those people? I'm sure there are other sorts of repurcussions I've not yet considered. 

[FMW]

I absolutely agree about my mother attending church.  But as you indicated, she's an adult and does as she pleases.  She's in no doubt of my opinion on the topic, but just like with my friend out and about last week, I'll express my opinions but I won't harass them.

As to the healthcare issues, I think that this gap in general health care and screenings will absolutely result in more deaths.  We'll be hearing about those statistics somewhere down the road.    

[Foxhall]

I am curious what the UK posters make of Boris Johnson's easing of lockdown,

"stay alert" rather than "stay at home"

Personally this is the approach I am in favour of, I think there has to be a limit on the number of weeks of keeping people very tight to their homes,

I think there has to be scope of movement and at the end of the day it is up to people to look after themselves when they are out and about; if they wish to stay at home let them stay at home but people should have the choice.

 

[basil67]

10 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Where are all the snakes?  It may be getting too cold for them...They do a pretty good job on the rodents, but those things breed so efficiently, nothing can keep them at bay...

TFY

We're urban.  A snake would be handy, but none to be seen around here