The argument of citing less deaths keep popping up

[amaysngrace]

On 7/5/2020 at 10:28 AM, BaileyB said:

Those who have not had good leadership, a coordinated response, and the support/compliance of the general population are at the top of the leaderboard as it relates to infection rates and deaths...

 

7 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Total deaths per million:

1. New Jersey --> 1751
2. New York --> 1664
3. Connecticut --> 1220
4. Massachusetts --> 1204
5. Rhode Island --> 921
6. DC --> 805
7. Louisiana --> 728
8. Michigan --> 629
9. Illinois --> 580
10. Maryland --> 546

Just wow...

[Ellener]

The usual narrow range of human opinion or emotion doesn't apply very easily to the topic death toll.

The truth is no one knows how long this coronavirus outbreak will continue, or what will evolve as the perfect pandemic policy of the future.

Every community is different,  and life's easy to judge when it's happening to someone else or at a distance.

It will be a combination of factors to be examined, stuff like comparing the number of deaths versus the effect on the economy at the time versus the ability to recover over time.  

The facts aren't all in yet, and this is going to be a long year. 

 

 

[Piddy]

I've heard that the ratio of cases to deaths has a lag to it.  So the jury may be out of that yet on that.   But it could be that more younger people are getting tested than before and they are less likely to die from the virus.  Or maybe it's mutated to a lesser type and is less deadly.  We simply don't know.

I think one of the more interest debates is if the virus is spread more by aerosol as well.  This method of spreading the virus is like duct particles that stay in the air for as long as 3 hours.  Where the larger virus's normal respiratory particles drop to the floor more rapidly.

[Redhead14]

8 hours ago, nittygritty said:

Do you think people are wearing face masks when they have sex?  Or should having sex be banned too?

Revised below .  . .

Edited July 11, 2020 by Redhead14

[Redhead14]

8 hours ago, nittygritty said:

Do you think people are wearing face masks when they have sex?  Or should having sex be banned too? The government trying to make not wearing a face mask a crime is beyond ridiculous! 

People need to stop having sex with virtual strangers and start having some morals to eliminate indiscriminate sex and FWB, FBuddies, etc.  Established couples who have been isolating and taking measures to at least minimize risk, can/should be intimate.  If they are committed, they just need to trust one another and/or be willing to say we are together in this and if one gets it, we both get it, so be it.  If a couple isn't that bonded, they should go on their separate ways.  I'd put dating on hold at least for a while.  You don't know what strangers are doing when you're not together and can't trust them to at least be careful.

[d0nnivain]

8 hours ago, nittygritty said:

Do you think people are wearing face masks when they have sex?  Or should having sex be banned too? The government trying to make not wearing a face mask a crime is beyond ridiculous! 

What 2 consenting people do is vastly different then how one behaves in public.  Guess what having sex in public in full view of others IS illegal so your analogy is off. 

A mask protects others.  I shouldn't be limited in my ability to go to church, to the market, or to work if the person can't work from home, just because other people want to be reckless.  

 

I want to be encouraged by the declining death numbers.  I hope that means this thing isn't quite as lethal.  It could be that medical science is just keeping people alive longer  

[elaine567]

The virus does not care a damn about the sex lives of humans.
The more sex they have, the more opportunities the virus has to transmit and find a new "victim"...
All these "Its not fair" or "We can't be expected to live like that" arguments are nonsense when we are faced with a virus.
The virus does not listen to human reason or whining... It listens to its own reason and it follows its own agenda...

 

[BaileyB]

11 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Total deaths per million:

1. New Jersey --> 1751
2. New York --> 1664
3. Connecticut --> 1220
4. Massachusetts --> 1204
5. Rhode Island --> 921
6. DC --> 805
7. Louisiana --> 728
8. Michigan --> 629
9. Illinois --> 580
10. Maryland --> 546

 

Who was doing a great job again? How much did locking down and staying locked down help? Where in this list are the states that opened back up?

 

Just you wait... this is far from finished in Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and Mississippi. In fact, it’s only beginning... considering that deaths tend to lag infections by a few weeks. 

And FYI, I was referencing the global response - with the leaders at the time being the US, Brazil, and Russia. 

Edited July 11, 2020 by BaileyB

[Ellener]

6 hours ago, Piddy said:

Or maybe it's mutated to a lesser type and is less deadly. 

We have data collation here which says the latest strain is more deadly also that so far, Blood Type O is less represented in the sick, which may be significant. 

Or not. It's still early days.

5 hours ago, d0nnivain said:

It could be that medical science is just keeping people alive longer  

We definitely aren't seeing all the perplexity here in Houston which happened in NY when doctors first realised Covid's not a typical flu type thing, there's expertise in managing the 'low oxygen' and 'thickened blood' in incoming patients, plus the equipment is all in place and constantly being improved.

However what we are seeing is an overwhelming of the hospital beds numbers.

I'm not even going out except to walk my dog at night for the next week...people who don't want to stay in should use their face-coverings so as not to cough or sneeze on anyone, hand wash frequently, touch as little as possible, and stay six feet away from others much as possible as per CDC and WHO and local guidelines pretty much everywhere now.

[lana-banana]

Today's update from the COVID-19 Tracking Project:

"Testing plateaued this week for the first time since mid-May. Cases rose to record levels anyway. Hospitalizations increased; Florida's new reporting made the numbers jump. Deaths moved up this week—the first time we’ve seen a weekly rise since April...States reported 63k cases, the second-highest number ever, after yesterday (67k). The average number of daily deaths reported by states over the last 7 days rose by 150 from Saturday to Saturday...Cases are rising in 3 out of the 4 major US regions, but the South is experiencing the worst effects. These regions hold a much larger percentage of the American population than the hardest hit areas in the spring outbreak. Deaths are now rising quickly in the states where cases and hospitalizations have been increasing over the past month. This is a growing segment of the country, and will likely continue. Today is the first day on which two states (ed: Texas and Arizona) reported more than 10k cases. While most attention has been focused on the big outbreaks across the southeast and in Arizona, there are several states outside the region that look to be on the verge of seeing much higher levels of transmission."

[BaileyB]

From a CBC article today - deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks and we are now starting to see the expected increase in deaths. 

But - it also said “Another factor, tragically, is that deadly new viruses often tear through vulnerable populations first, such as the elderly and people already weakened by other health conditions. That means in the Northeast, at least, "many of the vulnerable people have already died.”

Now, the U.S. is likely in for "a much longer, slower burn. We're not going to see as many deaths [as in the spring]. But we're going to see a total number of deaths, which is going to be large."

The elderly and vulnerable populations in the south and the west are still very much at risk. I hate to say it, but the southern states are often reported to be the most “unhealthy” in the US as it related to obesity and physical activity. As such, I predict that there will be more deaths in younger individuals considering that this disease seems to disproportionately affect those who are obese and have coexisting health conditions. 

[basil67]

22 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

How much did locking down and staying locked down help? 

With all due respect, those of us who've been seriously locking down and staying locked down have been shocked at horrendous breaches in the US.   From anti-lockdown protests, to BLM riots to church gatherings ...made worse by contradictory information coming from various government bodies at federal or state level.   If you'd been locking down in the same way we did, borders shut tight with only a tiny amount of dissent, you would be seeing a different outcome to us at present.

HOWEVER, even for those of us who locked down well and reduced new infections to single digits, the second wave will be a force to deal with.   Our state of Victoria (pop. 6.5 mill) has started spiking with new cases of >200 per day due to bungling of returning expats.   Victoria has gone back into lock down with state borders closed.   So yeah, even though it can be managed with much cooperation from the people and governments, I'm not sure that lock down, unlock and re-locking is going to be an answer.  It's all such a mess 😢

So....no answers here.   It's all trial and error really.

[CaliforniaGirl]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:42 AM, nittygritty said:

Second hand smoke isn’t contagious? Getting killed by a drunk driver isn’t contagious? Sure it is. And totally preventable. People want to make it illegal to not wear a face mask in public but keep alcohol and tobacco products legal. And further want to legalize marijuana cuz it’s so healthy for people, lol. I haven’t seen any homeless people or panhandlers with their face masks on yet. I guess they haven’t got the memo yet. Are they arresting any of them yet for leaving needles or taking a dump outside ? Or is that considered okay during a “pandemic”? Along with rioting, vandalizing, destroying property and looting as long it’s called a “protest”.

Drunk driving IS illegal. Not a strong recommemdation, not "get out of my store if you're going to drive drunk...don't you see the sign?" But illegal.

Smoking locales are severely restricted across the entire nation. 

[CaliforniaGirl]

Not speaking of people here specifically. But as a general thing, honestly, if I hear the "...well, if you want to live your lives in fear" shaming one more time from a faction mired in conspiracy theories, "media" being out to "control us," terror of a vaccine, surety that the "hoax" is intended to take away guns (somehow), and hysteria that trying to keep people well means anti-patriots hate America and want to see it tank economically so they can dance on the carcass of the once-strong nation, I'll probably choke on my COVID.

I'm (probably generously) leaving aside the truly mentally ill paranoia of how Bill Gates is funding a vaccine to make people sterile so as to institute the New Order, and other such mind-boggling hysteria from a group laughing at me for "living in fear." Of, you know. Something that actually does exist. 

[CaliforniaGirl]

I'm also just a hair mystified as to how an argument could be made that, with tests apparently so incorrect, there must be a huge number of false positives, without taking into account that this would mean there could also be a huge number of false negatives.

We are big babies who tantrum if we can't go bowling and therefore, yes, adhesion to the recommendations has been spotty at best.

And therefore this is going on. And on. And on. And on.

[QuietRiot]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

Not speaking of people here specifically. But as a general thing, honestly, if I hear the "...well, if you want to live your lives in fear" shaming one more time from a faction mired in conspiracy theories, "media" being out to "control us," terror of a vaccine, surety that the "hoax" is intended to take away guns (somehow), and hysteria that trying to keep people well means anti-patriots hate America and want to see it tank economically so they can dance on the carcass of the once-strong nation, I'll probably choke on my COVID.

I'm (probably generously) leaving aside the truly mentally ill paranoia of how Bill Gates is funding a vaccine to make people sterile so as to institute the New Order, and other such mind-boggling hysteria from a group laughing at me for "living in fear." Of, you know. Something that actually does exist. 

Yeah, and for the life of me....I actually had to discontinue conversations with friends on FB because they actually believed in this crap. Before it all happened, I actually had pretty good friendships....then...it's like "I don't know this person anymore, I better start talking to them before I accuse them of being a tin foil hat wearer and totally landblast the friendship".

[QuietRiot]

I live in Florida, a more rural part of Florida....the numbers in OUR county were really slowly going up. Like 1's and 2's per day. Not much. I actually felt kind of safe.

THen we opened things back up...and the #'s HERE skyrocketed!  The Disney World theme park opened Saturday, and Deadline Hollywood posted videos with THE SHINING theme, showing how social distancing isn't panning out as planned at the lines at the parks. Schools are opening in August.

I can actually FEEL the noose tightening around my little town. Sadly, these backwater hicks where I live are still droning on about "media hype" and "fear mongering". 

Some douche bag actually posted something in our local boards, shaming our city for not being patriotic by canceling fireworks (due to Covid) as well as not having decorated the town with American flags. He was actually SHAMING the city for this. But, he did give praise to a local hardware store for putting up their own flag.

Where I work, the attitude is, "WEll, we're all 'bound to get it...eventually...why fight it?"  They figure it's inevitable. 

I live in a cluster of towns, and ONE of these towns actually put up a mask mandate, and people said, "Well, I'll just drive the extra 10 miles to a neighboring town to shop there. THat city LOST my business!"

[elaine567]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaGirl said:

Not speaking of people here specifically. But as a general thing, honestly, if I hear the "...well, if you want to live your lives in fear" shaming one more time from a faction mired in conspiracy theories, "media" being out to "control us," terror of a vaccine, surety that the "hoax" is intended to take away guns (somehow), and hysteria that trying to keep people well means anti-patriots hate America and want to see it tank economically so they can dance on the carcass of the once-strong nation, I'll probably choke on my COVID.

I'm (probably generously) leaving aside the truly mentally ill paranoia of how Bill Gates is funding a vaccine to make people sterile so as to institute the New Order, and other such mind-boggling hysteria from a group laughing at me for "living in fear." Of, you know. Something that actually does exist. 

I think a lot of these deniers are actually very scared and are scrabbling about trying to "prove" it doesn't exist or it isn't true, as they are finding it hard to process the enormity of the whole thing...

[QuietRiot]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

I think a lot of these deniers are actually very scared and are scrabbling about trying to "prove" it doesn't exist or it isn't true, as they are finding it hard to process the enormity of the whole thing...

AKA Cognitive Dissonance 

[clia]

On 7/11/2020 at 9:37 PM, basil67 said:

With all due respect, those of us who've been seriously locking down and staying locked down have been shocked at horrendous breaches in the US.   From anti-lockdown protests, to BLM riots to church gatherings ...made worse by contradictory information coming from various government bodies at federal or state level.   If you'd been locking down in the same way we did, borders shut tight with only a tiny amount of dissent, you would be seeing a different outcome to us at present.

HOWEVER, even for those of us who locked down well and reduced new infections to single digits, the second wave will be a force to deal with.   Our state of Victoria (pop. 6.5 mill) has started spiking with new cases of >200 per day due to bungling of returning expats.   Victoria has gone back into lock down with state borders closed.   So yeah, even though it can be managed with much cooperation from the people and governments, I'm not sure that lock down, unlock and re-locking is going to be an answer.  It's all such a mess 😢

So....no answers here.   It's all trial and error really.

I'm honestly starting to wonder if, in the long run, the US won't be that bad off, just from an ability to move forward perspective.  (Yes, I realize people are dying.  It's a pandemic.  People are going to die.  These things happen and have happened throughout history.)  Case numbers are very high right now as it burns through the south, but this is a virus that isn't going to just disappear.  It seems like it needs to make its way through the population, and will do so, no matter what.  We can try to hold it off with lockdowns, but that doesn't eliminate it, and will lead to second, third, etc., waves until it does what it's going to do.  The states that are seeing huge spikes now didn't really see that back in March/April, so it's their turn to go through what the northeast already went through.  The USA is a huge country, so it just makes sense to me that different parts of the country are going to peak at different times.  Much of Europe has already gone through this, and maybe that's why they've been able to reopen without huge spikes.  I'm not saying that FL, TX, CA, AZ, etc. handled this perfectly by any means, but IMO it's just not realistic for a state to remain on lockdown for months and months -- not only from an economic perspective, but because people just won't do it.  They had to reopen at some point, and given where their numbers were, it didn't seem unreasonable for them to reopen when they did.  Things obviously went crazy after the openings, Memorial Day, the protests, people crossing from Mexico, and that could've been handled better, but at this point it seems like they just need to ride it out.  I don't see any of those states getting anywhere near the death numbers in NY, even when all is said and done, but I guess we'll find out.    

I'm just wondering what places like Australia and New Zealand are going to do long term.  In theory it seems great that they've almost eliminated the virus, but the rest of the world hasn't.  And we're seeing in Victoria that it doesn't take much for it to get going again, given the susceptibility of the population.  Fourteen day quarantines for anyone coming in means no tourism, business travel, no traveling for residents/citizens to see friends/family in other countries or leave the country (unless you can afford the time off work to do the quarantine when you return), etc.  It just doesn't seem realistic to me.  And depending on a vaccine seems pretty risky, since we really don't know if that will happen or how effective it will even be.

So, I just wonder -- is it better to eliminate it from your country in the beginning with hard lockdowns and end up forcing yourself into an isolated position from the rest of the world, or to  let it burn through your population at the outset and just get through it?  It just seems inevitable.          

[BaileyB]

Quote

So, I just wonder -- is it better to eliminate it from your country in the beginning with hard lockdowns and end up forcing yourself into an isolated position from the rest of the world, or to  let it burn through your population at the outset and just get through it?  It just seems inevitable.        

  It’s not inevitable. 

The current thinking is that it’s not possible to completely eliminate the virus long term, the goal should be to manage the risk and minimize infections. We are trying to do just that - we are learnIng how to live with the virus, while we wait for a vaccine. This summer, we have successfully been able to reopen the economy in Canada, Australia, NZ, and parts of Europe while still saving lives. We still have cases, but testing and contract tracing has allowed us to isolate the cases such that it hasn’t affected the economy or the general population. The US could have been in the same position, had the people been willing to make the sacrifice and done a proper lockdown. That didn’t happen, which means that the country has no other choice now but to let this thing take its course. 

You forget, Europe has opened its borders to many countries, including Canada and Australia. If anyone is isolated from the world right now, it’s the US. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. 80%+ of the Canadian population hopes that the US/Canadian border stays closed indefinitely. If anything, I see the restrictions getting tighter for everyone this winter as we move into cold and flu season and we don’t have the ability to distinguish between COVID and influenza A without testing. 

If it’s a decision between economics and protecting human life, the US has chosen the economy. Truthfully, many have just selfishly chosen to ignore the recommendations because they are inconvenient. Compliance with public health recommendations have just been MUCH higher in other countries that have been able to get the pandemic under control.

Again, this tremendous loss of life didn’t need to happen. At this point, the US has little choice but to let it run its course... But at what cost? 135,000 lives and counting at this point...

Edited July 13, 2020 by BaileyB

[clia]

1 hour ago, BaileyB said:

  It’s not inevitable. 

The current thinking is that it’s not possible to completely eliminate the virus long term, the goal should be to manage the risk and minimize infections. We are trying to do just that - we are learnIng how to live with the virus, while we wait for a vaccine. This summer, we have successfully been able to reopen the economy in Canada, Australia, NZ, and parts of Europe while still saving lives. We still have cases, but testing and contract tracing has allowed us to isolate the cases such that it hasn’t affected the economy or the general population. The US could have been in the same position, had the people been willing to make the sacrifice and done a proper lockdown. That didn’t happen, which means that the country has no other choice now but to let this thing take its course. 

It hasn't affected the economy or the general population in Canada, Australia, NZ, and parts of Europe?  I'm surprised to hear that.  I don't know all the reopening details of what is going on in the world, but I was under the impression that large scale events like sports, concerts, theater, etc. aren't happening, or if they are, it is at much lower capacity (that probably isn't financially sustainable for long).  That seems like a pretty big part of the economy.  Seems like the travel industry has also been hit pretty hard -- airlines, cruise, hotels, etc.    

But you are right -- the people in the US were willing to deal with a lockdown for a limited amount of time, but that was about it.  At this point less than 1% of the entire US population has tested positive for coronavirus, so I think a lot of people just don't see it as much of a risk and prefer to live their life.  I know a number of people who are on vacation in FL right now, which I personally think is nuts, but to each their own.  And to be fair, we have parts of the US that have reopened and are doing just fine.  The US is an enormous country -- our three largest states (CA, FL, TX) never got slammed in March/April when Europe and NYC area did, so they are getting it now.  I suppose if they would've kept everything closed, the numbers could've been flattened out over a longer period of time, but it isn't.  It's spiking just like it did in NYC.       

Quote

You forget, Europe has opened its borders to many countries, including Canada and Australia. If anyone is isolated from the world right now, it’s the US. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. 80%+ of the Canadian population hopes that the US/Canadian border stays closed indefinitely. If anything, I see the restrictions getting tighter for everyone this winter as we move into cold and flu season and we don’t have the ability to distinguish between COVID and influenza A without testing. 

I don't blame any country for wanting to keep the US out right now.  But are they going to keep the US out forever?  (Maybe?  I doubt it.  I read Europe is losing billions from lack of US tourists.)  And honestly, I see a lot of other countries still reporting hundreds and thousands of new cases each day -- all you need is one case under the right circumstances and boom.  It just doesn't seem sustainable to me, but that's just my opinion.   

Quote

If it’s a decision between economics and protecting human life, the US has chosen the economy.  Truthfully, many have just selfishly chosen to ignore the recommendations because they are inconvenient. Compliance with public health recommendations have just been MUCH higher in other countries that have been able to get the pandemic under control.

It's not feasible to lock everyone in the USA in their homes for months on end.  Not only due to the economy, but from a logistics perspective, and because people just wouldn't do it.  Most people need social interaction, to be able to see their friends and family, to be able to work so they can pay their bills, buy food, attend school, etc.          

Quote

Again, this tremendous loss of life didn’t need to happen. At this point, the US has little choice but to let it run its course... But at what cost? 135,000 lives and counting at this point...

We'll have to see the numbers of excess deaths for 2020, I guess.  I'm also very concerned about the number of deaths resulting directly from the lockdowns -- suicide, people not getting vaccinations or going to the doctor because they are afraid of getting coronavirus, lack of preventive care due to fear of coronavirus, etc.  I feel like the latter is going to be the bigger number, to be honest.  But I guess we'll find out.     

[sothereiwas]

I'm also not an expert, but it seems to me just by applying reasoning and also observation that the new Wu flu is not going away soon, possibly ever. What that would seem to leave us with is a scenario where the way forward consists of better treatments and herd immunity via exposure to either the virus or vaccination. As the supply of infectable hosts is reduced the incidence rate of infections will fall. Until then, try to keep people from being injured or killed. 

To do all those things, we have to be able to afford treatment, care, and research. Connect the dots. 

[lana-banana]

2 hours ago, BaileyB said:

 If it’s a decision between economics and protecting human life, the US has chosen the economy.

This annoys me---not you, BaileyB, just the formulation as it's posed in the media---because it's not even a real choice. If 4% of your population (current mortality rate in the US) dies of a disease and exponentially more are crippled or severely injured, what "economy" do you have left? In the US, coronavirus has affected 23 out of 10,000 white people, 62 out of 10,000 Black people, and 73 out of 10,000 Latino people*. This is a disease that disproportionately strikes the most vulnerable, particularly the people upon whom our economy needs most. We have already seen coronavirus affect meatpacking plants and produce harvesting operations. How exactly is it "choosing the economy" if our food supply chains break down?

None of this was necessary. Had we issued nationwide lockdown orders and mask mandates in early March, we could have prevented 90% of cases**. We could have paid individuals to stay home and paid businesses to get by, as they did in Europe. Instead the government abandoned us entirely, leaving states to struggle for a totally inadequate, piecemeal response that's left us where we are today. We wasted three crucial months during which 135,000 people died---and for what? For us to debate whether "only .02 percent of schoolchildren" (that's about 14,000) in America will die of coronavirus?

Imagine what could've happened if we had a nationwide lockdown, mandated masks and three months of guaranteed stimulus payments for people and small businesses. We might be on our way back to localized openings like parts of Europe and Asia. We could have chosen to do something about this in a way that put health and safety first and cared for our people like a civilized country. We just...didn't.

 

*= NYT, July 5th, "The Fullest Look Yet at the Racial Inequity of Coronavirus", based on CDC and state reporting

** = epidemiologists Nicolas and Britta Jewell; April 14th, 2020, "The Huge Cost of Waiting to Contain the Pandemic"

Edited July 13, 2020 by lana-banana

[sothereiwas]

"In May, the CDC published a document titled "Pandemic Planning Scenarios," with estimates about the virus to help modelers and public health officials.  .... 

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%. 

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%.

According to NPR, the CDC has revised the estimate downward from its estimate in mid-April. Internal versions of the CDC scenario documents acquired by the Center for Public Integrity show that on April 14, the CDC had estimated a 0.33% fatality rate. That was up from a March 31 estimate of 0.16%."