The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[basil67]

10 hours ago, chillii said:

Yeah well actually the virus expert l was talking about in the first post said very similar stuff and was pointing a lot of stuff out about flu and others . He basically said the price of paying for all this in the way they're doing it will be much higher than that of just letting it run it's course.

I have yet to hear an Australian virus expert saying that we're going overboard in combating this.  Rather, at the start of all of this, they were scathing at how little our government was doing.   And for the record, when compared to other countries Australia is predicted to have one of the more severe economic outcomes. 

News today says that 75% of Aussies agree with current restrictions and shut downs.  I guess we value human life more than the economy.   We got through the Great Depression and we can do it again.

[SumGuy]

6 hours ago, schlumpy said:

... the best way was to handle the outbreaks and isolate them. It certainly would have been a lot cheaper.

That part is certainly true, but it requires testing and procedures in place to do so.  If a disease is only contagious when symptomatic it is pretty straight forward, but all the data suggests COVID-19 is contagious when you are asymptomatic, and for days before you show symptoms.  It is like everyone can be a Typhoid Mary with COVID-19.  

It could of been done as well, with some proactive foresight and testing, if what was happening in China was taken as seriously as epidemiologist said it was, and money and effort poured into getting tests made.  But that is not what happened in the US, now we pay the additional price of denial and delay.   

[gaius]

It definitely would have been preferable to restrict travel early and focus lockdowns mainly on the infected areas.

The only reason you have to close all the restaurants and unessential businesses in many areas is because someone from an infected place could travel there. We could have saved wide swaths of our economy from shut down and done well in containing the virus at the same time.

With the PPE shortage we also could have directed what we had way more efficiently. To the medical providers in areas with outbreaks. To the truck drivers who still have to travel and interact with people along the way. And to those at shippers/receivers who have to deal with them. 350 million Americans wouldn't have suddenly needed masks.

That's how China was so successful in containing it. They put travel restrictions on the entire country but not everything was under lockdown. Combine that with an adequate testing system that allows you to determine where the virus is and apply further quarantines/restrictions to that area and you win. 

[Ellener]

6 hours ago, basil67 said:

News today says that 75% of Aussies agree with current restrictions and shut downs.  I guess we value human life more than the economy.   We got through the Great Depression and we can do it again.

Exactly.

[chillii]

 

Personally l don't see what choice any country or state of a country has if this thing takes off in that particular place . To me the ultimate gamble would be not locking it down.

[basil67]

So in Aus, we're now talking about making a tracking app so that if someone gets the virus, it's easy for the heath dept to track down others who were in the same vicinity at the same time.   If we can get a large enough uptake, we can start to loosen restrictions in a month.   There are so many privacy issues around this tracking app and the govt will have to do a great sell to get people to take it up.  For example, an end date to tracking and an agreement that it won't be upcycled to do another role in the future.  On the flip side, 40% of Australians tried Pokemon Go which used tracking data, so perhaps there will be an uptake.   And those of us who use social media have all our details out there somewhere...     I'm keen to get back to a more normal life and get the economy started again, so I would do the app.

[Redhead14]

I have a very old phone.  It's an old QUERTY slider phone.  I can't use apps on my phone.  I refuse to purchase an IPhone or Android and pay for the data.  If the government wants to buy me a new phone and pay for the data plan, great.  I'm not opposed to the tracking system though.  I'm 61 anyway and have AFib, so I just have to stay home and away from everyone anyway unless there's a vaccine or better remedy for when someone catches it. 

[preraph]

Our numbers of cases are still rising daily in Dallas, but today the governor rolled out the tentative plan for loosening restrictions, starting with allowing unrelated doctor visits.  

 

Next week, they may open some restaurants with capacity restrictions, which I am happy for, but I am waiting a week or two because I'm still high risk.  But I don't think it's any worse at my favorite place, which has good spacing than bringing in all the goods and deliveries that have to be decontaminated.  I'll still only have contact with the server.  I'll bring my own disinfectant (I was doing that before the lockdown, saw it coming) and wipe my chair and everything, table, everything I touch and then go wash hands.  

 

BTW, the place no one wipes down that is frequently very dirty is the underside of chairs where people place their hands to pull themselves up to the table.  

Edited April 17, 2020 by preraph

[Redhead14]

How is it possible that China, who clamped down like a bear trap on the virus and the people, remained in lock down for about 4 months as well as Italy before they felt it was safe enough to loosen up and we (the US) have only been in lock down for about a month or so and they are talking about loosening things up in a couple of weeks?  The virus "retreats" better for the US than anywhere else???

Edited April 17, 2020 by Redhead14

[thefooloftheyear]

Just now, Redhead14 said:

How is it possible that China, who clamped down like a bear trap on the virus and the people, remained in lock down for about 4 months as well as Italy before they felt it was safe enough to loosen up and we have only been in lock down for about a month or so and they are talking loosening things up in a couple of weeks?  The virus "retreats" better for the US than anywhere else???? 

I'd say the biggest reason is that the population there is more dense than it is here(outside of places like NYC)...And hence, I fully expect NYC/Metro to be probably the last place to "let the dogs loose", so to speak....Just a thought..

TFY

[preraph]

Thing is no one knows if China really did clamp down and there's a lot of suspicions that they let it go on longer than they admit to.  We don't KNOW what China really did.  We never do.

 

NYC should be the last place to break quarantine.  People are packed in like sardines there and they are nearly all used to eating out and being out of their tiny apartments passing the time instead of staying at home.  So it's a big old problem there.  

Edited April 17, 2020 by preraph

[Ellener]

@mrs rubble Here's the NZ success story https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52344299 ( wasn't sure which thread it belonged so put it here )

[Highndry]

On 4/13/2020 at 8:01 AM, Happy Lemming said:

On my morning news (local) they have a crawl running at the bottom of the screen that says the coronavirus can travel 13 feet away from an individual. 

I have heard as much as 24 feet. That would render the 6 feet almost useless. The interesting thing about "science" is that two scientists can come up with completely different conclusions.

[CAPSLOCK BANDIT]

On 4/16/2020 at 11:53 AM, preraph said:

Capslock, there are no masks available to the general public.  They are being used for medical and first responders.  There is nowhere to get a real mask that would do any good.  That's why people aren't wearing them.  We're told to make one and then not try to reuse it.  So until there's disposable masks available to everyone, that's how it is.  Reusing them isn't going to work.  People have to touch them to get them on and off to even wash them.

 

What I've heard so far is the virus shows no signs of mutating.  

I understand what you are saying, but the reality of being a hospital worker in a pandemic, mask or not, is a very grim one; outside of an actual Ebola Suit, most apparatuses are not going to protect them.

What needs to happen is that hospitals need a second intake building, where workers and people who are already sick, can be at.

The masks dont actually protect you from getting the virus, their function is to impede the sick people from breathing on and infecting every surface around them... Surface contact has more potential to infect people than anything else right now; they are saying COVID-19 is active for up to 17 days on a surface, depending on what the surface is.

I guarantee you every healthcare worker who is in a hospital serving covid patients has covid.

[d0nnivain]

I watch the protesters who want to be liberated on TV & I want to cry.  Living near NYC I've seen this & already lost 5 people to this "hoax".   Fortunately I have also had 5 people get it & recover, including one person who was supposed to be ventilated but there weren't any available.   What is going to happen to all those rural places with tiny hospitals when all those protesters come down with this at the same time?  It's one thing if they get a case that resolves while they stay home but what if a large percentage of them need medical care?  I fear rural America is going to wipe itself out by demanding to be free. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by d0nnivain

[BC1980]

7 hours ago, CAPSLOCK BANDIT said:

I understand what you are saying, but the reality of being a hospital worker in a pandemic, mask or not, is a very grim one; outside of an actual Ebola Suit, most apparatuses are not going to protect them.

What needs to happen is that hospitals need a second intake building, where workers and people who are already sick, can be at.

The masks dont actually protect you from getting the virus, their function is to impede the sick people from breathing on and infecting every surface around them... Surface contact has more potential to infect people than anything else right now; they are saying COVID-19 is active for up to 17 days on a surface, depending on what the surface is.

I guarantee you every healthcare worker who is in a hospital serving covid patients has covid.

I'm interested to see if I'm an asymptotic carrier or have antibodies. I've been taking care of patients with COVID for the past month, so I wouldn't be surprised if I have had it or end up getting it. We all know that PPE isn't fool proof. There are simply too many surfaces to touch and too many ways to cross contaminate yourself. The biggest risk is supposed to be when you are taking PPE off. 
 

A lot of healthcare providers got Ebola during the 2014 outbreak in Africa, and they were wearing much more PPE than me. Two nurses in Texas got Ebola from taking care of a patient in a Dallas area hospital. 

[Redhead14]

17 minutes ago, d0nnivain said:

I watch the protesters who want to be liberated on TV & I want to cry.  Living near NYC I've seen this & already lost 5 people to this "hoax".   What is going to happen to all those rural places with tiny hospitals when all those protesters come down with this at the same time?  It's one thing if they get a case that resolves while they stay home but what if a large percentage of them need medical care?  I fear rural America is going to wipe itself out by demanding to be free. 

I live in a very rural area and we've only had 33 cases and 3 deaths (all very elderly people).  No one is protesting here.  No outcry although I've observed a couple people who seemed like they weren't all too concerned about it.  Everyone here is required to wear a face covering of some sort so everyone is doing that much at least.  But if we had a significant upsurge, the hospital would be in trouble.  We have one main hospital and a "satellite" hospital which is small and more like an EMO but has rooms/beds but they don't handle significant trauma, etc.

The protesters want liberty, it's ok with me if they get death . . . have at it.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Redhead14

[BC1980]

6 minutes ago, d0nnivain said:

I watch the protesters who want to be liberated on TV & I want to cry.  Living near NYC I've seen this & already lost 5 people to this "hoax".   Fortunately I have also had 5 people get it & recover, including one person who was supposed to be ventilated but there weren't any available.   What is going to happen to all those rural places with tiny hospitals when all those protesters come down with this at the same time?  It's one thing if they get a case that resolves while they stay home but what if a large percentage of them need medical care?  I fear rural America is going to wipe itself out by demanding to be free. 

Rural America will either be okay because they are rural, or they will be in a lot of trouble due to lack resources. I imagine it could be a mix depending on the area. Many rural hospitals would be overwhelmed with something as routine as a flu outbreak. We've had several rural hospitals close in the past few years due to funding in my state, which puts stress on the entire system. Patients don't stop showing up because a hospital closes; they are simply funneled into another hospital. 
 

I think we've done a good job in my state so far. We are supposed to peak this week, and we had the most cases reported on Sunday. My state is mostly rural, and I'm really hoping that has worked in our favor. Some of the stuff happening is really terrible though. I worked on my regular unit Sunday, and we had a patient that was dying from CHF and COPD. A miserable way to die, and he was doing it with no family. Just hard to see that kind of stuff. 

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, d0nnivain said:

I watch the protesters who want to be liberated on TV & I want to cry.  Living near NYC I've seen this & already lost 5 people to this "hoax".   Fortunately I have also had 5 people get it & recover, including one person who was supposed to be ventilated but there weren't any available.   What is going to happen to all those rural places with tiny hospitals when all those protesters come down with this at the same time?  It's one thing if they get a case that resolves while they stay home but what if a large percentage of them need medical care?  I fear rural America is going to wipe itself out by demanding to be free. 

Sorry for your loss.

Thinking of NY and praying.

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, BC1980 said:

Two nurses in Texas got Ebola from taking care of a patient in a Dallas area hospital. 

Here is the outcome of that, they both recovered after treatment- younger patients recover better with Enola too https://www.livescience.com/48498-ebola-dallas-nurse-recovery.html

[Libby1]

28 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

I think we've done a good job in my state so far. We are supposed to peak this week, and we had the most cases reported on Sunday. My state is mostly rural, and I'm really hoping that has worked in our favor. Some of the stuff happening is really terrible though. I worked on my regular unit Sunday, and we had a patient that was dying from CHF and COPD. A miserable way to die, and he was doing it with no family. Just hard to see that kind of stuff. 

My heart goes out to you and everybody else who's working on the front line right now.  Wherever we are in the world, we owe you all a huge debt.

[BC1980]

18 minutes ago, Libby1 said:

My heart goes out to you and everybody else who's working on the front line right now.  Wherever we are in the world, we owe you all a huge debt.

Thanks, but I feel like I'm just doing my job. I didn't volunteer for it, so I don't feel like any kind of hero. I was hoping things would slow down, but we just had an outbreak at a LTC facility near my hospital and received 13 COVID patients in 24 hours. To put that into perspective, we have 66 cardiac beds (not including ICU beds), and we would never expect to receive 13 MIs through the ER in a 24 hour period. That would be really hard for our cath lab. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by BC1980

[FMW]

On 4/17/2020 at 2:21 PM, preraph said:

I'll still only have contact with the server. 

I was talking with my mom about this earlier today.  The problem is that the server is having contact with everyone else throughout their entire shift, plus in contact with other servers.  So if one person a sever comes in contact spreads the virus, that server then can spread it to their coworkers and all their subsequent customers. 

I'm interested to see what happens with all the places that start opening restaurants in the next few weeks.  I so very much miss having a social life, but I'm thinking it will be at least another month before I would feel at all comfortable.  And that's being optimistic.

Even if all the numbers plummeted tomorrow and kept decreasing, I think it will take a while for a lot of people to get back out there.  I avoid even briefly getting within 20 feet of anyone when I'm out walking.  I can't imagine feeling comfortable sitting down and eating in a restaurant for a sustained amount of time.  I think some of us might have a bit of PTSD after this, although those who are protesting will apparently have no such problems.      

[preraph]

Oh, I agree.  You can tell who is being careful.  Like my pizza place, I went in there to pick one up and they had all kinds of things laid out, like newly sterilzed ink pens!  

 

So that first paragraph reminded me that by that same theory, I have slept with everyone Tina Turner has slept with.  😂

 

Seriously, I think picking up groceries or takeout carries the same risk as eating out as long as they do social distancing and are very good cleaning.  But I was already cleaning before we got locked down.  I took a wipe, used it to open the door, used it on the chair and table, silverware, then went and washed my hands.  

Edited April 21, 2020 by preraph

[gaius]

It's likely that De Blasio encouraging people to use the subway contributed greatly to the kind of overwhelming numbers you saw in New York. I doubt rural areas will see the same type of explosive outbreak even if they reopen. Unless they start hosting really big events on the regular. The lifestyle just doesn't offer the same level of transmission opportunities.

I can see the US facing a steady, lower grind of infections and deaths over the next 6-12 months, as long as we don't reopen schools and forgo large events like sports, concerts, convention type gatherings. Occasionally seeing different businesses get infected, shut down temporarily and then reopen later. 

Hopefully the kind of individual behavior changes we're seeing in the majority of people like wearing masks and giving people more space will slow it down enough that we'll still see more misery but no more New Yorks.