How is COVID-19 controlled until a vaccine is found?

[thefooloftheyear]

Just now, Ellener said:

who? Here in the US? We start our state's phased reopening at the end of the month.

There are governors on record saying that they didn't believe anything will be returning to any sense of normalcy until 2021...And the truth is you don't know what they will open or reopen "at the end of the month"....

They have been moving the goalposts since this began...

TFY

[thefooloftheyear]

1 minute ago, Ellener said:

The visitors wave through the windows and talk on phone or computer.

Oh...sounds great..How lovely...🙄....

most people that age cant operate computers and cell phones and probably couldn't see the screens anyway if they could..

But all the workers at these facilities come and go every day...who knows who they see, who they interact with,, etc??  But family can't come??  FOH...

TFY

[nittygritty]

13 minutes ago, Ellener said:

The visitors wave through the windows and talk on phone or computer.

Depends on where you live. Some of these elderly care facilities are not even allowing family members outside of the facility to see and wave at their loved ones thru the windows. 

[thefooloftheyear]

18 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

Depends on where you live. Some of these elderly care facilities are not even allowing family members outside of the facility to see and wave at their loved ones thru the windows. 

These facilities have staffs of hundreds of workers....In and out every single day...Not just the health care providers, but also the food service, HVAC maintenance people, etc...

If they aren't somehow sequestered in the facility, then what's the point of disallowing family members?

Even if they came up with a system that limited visits to one at a time, only once a week, and bring the resident to a room close to the front door so the visitors  didn't have to traipse through the whole building, it would have likely helped a great deal...Maybe some of these older folks would have lasted...I dunno...

Seems like a lot of this wasn't really thought out too well..

TFY

Edited April 20, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[basil67]

7 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

And the seasonal flu has a vaccine, yet still killed like double the amount that this one has in one year......with a vaccine...

 

I don't understand your math

CDC says that 34,200 died in the USA's 2018-19 six month flu season   -   Reported COVID deaths in the USA are 40,591 in just one month.

What am I missing?

 

 

 

[thefooloftheyear]

14 minutes ago, basil67 said:

I don't understand your math

CDC says that 34,200 died in the USA's 2018-19 six month flu season   -   Reported COVID deaths in the USA are 40,591 in just one month.

What am I missing?

I

I dunno...There is no math....Just Google..

"An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen "

And the other aspect is that "I believe" that the numbers for this virus are inflated more so than other "typical" flus...Add that to the opinion that many people have died not from this virus, but rather from the lockdown(specifically the elderly)...The CDC has instructed that all deaths *even suspect but not proven* to be counted in the number.....Did they do the same with the regular seasonal flu?  I cant answer that...

Its a serious virus and I don't want you to think that I am saying its not., but sorry.. the numbers are suspect when you take into account all that's going on right now...

TFY

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[basil67]

1 minute ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I dunno...There is no math....Just Google..

"An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

Here's my link to where I got my figures https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html     2018-19 was last winter.   Where did you find the 80K figure?

But even if we work with 80,000 who died of flu in six months, COVID is half of that after only one month

[gaius]

3 hours ago, Piddy said:

You know what we discovered playing golf in single carts?  It's about a half hour faster.  Now all they need to come up with is single carts.  Build one that just fits one golfer.  Solves the slow play problem. 😉  Three of us played in less that 3 hours the other day.  Now we're very fast golfers, but it does speed up play.  Everyone goes to their own ball etc..

Also,  golf is built for social distancing.  They have the cups raised also so you don't touch anything.  We have been leaving the flag in anyway since they changed the rules.  Playing golf is much safer that going to the grocery store actually.

People have to go to the grocery store. Golfing, not so much.

The whole point of the lock down is to limit unnecessary gatherings, thus limiting the potential spread of the virus, and the golf course is still a risk, even if it's a lower risk than most other sports. But everyone just does whatever they want over here.

And this folks, is why reopening is the smarter thing to do. There's no point in destroying the economy if people aren't going to use the shutdown time wisely and actually stop the spread cold turkey.

[gaius]

38 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

I dunno...There is no math....Just Google..

"An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen "

And the other aspect is that "I believe" that the numbers for this virus are inflated more so than other "typical" flus...Add that to the opinion that many people have died not from this virus, but rather from the lockdown(specifically the elderly)...The CDC has instructed that all deaths *even suspect but not proven* to be counted in the number.....Did they do the same with the regular seasonal flu?  I cant answer that...

Its a serious virus and I don't want you to think that I am saying its not., but sorry.. the numbers are suspect when you take into account all that's going on right now...

TFY

I think you made a post earlier suggesting that a lot of these old people were really dying from broken hearts from not having visitors rather than the virus. But the ugly truth is a lot of people in the nursing home never have visitors. One study estimated 60 percent of residents never have visitors period. Also a large amount of residents usually have some form of dementia so they don't always even remember when they've had company. So it's highly unlikely nursing homes are suddenly losing 10-33% of their residents in a short amount of time due to much except the virus.

And the whole Coronavirus vs Flu thing has been kind of settled for months now. Google has a lot of information about it. And *spoiler alert* it's not all that comparable.

[basil67]

23 hours ago, gaius said:

One smart thing to do would be to ban travel from the US for the foreseeable future because it's likely Americans will be a major infection risk for a while.

Here in Oz, we won't be letting anyone in (except perhaps from NZ) until there's a vaccination.

[NuevoYorko]

10 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

It's good to clarify that you aren't an expert here and neither am I...

But you do also have to recognize that for one, we really don't know how "deadly" this virus is because we don't have a handle on the denominator.(the amount of people exposed/infected and cured without recognition)….That number can be(and probably is) enormous....That would cause the actual death rate to be substantially less than it is now...Not to mention the fact that the numerator here has deliberately been inflated at the request of the CDC....

And the seasonal flu has a vaccine, yet still killed like double the amount that this one has in one year......with a vaccine...

 

A quick look at the CDC site on the seasonal flu tells me that this flu season (between  October 1, 2019 & April 4, 2020) , there have been 24,000 - 62,000 deaths from that virus.  It's an estimate for the season.  A lot of data has not been processed yet and I don't know when "flu season" officially ends.  

That is a lot of death over a 6 month span whichever estimate is more accurate;  however,  we've had 40,565 deaths from the coronavirus in this country and it's only been tracked since February 15 - when there were 12 cases recorded.  (The first death recorded was on March 1.)

Regardless of the denominator / death rate,  this is a tremendous loss of life over 2 months.  

I don't know about the numerator being inflated at the request of the CDC; this is the first I'm hearing of that.  

The past 2 days have shown a decrease in new cases and new deaths but that has happened before, to be followed by a spike.  It's yet to be seen whether we are actually on a decline.  It's likely to be very precarious and dependent upon how people decide to behave, and what the various powers that be are doing.  We''ll see.  

Edited to add:  RE another of your responses; why do you say that elderly people have been dying not from COVID-19 but from the lockdown?

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by NuevoYorko

[thefooloftheyear]

23 minutes ago, NuevoYorko said:

A quick look at the CDC site on the seasonal flu tells me that this flu season (between  October 1, 2019 & April 4, 2020) , there have been 24,000 - 62,000 deaths from that virus.  It's an estimate for the season.  A lot of data has not been processed yet and I don't know when "flu season" officially ends.  

That is a lot of death over a 6 month span whichever estimate is more accurate;  however,  we've had 40,565 deaths from the coronavirus in this country and it's only been tracked since February 15 - when there were 12 cases recorded.  (The first death recorded was on March 1.)

Regardless of the denominator / death rate,  this is a tremendous loss of life over 2 months.  

I don't know about the numerator being inflated at the request of the CDC; this is the first I'm hearing of that.  

The past 2 days have shown a decrease in new cases and new deaths but that has happened before, to be followed by a spike.  It's yet to be seen whether we are actually on a decline.  It's likely to be very precarious and dependent upon how people decide to behave, and what the various powers that be are doing.  We''ll see.  

Edited to add:  RE another of your responses; why do you say that elderly people have been dying not from COVID-19 but from the lockdown?

 

No argument....tremendous loss of life...

Here is the quote from the CDC

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death,” CDC guidelines issued March 24 read. “Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc.,” the guidance continued.

To answer the point to your addendum..

I believe(meaning it's my opinion) that despite what some may suggest(that no one gives a fck about the elderly living in nursing homes and care facilities), that it's entirely possible that a segment of those people just "give up" when circumstances are such that they feel they no longer want to continue to live...If you cut off their contact from the outside world and fill their minds with dread and fear(as what's happening with any media source you want to mention), then they may have felt that "the time was right" to exit the world....

Just one man's opinion...nothing more.

TFY

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[Highndry]

13 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Just wrong....

It's not wrong, you just don't like the truth.

[Ellener]

Things aren't that different here to be honest. I really feel for the people in places like New York.

3 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Seems like a lot of this wasn't really thought out too well..

I'm sure the people are doing the best they can with what notice they had.

The staff have temp checks as they go in. There haven't been many outbreaks in nursing homes here and they were the first places to go on lockdown.

One of the seniors called me a few days ago, she was fine. They have stamina and resilience better than other generations. She's 96 so she's seen a lot.

They don't whine like younger generations!

 

[thefooloftheyear]

2 hours ago, basil67 said:

Here's my link to where I got my figures https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html     2018-19 was last winter.   Where did you find the 80K figure?

But even if we work with 80,000 who died of flu in six months, COVID is half of that after only one month

The same way you did...maybe it was the winter before, I don't know...

I'm not comparing the two...I have no doubt that this strain is serious..

But the exposure and awareness leads me to believe that

1)..The actual death numbers(numerator) are somewhat inflated.

2) Because we have no accurate data on who has gotten and beaten it(denominator), then we really don't truly know the death rate..

One of my long-term clients contracted it and then so did his wife....She wound up In the hospital with a lot of issues but did beat it.....He(who has more medical issues then she does and is older)  had a few days of cold/flu symptoms and that was the extent of it, never even ran a fever...... So I don't know what conclusion you want to draw from that, but its telling that an 82 year old man with prevailing health problems wound up with little to nothing...its entirely possible that millions are out there the same and that maybe its not the imminent death sentence its being made out to be?  You decide.

That's about the extent of it...I am not out there protesting to remove the lockdowns and disobey the directives...It is what it is...But the fear mongering is a bit out of control..And I am far from the only one with this opinion..

TFY

[thefooloftheyear]

7 minutes ago, Highndry said:

It's not wrong, you just don't like the truth.

What's "the truth"

That we have lived through a total lockdown so everyone prepared for it? 

Did you have a room full of toilet paper and your own signature series ventilator in your nightstand?

TFY

[Highndry]

Just now, thefooloftheyear said:

What's "the truth"

That we have lived through a total lockdown so everyone prepared for it? 

Did you have a room full of toilet paper and your own signature series ventilator in your nightstand?

TFY

What are you even talking about?

[gaius]

1 minute ago, Highndry said:

What are you even talking about?

I have a neighbor down the street who was convinced when this all started that we wouldn't end up like Italy because we have better plumbing than they do. I kid you not.

That seems to be the level of thought a lot of people put into this. And it shows. =/

[thefooloftheyear]

17 minutes ago, Highndry said:

What are you even talking about?

here, allow me to refresh your memory.. You said..

"The problem we have today is that the system is so loaded with debt, whether corporate, government or household, that a small interruption guarantees complete financial devastation for many. Nobody saved for a rainy day in spite of the fact that we had "the greatest economy in history." (not really)"

Now....if you want to say a country wide lockdown, closure of schools, all commerce basically completely grinding to a halt literally overnight, resulting in immediate unemployment of what some believe to be at least 30%, not to mention all the other related negative aspects to be a "small interruption"

That's it....we are where we are right now because people didn't "save for a rainy day"...??

sheesh..c'mon man...

TFY

Edited April 20, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

[Highndry]

8 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

here, allow me to refresh your memory.. You said..

"The problem we have today is that the system is so loaded with debt, whether corporate, government or household, that a small interruption guarantees complete financial devastation for many. Nobody saved for a rainy day in spite of the fact that we had "the greatest economy in history." (not really)"

Now....if you want to say a country wide lockdown, closure of schools, all commerce basically completely grinding to a halt literally overnight, resulting in immediate unemployment of what some believe to be at least 30%, not to mention all the other related negative aspects to be a "small interruption"

That's it....we are where we are right now because people didn't "save for a rainy day"...

sheesh..

TFY

And yet somehow you arrived at:

 

23 minutes ago, Highndry said:

Did you have a room full of toilet paper and your own signature series ventilator in your nightstand?

You seem to be very emotional about this. What I said is the truth, that debt is what is destroying everything right now. If the massive debt burden didn't exist, we could easily as a country weather this financial storm. Instead, the whole system was collapsing within weeks. Just today we heard 24 hour fitness is looking at bankruptcy. Over 400 stores and $1.4 billion in debt.

I'm doing just fine even with my total loss of income. In fact, I could carry on years like this if need be. It's not great, but I saved for a rainy day. But most of the people I know didn't. They were busy borrowing money for huge houses they could never afford, for fancy cars and for clothing and vacations. They jacked up the credit cards. They were living large. Then this came along and the whole thing fell apart with a couple missed paychecks. But hey, those Instagram and Fakebook pictures of their rich lifestyle sure were worth it.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Highndry

[thefooloftheyear]

2 minutes ago, Highndry said:

And yet somehow you arrived at:

 

You seem to be very emotional about this. What I said is the truth, that debt is what is destroying everything right now. If the massive debt burden didn't exist, we could easily as a country weather this financial storm. Instead, the whole system was collapsing within weeks. Just today we heard 24 hour fitness is looking at bankruptcy. Over 400 stores and $1.4 billion in debt.

I'm doing just fine even with my total loss of income. In fact, I could carry on years like this if need be. It's not great, but I saved for a rainy day. But most of the people I know didn't. They were busy borrowing money for huge houses they could never afford, for fancy cars and for clothing and vacations. They jacked up the credit cards. They were living large. Then this came along and the whole thing fell apart with a couple missed paychecks. But hey, those Instagram and Fakebook pictures of their rich lifestyle sure were worth it.

it was a tongue in cheek metaphor ...

I can go for years as well...

But I am not going to sit here and say that something like this can be handled by "saving for a rainy day", because its incredibly naïve, insensitive, and illogical, under these conditions.. Viable businesses that were completely solvent will go under....People may not be able to go back to work in their field/jobs due to a unprecedented change in how their career operates both during and after this.... for something that they had literally no control over...

There are times when its proper to criticize irresponsible behavior....Now is not that time...There are too many mitigating factors at play.. 

TFY

[Highndry]

5 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

it was a tongue in cheek metaphor ...

I can go for years as well...

But I am not going to sit here and say that something like this can be handled by "saving for a rainy day", because its incredibly naïve, insensitive, and illogical, under these conditions.. Viable businesses that were completely solvent will go under....People may not be able to go back to work in their field/jobs due to a unprecedented change in how their career operates both during and after this.... for something that they had literally no control over...

There are times when its proper to criticize irresponsible behavior....Now is not that time...There are too many mitigating factors at play.. 

TFY

Now you're putting words in my mouth. I never said this whole situation could be handled by saving for a rainy day. I simply pointed out the debt problem we have that is breaking the back of the entire economy. The whole point of saving for a rainy day is that you never know when it will come, but when it does you are prepared. It would have mitigated the pain.

We were completely unprepared as a country - the government, businesses, and individuals. To now say that it's not the time to criticize such irresponsible behavior is irresponsible in and of itself. This is the PERFECT TIME to address it, especially given how much time people have on their hands for introspection.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Highndry

[Ellener]

America will be fine, people need to stay calm and cope with the situation now it's happened. 

In future we need better more balanced government and clearly a better plan for the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act which replaced previous legislation last year despite criticism and testimony in previous hearings that the US was unprepared for a national disaster. I'm going to go and read up on that now.

[thefooloftheyear]

6 hours ago, Highndry said:

Now you're putting words in my mouth. I never said this whole situation could be handled by saving for a rainy day. I simply pointed out the debt problem we have that is breaking the back of the entire economy. The whole point of saving for a rainy day is that you never know when it will come, but when it does you are prepared. It would have mitigated the pain.

We were completely unprepared as a country - the government, businesses, and individuals. To now say that it's not the time to criticize such irresponsible behavior is irresponsible in and of itself. This is the PERFECT TIME to address it, especially given how much time people have on their

NO amount of preparedness would have been sufficient for something the nature of this magnitude....its never happened so its not something that can be "saved" for...

Even having a nest egg, which a lot of people have/had in IRA's and other retirement savings, got cratered overnight....Will it come back?  Hopefully, but we really don't know...Some are predicting an epic recession/depression.. Maybe  a complete housing collapse..Point is many people/businesses were as prepared as they logically could have been and still lost...

So now telling people that they should save and be prepared when there is so much uncertainty?....There are people I know that say this because they have nothing and so have nothing to lose....And politicians are good at this as well....while their government checks keep clearing and their pensions continue to be funded...

 

TFY

Edited April 20, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
removed poke

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, thefooloftheyear said:

NO amount of preparedness would have been sufficient for something the nature of this magnitude

Yes and no. But you seem to be panicking more than the people who are personally affected? 

What's happened has happened, and the people who survive will have to help the people who are bereaved and the financially destitute.

You expressed concern about nursing homes, when this is over maybe you could volunteer or work in one? 

Positive solutions and encouragement are what rebuilds lives and businesses and economies.