The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[schlumpy]

3 hours ago, Libby1 said:

  From what I can glean quite a large number of ordinarily law abiding Americans have decided that this behaviour is justifiable because the rioters are angry about the police killing of George Floyd, and they hate Trump  No doubt another couple of weeks and Covid-19 will be back in the headlines as we reap the consequences of these various excursions and misadventures. 

I'm certainly not one them but I will acknowledge that many excuses are being made by people who should know better. My approach would be simple. I would take the fire pump trucks and fill them with an aromatic scent like essence of skunk. I would then hose down the protesters. Riot over.

[Libby1]

6 hours ago, schlumpy said:

I'm certainly not one them but I will acknowledge that many excuses are being made by people who should know better. My approach would be simple. I would take the fire pump trucks and fill them with an aromatic scent like essence of skunk. I would then hose down the protesters. Riot over.

Those riots certainly smell of something, given the organised aspect to them and the celebrities who are boasting about bailing the ones who've been arrested.  Whatever regime change people think they're bringing about, I very much doubt it's going to impact negatively on the finances of people who have been tweeting out pictures of themselves enjoying a very luxurious lockdown in their mansions.

[schlumpy]

5 hours ago, Libby1 said:

Those riots certainly smell of something, given the organised aspect to them and the celebrities who are boasting about bailing the ones who've been arrested.  Whatever regime change people think they're bringing about, I very much doubt it's going to impact negatively on the finances of people who have been tweeting out pictures of themselves enjoying a very luxurious lockdown in their mansions.

There are legitimate people in the crowd that are there because they believe the police are brutalizing black people. If they would spend a half hour reading FBI statistics they would find out that that category of outrage has been dropping over the years and is now a very minor statistic as opposed to black-on-black crime. Be that as it may, I recognize their right to protest except that's not what they are doing.

My wife and were discussing the situation last night. She thinks that if the protesters were to assemble peaceably downtown. They could surround the State Capital and hold up signs bearing the thoughts of their grievances. They could do this in silence for an hour and then leave. The message is given that the media could not ignore.

What they do destroys the message they claim they want to deliver.

I can only imagine what the rich are doing since I have no acquaintances that I would describe as rich. I did read an article about rich people flying out to isolated areas taking with them medical staff. If I could I would send them a copy of  Edgar Allen Poe's "Masque of the Red Death."

I would point out another beneficiary of this violence and that's gun manufacturers and the surge in the sale of arms.

[QuietRiot]

15 hours ago, Libby1 said:

It seems like people have pretty much lost interest in lockdown and social distancing just now.  Where I live, we're into lockdown easing measures.  One of my most strictly adhering friends has contacted me to say that he's coming round to see me, and when I've been out I see loads of people making little or no effort to stay 6 feet away from other people.  In the oddly named Durdle Door, down in England, three people injured themselves seriously after hurling themselves off a cliff into the sea...so vast areas of the beach were cordoned off by police, while beach-goers were crammed together in one part.

Meantime, in the US rioting provides an opportunity for infected people to become super-spreaders while they're vandalising and burning buildings in other people's cities.  From what I can glean quite a large number of ordinarily law abiding Americans have decided that this behaviour is justifiable because the rioters are angry about the police killing of George Floyd, and they hate Trump  No doubt another couple of weeks and Covid-19 will be back in the headlines as we reap the consequences of these various excursions and misadventures. 

 

Yep, and we'll be RIGHT back where we started like back in March. I'm waiting this out until July 4th and the canaries in the coal mine start hitting Disney theme parks come July 1. I predict a surge in numbers come AFTER the 4th of July holiday.

[elaine567]

The lag is 2-4+ weeks, that is when people start showing up in hospitals and some of them will go on to die.
Had we had test, track and trace up and running then we may have been able to get a handle on the virus, as it is we i guess are relying on the unproven "seasonality"  of the virus and hope. 
In the UK the Dominic Cummings affair has ruined the desire of many to comply with anything, so even test, track and trace may struggle to be effective even when it is up and running.
I suppose it s better to let it rip and then deal with the admissions/deaths just now while things are relatively quiet than wait till the flu season starts at the end of the year. 
I see they are also letting the clinically vulnerable "the shielded" out too...I guess that is not for the good of their health...

[schlumpy]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

I suppose it s better to let it rip and then deal with the admissions/deaths just now while things are relatively quiet than wait till the flu season starts at the end of the year. 
 

That is a valid observation. The strategies being employed will stretch the mortality out over a period time. I don't believe it can affect the numbers unless every single person can be isolated, at the same time for two or three weeks.

We don't have the capacity to deal with the logistics.

[Philosopher]

Lockdowns are definitely good for getting the virus under control when the number of cases are increasing exponentially, as was the case in most of Europe in March. However they clearly can’t be in place until a vaccine is found. Ignoring economic considerations, without harsh enforcement, people are going float the rules at some point and start meeting up, humans are after all social animals. Added to that schools have to reopen at some point. School kids missing proper education for one or two years is going to massively harm their future prospects. You can probably keep closed until the summer vacation, but that I reckon is the longest you can keep them closed. 

Therefore that I think leaves two choices long term (there may be others I have not thought about). Use aggressive contact tracing and isolation or let the virus spread in a controlled way as what they are doing in Sweden. Aggressive contact tracing seems to have worked in South Korea. I don’t know about other countries, but in the UK, I think it is going to require some big changes for it to be effective. For example those requested to isolated should receive their full wages rather than sick pay (about a quarter of the minimum wage here for a full time worker) but there may need to be other incentives or punishments to get people to comply.

Letting it spread in a controlled way almost certainly will result in more deaths and there is always going to be the risk it gets out of control again and I not sure the public will obey a second lockdown say in October so well. In the UK at least letting the virus spread even in a controlled way is deeply unpopular, the phrase ‘herd immunity’ has very negative connotations here. In the US from what I read opinion however seems more divided on letting it spread vs suppressing the virus. 

[Libby1]

In London there are thousands of people participating in protests against George Floyd's murder.  Up until as recently as yesterday people were being arrested for attending protests in breach of lockdown, but I doubt the police will dare to do anything about this one.   I think we have the third worst covid-19 rate in the world per capita.  It's about to get a whole lot worse, but the Government will struggle to impose another lockdown in light of all the inconsistencies that have been applied.  

[sothereiwas]

At this point it's people looking for an excuse to protest. All along really. Arrest(s) have been made people, we don't do summary executions. I believe the lockdowns have people on edge and some people are just naturally closer to that edge. 

 

Edited May 31, 2020 by sothereiwas

[QuietRiot]

8 hours ago, Libby1 said:

In London there are thousands of people participating in protests against George Floyd's murder.  Up until as recently as yesterday people were being arrested for attending protests in breach of lockdown, but I doubt the police will dare to do anything about this one.   I think we have the third worst covid-19 rate in the world per capita.  It's about to get a whole lot worse, but the Government will struggle to impose another lockdown in light of all the inconsistencies that have been applied.  

Holy crap, even in LONDON?!

[Libby1]

12 hours ago, QuietRiot said:

Holy crap, even in LONDON?!

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/06/01/global-reaction-to-george-floyd-protests-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn

Obviously there's a lot to say about that story, but sticking to the issue of lockdown and Covid...protests of this size can't peacefully be stopped, even if they breach lockdown rules - and trying to prevent them non-peacefully will only exacerbate the situation.

I didn't vote for the current UK government, and I've little time for them - but when these protests result in a massive second wave in a couple of weeks, I will absolutely not be joining the inevitable chorus of voices blaming the government for it.

[sothereiwas]

Locally, my county has petitioned for a transition to phase 2 next week, where gatherings of less than 100 will be permitted as long as social distancing can be maintained and a few other ongoing restrictions. 

[thefooloftheyear]

All we've been hearing is that "the virus "doesn't care" about this and the virus doesn't care about that, and this is why it's vital to stay isolated and observe all CDC recommendations about lockdowns, masks, distancing and such...

Well...I guess the virus cares about George Floyd??🙄

At this point then,. if the experts wont condemn these massive protests and gatherings, then why should anyone do what they are saying?  Businesses are still suffering enormously, people can't see their loved ones etc...

TFY

Edited June 7, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[Libby1]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

At this point then,. if the experts wont condemn these massive protests and gatherings, then why should anyone do what they are saying?  Businesses are still suffering enormously, people can't see their loved ones etc...

TFY

I'm still employing social distancing measures, as are most people I know.  However, where I live protests are not being encouraged by any of the local political parties.  There are options for people who want to participate in what now seems to be a global protest by displaying art work or signs at designated places or in their homes, but that's about it. 

I think the moment politicians and other leading figures start encouraging a protest based on "this matters more than limiting the spread of covid-19" then they've lost all authority and right to tell other people which of their needs and values they are permitted to prioritise above limiting covid's spread.  

[lana-banana]

We have data thus far to suggest that COVID-19 spreads most rapidly in recirculated air, and less rapidly outdoors. Our local health officials offered the advisement that gathering outdoors is safe even if social distancing can't be maintained as long as masks are worn at all times and hand sanitizer is readily available. They said the protests themselves are less likely to spread the virus than people taking public transport to get to those protests, so they emphasized the importance of walking or driving privately, bringing your own hand sanitizer and maintaining total mask compliance. Indoor protests or gatherings anywhere there's air conditioning are still a no-no.

I was concerned about major spikes after the protests, but it doesn't appear that there was a spike after Memorial Day (although there were some clusters of outbreaks). The east and west Coast remain on track with new positive cases down, while it continues to rise in parts of the south and midwest. At this point my biggest fear is it coming back in the fall when no one's prepared for it and having to start lockdowns again.

 

[schlumpy]

Well Lana, we shall find out in a couple of weeks. Right? That's the incubation period. We have to give all these socially conscious young people a chance to go back home and infect their parents, grandparents and babies.

I hope it doesn't happen.

[lana-banana]

Yes, we'll find out in 2-3 weeks. I hope it doesn't happen either, and seeing everyone wear masks consistently and clean their hands throughout makes me optimistic. 

[elaine567]

18 minutes ago, lana-banana said:

I was concerned about major spikes after the protests, but it doesn't appear that there was a spike after Memorial Day

Memorial day was only 13 days ago, far too early to see a rise in hospital admissions and deaths which are the more accurate indicators of the disease.

[thefooloftheyear]

So....where was this "data" when people were losing their minds over maybe a few hundred people going to the beach?

No one can convince anyone with a functioning brain that thousands of people. sweating and screaming, basically asses to bellies, is "safer" than maybe a few dozen people a day patronizing a small business (that still has to lock down)…..Its just nonsensical...

You had the mayor of LA locked arm in arm with protestors while he was offering bounties of cash for people to drop a dime on legitimate businesses trying to open... Its absurd...

TFY

Edited June 7, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[elaine567]

"outdoors" is only safer when  the viral particles are sufficiently far apart to render disease unlikely.
If there are thousands of people crammed into a small space then it makes no difference if they are outdoors or not.
One person shedding virus can infect all others around them.  

 

[Philosopher]

 

1 hour ago, Libby1 said:

I'm still employing social distancing measures, as are most people I know.  However, where I live protests are not being encouraged by any of the local political parties.  There are options for people who want to participate in what now seems to be a global protest by displaying art work or signs at designated places or in their homes, but that's about it. 

I think the moment politicians and other leading figures start encouraging a protest based on "this matters more than limiting the spread of covid-19" then they've lost all authority and right to tell other people which of their needs and values they are permitted to prioritise above limiting covid's spread.  

I suspect there will be some increase in cases from the protests, however given the protests are outdoor and most protesters are wearing masks I think the increase in cases will be limited. The biggest issue I think is that it gives the impression that social distancing is widely not being adhered to. In the UK there have been three weekends in row where the news is about some people not adhering to social distancing. Two weekends ago there was the Dominic Cummings scandal, last weekend it was the crowded scenes on beaches and this weekend it is the protests. 

The authorities are in a bit of catch 22 situation with these protests. In the UK they are technically breaking the law, however if they tell those at the protests to go home and fine those who refuse, then I think there is a high chance of further protests. Therefore discouraging the protests but letting them go ahead is probably the best move. 

 

[QuietRiot]

Considering this recent report about Florida, it's about time to shut it down, but Governor DeSantis says we're pushing through through the phases (phase 2). So feel free to cough on each other and spit-talk into each other's faces Floridians.  

This time they can be all "Florida Man/Woman" cases

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by QuietRiot

[chillii]

On 5/31/2020 at 5:51 AM, Libby1 said:

It seems like people have pretty much lost interest in lockdown and social distancing just now.  Where I live, we're into lockdown easing measures.  One of my most strictly adhering friends has contacted me to say that he's coming round to see me, and when I've been out I see loads of people making little or no effort to stay 6 feet away from other people.  In the oddly named Durdle Door, down in England, three people injured themselves seriously after hurling themselves off a cliff into the sea...so vast areas of the beach were cordoned off by police, while beach-goers were crammed together in one part.

Meantime, in the US rioting provides an opportunity for infected people to become super-spreaders while they're vandalising and burning buildings in other people's cities.  From what I can glean quite a large number of ordinarily law abiding Americans have decided that this behaviour is justifiable because the rioters are angry about the police killing of George Floyd, and they hate Trump  No doubt another couple of weeks and Covid-19 will be back in the headlines as we reap the consequences of these various excursions and misadventures. 

 

 

Yep , should be hitting the fan from about here on in, think you guys already are .

Noticed on a world virus thingo l check every few days , the USA just went from around 5,000 cases per mill already 1000s more than most countries , up to 6100 case per mil, been about 2 wks hasn't it since they started , timing fits writings all over the wall. Over the next mth or so you guys are gonna become the proud world record record record breakers . lf that is it only just starting to show now, you'll probably get to 7 - 8 k over the next mth or so.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by chillii

[Libby1]

9 minutes ago, chillii said:

Yep , should be hitting the fan from about here on in, think you guys already are .

Noticed on a world virus thingo l check every few days , the USA just went from around 5,000 cases per mill already 1000s more than most countries , up to 6100 case per mil, been about 2 wks hasn't it since they started , timing fits writings all over the wall. Over the next mth or so you guys are gonna become the proud world record record record breakers . lf that is it only just starting to show now, you'll probably get to 7 - 8 k over the next mth or so.

 

Where I am, we've gone right down - only 18 new cases yesterday.  People aren't really bothering to give eachother that wide a berth, and hardly anybody wears a mask...but we're kind of quite reserved people where I live anyway, and a bit of social distancing comes naturally.  When I go to other places, I'm often a bit taken aback by how "in my face" other people get, and how loudly they speak (shouting probably propels the virus a fair bit).

England & Wales are a different matter.  They're still getting between 1000 and 2000 cases every day...that's down from what it was though.  In early May they were getting 6000 new cases some days.  As a whole, the UK is now up to 40,000 deaths so UK is unquestionably doing worse than the US given the population difference.  We're second worst in the world, with Belgium topping the covid deaths per capita charts. You guys are still something like 9th or 10th worst on the list.  Quite a few European countries are ahead of you.  

At the moment, the UK chart is still showing a continuing decrease in new cases, while your chart shows your cases have started going up again...but your protests started before ours...and I think in a few days time we're going to start seeing a similar climb.  Of course, it might just be a brief climb before a return back downwards...and I know a lot of people seem to be optimistic that the protests won't cause a spike since they took place outside.  That seems a bit overly optimistic to me, but I guess we'll know in a week or so.

[schlumpy]

Yes. It doesn't look like it's over yet. I'll hang on to my mask for a few more weeks and keep my distance. I don't begrudge others for making different choices as long as they stay a respectful distance away.