What's Our End Game Strategy for COVID-19?

[Wave Rider]

As I see it, there are only three possible outcomes for this pandemic:

1) We develop an effective vaccine and administer it to 7.8 billion people, and life goes back to normal

2) The disease is contained or mysteriously dies out on its own, as the 1918 Spanish flu did 

3) No vaccine is ever developed, and eventually we all get disease and develop herd immunity 

At this point 2) seems unlikely, and most of the world seems to be holding its breath hoping that 1) will happen very soon.  But we do not have vaccines for any of the other 4 coronaviruses (which cause colds), and we also don't have vaccines for a number of other viruses, so 3) is quite possible.  If months drag into years and we find ourselves 2 years down with no vaccine and a completely destroyed economy with 30-50% unemployment and seriously high rates of poverty, will people accept the reality of 3), or will we keep holding out hope for 1) ?  At what point should we give up on 1) and make the sacrifices to live with the reality of 3) ?  

Many people advocate for testing, but testing still does not solve the problem.  It may reduce the total number of deaths in the case that 1) happens, but if 3) is true, then testing will "flatten the curve" and cause less strain on the healthcare system, but will not change the reality that everyone will eventually get the virus.  Lockdown quarantines serve the same function - they may slow down the spread of the virus to reduce strain on the health care system, but will not change the reality that everyone will eventually get the virus.    

I know people are scared.  I know that people want to save their loves ones and they don't want to see anyone die or get sick.  But as far as I can tell, it's either 1) or 3).  So how long do you think people will be willing to live in quarantine in hopes of 1) ?  6 months?  A year?  5 years?  If 3) is real, when will people abandon hope for 1) and accept 3) ?

If you're hoping for antiviral drugs that will lessen the symptoms, remember that we still don't have a cure for the common cold, a disease which is often caused by the other 4 coronaviruses.  If you know of another end game for this pandemic, please let me know, because I don't see one.   

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Wave Rider

[Inflikted]

I wish I knew, or had an idea, myself. Unfortunately, I'm not very "tuned in" or informed on all the goings-ons to really be able to give any kind of educated answer.

I can't speak for what other countries will do, but it seems as though, here in America, the very vocal and boisterous group that wants everything reopened and for life to go on as normal and for the virus to just sweep through and run its course will probably end up pushing to get their way. Granted, thankfully, there is still a decent amount of people who will prefer to be safe and cautious and won't be rushing out to "live life as normal" with the virus still prevalent. But it may not matter a whole lot, because there's enough people who just want to pretend everything is fine and throw caution to the wind, that even people who are trying to be cautious will probably still be at great risk for getting infected.

I don't know when, or if, a vaccine will come around. That would obviously be the "best case scenario", that would get the world back to normal. I know there's theoretical discussions that a vaccine may not be possible, but there have seemingly been advancements that show promise. And from what I've seen others say, we tend to lack vaccines for other things not because it would be "impossible" to make, but because they're not so deadly and/ or contagious enough to get enough funding to get developed. Given the severity of COVID-19, I'd like to think there will be strong funding to find something.

At the very least, I think a more "short term" upside would be to find some kind of medication or treatment that greatly reduces the mortality rate, lessens the severity of the symptoms, and/ or reduces the risk of permanent organ damage. If we can't immunize people against it, perhaps we can at least find something that severely dampens how bad it is if you do catch it. That would probably also help to get life moving back to normal, I'd think.

[schlumpy]

Add to the list:

4) Covid mutates to a less virulent form.

[Wave Rider]

12 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

Add to the list:

4) Covid mutates to a less virulent form.

So I think that's a variation on 2) above.  So my question is, how long do you think people will be willing to wait in lockdown to see if that's going to happen?  Months?  Years? 

[schlumpy]

No, I think from what I see around me and what I read in the news that the masses are breaking out as we speak. Yesterday thousands were demonstrating in Germany against restrictions. I think the state governments will have to stand down. 

I'll maintain my own protected status till I get clear signal that it's safe to come out. If others think having a beer with the guys is worth the risk then that's OK with me. 

[Foxhall]

I am guessing there may be an effective vaccine by October to December this year, how 7.8 billion will be manufactured I do not know, many countries may be waiting well into 2021 to get access to the successful vaccine,

otherwise containment on a reasonable scale appears to be the best strategy, enforcing social distancing, banning of all public gatherings more than 100 people,more wearing of masks in public and so on,rigorous hand washing, an effective contact tracing system perhaps,  strict quarantines for any overseas visitors. 

my concern with my own country where a very strict lockdown has been imposed, is that the cure will end up worse than the virus itself,

I also suspect that there is in reality many more asymptomatic cases than people realise,

many people have been blighted since childhood with respiratory illnesses and flus and there has to be some degree of immunity built up through this,

one major problem is people are not doing enough to boost their immune systems in simple ways such as taking vitamin d supplements, taking herbal remedies like elderberry and so on ,out running or exercising enough to boost their lung capacities,

In summary I think a vaccine will be found in 2020, but it may be only a limited number that can access it, many will be waiting until probably a year from now,

therefore that leaves containment with restrictions, but hopefully from a selfish point of view more freedom of movement than is allowed at present. 

 

 

 

 

[Inflikted]

4 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

So I think that's a variation on 2) above.  So my question is, how long do you think people will be willing to wait in lockdown to see if that's going to happen?  Months?  Years? 

Honestly, I think that question is semi-irrelevant, because the people who want to end the lockdowns and reopen everything and go about as normal are the ones making the most noise, and typically, the ones who make the most noise are the ones who get their way.

Previously, my prediction was that we'd have waves of "lockdown" periods for the next couple of years. But seeing how the anti-lockdown people are acting about this one, I'm starting to think that's not going to be the case. Again, it seems like there ARE plenty of people who would rather be safe and cautious, but the people on the opposite side are making so much noise that they're inevitably going to get their way.

[Wave Rider]

58 minutes ago, Inflikted said:

I can't speak for what other countries will do, but it seems as though, here in America, the very vocal and boisterous group that wants everything reopened and for life to go on as normal and for the virus to just sweep through and run its course will probably end up pushing to get their way. Granted, thankfully, there is still a decent amount of people who will prefer to be safe and cautious and won't be rushing out to "live life as normal" with the virus still prevalent. But it may not matter a whole lot, because there's enough people who just want to pretend everything is fine and throw caution to the wind, that even people who are trying to be cautious will probably still be at great risk for getting infected.

I know that this is the debate that's going on, and my point here is that this debate misses the bigger picture. Lockdown vs. reopen are still short-term strategies.  Right now lockdown is the prevailing strategy, but I'm asking about the long-term here.  I'm asking how long people will be willing to wait in lockdown hoping for 1) , and if 3) is in fact our real situation, when people will be willing to abandon hope for 1) .  Like 6 months, a year, or 5 years?

I know that criticism towards those who want to reopen is harsh.  I like to keep in mind that not everyone has a job that allows them to work from home, and for those who can't work from home, they need a way to eat and pay their bills.  So if those people have a 1% chance of dying from the virus and a 100% chance of being unable to pay a massive pile of bills, eventually lockdown is going to make less and less sense, especially if no vaccine is in sight.  

So how long with such people be willing to wait?  Months, years?

Edited May 17, 2020 by Wave Rider

[Happy Lemming]

1 hour ago, Wave Rider said:

3) No vaccine is ever developed, and eventually we all get disease and develop herd immunity

One of my girlfriend's doctors actually said something very similar to this (during a ZOOM doctor's appointment).  This particular doctor thinks everyone will eventually get it.

At this point, we are still "sheltering in place".  Although our state has lifted the "Stay at Home" order, we wanted to wait and see if there is a resurgence of cases or if the downward trend continues. 

I consider myself an intelligent adult and I prefer to stay in a "holding pattern" for a couple more weeks before venturing out. 

[Wave Rider]

8 minutes ago, Foxhall said:

otherwise containment on a reasonable scale appears to be the best strategy, enforcing social distancing, banning of all public gatherings more than 100 people,more wearing of masks in public and so on,rigorous hand washing, an effective contact tracing system perhaps,  strict quarantines for any overseas visitors. 

Thanks for the response, but again, these are short-term strategies.  I'm asking about long-term.  If no vaccine is found, how long will people wait?  And do you think that we as a world will be willing to make the sacrifices necessary to reopen (meaning that some people will die) if we have little hope of an imminent vaccine?  

[basil67]

Given that we don't have crystal balls, I think that we can only tackle this as we have been - day by day - week by week.  Learn as we go.   React to the changes in community feeling as they happen.

As an Aussie, one thing I do not support is opening our international borders to anywhere other than NZ.  I would accept immigration or repatriation but only if they do a 2 week quarantine with guards in a hotel upon arrival.

Edited May 17, 2020 by basil67

[Wave Rider]

1 minute ago, Happy Lemming said:

Although our state has lifted the "Stay at Home" order, we wanted to wait and see if there is a resurgence of cases or if the downward trend continues. 

But why would cases go downward?  If only a small percentage of people have contracted it, then lifting lockdown will causes another outbreak.  That's my point.  Lifting the lockdown is basically an acknowledgement of 3).  A lot of institutions say they will reopen when cases are on a downward trend, but that seems like magical thinking to me. Why would cases go down if most people have never been exposed?  They won't.  I'm saying that keeping lockdown in place shows belief in 1) , while lifting the lockdown acknowledges 3) .  

[Foxhall]

Ill be stunned if a vaccine does not emerge, the only thing is will it be the UK Oxford researchers who seem to be leading the way at present or will a US company beat them to it,

if you were to imagine a vaccine not emerging  the only option would be to cocoon over 70s and people with underlying medical conditions as best one can and that the rest of society goes back to a "reasonable level" of normal and tackles the virus heads on,

how long would countries wait, that will probably vary,

In the event of no vaccine, Id imagine restrictions could go on quite a long time, a few years, it will all depend on the resources of the health care systems in each state/country, 

they would keep restrictions going but loosen things up to the extent that the health care systems can cope,

then after five years or slightly longer  enough immunity would be built up to live with the disease.

 

[Happy Lemming]

2 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

But why would cases go downward?

Perhaps with the use of masks and changes in behavior (6 ft distancing), we might see a downward trend, but again I don't know... just hopeful.

I really don't have an answer to your question, and this is the main reason why my girlfriend and I are continuing to "shelter in place".  If there is a huge rise in cases, then staying in a holding pattern (at home) will have been a wise decision.

My girlfriend in I are in the AARP crowd and she has some underlying health issues, so we are airing on the side of caution.  Moreover, we are both retired, so we don't have to go to work to make ends meet. 

We may not be the best sample of people for your inquiry.

[Inflikted]

15 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

I know that criticism towards those who want to reopen is harsh.  I like to keep in mind that not everyone has a job that allows them to work from home, and for those who can't work from home, they need a way to eat and pay their bills.  So if those people have a 1% chance of dying from the virus and a 100% chance of being unable to pay a massive pile of bills, eventually lockdown is going to make less and less sense, especially if no vaccine is in sight. 

Yeah, I get that. And it's not that I'm not sympathetic those issues. My job, for instance, isn't one I can do from home, and I was off for two months because of the pandemic.

I'm not "upset" about people wanting to keep the economy going. Rather, I'm frustrated because a lot of people pushing for this stuff are also people who seemingly don't want to do things safely, and have little to no regard for anyone else's healthy or safety. They just end up having a very "Me, me, me!" attitude. "Wearing a mask is against my rights! Not being able to go out and do what I want is against my rights!". Surely, there are people who want to keep the economy going that are sensible, but it seems like the loudest ones are also the ones who don't care who gets sick or who dies as long because the mild inconvenience of having to wear a mask or do anything sensible to protect others is just too much of a hassle for them.

25 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

So how long with such people be willing to wait?  Months, years?

It doesn't matter, because people are already not waiting. Cautious and sensible people will remain as such for as long as it takes, but again, the people making the most noise (and pushing for everything to be "normal") are going to get their way, so future lockdowns and looking less and less likely. There will be restrictions, sure. But over time, people will even lax on those because most people stop "following the rules to a t" at some point. And shoot, it wouldn't surprise me if the same noisy people eventually start fighting against even basic restrictions.

[Art_Critic]

I don't see the end game scenario in your post, to me we just learn to live with it and the effects of it.. we also protect the weak and let the strong go out and run things.

I don't think we will ever reach herd immunity.

No sure how my 84 year old Mom does it,  she has been in quarantine since March 12th...but that is what we need to do, protect the weak..

I live in the first state to open up and our Governor was criticized by Trump openly but if you follow the numbers the Governor was right.. we have to have an economy and can't just live in a bubble, they are predicting an increase bump in late June or July, right in time for schools to open up so we will most likely be doing digital home schooling again this next school year.. fun fun...

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Art_Critic

[elaine567]

24 minutes ago, Inflikted said:

I'm not "upset" about people wanting to keep the economy going. Rather, I'm frustrated because a lot of people pushing for this stuff are also people who seemingly don't want to do things safely, and have little to no regard for anyone else's healthy or safety. They just end up having a very "Me, me, me!" attitude. "Wearing a mask is against my rights! Not being able to go out and do what I want is against my rights!". Surely, there are people who want to keep the economy going that are sensible, but it seems like the loudest ones are also the ones who don't care who gets sick or who dies as long because the mild inconvenience of having to wear a mask or do anything sensible to protect others is just too much of a hassle for them.

If we get a second wave like they did in the 1918 pandemic that killed off the healthy 20-35yos as well as the very young and the sick and the old then I  guess their "rights" may not seem quite so important. Fear will keep them following the rules. Of course even then there will still be the idiots who don't give a damn for one reason or another.

[Inflikted]

18 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

If we get a second wave like they did in the 1918 pandemic that killed off the healthy 20-35yos as well as the very young and the sick and the old then I  guess their "rights" may not seem quite so important. Fear will keep them following the rules. Of course even then there will still be the idiots who don't give a damn for one reason or another.

Yeah. I just don't want to be one of the "young ones" that dies or ends up with permanent damage because of someone else's lack of regard.

[amaysngrace]

33 minutes ago, Inflikted said:

Yeah. I just don't want to be one of the "young ones" that dies or ends up with permanent damage because of someone else's lack of regard.

Then stay home.  That’s an option.

[Wave Rider]

For me, there seems to be a clear reality that few people are willing to acknowledge: unless we develop a vaccine, everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus.  Everyone.  This will be true regardless of whether or not people wear masks, wash their hands, keep businesses closed, work from home, and vigilantly adhere to the best safety practices.  In the absence of a vaccine, there will be no quarantine, no lockdown, no sanitation procedures, no travel ban, no national border closure, no economic closures, no mask, and no social distancing that will stop the virus from completely working its way through the population.  "Being safe" won't help you anymore that it has saved you from getting colds in the past.  This is the point that I'm trying to make, and the one that most people seem loathe to acknowledge.    

[Inflikted]

11 minutes ago, amaysngrace said:

Then stay home.  That’s an option.

I do. But I still have to go to work, with coworkers that refuse to follow safety precautions.

[amaysngrace]

@Wave Rider

People don’t acknowledge it because the President agrees with you.

If Hilary was President and it was her thinking as well it’d go over like white on rice.

Liberals suck.

ETA actually if it was Hilary in there Republicans would be the ones not to acknowledge it.

Both sides suck.

Edited May 18, 2020 by amaysngrace

[BC1980]

32 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

For me, there seems to be a clear reality that few people are willing to acknowledge: unless we develop a vaccine, everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus.  Everyone.  This will be true regardless of whether or not people wear masks, wash their hands, keep businesses closed, work from home, and vigilantly adhere to the best safety practices.  In the absence of a vaccine, there will be no quarantine, no lockdown, no sanitation procedures, no travel ban, no national border closure, no economic closures, no mask, and no social distancing that will stop the virus from completely working its way through the population.  "Being safe" won't help you anymore that it has saved you from getting colds in the past.  This is the point that I'm trying to make, and the one that most people seem loathe to acknowledge.    

This is where I think it's all going. I don't see a vaccine anytime soon. Even if we get one, who knows how effective it will be. The flu vaccine is only like 50% effective. I think this virus will become endemic to the population like the flu. I'm more hopeful for some type of treatment to mitigate the effects of the virus. 
 

I've been wondering what the end game is for my job and hospitals in general as well. No one seems to know. Do we have COVID units indefinitely? How will we find people to work in them? It's already wearing on everyone emotionally, and we don't have enough staff. 

[MsJayne]

Option 5)  We relax because we think it's under control, but it comes back in a mutated form which can't be stopped and takes out half the human race. We do not learn anything from this, we keep polluting the planet and breeding like cockroaches. Afterwards we look back with fondness on the BTV, (before the virus), times, back when the worst thing that was going on was Donald Trump's twitter page. 

[amaysngrace]

And eating meat @MsJayne.

And eating meat.