Glad to see life is almost back to normal, but how?

[QuietRiot]

10 hours ago, BaileyB said:

Agree. 

And today, the first report of a reinfection which means herd immunity may not actually come to be... for those who are hoping that this virus may just run its course. Worst case scenario, this may be around for years and years. It makes finding a vaccine more difficult as the virus mutates, although they say virus’ generally mutate to a less serious form because they don’t actually want to kill their host...

Actually, the amount of deaths have dropped considerably and the # of cases have gone down considerably in may areas. Even here in Florida.

[Prudence V]

16 hours ago, Elswyth said:

It's about saving our parents and grandparents and immunocompromised cancer patients and all the other vulnerable people in our community. Which I honestly don't understand why some people don't care about.

There seems to be a cultural aspect to this. Those of us from less “me-me-me” individualised / “freedom-focused” cultures are happy to see the big picture, to look at protecting others beyond ourselves or our immediate families, and so to is its a no-brainer to make concessions. For those who’ve been raised to claw their way to the top no matter what, killing off the weaker ones in the community probably seems like a good idea - even if they don’t openly admit it. 

[Prudence V]

4 hours ago, Wiseman2 said:

Doesn't feel " normal" at all. Far from it.

Yeah, nothing here feels “normal” either. We’re still all working from home - if I need to go into my office to collect books etc to prepare my teaching materials, I need to email my Dean a week in advance to ask permission and negotiate a time slot with the head of technical services to make sure the numbers in the building at any time are minimised. Once you get there there is a strict protocol to follow and you’re basically just allowed to go in, grab your stuff and get out (through a different door) having swiped in, sanitised, masked and gloved up, etc. Nothing feels remotely normal about that. 
 

I’ve spent the summer preparing loads of teaching materials for online / blended learning, which is our default (though the message to students is that we’ll offer as much face-to-face teaching as is safe). We have no idea how many students we’ll have in first year, or Y0, because of the A-levels fiasco and no BTEC results yet, so planning is hit-and-miss. Definitely not normal - by now we’d know who was in our personal tutor groups, and we’d be in contact with them to welcome them. Induction is also going to be online this year, except perhaps for small group induction to some labs which will be shorter, socially-distanced sessions staggered over an extended time rather than all in the first week. 

 

And our house and garden are looking amazing after all the chores we’ve been doing, since we didn’t go anywhere over the summer - and that is *definitely* not normal! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 

 

[Philosopher]

55 minutes ago, Prudence V said:

There seems to be a cultural aspect to this. Those of us from less “me-me-me” individualised / “freedom-focused” cultures are happy to see the big picture, to look at protecting others beyond ourselves or our immediate families, and so to is its a no-brainer to make concessions. For those who’ve been raised to claw their way to the top no matter what, killing off the weaker ones in the community probably seems like a good idea - even if they don’t openly admit it. 

I think if nearly everyone followed the rules to the letter then by now we would be in a situation where pretty much all restrictions could be removed and life could go back to normal, bar international travel. The death toll, impact on the economy and impact on people’s lives would be low. In some less individualist countries, such as Taiwan and Vietnam this does seem indeed to be the case. However in practice, in most more individualist Western cultures, I just do not think you going to get high enough compliance with the restrictions for this to be case. 

[Els]

11 hours ago, Spring1234 said:

Why don't these asymptomatic carriers spread it to their parents, older relatives, compromised friends and then you hear about how they killed their parents or grandparents?? 

If you work at these places I'm sure you go out and get together with people and live with people, why no spreading?

They probably do, but these secondary cases don't show up as related due to lack of investigation and testing, so you don't hear about it on the news even though there are thousands of cases a day which could very well be related. If granny falls ill and dies, how do you know that she got it from granddaughter #12 who went to DisneyWorld 2 weeks ago? You don't, unless you look for it - and people aren't looking.

[Spring1234]

43 minutes ago, Elswyth said:

They probably do, but these secondary cases don't show up as related due to lack of investigation and testing, so you don't hear about it on the news even though there are thousands of cases a day which could very well be related. If granny falls ill and dies, how do you know that she got it from granddaughter #12 who went to DisneyWorld 2 weeks ago? You don't, unless you look for it - and people aren't looking.

How about someone's daughter works at Disney and now her mother has covid and is in the hospital then Disney employees have to quarantine. Disney hasn't had any outbreaks, nowhere has... Just makes you wonder the amount of contagion currently with this virus. It does seem to be disappearing. I know it's hard to track guests, but what about employees? They're at these places all day, I'm sure they hang out in the break room, masks off. 

[Spring1234]

8 hours ago, Prudence V said:

Yeah, nothing here feels “normal” either. We’re still all working from home - if I need to go into my office to collect books etc to prepare my teaching materials, I need to email my Dean a week in advance to ask permission and negotiate a time slot with the head of technical services to make sure the numbers in the building at any time are minimised. Once you get there there is a strict protocol to follow and you’re basically just allowed to go in, grab your stuff and get out (through a different door) having swiped in, sanitised, masked and gloved up, etc. Nothing feels remotely normal about that. 
 

I’ve spent the summer preparing loads of teaching materials for online / blended learning, which is our default (though the message to students is that we’ll offer as much face-to-face teaching as is safe). We have no idea how many students we’ll have in first year, or Y0, because of the A-levels fiasco and no BTEC results yet, so planning is hit-and-miss. Definitely not normal - by now we’d know who was in our personal tutor groups, and we’d be in contact with them to welcome them. Induction is also going to be online this year, except perhaps for small group induction to some labs which will be shorter, socially-distanced sessions staggered over an extended time rather than all in the first week. 

 

And our house and garden are looking amazing after all the chores we’ve been doing, since we didn’t go anywhere over the summer - and that is *definitely* not normal! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 

 

Okay I understand the school/work life isn't normal. However if you put that aside, social life is normal. Everywhere is opened, business as normal except with masks. 

I thought more places would have outbreaks, I'm glad they reopened and took a chance it's paid off! I thought indoor dining, Disney, casinos, water parks, shore towns, anything involving people would cause people to get sick, guess not go figure. 

[Spring1234]

9 hours ago, QuietRiot said:

I got one for ya. We live in a smaller area, with a cluster of  small cities. The first small town to mandate masks came to be, because business owners were seriously concerned about people coming in and out of their small businesses in the bedroom community without masks and such.  The mandate was passed a few months ago.

Yesterday, some place (cafe of sorts) posted a picture of numerous maskless "moms celebrating their kids first day at school"...crowded in their like sardines. Never liked that place for that reason, as it's always been small dining area.

1. First day of in-person school is being celebrated (which is a ticking time bomb as well...the schools reopening)

2. Then people crowded into an area...."celebrating" the first day of school after dropping their kids off.

It does seem normal looking at the photo and why, but seriously...wow!

Exactly, good for these people. I wouldn't do that, but I'm sure they'll all be fine. Initially you'd think wow there's going to be an outbreak there, just wait 2 weeks blah blah blah, however never happens. You would think with such a contagious virus it would be inevitable. I don't think the virus is as contagious or circulating as much anymore. I think masks and any social distancing has helped. I am going to start getting together with friends again, go out and start living. It's obviously foolish to keep isolating.

Again I just have to work through my initial fear. 

I wouldn't have been the first to go out and do these things, but now it's been months. 

[Weezy1973]

1 hour ago, Spring1234 said:

I thought more places would have outbreaks, I'm glad they reopened and took a chance it's paid off! I thought indoor dining, Disney, casinos, water parks, shore towns, anything involving people would cause people to get sick, guess not go figure. 

There are a lot of stages between lockdown and pre-Covid normal. Where I live nothing is back to normal, but almost everything is open. Still no large group gathering (ex. Sporting events). Border with the US is closed. Some stores mandate masks. Most restrict the number of people inside at any one time. Hand sanitizer is available pretty much at every store and / or public gathering place. Everybody stays at least 2 meters / 6 feet apart and there are often indicators on where you should be standing when in line etc. 

All these things make a difference. The biggest thing is probably not touching your face and making sure to wash your hands with soap in warm water regularly.

 

The places you listed almost definitely have safety measures in place as well. Just check our the Disney website. Masks, temperature checks, limiting the number of people in the park, physical distancing etc. 
 

Any improvements you’re seeing are due to these measures being in place. Viruses don’t just disappear. Either a vaccine is created, an effective treatment Is created, or the virus mutates into a more benign strain over time. But it doesn’t just go away.

[serial muse]

2 hours ago, Spring1234 said:

How about someone's daughter works at Disney and now her mother has covid and is in the hospital then Disney employees have to quarantine. Disney hasn't had any outbreaks, nowhere has... Just makes you wonder the amount of contagion currently with this virus. It does seem to be disappearing. I know it's hard to track guests, but what about employees? They're at these places all day, I'm sure they hang out in the break room, masks off. 

As you mentioned just in your first post, there are now dozens of outbreaks at colleges and universities, as people pour back in. How is that "nowhere has"? Many of these institutions have had to reverse their original plans for in-person classes due to these outbreaks. Which is...exactly what you'd expect, honestly.

 

[Spring1234]

46 minutes ago, Weezy1973 said:

There are a lot of stages between lockdown and pre-Covid normal. Where I live nothing is back to normal, but almost everything is open. Still no large group gathering (ex. Sporting events). Border with the US is closed. Some stores mandate masks. Most restrict the number of people inside at any one time. Hand sanitizer is available pretty much at every store and / or public gathering place. Everybody stays at least 2 meters / 6 feet apart and there are often indicators on where you should be standing when in line etc. 

All these things make a difference. The biggest thing is probably not touching your face and making sure to wash your hands with soap in warm water regularly.

 

The places you listed almost definitely have safety measures in place as well. Just check our the Disney website. Masks, temperature checks, limiting the number of people in the park, physical distancing etc. 
 

Any improvements you’re seeing are due to these measures being in place. Viruses don’t just disappear. Either a vaccine is created, an effective treatment Is created, or the virus mutates into a more benign strain over time. But it doesn’t just go away.

I hear what you're saying, however in my city nobody cares about distancing. Outdoor bars, restaurants are packed, our shore towns literally are operating as before covid, there's no distancing and masks there.

People have their noses out while wearing masks. 

I know there's safety measures that help, however Disney and all these places not having outbreaks is crazy!! 

The employees I'm sure hang out in groups in the breakroom with no masks. They're usually young people. 

All that touching on the attractions, it's just supposed to be such a contagious virus if it truly was these places couldn't operate because of all the outbreaks.

Water parks, house parties, indoor dining, movies, malls how can employees be fine, makes no sense.

 

[Spring1234]

1 hour ago, serial muse said:

As you mentioned just in your first post, there are now dozens of outbreaks at colleges and universities, as people pour back in. How is that "nowhere has"? Many of these institutions have had to reverse their original plans for in-person classes due to these outbreaks. Which is...exactly what you'd expect, honestly.

 

Okay that's colleges, what about everywhere else, silence. 

I also haven't heard of any college student actually dying or giving it to a family member that died.

[Spring1234]

How do you think I should stop being less scared? Any advice? 

I just think about all the people out and about and they're fine. 

I feel ridiculous staying at home.

[Prudence V]

18 hours ago, Spring1234 said:

However if you put that aside, social life is normal. Everywhere is opened, business as normal except with masks. 

Not around here. Some places are open, sure, but if you see people queuing outside, with masks and gloves, 2m apart, being allowed in one by one only when someone else leaves, you wouldn’t mistake that for normal. Schools are due to open next month, and many parents won’t be sending their kids, despite the PM trying to bully them into doing it. And the PM has had to back down and adopt WHO advice about high schools (kids 12 and older) wearing masks. No music, no drama, no PE - too high risk. 
 

Live music is still a way off. Most of my musician friends, and friends in the industry, are either pursuing side hustles or mastering the online live-streamed gig. One friend has agreed to do a live performance at a pub, under very strict and careful conditions, as a trial, next month - everyone thinks he’s very brave and he couldn’t find anyone to share the set with him. Live music has been a huge part of the social scene in my nearest town, and that’s all been killed off (for now). 
 

I don’t know anyone who’s eaten out, despite the government picking up half of the bill if you do. The lanes around are still full of delivery vehicles, which suggests no one much has returned to the shops either. And we’ve just signed up for online gin tasting - another activity that’s had to be moved online because it’s not safe to do in person currently. 
 

Things may be different where you live, but in the rest of the world, it’s far from over. 

[Prudence V]

14 hours ago, Spring1234 said:

I feel ridiculous staying at home.

I feel safe staying at home. 

[clia]

15 hours ago, Spring1234 said:

How do you think I should stop being less scared? Any advice? 

I just think about all the people out and about and they're fine. 

I feel ridiculous staying at home.

Baby steps.  Think of what you consider to be a lower risk activity and go do that.  Probably something outside.  Go to a restaurant or coffee shop at a non-peak time when it is not crowded (e.g., 3 p.m. in the afternoon or something like that), sit outside, and have something to eat or a drink.  Or go to the zoo, where you are outside wearing a mask the entire time.  Or go sit on a bench at a park.  Whatever you think you can handle.  It feels kind of weird and scary at first, but you get used to it, and it starts to feel normal again.      

[Spring1234]

Watching General Hospital the soap opera today. They're back filming as well as the other soaps and Christmas movies have been filming for months, I don't get it. How can these shows film and have no outbreaks??? I know they have precautions, but still if this virus is soooo contagious i thought outbreaks are inevitable.

I don't think this virus makes any sense. I'm going on vacation this week to my shore town. I just don't think it's as contagious as they say or used to say. I can't keep staying at home when everyone is everywhere. I'll wear a mask, stay out of crowds etc. 

I just think they should say they were wrong about the contagiousness of this virus. Like they should update people on what's safe, well never mind I guess everyone can surmise it's pretty safe to go back to life based on everyone everywhere. 

Again no crowds, however did anyone see the RNC tonight, I'm sure they'll all be fine. How could that be though, no masks, distancing, thousands chanting 4 more years. 

It's ridiculous..

[QuietRiot]

30 minutes ago, Spring1234 said:

Watching General Hospital the soap opera today. They're back filming as well as the other soaps and Christmas movies have been filming for months, I don't get it. How can these shows film and have no outbreaks??? I know they have precautions, but still if this virus is soooo contagious i thought outbreaks are inevitable.

I don't think this virus makes any sense. I'm going on vacation this week to my shore town. I just don't think it's as contagious as they say or used to say. I can't keep staying at home when everyone is everywhere. I'll wear a mask, stay out of crowds etc. 

I just think they should say they were wrong about the contagiousness of this virus. Like they should update people on what's safe, well never mind I guess everyone can surmise it's pretty safe to go back to life based on everyone everywhere. 

Again no crowds, however did anyone see the RNC tonight, I'm sure they'll all be fine. How could that be though, no masks, distancing, thousands chanting 4 more years. 

It's ridiculous..

From what I've been reading...there are talks of how a portion of the population will be immune or build immunity to it....that the virus will still be around...but, it'll go from pandemic mode, to more so epidemic outbreak at the community level. This explains why we see resurgences in areas where the numbers were once low. I'm sure even New York will have it's bout or resurgences....and..don't forget the seasonal effects.  It was a cake walk in the summer, come Winter time, we'll probably be likely seeing numbers sky rocket in the colder months.

Outbreaks will be more spotty. More  here and there as oppose to all at once. Don't be surprised come cold weather (winter) that you'll see numbers spike.  

The caveat there is, just wear a mask and social distance. AMC theaters are opening back up again with these guidelines. Of course you'll have those unbelieving types crowding establishments, maskless, cramped in like sardines like I saw with the "moms gathering after dropping their kids off as school" gathering. Blows my mind when those city businesses pushed for mask mandates on the Mayor...then I see THAT happen?

Edited August 28, 2020 by QuietRiot

[basil67]

40 minutes ago, Spring1234 said:

I just think they should say they were wrong about the contagiousness of this virus.

If they were wrong, how do you explain your death toll?

Edited August 28, 2020 by basil67

[schlumpy]

It's possible that the death toll in the US is a reflection of our aging population. We know with certainty that people over 60 are heavily affected by the virus and I speak as one that within that group. You must remember our death toll was predicted to be over 2 million by the experts and computer modeling. It seems to me that under 200,000 deaths is a victory compared to the predicted number.

I don't expect there will be a reasonable assessment of the virus and its toll until after this election. Even then it will be a couple of years before something comes out that makes sense.

[QuietRiot]

21 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

It's possible that the death toll in the US is a reflection of our aging population. We know with certainty that people over 60 are heavily affected by the virus and I speak as one that within that group. You must remember our death toll was predicted to be over 2 million by the experts and computer modeling. It seems to me that under 200,000 deaths is a victory compared to the predicted number.

I don't expect there will be a reasonable assessment of the virus and its toll until after this election. Even then it will be a couple of years before something comes out that makes sense.

Predictions  of 2 million deaths in the US or worldwide?

[basil67]

24 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

It's possible that the death toll in the US is a reflection of our aging population. We know with certainty that people over 60 are heavily affected by the virus and I speak as one that within that group.

Other countries have old people too.  How do you explain the lower death toll of old folks in other countries?

[clia]

I think there are probably a number of things that contributed to the higher number of deaths in the USA.  

Some states didn't adequately protect our older citizens in nursing homes.  As a result, those people account for something like 40% of the deaths in the US.

We also hear a lot about how unhealthy Americans are compared to the rest of the world (e.g., obesity, etc.), so my guess is that has something to do with it, since most of the people who died had other underlying health issues.  Obesity is starting to look like a big risk factor.  

Deaths here have also heavily impacted some minority groups, and I'm not sure if they've figured out exactly why yet, but it could be any number of things -- living situation, lack of health care, etc.  .  

Even across states there is a big disparity in the case fatality rate -- 1.8% in California 6.0% in Michigan, 8.5% in Connecticut, 2.5% in Arizona, 2.0% in Georgia and Texas, 7.1% in New York, 1.3% in South Dakota, 1.7% in Florida and Oregon, etc.  (I just chose some random states.)

We probably won't know the reasons (and final excess mortality) for some time, but someone will probably figure it out. 

[QuietRiot]

2 hours ago, clia said:

I think there are probably a number of things that contributed to the higher number of deaths in the USA.  

Some states didn't adequately protect our older citizens in nursing homes.  As a result, those people account for something like 40% of the deaths in the US.

We also hear a lot about how unhealthy Americans are compared to the rest of the world (e.g., obesity, etc.), so my guess is that has something to do with it, since most of the people who died had other underlying health issues.  Obesity is starting to look like a big risk factor.  

Deaths here have also heavily impacted some minority groups, and I'm not sure if they've figured out exactly why yet, but it could be any number of things -- living situation, lack of health care, etc.  .  

Even across states there is a big disparity in the case fatality rate -- 1.8% in California 6.0% in Michigan, 8.5% in Connecticut, 2.5% in Arizona, 2.0% in Georgia and Texas, 7.1% in New York, 1.3% in South Dakota, 1.7% in Florida and Oregon, etc.  (I just chose some random states.)

We probably won't know the reasons (and final excess mortality) for some time, but someone will probably figure it out. 

I am starting to wonder if the OP is "lawyering" his way to possibly join in the fray of people getting back out there to "normalcy" not that I entirely fault him / her for it, but I can see people who have been a good boy/gal since March getting "the itch" especially now that infected people seem to recover after a time and not attached to ventilators as much (hospitalized). I think some that have been good this entire time are trying to read the articles, see people out and about...unmasked even...and figure "F-it...I'll join in too!"

Hell, even I'm considering joining a couple of friends for a gathering, (masks on) or even go on a date at this point....but, meet halfway by not joining crowds of people doing live music. If anything, I'll have one-on-one meetings with   individuals.

I think Thanksgiving through Christmas is when people who have been good the entire year will pretend the virus doesn't exist and partake in huge family gatherings and with friends during the holidays.

People , who played nice this entire time will feel it's time to let it go, honestly.

[clia]

Well, yeah.  People aren't going to stay in their houses all year, especially when they look at the current stats and start running the math for themselves.  Until this thread, I really hadn't realized that people who aren't in high risk categories were still living under lockdown.  Where I am traffic is nearly back to normal, restaurants are packed, people are out and about, etc.