What's Our End Game Strategy for COVID-19?

[Wave Rider]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

By the way, I want to get out as much as the next woman. I am definitely a window-licker. Every day gets worse but I don't want to kill anyone and I know previous generations had to go through literal hell in so many ways. I don't think those who are for not rushing into reopenings are enjoying this any more than anyone else. All of it sucks. It's just...we don't want to kill anyone.  

Now I think we're having a real conversation.  The predicament we're in is the Trolley Problem, which you may have heard of: a runaway trolley is careening down the tracks towards five people who are tied to the tracks.  You are standing next to a lever that you can pull that will change the tracks so that the trolley goes down a different track and kills only one person.  So what's the most moral thing to do - do you pull the lever so that you can kill one person to save five lives?  Or is it wrong to intentionally kill someone no matter what the circumstances, so you let the trolley run its course and kill five people?  The point of the trolley problem is that there isn't a correct answer - it's a moral dilemma, and whatever choice you make, people will die.  

The trolley problem has manifested itself this way: is it moral to force 30+ million people into indefinite unemployment to save 2 million lives (using figures from the United States)?  Most people seem to think so.  We've switched the trolley tracks, or so we believe, and we've saved some people's lives by destroying the livelihood of other people.  Or so we believe. 

And that's part of the point that I'm making.  If we can't find a vaccine, we aren't actually saving very many lives through quarantine procedures.  If we're all eventually going to get the disease, then the elderly/sick people who will get it will eventually die anyway, quarantine or not.  We may save some lives by taking some of the burden off the health care system, but if we all eventually get the disease, many deaths will follow regardless of mitigation efforts. 

CaliforniaGirl, I appreciate your empathy and desire to do no harm in the world by not killing anyone.  But I argue that you are already partially responsible for some deaths and may have directly caused others.  If you live in the United States, your tax dollars go towards a military that kills people.  Whoever your voted for as president, that person has/would have ordered the deaths of many people in military strikes.  If you've ever had the flu, you may have given the flu to an elderly person who eventually died from it.  There are about 600,000 deaths from the flu worldwide every year, so what's the difference between giving someone a lethal flu and giving someone COVID-19?

That's another point here.  We already make decisions as a society about what the military calls "acceptable losses."  Every year worldwide, 1.25 million people die in car accidents, and yet no one is calling for a quarantine against cars.  Why not?  Because we consider 1.25 million deaths to be an acceptable loss.  We sacrifice those 1.25 million people so that we can all enjoy transportation in cars.  It's the same with the flu.  About 600,000 people die worldwide every year because of the flu, and we don't have lockdown quarantines against the flu because we consider 600,000 deaths to be an acceptable loss so we can all go about our business without wearing masks.  

Here's what I'm saying: for some reason, we as a world community have decided that deaths from COVID-19 are not acceptable losses, even as we continue to believe that car accident deaths and flu deaths are acceptable losses.  In the absence of a vaccine, we can return to life as normal when COVID-19 deaths become normalized - meaning that we determine those deaths to be acceptable losses.  That's when we can return to normal.  

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Wave Rider

[basil67]

9 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

While all of you are talking about how things are going to change, and how kids wont go to schools anymore,  cars and trucks wont run, etc, businesses will die off etc......that's great....but then how are you going to convince the population to keep paying taxes?   And if they revolt on this(because let's face it, that's what they tell all of us that they need the taxes for) how are you going to run anything or pay all the people that don't have income and all the other related government programs that need to be funded./?

Granted I'm talking from another country so my experiences may be different......I don't think these changes will happen.  Kids will still learn - whether it be face to face or remote, the teachers will still be working.   Cars will run because (here) we're being told to avoid public transport and there are people who can't work from home.  Trucks will certainly run because buying online has become such a huge thing.   One of my mates drives semi trailers for parcel delivery and it's busier for Xmas for them because people aren't going out.  These drivers are working maximum overtime and are getting contractors in to help.   I think delivery would be a great area to invest in right now.   Taxes will pay for the same things they always have.

As for the people who don't have income, we do as we did in previous crashes - we support them and re skill them.   Yes, some jobs will reduce or disappear, but just as in the past with technology changes (starting with the industrial revolution) new jobs will come.  

9 hours ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Maybe it will make people far more health conscious...The large numbers of deaths clearly affecting people with controllable existing conditions like obesity, lack of exercise, tobacco/drug use, etc.....If I was one of those people I wouldn't be posting all the cookies and cakes I am consuming during lockdown, and making jokes about how fat I am getting, I would be doing something about this.....Right now....

I don't know about that.  People react to different things in different ways.  I wonder if it will exaggerate people's natural tendencies.  The health nuts will get more healthy.  The sloths will become more slothful.  

[major_merrick]

I'm afraid the end strategy is another big government push for mandatory vaccination.  I hope that isn't the case, but .gov "never lets a crisis go to waste."  Many of the attacks on freedom will be here to stay, just like 9/11 and other events.  The severity of this has been fabricated for a purpose, and I am wary of it. 

My end game is to use my time to consolidate my wealth, consolidate my supplies, and make lists of the things I need to do.  And once COVID slacks off a bit this summer and my baby is born, I'm going to throw all my energy at preparing to prosper in the middle of Round #2, which I predict will show up in time for the holidays.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

7 hours ago, amaysngrace said:

It’s not so black and white as you make it seem.  Staying shut down or killing people aren’t the only two options available.   

It doesn’t need to be all or nothing like you’re implying. 

 

Until such time as when we can select who we kill then those are indeed the only sensible options available before such time as when a vaccine swoops in to save the day.

 

The numbers soon to follow will strongly suggest same.

 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by SincereOnlineGuy

[schlumpy]

3 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

Until such time as when we can select who we kill then those are indeed the only sensible options available before such time as when a vaccine swoops in to save the day.

 

The numbers soon to follow will strongly suggest same.

 

 

Just speaking for the government I know, they cannot as yet pick out individuals to kill in effective numbers but their policies do set up conditions to favor one group over another. A recent example being Governor Cuomo blabbing about saving the lives the elderly and then forcing nursing homes to take in Covid infected patients.

 

[carhill]

CA is all over the place. It ranges from continuing to pay displaced workers UI benefits after they've returned to work to proposing closing a large veterans home in SoCal to giving state workers a 10% pay cut to distributing 125 million to illegal aliens to AB3121, paying reparations to African-Americans for something that happened hundreds of years ago. Oh, well. Usually, the end game is votes but CA will die as prog central, there's no going back now so IDK what they're doing.

[sothereiwas]

16 hours ago, Wave Rider said:

Every year worldwide, 1.25 million people die in car accidents

Every year in the USA about 3 million people die of various causes. We don't freak out about it because we don't have a running year-to-date tally every day in the news. If we eventually lose 300,000 this year to COVID-19, which seems like a really high estimate at this juncture, that's a huge number, and would still bump the yearly total deaths from something like 2,800,000 to 3,100,000 based on recent numbers. That's a lot of people, but it's good to try and keep it in perspective. We make choices about public policy that contribute to inflating that 2,800,000 number routinely every year. That's how it works. This situation can't be treated any differently. 

[Logo]

We are discovering new things about this virus every week, like the new cases of children who are developing complications similar to those caused by Kawasaki disease. The virus has killed strong, healthy adults under 50 and under 40 and under 30. 
 

There is no “protecting the weak” unfortunately. Everyone is at some level of risk, some are at higher levels while others are at lower levels, and it’s not necessarily age-related although there are outliers. But there is no way of knowing with absolute certainty how it is going to affect every person. Everyone that gets exposed to the virus is taking a chance. There are also asymptomatic cases. 
 

I expect that there will be no return to normal as we knew it. The virus will boomerang for the next 3 years with or without a vaccine and the world will have to adapt as we go. 
 

Even animals and pets catch it. Consider the ramifications of that. We still don’t know if birds can catch it. Countries are closing borders, but animals don’t see or care about borders. 
 

That things will go back to normal is wishful thinking. It’s comforting. It gives one hope. In some cases it’s also ignorance. But the reality is that with every major event, humanity has had to change its habits. 
 

What we are seeing now is only the tip of the iceberg of the ramifications resulting from this pandemic. Global economic models will change, countries will consider modifying their foreign policies, we could see more famine, wars, or poverty in places we never imagined before. Agriculture could change, massive migration will take place, the world as we used to know it is going to be different.
 

Now these are long terms effects, say 2 to 20 years from now. In the meantime, some seem more concerned with going back to the gym or getting their nails done. 

[Art_Critic]

13 minutes ago, Logo said:

We are discovering new things about this virus every week, like the new cases of children who are developing complications similar to those caused by Kawasaki disease. The virus has killed strong, healthy adults under 50 and under 40 and under 30. 
 

 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

It kills the old by at large..

BTW, pneumonia kills more young people than does Covid-19

I'm not putting the young in any lower category or saying that they don't matter but Covid-19 is still protect the weak...

 

 

[amaysngrace]

18 minutes ago, Logo said:

Agriculture could change,

Please God I hope so.

[BC1980]

5 hours ago, schlumpy said:

Just speaking for the government I know, they cannot as yet pick out individuals to kill in effective numbers but their policies do set up conditions to favor one group over another. A recent example being Governor Cuomo blabbing about saving the lives the elderly and then forcing nursing homes to take in Covid infected patients.

 

What exactly happened with Cuomo and the nursing homes? Nursing homes should be able to quarantine COVID patients themselves. 

[mark clemson]

On 5/17/2020 at 5:42 PM, Wave Rider said:

For me, there seems to be a clear reality that few people are willing to acknowledge: unless we develop a vaccine, everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus.  Everyone.  This will be true regardless of whether or not people wear masks, wash their hands, keep businesses closed, work from home, and vigilantly adhere to the best safety practices.  In the absence of a vaccine ...  Being safe" won't help you anymore that it has saved you from getting colds in the past. 

I think you're right about the eventual complete spread (one way or another) and some of the leading experts have been suggesting it could become endemic for a while now. I also like how you framed the issue in your original post.

One thing that's missing from your reasoning is, while there may be no cure for the common cold, there are plenty of treatments for the symptoms. At any corner drugstore, an american can easily obtain:

- Zinc cough drops to slow it down/lessen severity

- Hydrogen peroxide (and even some mouthwashes, possibly) to do the same thing

- Decongestants (including some quite powerful ones if you've ever had the 12 hour stuff) for sniffles

- Pain relievers for aches/pains/chills

- Cough drops, cough syrup, and mild anesthetics for coughs and sore throat

That's all OTC. A trip to the doctor's office can get much better stuff if needed, including an asthma inhaler to aid breathing if necessary.

Then there's the treatments available at a hospital.

It's a specific virus and basically all the big drug companies are working on it one way or another. There's already an approved anti-viral treatment. While it won't stop you from getting it, it apparently makes the severity significantly lower (although that still needs to be fully proven). Many more are in testing.

You may be right that we're past the point of eradicating this now and I agree vaccines will likely only be partially effective. IF that's all correct, the endgame will be that we'll just have to aggressively treat the sh*t out of it.

Edited May 19, 2020 by mark clemson

[amaysngrace]

Yesterday at my test the nurse said there are eight strains now detected.  Eight.

I wouldn’t hold out hope for a vaccine anytime soon. 

[BC1980]

I don't know how many stains of COVID-19 exist, but vaccines usually take years to make. I'm not banking on one. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by BC1980

[sothereiwas]

15 minutes ago, amaysngrace said:

Yesterday at my test the nurse said there are eight strains now detected.  Eight.

I wouldn’t hold out hope for a vaccine anytime soon. 

It's hard to say. The viral payload apparently has many variations now, but the sheath is reportedly pretty stable so far, and that's what the current crop of vaccines are targeting. I'm no expert but that's what I've read multiple places. I think it's hard to predict at this point how that's going to work out. My intuition is this will become like the flu, a periodic inoculation with the occasional bad guess and subsequent upsurge in cases. 

[Wave Rider]

2 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Every year in the USA about 3 million people die of various causes. We don't freak out about it because we don't have a running year-to-date tally every day in the news. If we eventually lose 300,000 this year to COVID-19, which seems like a really high estimate at this juncture, that's a huge number, and would still bump the yearly total deaths from something like 2,800,000 to 3,100,000 based on recent numbers. That's a lot of people, but it's good to try and keep it in perspective. We make choices about public policy that contribute to inflating that 2,800,000 number routinely every year. That's how it works. This situation can't be treated any differently. 

My first response to this whole quarantine was a response of "whataboutism."  What about the 251,000 Americans who die every year from medical errors?  Why don't we care about those people?  What about the 37,000 people who die in car accidents, or the 45,000 who die because they don't have adequate health insurance?  What is so special about COVID-19 that dying from it is much more tragic than dying from other causes?  

I just had a facebook friend report that her friend tragically died in a canyoneering accident, leaving behind a husband and young child.  Why don't we make canyoneering illegal?  

A few years ago there was a student (pedestrian) at my university who was killed when she was struck by a car.  No laws were enacted and no motor vehicle policies were changed as a result of that tragic death.  So far there have been no deaths from COVID-19 at my university, but massive policy changes have been enacted, even though it seems to me that being a pedestrian at my university is more dangerous that being exposed to the virus.  

Can some one fill me in on why dying from the virus is so much worse than dying from all the other totally legal ways that people die? What makes this particular way of dying so special?

Edited May 19, 2020 by Wave Rider

[Ruby Slippers]

I think we're just going to have to learn to live with it. This and other diseases aren't going away. 

I was hoping this situation would instigate a major shift in matters of justice and equality. But that seems as unlikely as ever in this world.

[Wave Rider]

17 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said:

I was hoping this situation would instigate a major shift in matters of justice and equality. But that seems as unlikely as ever in this world.

This is another thing I was hoping for.  I was thinking that maybe this would give us an incentive to reorganize our patchwork social safety net and our horribly broken healthcare system, but so far I only see a reinforcement of the status quo.  

Since the unemployment situation highlights a particular weakness of our healthcare system - when you lose your job, you lose your health insurance - I thought that this weakness might instigate change.  But so far, very few people in Washington seems to have any interest in changing that system. 

 

[sothereiwas]

27 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said:

I was hoping this situation would instigate a major shift in matters of justice and equality. But that seems as unlikely as ever in this world.

I'm hoping for a major shift in matters of personal space and hygiene. I admit, my hopes are smaller in scope but I think we have a shot. 

[Ruby Slippers]

4 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

I was thinking that maybe this would give us an incentive to reorganize our patchwork social safety net and our horribly broken healthcare system, but so far I only see a reinforcement of the status quo.  

Since the unemployment situation highlights a particular weakness of our healthcare system - when you lose your job, you lose your health insurance - I thought that this weakness might instigate change.  But so far, very few people in Washington seems to have any interest in changing that system. 

Exactly. It's such a sad, tragic racket. We should be capable of so much better.

[BC1980]

41 minutes ago, Wave Rider said:

My first response to this whole quarantine was a response of "whataboutism."  What about the 251,000 Americans who die every year from medical errors?  Why don't we care about those people?  What about the 37,000 people who die in car accidents, or the 45,000 who die because they don't have adequate health insurance?  What is so special about COVID-19 that dying from it is much more tragic than dying from other causes?  

I just had a facebook friend report that her friend tragically died in a canyoneering accident, leaving behind a husband and young child.  Why don't we make canyoneering illegal?  

A few years ago there was a student (pedestrian) at my university who was killed when she was struck by a car.  No laws were enacted and no motor vehicle policies were changed as a result of that tragic death.  So far there have been no deaths from COVID-19 at my university, but massive policy changes have been enacted, even though it seems to me that being a pedestrian at my university is more dangerous that being exposed to the virus.  

Can some one fill me in on why dying from the virus is so much worse than dying from all the other totally legal ways that people die? What makes this particular way of dying so special?

Dying from COVID-19 isn't any worse than dying from another cause. The public health response to COVID-19 is CURRENTLY different than other causes of death for the following reasons: 

1. It's only been around for several months, so we don't have a lot of data on how it acts. For example, there are theories that it causes some kind of clotting disorder, and, only a few weeks ago, we learned that it causes a Kawasaki type syndrome in pediatric patients. 
 

2. Because it's only been around for several months, we don't have enough data on things like death rate, hospitalization rate, long term effects, ect. 

3. We don't know if we can completely get rid of COVID-19 this go round, if there will be additional waves, or if it will become endemic to the population. 

4. No known cure 

5. No vaccine 

6. No herd immunity 

7. It WAS unknown how our healthcare system would hold up under the peak of COVID-19.

8. It is still unknown how well our healthcare system will hold up if there is a 2nd wave that dovetails with our usual flu season. 
 

All of the above are reasons the public health response to COVID-19 is different than other public health issues like the HIV epidemic or influenza. We have tons of data those two diseases processes, so we've been able to weave our responses to them into the normal fabric of the healthcare system. In time, COVID-19 will either go away or become endemic to the population and be treated like HIV or the flu. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by BC1980

[Ruby Slippers]

2 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

I'm hoping for a major shift in matters of personal space and hygiene. I admit, my hopes are smaller in scope but I think we have a shot. 

I'm not holding my breath on that one. Even now, plenty of obnoxious people crowd right up against me reaching over me for their produce at the grocery store, can't wait 5 seconds till I'm done. Perhaps I should start breathing on them like a dragon.

[sothereiwas]

9 minutes ago, Ruby Slippers said:

I'm not holding my breath on that one. Even now, plenty of obnoxious people crowd right up against me reaching over me for their produce at the grocery store, can't wait 5 seconds till I'm done. Perhaps I should start breathing on them like a dragon.

I can still dream.

[Wave Rider]

14 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

1. It's only been around for several months, so we don't have a lot of data on how it acts. For example, there are theories that it causes some kind of clotting disorder, and, only a few weeks ago, we learned that it causes a Kawasaki type syndrome in pediatric patients. 
......................

8. It is still unknown how well our healthcare system will hold up if there is a 2nd wave that dovetails with our usual flu season. 

Those things are all true, but I don't think that's what is causing the worldwide lockdown.  I would argue that the reason we care much more about COVID-19 deaths than car accident deaths is that car accident deaths are a much more socially acceptable - or normalized - way to die than COVID-19 deaths.  The virus is so new that we have not yet normalized deaths from it, but over time we might.  When death from COVID-19 because socially acceptable the way that car accident deaths are socially acceptable, then we'll be back to normal.  

Some deaths are still not socially acceptable, i.e. commercial airline crashes.  Commercial airline crashes are worldwide headline news, but car crashes are not, even though car crashes kill far more people.   Why?  Because death from car accident is normalized, but death from commercial airline crash is not normalized.  Airline crashes are tragic, but car crashes are just a normal part of life.  

This is my case for COVID-19.  It's not our lack of scientific knowledge; but rather, the newness of it means that death from it has not yet become normalized and socially acceptable. 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Wave Rider

[BC1980]

I can see your point, but I would add that car accidents are much more common than airline crashes. Death from a plane crash is extremely rare. But I think that's why we've normalized car accidents. It's very possible that COVID-19 could become like the flu and be normalized.
 

With regards to COVID-19, 90,000 deaths in 8 or so weeks is a lot. Something else to consider is that we had 90,000 deaths with social distancing measures. What if we hadn't taken any social distancing measures, and the death toll was twice as high? What would the public reaction be? No one knows what the death toll would have been or how the healthcare system would have held up if we had done what Sweden is doing.