The argument of citing less deaths keep popping up

[sothereiwas]

32 minutes ago, Angelle said:

There's a huge discussion (argument) going on in a local group on facebook, over masks now being mandatory. A guy actually asked me why we're seeing new cases, if lockdown worked. He claimed that it was supposed to wipe out the disease (I don't know anyone who believed that). So he doesn't believe that it's real. 

Some people thought that was possible. For me, it seems like since this bug started with (most likely) one infected person, it should be intuitively obvious that it's not going away due to host starvation. But I'm not an expert, so my intuition may be off here. But all it seems like it would take is one or a few people infected for it to restart. Pretty tough gig to force people to choose between, say, letting the kids starve or risking exposure, or letting dad die of a stroke or risk exposure. Some person-person contact is inevitably going to happen. 

Seems like. 

 

30 minutes ago, Angelle said:

In March, once I got over the initial fear, and preparation for quarantine, I actually thought that it would be this simple. Get through the lockdown, adjust to new, and hopefully temporary rules, for a year or so. We couldn't hold it together for a month. 

Meh. I'm always working from home, the only change is I can't take the family out to dinner every 5-10 days now. It's not a huge change for us. 

[Angelle]

41 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

Some people thought that was possible. For me, it seems like since this bug started with (most likely) one infected person, it should be intuitively obvious that it's not going away due to host starvation. But I'm not an expert, so my intuition may be off here. But all it seems like it would take is one or a few people infected for it to restart. Pretty tough gig to force people to choose between, say, letting the kids starve or risking exposure, or letting dad die of a stroke or risk exposure. Some person-person contact is inevitably going to happen. 

Seems like. 

 

Meh. I'm always working from home, the only change is I can't take the family out to dinner every 5-10 days now. It's not a huge change for us. 

I meant, as a whole. My life didn't change much, either, but I knew that others weren't doing so well - but that's when the conspiracy theories started up, and people have just gone to town with it since. Also things I can't get into, in this forum, because they're political. 

[QuietRiot]

13 hours ago, Angelle said:

Masks are now mandatory in my county, thanks to people who don't want to make this easier for everyone. Our numbers are shooting up. We had been doing so well.

Angelle, are the locals loosing their s*** now that it is only the LOCAL goverments trying to take control of their little (or big) cities?  Noticed the more back water cities that are resistent to this. 

"Well, I won't be shopping at the Publix in my city, I'll just drive the extra 10 miles to shop at the other Publix"

Where I live, a [redacted] lawyer has decided to become the new "ambulance chaser" but with mask mandates instead. Suing city halls for making these mandates.

Edited July 10, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator

[QuietRiot]

41 minutes ago, Angelle said:

I meant, as a whole. My life didn't change much, either, but I knew that others weren't doing so well - but that's when the conspiracy theories started up, and people have just gone to town with it since. Also things I can't get into, in this forum, because they're political. 

Yeah, back in March/April...when it was all new....well, when I would begin conversations with my chat buddies on FB, some I know in real life, I'd start off with, "Man, can you believe this virus? Pretty scary stuff!"

And, for the first time in my life, it was like invasion of the body snatchers....when I'd never thought I'd hear something so unchararacteristic of a friend that I've known for a while say, "It's the 5G networks causing all this"

Me: "I don't know who you ARE ANYMORE!!"

[Angelle]

1 hour ago, QuietRiot said:

Angelle, are the locals loosing their s*** now that it is only the LOCAL goverments trying to take control of their little (or big) cities?  Noticed the more back water cities that are resistent to this. 

"Well, I won't be shopping at the Publix in my city, I'll just drive the extra 10 miles to shop at the other Publix"

Where I live, a nut job right wing lawyer has decided to become the new "ambulance chaser" but with mask mandates instead. Suing city halls for making these mandates.

I live about an hour away from Cleveland, Ohio. I'm between two smaller cities, and close to a small town - I live almost in the middle of nowhere, if you can't drive. If you can, the cities are 20-30 minutes away. 

That's exactly the kind of reaction they've had here. It's split down the middle: some are fine with it, and just want everyone to do their part to take it seriously, so that we can get through it. The rest are saying, "I'll just shop in Stark then!" Or, "my body, my choice!" things like that. One man who is supposed to be in charge here, said that we have to do it, but he doesn't like it - that it isn't about a virus, and that's when I had to get away from the computer for a while. 

[QuietRiot]

6 hours ago, Angelle said:

I live about an hour away from Cleveland, Ohio. I'm between two smaller cities, and close to a small town - I live almost in the middle of nowhere, if you can't drive. If you can, the cities are 20-30 minutes away. 

That's exactly the kind of reaction they've had here. It's split down the middle: some are fine with it, and just want everyone to do their part to take it seriously, so that we can get through it. The rest are saying, "I'll just shop in Stark then!" Or, "my body, my choice!" things like that. One man who is supposed to be in charge here, said that we have to do it, but he doesn't like it - that it isn't about a virus, and that's when I had to get away from the computer for a while. 

So you're a member of some of the local Facebook groups? We get these people that post pictures of fender benders or "Why is their police the McDonalds?" questions. lol. I am guessing these are the stay at home moms/house wives that have nothing else better to do. Anyways, going on a tangent, but yeah....but I wonder if those that threaten to shop some place else....are REALLY just bluffing? No one is going to waste gas as a form of protest.

Hey, there's this local big flea market that's located OUTSIDE the city or the edge or whatever, of SAID city that put this mandate in place. Apparently, they were wondering if they need to wear masks in this open air flea market. Keep in mind, there is a indoor building that would be probably 20% of that market though. (The A/C portion). Anyways, there was a debate going back and forth on how it really doesn't constitute "City limits" and isn't under said mandate.

I really didn't want to go down that rabbit hole though....as vendors were up in arms about it, esp. the outdoor vendors. You have to wonder how specific you'd have to be when questions come up like this. THe nuances. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by QuietRiot

[Angelle]

5 hours ago, QuietRiot said:

So you're a member of some of the local Facebook groups? We get these people that post pictures of fender benders or "Why is their police the McDonalds?" questions. lol. I am guessing these are the stay at home moms/house wives that have nothing else better to do. Anyways, going on a tangent, but yeah....but I wonder if those that threaten to shop some place else....are REALLY just bluffing? No one is going to waste gas as a form of protest.

Hey, there's this local big flea market that's located OUTSIDE the city or the edge or whatever, of SAID city that put this mandate in place. Apparently, they were wondering if they need to wear masks in this open air flea market. Keep in mind, there is a indoor building that would be probably 20% of that market though. (The A/C portion). Anyways, there was a debate going back and forth on how it really doesn't constitute "City limits" and isn't under said mandate.

I really didn't want to go down that rabbit hole though....as vendors were up in arms about it, esp. the outdoor vendors. You have to wonder how specific you'd have to be when questions come up like this. THe nuances. 

Yes, I am. I joined to keep up with anything that might be happening in or around our tiny towns, and we get similar posts.

We live on the border of both counties, and have to do most food shopping in those cities, so we have to drive anyway. If they do, Stark will probably go up to level 3, and then they'll have to drive even further, or put on a mask to enter a store. 

[Kitty Tantrum]

On 7/8/2020 at 1:12 PM, Angelle said:

It sounds like my vet takes it more seriously than the healthcare workers you know.

The whole point of being careful, even if you're asymptomatic, is that you're still in danger of spreading it to others. 

Effectively containing the spread of illness has always been possible with basic measures:

1. Regular hand-washing, done properly and at all appropriate intervals.

2. Good hygiene practices, which relates to point 1. above: don't go around touching things and then touch your mucus membranes. Don't touch your mucus membranes/bodily fluids and then go around touching things.

3. Sick people (that is, people with symptoms) stay the F home.

All this business about "asymptomatic cases," and being fearful that someone who does not have symptoms of any illness might somehow give you something deadly, is plain silliness. I have all the time in the WORLD these days to go chasing stories down rabbit holes, and I cannot find a single reason to believe that this is happening. I see no reason whatsoever to believe that a "confirmed case" without any symptoms is anything more than a FALSE POSITIVE test result which has not been properly scrutinized.

I think my healthcare providers have a very realistic idea of how diseases spread, and have identified the same issues I have. They're not laughing and rolling their eyes about the virus itself - that's not a joke. The JOKE is PPE mandates based on feelings and optics instead of evidence.

I had a good chuckle with my PT today, because apparently now all the staff are required to wear not just a mask, but also a FACE SHIELD when seeing patients. We hardly have anyone who is actually sick with this thing in my area anymore. Only "confirmed cases" though contact tracing. Nearly all "asymptomatic" - which is the same thing as saying NOT INFECTED.

This thing peaked back in MARCH in my county. It peaked and started falling BEFORE they took any practical measures against it, and has been steadily trending downward since - yet restrictions and requirements become tighter and more burdensome week by week - handed down by politicians who are NOT doctors, on the advice of politicians who have "doctor credentials" but haven't actually practiced medicine in years (decades?), and have all but admitted to lying to the entire population multiple times throughout this whole ordeal - and have EXPLICITLY ADMITTED to counting "cases" in such a way as to inflate the numbers. That's the joke.

Counting "cases" without actually looking at how many of those are sick is a great way to end up needlessly hysterical.

[Redhead14]

27 minutes ago, Kitty Tantrum said:

handed down by politicians who are NOT doctors,

And YOU are ????? 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Redhead14

[Kitty Tantrum]

8 minutes ago, Redhead14 said:

And YOU are ????? 

Uhhh no, but my DOCTORS are. 😆

And so is every doctor who has openly criticized national/local response to this mess. Unless you're one of those "can't be a REAL doctor if they disagree with ME" sorts...

[Redhead14]

1 hour ago, Kitty Tantrum said:

Uhhh no, but my DOCTORS are. 😆

And so is every doctor who has openly criticized national/local response to this mess. Unless you're one of those "can't be a REAL doctor if they disagree with ME" sorts...

I have not heard one doctor criticize the response in my area.  And, my doctor who is also a doctor, tells me I should mask up as much as possible even if outside but in an area that is crowded.  My doctor says there's no such thing as being too careful and that every little precaution we can take is worth taking until we've had a good amount of time to observe and evaluate and learn.  There is too much disarray and conflicting information right now for anyone to say we shouldn't at least make an effort even if as simple as a homemade mask.  My doctor says that there is no way anyone "out here" can know for certain what's right and what's wrong to do in terms of masks.  My doctor says that no one can convince him that at least some particles are prevented from being spread with homemade masks and that's better than none at all.

Edited July 10, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
Politics in a non-political forum.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 7/7/2020 at 8:04 PM, Kitty Tantrum said:

DEATHS are trending - that this virus is not very dangerous at all for the average person who is healthy and is not elderly.

 

You are so eager to believe the very data that you urge others not to believe.

 

DEATHS are trending downward mainly because the first people mass tested in the USA were the very senior citizens who were decimated by Covid.

 

Of course they died at a high rate, and now that others have decided to go out and pass the virus around as if it were candy, only to result in more and more younger people testing positive, the death rate  is naturally trending downward.     (as it does from stubbed toes as well, once you stop testing only the elderly and begin to test limber 9-year-old gymnasts as part of your set)

 

The facts are that this is still killing parents and grandparents at rates quite parallel to what they were much earlier... only now thousands more kids and grandkids are acquiring the disease, and most of them have two parents still around, and some remaining grandparents to pass the deadly disease to.

(society was just testing a very restricted corner of the entire human sample in the early days)

(couple that with more efficient combative measures at the doors of nursing homes...  and the numbers are artificially improving for reasons not especially tethered to the virus itself being any less deadly)

 

The problem with these selfish outlooks is that while anyone is free to bring a virus and accidentally  cause the death of one's own grandparent, that same grandma likely has numerous other grandchildren who might like her around for many more years.

 

If you want to artificially lower the statistical probability of dying from Covid  even further -     test more than just the sick...  get rid of the biased drive-up testing and test anybody who rides by on a skateboard or bike.   Go to the shopping mall and test everybody who is milling around inside or out.

And we remind you... your current numbers still reflect only times when the masses are staying home and not moving around society as they are wont to do.

 

So today's data  (July, 2020) has been so manipulated that it doesn't even matter when assessing the grand picture of Covid's future potential.

 

 

But manipulating data with your lone purpose being to make your own short-sighted position look better, is deceitful (and further biased against the clueless).

[Kitty Tantrum]

"SELFISH BLAH BLAH KILLING GRANDMA."

Okay, riiight.

Except, again and as always, I have to reiterate the fact that the people who have been slinging those accusations at me (at least the ones I actually know - no idea what YOUR particular practices are like) are and have always been the same people who exercise less actual caution than I do.

I'm over here advocating FOR CAUTION, but against FEAR. Tipping over from behavior driven by caution (reason) and into behavior driven by fear (emotion) is bad news.

And what I get is a whole bunch of kneejerk emotional reactions of "omg killing grandma" from the same effing people who scoffed at me for paying attention to this thing and preparing for it at the beginning of the year while they waited to care about it at all until the big news outlets told them to be scared. And, by and large, the same people who feel so smugly compliant with their facemasks and gloves on... but then they reach all up under their mask to pick their nose right before reaching for the door handle.

I'm not going to be shamed into behaving fearfully by people who show no evidence of being governed by reason.

[schlumpy]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

I have not heard one doctor criticize the response in my area.  And, my doctor who is also a doctor, tells me I should mask up as much as possible even if outside but in an area that is crowded.  My doctor says there's no such thing as being too careful and that every little precaution we can take is worth taking until we've had a good amount of time to observe and evaluate and learn.  There is too much disarray and conflicting information right now for anyone to say we shouldn't at least make an effort even if as simple as a homemade mask.  My doctor says that there is no way anyone "out here" can know for certain what's right and what's wrong to do in terms of masks.  My doctor says that no one can convince him that at least some particles are prevented from being spread with homemade masks and that's better than none at all.

Remember RED, he has license to protect that represents a good living. He has to go with the powers that be. 

[Redhead14]

16 minutes ago, Kitty Tantrum said:

who show no evidence of being governed by reason.

Reason dictates an abundance of caution when there isn't one single piece of consistent, reliable information out there.  Someone can jump up and down and yell from the mountain tops that they know exactly what's going on and what works and what doesn't.  They aren't doctors or virologists.  They are just regular people who think they can untwist the twisted stats/data/information and make a decision about what we should or shouldn't do.  No one is being unreasonable.  We are just wearing masks and asking others to do so and participate in at least making an attempt to manage this thing in a way that allows a little more freedom and mobility so we can all get on with life -- not just the ones who don't have to worry too much about it because they are low risk or, in some cases, invincible.  It's just common sense to cover our mouths/faces if there is something we can breath in or breath out that is harmful.  What's big F ing deal?  It's not like we are asking people to give up a limb or something.

[Redhead14]

Just now, schlumpy said:

Remember RED, he has license to protect that represents a good living. He has to go with the powers that be. 

The powers that BE????  The power that is is F ing Trump and he's taking it lightly and going against the very people we should be listening to.  My doctor says we should be listening to Fauci and Birx they are the "powers that be" in terms of the pandemic.  That's what they do.

[schlumpy]

Just now, Redhead14 said:

The powers that BE????  The power that is is F ing Trump and he's taking it lightly and going against the very people we should be listening to.  My doctor says we should be listening to Fauci and Birx they are the "powers that be" in terms of the pandemic.  That's what they do.

The "Powers that Be" I was referring to is the State Medical Board that listens when people complain about doctors. 

[Redhead14]

30 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

The "Powers that Be" I was referring to is the State Medical Board that listens when people complain about doctors. 

It doesn't matter which side the doctor falls on.  He might have one patient who would complain because he thinks we need to use an abundance of caution and another patient who would complain because he's taking it lightly.  He's chosen a stance and he's advising that way.  And, I agree with him.  It's just erring on the side of caution and there's no down side to doing that especially since it doesn't require very much of anyone.

[BaileyB]

3 hours ago, Redhead14 said:

I have not heard one doctor criticize the response in my area. 

Indeed. I have friends who are physicians and they sounded the alarm early. They are all complying with public health orders.

Dare I say it, but the only reason your PT was open to see you is because they were taking precautions. We had much discussion today about the fall - how are we going to be able to work completely virtually come fall. The concern is not now, because cases have dropped off in my area too. We are still being vigilant and preparing for fall and winter. 

[Redhead14]

3 minutes ago, BaileyB said:

Indeed. I have friends who are physicians and they sounded the alarm early. They are all complying with public health orders.

Dare I say it, but the only reason your PT was open to see you is because they were taking precautions. We had much discussion today about the fall - how are we going to be able to work completely virtually come fall. The concern is not now, because cases have dropped off in my area too. We are still being vigilant and preparing for fall and winter. 

We've been doing virtual appointments.  It's working really well.  I have a blood pressure machine and pulse/ox monitor so the pre-appt check up info can be done.   I had an echo a few months ago, so I don't need to go anywhere now except for a blood test on Monday and that is by appointment.

[Kitty Tantrum]

39 minutes ago, Redhead14 said:

Reason dictates an abundance of caution when there isn't one single piece of consistent, reliable information out there.  Someone can jump up and down and yell from the mountain tops that they know exactly what's going on and what works and what doesn't.  They aren't doctors or virologists.  They are just regular people who think they can untwist the twisted stats/data/information and make a decision about what we should or shouldn't do.  No one is being unreasonable.  We are just wearing masks and asking others to do so and participate in at least making an attempt to manage this thing in a way that allows a little more freedom and mobility so we can all get on with life -- not just the ones who don't have to worry too much about it because they are low risk or, in some cases, invincible.  It's just common sense to cover our mouths/faces if there is something we can breath in or breath out that is harmful.  What's big F ing deal?  It's not like we are asking people to give up a limb or something.

This isn't even the mask thread. I'm not debating whether wearing a mask is good or bad. If you read the actual mask thread, you'll find that I have no problem wearing a mask, even if it's only for the benefit of others, and even if that benefit is only for their FEELINGS (individuals around me) or for their not getting slapped with an absurd fine (stores I frequent).

This is about paying attention to the rates of (symptomatic) INFECTION and DEATH to get a picture of where we actually are health-wise with this thing.

My argument is not  (and never has been) "don't wear a mask" OR "don't bother distancing yourself from vulnerable populations."

My argument is simply: if you follow the metric of "confirmed cases" without paying attention to:

1. WHAT THAT MEANS

- and -

2. What percentage of those "cases" are actually associated with symptoms

- then -

3. You are failing to equip yourself with the necessary tools to respond to this situation, or any facet of it, in a rational way.

And this is demonstrated over and over again by the way folks who do this have pretty consistently attacked me or disparaged me -- for suggesting that it is necessary to dig just one layer deeper than the sensationalized popular media narrative, to get an accurate picture of what is actually known vs. what is not known, how the numbers are being reported, etc. -- and for daring to suggest that there is an effective approach to this situation that actually has nothing to do with everyone alternately gushing ("front line HEROES!!!!1") and raging ("ORANGE MAN BAD," "KILLING GRANDMA") and generally vomiting emotion all over the place... because they don't really know what's going on, but they're terrified, and they want to do the BIGGEST and LOUDEST and MOST VISIBLE thing that they can do about it.

The rational thing, based on how the situation presented in the beginning of the year, would have been to CLOSE ALL THE BORDERS, and to HALT ALL NONESSENTIAL TRAVEL effective immediately, and in a much stricter sense than we see the word "essential" being thrown around today. Six months or more ago. I can't even tell you how many people I said this to back in January who thought that was INSANE, and who absolutely LOST IT at the first hint that "omg racist trump will close the borders" -- but who are now screeching about how the administration failed to protect our country, and how anyone who doesn't want to wear a mask or get a vaccine is a murderer, blahblahfrickin'blah.

Now, I understand that the self-selected crowd here probably skews a bit more toward rational thinking. I also understand that message boards themselves lend to pontificating, and by extension a certain... intensity (the internet is serious business). So I'm not conflating you guys with some of the, er, uh, characters I know in meatspace. I HOPE none of you guys act like some of these folks... on EITHER side of... any issue. Why you think I came running back here after months of trying to focus on my local community??? 😬

But the principle remains: if I present a reasoned argument and am met with an attempt to emotionally bludgeon me into compliance and conformity (emotionally charged language, appeals to fear, appeals to authority, accusations, baseless conflations, etc.)...

I mean, I can sit and take that all day laughing - but I'm going to call it out for what it is.

[sothereiwas]

Total deaths per million:

1. New Jersey --> 1751
2. New York --> 1664
3. Connecticut --> 1220
4. Massachusetts --> 1204
5. Rhode Island --> 921
6. DC --> 805
7. Louisiana --> 728
8. Michigan --> 629
9. Illinois --> 580
10. Maryland --> 546

 

Who was doing a great job again? How much did locking down and staying locked down help? Where in this list are the states that opened back up?

 

[nittygritty]

On 7/8/2020 at 8:50 PM, Redhead14 said:

I don't give a crap what they wear.  Anything helps.  There is conflicting information so at least F ing try something.  And, no one can tell me that masks that aren't N95 aren't effective.  Doctors and nurses have been wearing fairly flimsy masks for a very, very, very long time in hospitals, etc. to prevent the spread of other illnesses.    And, no matter what anyone says, wearing masks and washing hands has been very effective in areas that have been abiding by those measures.  There is a ton of evidence to support wearing masks of any kind and that the minimal efforts that were being taken were working.  

Do you think people are wearing face masks when they have sex?  Or should having sex be banned too? The government trying to make not wearing a face mask a crime is beyond ridiculous! 

[nittygritty]

Maybe the government should just start arresting the people that test positive for COVID-19?  Cuz those are the ones that aren’t wearing face masks, social distancing and washing their hands, right? 🤔

Edited July 11, 2020 by nittygritty

[Angelle]

16 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

Maybe the government should just start arresting the people that test positive for COVID-19?  Cuz those are the ones that aren’t wearing face masks, social distancing and washing their hands, right? 🤔

I've just seen a comment from a woman who said that her sister tested positive (and is having trouble breathing on day nineteen), but that since she wore a mask at work, nobody was infected. I don't know how her sister caught it.