What's Our End Game Strategy for COVID-19?

[Fletch Lives]

The new world after corona

I'll tell you what's going to happen.    

All the stuff we are doing - shutdowns, social distancing, masks, testing, etc., merely flattens the curve so our hospitals do not get overwhelmed. We will probably get a vaccine, and that will be the biggest help. But nothing stops the corona19. It's here, and times are changing, like it or not. In the future, the virus could mutate. Even if it mutates into a less potent form, there could be additional viruses (likely). 

Governments trying to reopen things to the way they were is a bad idea. But some things they are doing, like limiting large gatherings/events, and half-capacity restaurants, are a good idea. (not good for the restaurants, many will eventually have to restructure their businesses to survive).

There will be a recession, many industries will change and there will be a shift in jobs, less restaurants, less travel, more cocooning and working from home. The hospitality and airlines industry will be radically changed. Many restaurants will shift to more of a takeout and delivery model. 

We will shift somewhat from a commuting society to more of a work at home model. Many desk jobs can be done from home.

There will be lots of abandoned restaurants and hotels for a few years. No problem, the building/land will be rezoned for other uses. Forget going to stadiums for sporting events, or arenas, or concerts and shows. That would be suicide for our society. They will probably need to shift to televised events only. Broadway is dead. The boob-tube is king.

With this shift in consumerism and jobs, many people may need to look for new careers. This and some industry restructuring takes time, which is why we will have a recession for two to five years. 

Car insurance rates will hit new lows, and car sales and production will plummet. Car rentals will drop.

The airline industry will change drastically. 

There will be good things also: Air pollution will go down (some of this stuff is already happening). There will be tremendous new breakthroughs in the health industry such as the world has never seen. Home delivery will go through the roof. Terrorism will go down - the terrorists have other problems now, they are too busy doing other things!

The stimulus packages, business loans for businesses that have lost demand, and bailouts will be a huge waste of money and will only prolong the agony and the recession. Throwing money at things to keep things the same will not help when change is needed. People and companies need to restructure and change for the new social distancing and cocooning world. All this stuff is a big waste of money and will only hurt us, not help us. It's a band-aid on a seeping wound and won't stop the bleeding.

The economy will bounce back but it will take two to five years.

But wearing masks and social distancing and not as many large gatherings and half-capacity restaurants will continue. Bars will be rare. The days of Cheers are gone forever.

The big problem is change. Humans don't like change by outside forces, and are slow to change, it's psychology. But nature is forcing this upon us.

My advice? If you are affected by this pandemic, don't wait around for things to get better. Adapt, change, or die. Be open to career change, or starting your own  business.

This is just the beginning. The world has forever changed. This may go down as one of the biggest world-changing events in history, and usher in a new era.

I know people hate change, I do as well, and people will be slow to change, which will dictate the length of the recession. But it will be okay. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Fletch Lives

[elaine567]

19 minutes ago, Fletch Lives said:

Adapt, change, or die.

I agree, no point in clinging on to old business models or waiting for the old world to return. 
Too many it seems to me do not really get it.
The flexible and the agile will survive, the rest will go under.

[schlumpy]

Fletch, I do agree with your business forecast. I'll have to wait and see about your forecast on human nature. I do agree some things will change but human beings do not change behavior unless they face consequences. Consequences to other anonymous fellow human beings doesn't qualify. We always like to think it happens to the other guy.

[Philosopher]

1 hour ago, Fletch Lives said:

The new world after corona

I'll tell you what's going to happen.    

All the stuff we are doing - shutdowns, social distancing, masks, testing, etc., merely flattens the curve so our hospitals do not get overwhelmed. We will probably get a vaccine, and that will be the biggest help. But nothing stops the corona19. It's here, and times are changing, like it or not. In the future, the virus could mutate. Even if it mutates into a less potent form, there could be additional viruses (likely). 

Governments trying to reopen things to the way they were is a bad idea. But some things they are doing, like limiting large gatherings/events, and half-capacity restaurants, are a good idea. (not good for the restaurants, many will eventually have to restructure their businesses to survive).

There will be a recession, many industries will change and there will be a shift in jobs, less restaurants, less travel, more cocooning and working from home. The hospitality and airlines industry will be radically changed. Many restaurants will shift to more of a takeout and delivery model. 

We will shift somewhat from a commuting society to more of a work at home model. Many desk jobs can be done from home.

There will be lots of abandoned restaurants and hotels for a few years. No problem, the building/land will be rezoned for other uses. Forget going to stadiums for sporting events, or arenas, or concerts and shows. That would be suicide for our society. They will probably need to shift to televised events only. Broadway is dead. The boob-tube is king.

With this shift in consumerism and jobs, many people may need to look for new careers. This and some industry restructuring takes time, which is why we will have a recession for two to five years. 

Car insurance rates will hit new lows, and car sales and production will plummet. Car rentals will drop.

The airline industry will change drastically. 

There will be good things also: Air pollution will go down (some of this stuff is already happening). There will be tremendous new breakthroughs in the health industry such as the world has never seen. Home delivery will go through the roof. Terrorism will go down - the terrorists have other problems now, they are too busy doing other things!

The stimulus packages, business loans for businesses that have lost demand, and bailouts will be a huge waste of money and will only prolong the agony and the recession. Throwing money at things to keep things the same will not help when change is needed. People and companies need to restructure and change for the new social distancing and cocooning world. All this stuff is a big waste of money and will only hurt us, not help us. It's a band-aid on a seeping wound and won't stop the bleeding.

The economy will bounce back but it will take two to five years.

But wearing masks and social distancing and not as many large gatherings and half-capacity restaurants will continue. Bars will be rare. The days of Cheers are gone forever.

The big problem is change. Humans don't like change by outside forces, and are slow to change, it's psychology. But nature is forcing this upon us.

My advice? If you are affected by this pandemic, don't wait around for things to get better. Adapt, change, or die. Be open to career change, or starting your own  business.

This is just the beginning. The world has forever changed. This may go down as one of the biggest world-changing events in history, and usher in a new era.

I know people hate change, I do as well, and people will be slow to change, which will dictate the length of the recession. But it will be okay. 

I am sure there will be some long term changes but I do not think they will be anywhere near to the degree as you mentioned. In my lifetime 9/11 and the Global Financial crash were meant to change things massively, but in the end they changed things very little. I suspect there will be some changes, such as greater working from home and less corporate travel but I think people in five years will continue to go to pubs, restaurants, gather in large numbers, etc. 

The reason I think the changes will be limited are firstly as you mentioned most people would be more comfortable if things went back the way they were as most people do not like change. I saw on the BBC that in Asia, things are already retuning to normality. Secondly, I think a vaccine will be approved by the end of the year and widespread vaccination will have commenced in the first half of next year. This will allow normality to return fairly quickly. In this crisis, the incentive to develop a vaccine is immense as it is the only reliable way to protect people from this and allow the economy to function normally again. Governments will therefore throw everything they can at it. Given there are over 100 vaccines in development, some already in human trials, I reckon it is likely one of them will be successful by the end of the year. 

[Fletch Lives]

Quote

I saw on the BBC that in Asia, things are already retuning to normality. 

  - you mean like people wearing face masks in public? 

17 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

I am sure there will be some long term changes but I do not think they will be anywhere near to the degree as you mentioned.

I hope you are right and I'm wrong. 

 

People go through three stages of change. First, they are violently opposed to it.

I have seen and read stories of people walking up to others and purposely coughing or sneezing in their face...some of those to people wearing face masks in America before it was more acceptable, like in January and February. Also there are protests. Against what, civil liberties? Wake up, it's a health crisis caused by nature.

Then people reluctantly begin to change. Finally, people embrace the change as if things had always been that way.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Fletch Lives

[chillii]

l think there'll be a vax and they won't have to zap the whole planet only cure the ones that get it. But in the meantime it's pretty amazing of just how many businesses , even restaurants and bars, factories of all sorts , even shops , can modify their space to make a helluva difference and keep ticking over. l know there is much much more to it than just space for many, had a business 30yrs.  But a very large proportion would be workable l've seen it everywhere as we open up again here.

But yeah , there are so many things involved , right now , God only knows.

Edited May 18, 2020 by chillii

[BC1980]

The education model will change. We were seeing a lot of changes before corona, but this will hasten the change. Some small, liberal arts colleges will fold. Distance learning will expand. 

[snowboy91]

22 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

 I suspect there will be some changes, such as greater working from home and less corporate travel but I think people in five years will continue to go to pubs, restaurants, gather in large numbers, etc. 

I do agree with this bit. As much as we are trying to halt the spread of the virus, human beings don't deal particularly well with being confined to four walls for the entirety of their lifetimes, or with being completely isolated from other humans. Sure, some like to hide away, but one could argue that belonging to some community and interacting with others is part of being human - and that's what it's been like since we lived in tribes.

Here the transmission rate has become very low, though not zero. Our lockdown is slowly starting to lift, albeit very cautiously, and an enormous number of tests have been carried out. What I hope the end game here is is that when you know exactly where transmission is occurring (ie. get to a point where contact tracing is possible, say at the city or community level), then you can say that aside from specific clusters, no transmission is occurring.  So in terms of the end game, locking down until there are no more new cases is a real problem for the mental wellbeing of most people. But locking down until you have testing and treatment capability (at this stage hospital beds, but potentially drug treatments too) and having transmission rates low will get you returning to something closer to what was once normal. And the virus may continue to exist at a low level for a while, but such a low level can be managed through contact tracing and isolation. But that gets the world moving again, at least enough for either a vaccine or specific treatment to be developed. 

[thefooloftheyear]

While all of you are talking about how things are going to change, and how kids wont go to schools anymore,  cars and trucks wont run, etc, businesses will die off etc......that's great....but then how are you going to convince the population to keep paying taxes?   And if they revolt on this(because let's face it, that's what they tell all of us that they need the taxes for) how are you going to run anything or pay all the people that don't have income and all the other related government programs that need to be funded./?

Most people have had enough of the socialist/totalitarian way this has been handled...In some areas anyway...

If you want to know what the best changes can be had from this?

Maybe it will make people far more health conscious...The large numbers of deaths clearly affecting people with controllable existing conditions like obesity, lack of exercise, tobacco/drug use, etc.....If I was one of those people I wouldn't be posting all the cookies and cakes I am consuming during lockdown, and making jokes about how fat I am getting, I would be doing something about this.....Right now....

And maybe the other change will be that people start to give a shyt about their elder family members...

TFY

[Happy Lemming]

2 hours ago, Philosopher said:

 I saw on the BBC that in Asia, things are already retuning to normality.

Today, my morning news said there was a spike in new Covid-19 cases in China (Asia)...

*** Note *** Unfortunately, the news report did not define "spike" with actual numbers.

[serial muse]

17 hours ago, Wave Rider said:

As I see it, there are only three possible outcomes for this pandemic:

1) We develop an effective vaccine and administer it to 7.8 billion people, and life goes back to normal

2) The disease is contained or mysteriously dies out on its own, as the 1918 Spanish flu did 

3) No vaccine is ever developed, and eventually we all get disease and develop herd immunity 

At this point 2) seems unlikely, and most of the world seems to be holding its breath hoping that 1) will happen very soon.  But we do not have vaccines for any of the other 4 coronaviruses (which cause colds), and we also don't have vaccines for a number of other viruses, so 3) is quite possible.  If months drag into years and we find ourselves 2 years down with no vaccine and a completely destroyed economy with 30-50% unemployment and seriously high rates of poverty, will people accept the reality of 3), or will we keep holding out hope for 1) ?  At what point should we give up on 1) and make the sacrifices to live with the reality of 3) ?  

Many people advocate for testing, but testing still does not solve the problem.  It may reduce the total number of deaths in the case that 1) happens, but if 3) is true, then testing will "flatten the curve" and cause less strain on the healthcare system, but will not change the reality that everyone will eventually get the virus.  Lockdown quarantines serve the same function - they may slow down the spread of the virus to reduce strain on the health care system, but will not change the reality that everyone will eventually get the virus.    

I know people are scared.  I know that people want to save their loves ones and they don't want to see anyone die or get sick.  But as far as I can tell, it's either 1) or 3).  So how long do you think people will be willing to live in quarantine in hopes of 1) ?  6 months?  A year?  5 years?  If 3) is real, when will people abandon hope for 1) and accept 3) ?

If you're hoping for antiviral drugs that will lessen the symptoms, remember that we still don't have a cure for the common cold, a disease which is often caused by the other 4 coronaviruses.  If you know of another end game for this pandemic, please let me know, because I don't see one.   

 

I want to just clarify a couple of things here - first, the trope of "why haven't we cured the common cold" is not a reasonable or useful template for thinking about COVID-19 or what we're dealing with here. This is one virus. The "common cold" is actually not one thing, which is why we haven't "cured" it. What we call colds are caused by at least 160 different strains of viruses, most of which are not coronaviruses but rhinoviruses. They attack the body in different ways and at different locations. We've known about this for decades but as these colds are not, generally, deadly or even particularly serious, there is neither funding nor political will nor much scientific interest in figuring out how to inoculate against all 160 of them. So of course there isn't one "cure". 

Now on to COVID-19. Testing does not "solve" the problem, but then, it isn't meant to. It is meant to reduce risk, and yes, to reduce the strain on the health care workers. I think you're also overlooking the very real possibility that getting this coronavirus does not convey immunity, so herd immunity may not be a thing.

Risk is the name of the game here. That's what you're getting at in your post, but you're glossing over stuff that would need to be an integral part of any risk-benefit analysis! I think doing a risk-benefit analysis is a reasonable approach; it's entirely possible there won't be a vaccine before the end of 2020, and again, it's possible that there won't be an effective vaccine. It's possible that a vaccine will only convey very temporary immunity, a la the flu. We don't know these things yet, and we probably can't wait to open everything up until we do. But testing would help us manage opening up in a way that is sensible and thoughtful. So would therapies that can reduce the deadliness of the disease. These ought all to be a part of any smart cost-benefit analysis, and it feels like that should go without saying!

Whatever cost-benefit analysis we make absolutely needs to be based on real science and real data, it needs to include scientific voices and not marginalize or demonize them. It needs to be intelligent and thoughtful and measured. It needs to be led by people who can play the long game, and who are willing to actually consider long-term solutions, not quick fixes for political gain. Rushing to reopen because people are impatient and buying into conspiracy theories and because a president wants to get reelected this year is absolutely not acceptable. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by serial muse

[elaine567]

2 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

And maybe the other change will be that people start to give a shyt about their elder family members...

Hopefully but it seems to me there are many that want to let this virus rip to save the economy and to get their old lives back.
They don't care a damn about the old and infirm...
"They would have died anyway..."

[contel3]

I guess what deconfinement will look like depends greatly on where you live. My guess is that borders will stay closed for quite a while and Covid will ravage some parts of the world while other will go back to some degree of normalcy.

Lets take the situation in Africa for example. It is, unlike many western countries, a very young continent, with a significant percentage of people earning their money on the day to day. Now, strict lockdowns have been imposed, and one could argue the lockdowns are just as much a threat as Covid - because of people potentially dying from hunger. So arguably lockdown isn't a viable solution for a big part of the world to begin with.

Given enough time this is a problem everyone will face, so assuming the Virus is not contained there is no way lockdowns can be maintained for several years without people and governments running out of money. So things will have to go back to normal at least to some degree, with or without a vaccine.

I wouldn't go as far as to say we will all catch it though.

If you look at the situation in Austria, numbers have been going down. Things have been opening up for several weeks already and there have not been a huge amount of deaths. Hospitals are empty and doctors out of work. Covid is still around, but for everyone to catch it, at this rate it would take several years.

 

So my guess would be that your future looks very different depending on where in the world you are. Some countries will probably go back to a degree of normalcy very soon, while others will be struggling with the consequences for years to come. Random fact, did you know the last Ebola case was right before lockdown started?

For those of us fortunate enough to live in a prosperous part of the world, I think it will be a situation where we just have to live our lives with Covid around, monitoring the cases and keeping them low enough so that they can be contained. It probably won't be "normal" but it won't be a lockdown either.

[amaysngrace]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

I don't fully believe that. If we all followed the natural selective order of things many of us would already be long dead or would not have been been born.

We have medicine and use medicine. Including preventive medicine and preventive measures and we're generally all glad to use nearly all of them.

I don’t take medicine but I’ll admit to using them for recreational purposes 🤣

Anyway, medicine to keep some part of the body functioning is nothing more than a form of life support.  It doesn’t mean the person taking it is healthy now because they take medicine.

I totally fail to see your point. 

[SincereOnlineGuy]

22 hours ago, Wave Rider said:

What's Our End Game Strategy for COVID-19?

 

To avoid the end  of your game.   

 

Why is that not obvious  to you and everyone else?

[sothereiwas]

It's easy to confuse goals with strategies I guess. 

[CaliforniaGirl]

5 hours ago, elaine567 said:

Hopefully but it seems to me there are many that want to let this virus rip to save the economy and to get their old lives back.
They don't care a damn about the old and infirm...
"They would have died anyway..."

I tend toward depression as it is, it's a lifelong thing, and this has taken its toll immensely but what has really gotten to me is my in-laws. They're both pretty sick already but each is in a holding pattern. Neither "should" die imminently, is what I'm saying. That's how it's been for a year. But then CV-19 hit. And after that it was this tremendous pressure of constantly trying to convince them to stay inside. For the whole first month I'd call and my MIL would go "Oh, yes, I was 'good' today, I didn't go out at all, except to CVS and I washed my hands right afterward." (None of us even had masks yet and Amazon, ebay and everywhere else had long since been pillaged of supplies.)

I'd pretty much feel my hair spontaneously falling out. I know I'm not, well, my in-laws' parents so I couldn't really lay down the law. So I was in a real position. I wound up running out constantly with as much covered up as I could manage and trying to scour any and every store to pick up anything they'd later say they'd have "forgotten" from their list and just had to run out for the minute I turned my back...I was exhausted...and then I was afraid I'd get sick and bring it home to my family and it was a mess...

My husband kept saying to let it go because we couldn't control what they did but I kept thinking, if one of them died...how would I tell my kids...

Finally they figured out that this was a serious thing and now for the past month and a half or so I swear I've been slopping from couch to computer back to couch and have about managed to slap some water on in the shower and do the barest housework, I am spent from those weeks, I feel like I'm a hundred and ten years old and that decades have been taken off my life, it sucked, the constant constant worry for those two.

I hear people just toss aside the old folks because meh, X amount of people die each year anyway and I just want to tear the rest of my hair out. I honestly can never believe it.  Oh well.

[CaliforniaGirl]

By the way, I want to get out as much as the next woman. I am definitely a window-licker. Every day gets worse but I don't want to kill anyone and I know previous generations had to go through literal hell in so many ways. I don't think those who are for not rushing into reopenings are enjoying this any more than anyone else. All of it sucks. It's just...we don't want to kill anyone.  

[sothereiwas]

We're in phase 1 since Friday here. Could have done it a month ago with no likely additional repercussions, as we've basically been COVID-free here except the local VA hospital, which one would hope knows how to run a quarantine properly. 

[nospam99]

My strategy:

Stop travel. International travel, interstate travel, local travel, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, whatever it takes to establish disease-free geographic 'zones'. It's okay to expand those zones or to combine adjacent zones IF the disease-free condition can be maintained.

Isolate the carriers and quarantine them for as ever many weeks the doctors finally determine it takes for the virus to run it's course. Or quarantine them for the rest of their lives if necessary. There used to be TB hospitals, ya know.

To anyone who says ''we can't do that'', I call bullshyt.

This is NOT rocket science .... or computer programming (a somewhat equally knowledge-intensive skill) either.

[CaliforniaGirl]

3 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

We're in phase 1 since Friday here. Could have done it a month ago with no likely additional repercussions, as we've basically been COVID-free here except the local VA hospital, which one would hope knows how to run a quarantine properly. 

Not phase 2? Wasn't phase 1 the initial phase?

[CaliforniaGirl]

1 minute ago, nospam99 said:

My strategy:

Stop travel. International travel, interstate travel, local travel, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, whatever it takes to establish disease-free geographic 'zones'. It's okay to expand those zones or to combine adjacent zones IF the disease-free condition can be maintained.

Isolate the carriers and quarantine them for as ever many weeks the doctors finally determine it takes for the virus to run it's course. Or quarantine them for the rest of their lives if necessary. There used to be TB hospitals, ya know.

To anyone who says ''we can't do that'', I call bullshyt.

This is NOT rocket science .... or computer programming (a somewhat equally knowledge-intensive skill) either.

That's like phase negative one.

[CaliforniaGirl]

We're one of only two counties (but obviously they're big counties) in CA that didn't go to P2.

[sothereiwas]

12 minutes ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

Not phase 2? Wasn't phase 1 the initial phase?

Phase 1 (of 3) is limited reopening of "non-essential" businesses and removal of the shelter in place order, with continued social distancing and other precautions. Also random testing for new cases is required, and a plan to clamp back down has to be in place. I'm sure there are other caveats as well but those are the high points I believe. 

For more info read the plan as outlined by the government, google "President Trump has unveiled Guidelines for Opening Up America Again".

CA, as usual, is off in some alternative wilderness trying to do its own thing, and has a 4 phase plan. Maybe they had to have an extra phase to figure out how to distribute sticks to the homeless so they could start burying their poop. Who knows. 

[amaysngrace]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

I don't think those who are for not rushing into reopenings are enjoying this any more than anyone else. All of it sucks. It's just...we don't want to kill anyone.  

It’s not so black and white as you make it seem.  Staying shut down or killing people aren’t the only two options available.  

Believe it or not we can safely open things up where people of known high risk can exercise caution.  

And even people without high risk can exercise caution.  

It doesn’t need to be all or nothing like you’re implying.