The argument of citing less deaths keep popping up

[QuietRiot]

I am getting tired of anti-maskers saying that the MSM is putting out there the number of cases rising, however, they get irritated and say, "No one is paying attention the deaths are DECREASING!" Apparently, less deaths make the world of a difference.

Those that survived, well...let's just say they suffered a lot of pain and anguish. So which would you choose? Death or pain and suffering?

[elaine567]

Trouble is there is a lag between cases and deaths of 2-3+ weeks, so if there was say a decrease in cases a few weeks ago then the deaths today will be lower but increasing cases today mean in a few weeks time the deaths will spike too.
Once hospitalised or on a ventilator, some will take weeks/months to get better or die...

[QuietRiot]

2 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

Trouble is there is a lag between cases and deaths of 2-3+ weeks, so if there was say a decrease in cases a few weeks ago then the deaths today will be lower but increasing cases today mean in a few weeks time the deaths will spike too.
Once hospitalised or on a ventilator, some will take weeks/months to get better or die...

Yeah, but I am seeing deaths have been trending by several weeks as going down. Due to the Dexamathosone being administered and the ability to manage the disease. At least that's some kind of silver lining. But when people argue this, that isn't the point...the point is to slow the spread, but instead...people are exasperating it.

[clia]

3 hours ago, QuietRiot said:

I am getting tired of anti-maskers saying that the MSM is putting out there the number of cases rising, however, they get irritated and say, "No one is paying attention the deaths are DECREASING!" Apparently, less deaths make the world of a difference.

Those that survived, well...let's just say they suffered a lot of pain and anguish. So which would you choose? Death or pain and suffering?

The number of deaths does make a difference, though.  Right now the estimated infection fatality rate that I'm seeing is about 2-3x that of the flu overall -- lower for younger people and higher for older people.  If the infection fatality rate drops lower, then IMO that should be very pertinent to the strategy/plan going forward.  We shut down because models were estimating millions of deaths.  That said, like Elaine said, death is a lagging indicator, so I guess we'll see how things look within the next 3-4 weeks.      

[BC1980]

There could actually still be a lag in deaths. Those numbers could go up at some point because they are related to surging hospitalization. We only saw these surges a week or so ago. 
 

At this time, I actually don't think deaths is the most important statistic to measure. For me, hospitalization rate is more important because more COVID related hospitalizations mean more economic devastation to the healthcare industry, which has an effect on the economy as a whole. 

[Kitty Tantrum]

I'm tired of people believing everything the government officials and the news reporters tell them, even when they've been blatantly and flagrantly contradicting themselves over and over this whole time.

Deaths and hospitalizations are a VERY IMPORTANT METRIC to follow when we already KNOW that "confirmed cases" are: 1. based only on positive test results, and 2. increasingly "asymptomatic," and 3. unreliable at best based on what we know about the accuracy/specificity/error rate of the tests that are available and in widespread use.

But by all means, keep sipping on your steaming hot cup of fear.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Kitty Tantrum

[amaysngrace]

I haven’t seen you around too much @Kitty Tantrum so I naturally had to see what you had to say. 

Thank you for cracking me up❣️

 

[QuietRiot]

On 7/2/2020 at 3:01 PM, Kitty Tantrum said:

I'm tired of people believing everything the government officials and the news reporters tell them, even when they've been blatantly and flagrantly contradicting themselves over and over this whole time.

Deaths and hospitalizations are a VERY IMPORTANT METRIC to follow when we already KNOW that "confirmed cases" are: 1. based only on positive test results, and 2. increasingly "asymptomatic," and 3. unreliable at best based on what we know about the accuracy/specificity/error rate of the tests that are available and in widespread use.

But by all means, keep sipping on your steaming hot cup of fear.

Well, if its any consolation, the hospitalizations are sky rocketing in some states. Esp. AZ and Florida. Not sure how that's a good thing.

Okay, say that deaths are going down. Would you like to spend time, in pain and suffering...in a hospital?  That's like saying you survived a fire with 2nd and 3rd degree burns, but you spent months in the hospital in agony...but hey, at least you survived *sarcasm*

[QuietRiot]

1 minute ago, enigma32 said:

I'm more interested in hospitalizations than anything else. They are doing a lot more testing, at least around here, and Dr. Birx already said that the tests aren't accurate. 

Okay, I'm confused. I thought they weren't (past tense) accurate. I figured they now had become accurate. I mean, LabCorp even is selling At -Home Covid tests. I figured they'd be accurate now for home use.

I am thinking you're meaning that the stats on the no. of cases are the ones that aren't accurate.

[Philosopher]

22 hours ago, elaine567 said:

Trouble is there is a lag between cases and deaths of 2-3+ weeks, so if there was say a decrease in cases a few weeks ago then the deaths today will be lower but increasing cases today mean in a few weeks time the deaths will spike too.
Once hospitalised or on a ventilator, some will take weeks/months to get better or die...

In the United States, the increase in daily cases started in mid June. So with a 2 to 3 lag in deaths, the number of deaths should start increasing around now. I guess we will have to see what has happened in terms of deaths by the end of next week.

[Art_Critic]

It isn't just the US death toll,  or State death toll...Worldwide it's going down.

source "Worldometer"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator

[QuietRiot]

22 minutes ago, Art_Critic said:

It isn't just the US death toll,  or State death toll...Worldwide it's going down.

source "Worldometer"

 

 

 

Right, and that could likely be due in part of the pumping up the usage of Dexamethosone of those that are hospitalized. 

[elaine567]

Dexamethasone is no Covid wonder drug, but anything proven to help prevent death in some patients is great news..

Quote

Based on these results, 1 death would be prevented by treatment of around 8 ventilated patients or around 25 patients requiring oxygen alone...There was no benefit among those patients who did not require respiratory support

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-16-dexamethasone-reduces-death-hospitalised-patients-severe-respiratory-complications#

[mark clemson]

Seems to me that deaths have been going down because many folks are doing what's necessary to reduce the spread AND there are effective treatments. There is a small sliver of folks who are probably immune now as well (at least temporarily - it's not clear how long natural immunity lasts).

When people stop taking precautions and the hospitals fill up to capacity and/or run out of treatment meds/equipment, we could reasonably expect the death rate to start increasing again.

None of this should shock anyone - it's cause and effect.

[nittygritty]

6 hours ago, QuietRiot said:

Well, if its any consolation, the hospitalizations are sky rocketing in some states. Esp. AZ and Florida. Not sure how that's a good thing. Surprised you actually showed yourself as you are in a predominately science believing thread.

Okay, say that deaths are going down. Would you like to spend time, in pain and suffering...in a hospital?  That's like saying you survived a fire with 2nd and 3rd degree burns, but you spent months in the hospital in agony...but hey, at least you survived *sarcasm*

Are the hospitalizations actual COVID cases in ICU?  I’m not saying they are not but many surgical procedures were delayed for months because they were considered “elective” and not being performed so it stands to reason that the number of hospitalizations are skyrocketing. I’m not saying that’s the reason but it certainly would significantly increase now that most states are performing a backlog of those procedures. 

[elaine567]

7 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

Are the hospitalizations actual COVID cases in ICU?

Not necessarily in ICU some Covid patients just need oxygen and other medical support. Some will then be well enough to go home, and others will end up in ICU.

[Weezy1973]

Crazy America, where even just discussing facts, like fewer deaths, becomes a left / right tribal battle.
 

I think it’s probably best see what happens. Deaths might go up, but better of course if they don’t. Might be, as some have already predicted, that the virus has mutated to a less lethal strain. That’s pretty typical. Viruses don’t last long if their hosts keep dying, so becoming less lethal will see an increase in infections, but fewer deaths. We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks...

 

 

[BC1980]

A few possible reasons I've come up with as to why the death rate is down-

1. Lag in deaths from the states hit really hard about a week and a half ago (Arizona, Florida, Texas, California). 
2. Many of the most vulnerable have already died. 
3. People taking better precautions. Nursing homes taking better precautions. 
4. Treatments have gotten better. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by BC1980

[Art_Critic]

4 minutes ago, BC1980 said:

A few possible reasons I've come up with as to why the death rate is down-

 

IMO..

5. The age of the patients getting the new cases is way down, 18-28 or something like that due to the bars being open and the protestors as well as that age feels invincible.

6. Maybe the virus is getting weaker

[Minneloa]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/health/coronavirus-mortality-testing.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Kitty Tantrum]

3 hours ago, Art_Critic said:

IMO..

5. The age of the patients getting the new cases is way down, 18-28 or something like that due to the bars being open and the protestors as well as that age feels invincible.

6. Maybe the virus is getting weaker

7. They have only recently massively expanded testing into this demographic. The error rate of the test ALONE (false positives) will cause a spike in "cases" when you start mass-testing.

All in all, the tests just aren't great. I suspected that from the beginning, knowing what I already know about PCR tests and other kinds of testing, and absolutely NOTHING I've read even attempts to deny that. Most people don't know that, and haven't researched it, and assume that a "confirmed case" means that they found someone who 1.) is sick and that 2. SARS-CoV-2 has been definitively identified as the cause. From that perspective, the "rise in confirmed cases" sounds pretty scary.

This is quite a leap from the actual truth. Based on what is SCIENTIFICALLY KNOWN (for all you "believers") about these tests, there WILL BE a sizeable chunk of people who are NOT sick, and do NOT even have that virus in their bodies, but for whom the test will come back "positive."

This would be the case EVEN IF the virus SARS-CoV-2 had actually been truly and correctly isolated - which it has not been (also not denied by any credible source).

This also means that a portion of reported "COVID-19 deaths" are mis-attributions. But death/hospitalization numbers at least provide a better idea of how many people are actually INFECTED WITH SOMETHING, because they're actually sick and dying.

Many "asymptomatic confirmed cases" are false positives. Sometimes it's sample or test kit contamination, sometimes it's the fact that the test can flag positive due to OTHER coronaviruses as well (or possibly, any kind of inflammatory response).

TO A CERTAIN POINT, "better safe than sorry" is a good mantra.

But the simple fact is that if you test the entire population enough times, everyone will eventually be a "confirmed case" even if they've never had any contact with SARS-CoV-2 at all.

[QuietRiot]

30 minutes ago, Kitty Tantrum said:

7. They have only recently massively expanded testing into this demographic. The error rate of the test ALONE (false positives) will cause a spike in "cases" when you start mass-testing.

All in all, the tests just aren't great. I suspected that from the beginning, knowing what I already know about PCR tests and other kinds of testing, and absolutely NOTHING I've read even attempts to deny that. Most people don't know that, and haven't researched it, and assume that a "confirmed case" means that they found someone who 1.) is sick and that 2. SARS-CoV-2 has been definitively identified as the cause. From that perspective, the "rise in confirmed cases" sounds pretty scary.

This is quite a leap from the actual truth. Based on what is SCIENTIFICALLY KNOWN (for all you "believers") about these tests, there WILL BE a sizeable chunk of people who are NOT sick, and do NOT even have that virus in their bodies, but for whom the test will come back "positive."

This would be the case EVEN IF the virus SARS-CoV-2 had actually been truly and correctly isolated - which it has not been (also not denied by any credible source).

This also means that a portion of reported "COVID-19 deaths" are mis-attributions. But death/hospitalization numbers at least provide a better idea of how many people are actually INFECTED WITH SOMETHING, because they're actually sick and dying.

Many "asymptomatic confirmed cases" are false positives. Sometimes it's sample or test kit contamination, sometimes it's the fact that the test can flag positive due to OTHER coronaviruses as well (or possibly, any kind of inflammatory response).

TO A CERTAIN POINT, "better safe than sorry" is a good mantra.

But the simple fact is that if you test the entire population enough times, everyone will eventually be a "confirmed case" even if they've never had any contact with SARS-CoV-2 at all.

 

There are those who are not hospitalized that simply feel like crap, and though it doesn't warrant hospitalization, the suffering can linger for weeks, perhaps past a month. Sometimes the symptoms go away, you feel better, than it hits you again later.

[Kitty Tantrum]

4 minutes ago, QuietRiot said:

There are those who are not hospitalized that simply feel like crap, and though it doesn't warrant hospitalization, the suffering can linger for weeks, perhaps past a month. Sometimes the symptoms go away, you feel better, than it hits you again later.

That sounds like a lot of illnesses I had in childhood.

Did nobody else grow up being warned not to overtax themselves while on the mend from ANY illness, due to the risk of relapse? Happened to me at least twice that I remember, with the relapse being worse than the initial onset of the illness.

Was nobody else ever sick for a month or more, with residual symptoms lasting weeks? Again, I can recall at LEAST twice in my life where I was sick for a month, and with a residual cough for 3-4 weeks after feeling otherwise better.

What I'd like to have an accurate picture of is HOW MUCH WORSE this actually is compared to other bugs that have gone around with a whole lot less hysteria.

With what we know about the tests AND the way they're counting numbers (in some instances, two positive tests from the same individual are recorded as two separate "confirmed cases"), it's not really possible to know at this point. We may NEVER know. But looking at the data of who is affected enough to end up hospitalized or dead offers some clues.

So far it seems at least moderately worse than any flu season in recent history. But there is still enough room for error that it could actually be pretty comparable to the 2017-2018 flu season (estimated 80k deaths in one winter).

[QuietRiot]

10 hours ago, Kitty Tantrum said:

That sounds like a lot of illnesses I had in childhood.

Did nobody else grow up being warned not to overtax themselves while on the mend from ANY illness, due to the risk of relapse? Happened to me at least twice that I remember, with the relapse being worse than the initial onset of the illness.

Was nobody else ever sick for a month or more, with residual symptoms lasting weeks? Again, I can recall at LEAST twice in my life where I was sick for a month, and with a residual cough for 3-4 weeks after feeling otherwise better.

What I'd like to have an accurate picture of is HOW MUCH WORSE this actually is compared to other bugs that have gone around with a whole lot less hysteria.

With what we know about the tests AND the way they're counting numbers (in some instances, two positive tests from the same individual are recorded as two separate "confirmed cases"), it's not really possible to know at this point. We may NEVER know. But looking at the data of who is affected enough to end up hospitalized or dead offers some clues.

So far it seems at least moderately worse than any flu season in recent history. But there is still enough room for error that it could actually be pretty comparable to the 2017-2018 flu season (estimated 80k deaths in one winter).

Sounds like you're just reaching by comparing Covid to previous illnesses, when it's apples and oranges by comparison. 

Covid has exceeded the 2017/18 flu by much more, and the rate by which deaths occured with Covid far surpasses that of any flu

Just check out how on this craft is skyrockets come beginning of April. It shows Covid back last year and the other yearly flus.  

Again, apples and oranges.

 

Then here's a more about comparing every epidemic fatality rate to that of Covid 19

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by QuietRiot

[QuietRiot]

Also, Covid is much diff...as a FLU or even swine flu, this one impacts multiple systems, whereas the flu, it's respiratory. It's an inflammatory issue.