The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[BC1980]

28 minutes ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

Well, it's not even summer yet. It's not like it happens within weeks of one ending, I wouldn't think. From the beginning I've been hearing fall as the projected period, which is normal for viruses, like the flu for example.

ETA: I don't think those bumps/uptics are what are meant by the "second wave" - that's just the inevitable increase in infection as businesses, etc. reopen and people are in closer contact again. I mean that's what experts have been saying too. We bunkered down, we saw numbers begin to flatten. We began to open up, numbers have gone up again. Not unilaterally, it depends upon a lot of things, including how often testing is being done and how many people are symptomatic enough with the right cluster of symptoms to be tested, etc. but yeah. This was predicted.

The "second wave" is projected to be a seasonal thing, like the flu, starting in the fall, more serious than these bumps up with reopenings due to all the usual factors and that's what hopefully states are preparing for. Still also theoretical is that, also like seasonal flu, 19 will "just" mellow out or appear to disappear during the summer months...we'll see if that happens. These projections are all really more or less based on how the flu behaves, AFAIK.

You're right. If there is a 2nd wave, its predicted to peak between November or January. 

[elaine567]

Quote

26 May 2020 • 6:09pm Telegraph
Second more deadly wave of coronavirus expected 'to hit Europe this winter'
European countries should brace themselves for a deadly second wave of coronavirus infections because the pandemic is not over, the World Health Organisation’s top official in Europe has said. 

In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, Dr Hans Kluge, director for the WHO European region, delivered a stark warning to countries beginning to ease their lockdown restrictions, saying that now is the "time for preparation, not celebration".

Dr Kluge stressed that, as the number of cases of Covid-19 in countries such as the UK, France and Italy was beginning to fall, it did not mean the pandemic was coming to an end. The epicentre of the European outbreak is now in the east, with the number of cases rising in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, he warned. 

Countries should use this time wisely and start to strengthen public health systems as well as building capacity in hospitals, primary care and intensive care units, he said. 

"Singapore and Japan understood early on that this is not a time for celebration, it's a time for preparation."

...He also warned that a second wave could coincide with an outbreak of other infectious diseases.

“I’m very concerned about a double wave – in the fall, we could have a second wave of Covid and another one of seasonal flu or measles. Two years ago we had 500,000 children who didn't have their first shot of the measles vaccine," he said.

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by elaine567

[Philosopher]

11 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

You're right. If there is a 2nd wave, its predicted to peak between November or January. 

I was looking on Worldometer today to see if what is happening in the seasonal Southern Hemisphere countries. Australia and New Zealand are not getting any acceleration in the number of new cases as they head into their winter. However both those countries are regarded as having dealt with it very well and they probably have completely or almost completely eliminated local transmission.

In Argentina and Chile on the other hand the number of cases has sharply increased over the last few weeks.

This to me suggests that a second wave at the end of year in Northern Hemisphere countries is likely unless countries can get it completely under control and reduce transmission to a very low rate in the summer months. 

[BC1980]

Good points. It could continue on at a steady rate or even drop off some during the summer before making a resurgence in the fall. Some colleges in the US are considering stopping the semester in November in anticipation of this possibility. 

[Ellener]

'During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.'

WHO

[sothereiwas]

3 hours ago, BC1980 said:

Some colleges in the US are considering stopping the semester in November in anticipation of this possibility. 

I wouldn't be shocked if schools do something to accommodate parents who don't want to stop distance learning quite yet in the fall. We will see. Not everyone needs a publicly funded babysitter. 

[BC1980]

24 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

I wouldn't be shocked if schools do something to accommodate parents who don't want to stop distance learning quite yet in the fall. We will see. Not everyone needs a publicly funded babysitter. 

Can you do public school online? I swear I've heard that's an option before. 

[CaliforniaGirl]

32 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

I wouldn't be shocked if schools do something to accommodate parents who don't want to stop distance learning quite yet in the fall. We will see. Not everyone needs a publicly funded babysitter. 

That doesn't make sense, there is already such a system in place. ETA: do you personally know public school teachers, to state that they're babysitters? Just curious. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by CaliforniaGirl

[CaliforniaGirl]

6 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

Can you do public school online? I swear I've heard that's an option before. 

Yes. K 12 dot com. ETA: Oh, also Connections Academy...you have to work it all out, it's not just necessarily one direct set of courses but yes, it's available.

Edited May 26, 2020 by CaliforniaGirl

[sothereiwas]

57 minutes ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

Yes. K 12 dot com. ETA: Oh, also Connections Academy...you have to work it all out, it's not just necessarily one direct set of courses but yes, it's available.

Those are for homeschooling, we are presently not enrolled as homeschool but the entire state is doing remote learning. It's a different albeit similar thing. One of my nieces is homeschooled and I see them with Connections Academy swag, so I'm pretty sure that's what they are using for home schooling. We are using the same online resources that school used for in-classroom teaching, plus a few other supplemental things. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by sothereiwas
sp

[CaliforniaGirl]

1 hour ago, sothereiwas said:

Those are for homeschooling, we are presently not enrolled as homeschool but the entire state is doing remote learning. It's a different albeit similar thing. One of my nieces is homeschooled and I see them with Connections Academy swag, so I'm pretty sure that's what they are using for home schooling. We are using the same online resources that school used for in-classroom teaching, plus a few other supplemental things. 

As I said, I'm not sure how this would require a large change, since all the resources are there.

[sothereiwas]

5 hours ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

As I said, I'm not sure how this would require a large change, since all the resources are there.

As I said, we're doing it now, all they have to do is facilitate those who wish to continue by allowing the same system to run again. No, it's not home schooling. They still have a teacher, who is remote. 

[CaliforniaGirl]

2 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

As I said, we're doing it now, all they have to do is facilitate those who wish to continue by allowing the same system to run again. No, it's not home schooling. They still have a teacher, who is remote. 

That's a lot of extra work for those people you claim are babysitters. It's more than just assigning stuff. I doubt what you're looking for will happen. These parents will have to put in the work to make it work. And they can, if it's important to them and they're not afraid of a little elbow grease. Many, many parents make it work. They have plenty of time before the start of the new school year so it's the perfect time to start doing some research. Parent groups can be tremendous help too. Good luck!

[thefooloftheyear]

The second wave(if we see it) perhaps will likely consist of mainly those who basically quarantined themselves since this started....I wouldn't be surprised if the people who have been out and about and/or working all this this time will be fine...

That's the one part of this that remains to be seen, as we have never done this with any other bug....I am not suggesting that it was a waste, because I do think we could have maybe over run the hospitals and increased the death toll....Maybe this is just has to be what needs to happen to get to the other side of this...I dunno...

TFY

[elaine567]

Second wave will pick out the people who are not immune, likely the people with as yet no contact with the virus.
In UK it is thought by academics reporting this week that approx 5.2% of the population had caught the virus up till the end of April.
In some hot spots that may rise to 15-20%, with some places in the country being almost virus free.
As we ease the lockdown and head into the colder weather, with people huddled together in poorly ventilated spaces then opportunities for the virus to gain strength again will increase.
The UK Govt at the daily press briefing raised the subject of localised lockdowns yesterday to the horror of some who I guess thought it as all over bar the shouting.
But it is very far from over, people need to be more realistic in their expectations.
 

Edited May 27, 2020 by elaine567

[QuietRiot]

17 hours ago, Philosopher said:

I was looking on Worldometer today to see if what is happening in the seasonal Southern Hemisphere countries. Australia and New Zealand are not getting any acceleration in the number of new cases as they head into their winter. However both those countries are regarded as having dealt with it very well and they probably have completely or almost completely eliminated local transmission.

In Argentina and Chile on the other hand the number of cases has sharply increased over the last few weeks.

This to me suggests that a second wave at the end of year in Northern Hemisphere countries is likely unless countries can get it completely under control and reduce transmission to a very low rate in the summer months. 

Don't trust world O Meter, just the John Hopkins website.

[Ellener]

5 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I dunno...

Wisest words of the whole topic! 'Intellectual humility'.

That's the thing isn't it, no one does know, people can only make best case judgments depending on what's going on where they're at and how situations play out, then learn from it all.

And show gratitude for all who serve and care, and compassion for the sick, dying and bereaved.

 

[carhill]

Don't worry, it's an epidemic in California 👍

[sothereiwas]

10 hours ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

I doubt what you're looking for will happen. These parents will have to put in the work to make it work.

Well, as I said .... we're doing it now. We will see if they opt to continue this next year, and if not, whether it will be offered as an option. 

[Eternal Sunshine]

22 hours ago, Philosopher said:

I was looking on Worldometer today to see if what is happening in the seasonal Southern Hemisphere countries. Australia and New Zealand are not getting any acceleration in the number of new cases as they head into their winter. However both those countries are regarded as having dealt with it very well and they probably have completely or almost completely eliminated local transmission.

In Argentina and Chile on the other hand the number of cases has sharply increased over the last few weeks.

This to me suggests that a second wave at the end of year in Northern Hemisphere countries is likely unless countries can get it completely under control and reduce transmission to a very low rate in the summer months. 

Australia never even had a real first wave. They have prepared extra hospital space (banning all elective surgeries), purchased extra ventilators, had thousands of the healthcare staff on standby but even at its' worst, regular hospitals were well under capacity. Around 100 deaths for 25 million people and current new cases are on average under 20 a day. The lockdown has been just as stringent as the more affected countries though. It remains to be seen what is going to happen heading into winter and with lockdowns easing. Easing started on 11th of May and hasn't affected the numbers so far.

I am a bit annoyed that politicians are patting themselves on the back on how well they handled the pandemic when there wasn't really anything to handle. It's all due to natural advantage of being a remote, not densely populated country.

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

I am a bit annoyed that politicians are patting themselves on the back on how well they handled the pandemic when there wasn't really anything to handle.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't?! Other very remote places got hit by not immediately imposing travel restrictions and quarantines and lockdowns. You did good.

The fact you have any new cases should be closely studied, I think, and probably is being: what keeps the chain of an infection going, why don't the last residual viruses just die off...probabilities and factors making the difference between one sick person or millions. 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

9 hours ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

Australia never even had a real first wave. ... It's all due to natural advantage of being a remote, not densely populated country.

More like... almost nobody wanted to leave the Aussie summer for all of the comforts of the northern winter...    and those who did, were probably off skiing somewhere, with nature, and not in too many crowded hotspots.

 

More of "it" is due to so relatively few people traveling to OZ from some early Covid hotspot.

[CaliforniaGirl]

10 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Well, as I said .... we're doing it now. We will see if they opt to continue this next year, and if not, whether it will be offered as an option. 

Yes, because your entire school system is doing it right now, correct? It's doubtful that when schools reopen, they'll still have distance learning as an option from those specific schools, for specific students as a choice, simultaneously with in-class public school going on. If you'll want to continue distance education once public schools are open you will need to pursue it yourself and links are above to get you started. Hopefully those will help. 

[carhill]

Limited operation of hair/cosmetology related businesses scheduled to start up presently, I in the majority of CA counties. Some are still locked down, Bay Area being one area.

I'm listening to a riot/protest developing in Los Angles downtown right now, A couple CHP cars busted up some citizens down, ostensibly due to the video of the police killing of a suspect in custody in Minneapolis but no doubt frustrations with lockdowns are playing a role too. Still light so hopefully they can settle it down before the looting starts. The helicopter video I saw looked pretty nasty. Not 1992 level nasty and hopefully won't get there.

[Libby1]

It seems like people have pretty much lost interest in lockdown and social distancing just now.  Where I live, we're into lockdown easing measures.  One of my most strictly adhering friends has contacted me to say that he's coming round to see me, and when I've been out I see loads of people making little or no effort to stay 6 feet away from other people.  In the oddly named Durdle Door, down in England, three people injured themselves seriously after hurling themselves off a cliff into the sea...so vast areas of the beach were cordoned off by police, while beach-goers were crammed together in one part.

Meantime, in the US rioting provides an opportunity for infected people to become super-spreaders while they're vandalising and burning buildings in other people's cities.  From what I can glean quite a large number of ordinarily law abiding Americans have decided that this behaviour is justifiable because the rioters are angry about the police killing of George Floyd, and they hate Trump  No doubt another couple of weeks and Covid-19 will be back in the headlines as we reap the consequences of these various excursions and misadventures.