What numbers are you looking for in your area before you can get back to normal?

[max3732]

They report the number of new cases, the % positive rate, and how these numbers compare to the worst numbers in the paper and online. Is there a number that should signal the "all clear" as far as the risk being as low as the flu or low enough that even someone with an underlying condition should feel safe about returning to normal life? 

I know that under 10% positive rate for 2 weeks was the standard to reopen some areas, but what should the standard be to return to grocery shopping, eating outdoors at restaurants, hanging out with friends, going on dates, etc?

In other words, is there a number that I can read in my area and then say "now it's safe to go to back to normal life" even if I'm at higher risk of complications from the virus?

[basil67]

I'd be guessing a number close to zero in your area, and that's with travel limitations in place so that infected people don't come from beyond that area.

Here in Australia, we start getting back to normalish when we see around 10 new cases per day/per state.  

Edited September 2, 2020 by basil67

[Mrin]

My county here in the US has a really detailed system with specific metrics for everything except for totally normal. That's really subjective. Take a gander https://covid19.gunnisoncounty.org/community-resources/public-health-orders/

[elaine567]

12 hours ago, max3732 said:

Is there a number that should signal the "all clear" as far as the risk being as low as the flu or low enough that even someone with an underlying condition should feel safe about returning to normal life? 

As you are high risk then there is no number that indicates it is totally safe for you to return to normal with the virus still being around.
Until there is a vaccine then you will always be at high risk of being seriously ill.
Cases can go from zero to tens or hundreds of cases in a few days, that is the problem with exponential spread and why you need to be careful.

[schlumpy]

My area just went from Stage 4 (the highest) to Stage 3.

I think I shall wait a bit longer.

[d0nnivain]

I don't know.  Even though I live in the original hot spot -- NY Metro area -- I live on the outskirts.  The numbers here were never very high, except in one unfortunate nursing home.  We didn't have any Covid deaths in June or July & have very few cases. 

I went to a grocery store 2 weeks ago for only the 2nd time since March.  DH & I went out to eat once & we have visited friends.  

I just learned that about a month ago a dear friend in her 40s had a Covid stroke that has left her unable to move or speak.  That has my world off kilter. 

I don't know if it will ever again be normal.  I doubt I would ever go to a movie or the theater again.  Concerts are out.  Not sure about travel, museums, sporting events or malls.  

I had a panic attack at a wake & feel uneasy going to Church.  

I hate living in fear but am not even sure what I'm afraid of. 

[schlumpy]

Keep in mind that flu and cold season will soon be back and every human being has a built in flight response to illness.

Anyone coughing behind my back is going to make me very uneasy.

I just have to remind myself that Covid is just one of many diseases, viruses and accidents that are waiting like snares to end my life.

[d0nnivain]

2 minutes ago, schlumpy said:

Keep in mind that flu and cold season will soon be back and every human being has a built in flight response to illness.

I think that is part of what's making me uneasy.  If we get through this without wiping out 1,000,000 more people I might feel better about "normal" in the Spring.  

[Bluesky00]

22 minutes ago, d0nnivain said:

I don't know.  Even though I live in the original hot spot -- NY Metro area -- I live on the outskirts.  The numbers here were never very high, except in one unfortunate nursing home.  We didn't have any Covid deaths in June or July & have very few cases. 

I went to a grocery store 2 weeks ago for only the 2nd time since March.  DH & I went out to eat once & we have visited friends.  

I just learned that about a month ago a dear friend in her 40s had a Covid stroke that has left her unable to move or speak.  That has my world off kilter. 

I don't know if it will ever again be normal.  I doubt I would ever go to a movie or the theater again.  Concerts are out.  Not sure about travel, museums, sporting events or malls.  

I had a panic attack at a wake & feel uneasy going to Church.  

I hate living in fear but am not even sure what I'm afraid of. 

It’s safe to go to the stores as long as you follow the guidelines and protect yourself. And you could go to the mall, most people aren’t mall shopping these days anyway, so most likely it won’t be busy at all. 

Unless you are going to house parties with +100 people, packed bars, not wearing mask, and just standing shoulder to shoulder with strangers, then yeah that’s stupid. And technically you could travel if it’s outdoors, nature walks or visiting some national forest with few people. Check some facts !

Edited September 3, 2020 by Bluesky00

[BaileyB]

We got to one active case this summer with almost two weeks of no new infections. Life was still not normal, in many ways. And now, a month later we have over 400 active infections and more activity than we had in the spring. It happens that fast, most were related to travel and close contacts but now, they say there is some community spread. 

[clia]

You have to decide for yourself, based on what makes you comfortable and the level of acceptable risk to you.  Some people have already decided to get back to "normal" (depending on what's allowed in their area), others are still staying home as much as possible.  No one can tell you what is best for you.  If you are at higher risk, you should definitely be more cautious.  

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 9/2/2020 at 3:58 PM, max3732 said:

They report the number of new cases, the % positive rate, and how these numbers compare to the worst numbers in the paper and online. Is there a number that should signal the "all clear" as far as the risk being as low as the flu or low enough that even someone with an underlying condition should feel safe about returning to normal life? 

I know that under 10% positive rate for 2 weeks was the standard to reopen some areas, but what should the standard be to return to grocery shopping, eating outdoors at restaurants, hanging out with friends, going on dates, etc?

In other words, is there a number that I can read in my area and then say "now it's safe to go to back to normal life" even if I'm at higher risk of complications from the virus?

 

LOL -   there is no more  "normal"

 

Cases world-wide increase by more than 25% every 3 weeks.

 

There will be 7 times this many cases by next spring...  and it is the stupid "re-opening" of which you speak which will bring that about even faster.

 

The numbers you read today   relate only to data compiled while most were refraining from travel.

 

When things go back to your "normal"...     then the present day walk in the park will be eclipsed.

 

Speaking of eclipsed...   a more sensible goal off in the future would be to just HOPE you can be safe and able to go and see the U.S. solar eclipse of April 8, 2024.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

16 hours ago, d0nnivain said:

I don't know.  Even though I live in the original hot spot -- NY Metro area -- I live on the outskirts. 

 

Uh,  how is NYC any sort of "original hot spot" ??

 

 

[schlumpy]

5 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

 

LOL -   there is no more  "normal"

 

Cases world-wide increase by more than 25% every 3 weeks.

 

There will be 7 times this many cases by next spring...  and it is the stupid "re-opening" of which you speak which will bring that about even faster.

 

What is your prediction for Sweden which did not have to do a stupid re-opening because they never shut down in first place?

[elaine567]

They didn't need to lock down, the Swedes are a very sensible people, who respect authority and follow the rules.

Quote

"Swedes in general have changed their behavior to a great extent during the pandemic and the practice of social distancing as well as physical distancing in public places and at work has been widespread," said Maria Furberg, MD, PhD, an infectious diseases expert at Umea University Hospital in northeastern Sweden.

"During the months of March to early June, all shops were practically empty, people stopped dining with friends, and families stopped seeing even their closest relatives," Furberg told MedPage Today. "A lock-down could not have been more effective. Handwashing, excessive use of hand sanitizers, and staying home at the first sign of a cold became the new normal very quickly."

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812#:~:text=Swedes have been asked to,others as much as possible.

[schlumpy]

6 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

They didn't need to lock down, the Swedes are a very sensible people, who respect authority and follow the rules.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812#:~:text=Swedes have been asked to,others as much as possible.

Thank you Elaine that was very interesting article.

This does seem very admirable. Why all the criticism from the WHO and other European countries?

[QuietRiot]

6 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

 

LOL -   there is no more  "normal"

 

Cases world-wide increase by more than 25% every 3 weeks.

 

There will be 7 times this many cases by next spring...  and it is the stupid "re-opening" of which you speak which will bring that about even faster.

 

The numbers you read today   relate only to data compiled while most were refraining from travel.

 

When things go back to your "normal"...     then the present day walk in the park will be eclipsed.

 

Speaking of eclipsed...   a more sensible goal off in the future would be to just HOPE you can be safe and able to go and see the U.S. solar eclipse of April 8, 2024.

Right, until a vaccine is administered, this is how we'll continue to behave.

[Spring1234]

I just feel everyone is everywhere and I  don't think my state in PA has spiked. I went on vacation this week to our shore town and had a great time. Mostly everyone wore masks in the stores, social distancing on the beach and passing by people on the boardwalk isn't how it spreads. 

I'm so glad I went. I was terrified of covid in the Spring, however since seeing everything reopen and everyone everywhere I'm not as worried.

Life has risks, just be smart about where you go. Wear a mask, stay clear of people not wearing a mask, don't go into crowds, wash your hands, it's really common sense at this point.

I've gone to the mall, saw family, lake, shore, I'm going to go mini golf, into the city, outdoor dining, just being smart about it. 

I think you have to always be mindful, but no reason to lock yourself in your house anymore. 

People are out living their lives and most are fine.

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Spring1234

[QuietRiot]

This Labor Day Weekend, we'll get spikes. We still have people going around maskless.

Edited September 5, 2020 by QuietRiot

[Eternal Sunshine]

Our state government will not open up until there are zero average cases over 14 week period.

In the best case scenario, I will be able to leave 5km radius of my home at the end of October and also nightly curfew will be lifted. This will only happen if there is a 5 or less average new daily cases statewide over 14 weeks (current average is 84 new cases). Some outdoor dining will also be allowed but most of other restrictions will stay in place until end of November (target zero cases). The plan is insane because there is no chance of zero new cases average even with the vaccine. 

I have made a decision that if nothing much changes by November, I will be looking to relocate. I will not live in the eternal lockdown.

[QuietRiot]

19 minutes ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

Our state government will not open up until there are zero average cases over 14 week period.

In the best case scenario, I will be able to leave 5km radius of my home at the end of October and also nightly curfew will be lifted. This will only happen if there is a 5 or less average new daily cases statewide over 14 weeks (current average is 84 new cases). Some outdoor dining will also be allowed but most of other restrictions will stay in place until end of November (target zero cases). The plan is insane because there is no chance of zero new cases average even with the vaccine. 

I have made a decision that if nothing much changes by November, I will be looking to relocate. I will not live in the eternal lockdown.

Wow, what state do you live on that's doing this?

[basil67]

29 minutes ago, Eternal Sunshine said:

Our state government will not open up until there are zero average cases over 14 week period.

In the best case scenario, I will be able to leave 5km radius of my home at the end of October and also nightly curfew will be lifted. This will only happen if there is a 5 or less average new daily cases statewide over 14 weeks (current average is 84 new cases). Some outdoor dining will also be allowed but most of other restrictions will stay in place until end of November (target zero cases). The plan is insane because there is no chance of zero new cases average even with the vaccine. 

I have made a decision that if nothing much changes by November, I will be looking to relocate. I will not live in the eternal lockdown.

Yeah, while rogue NSW and VIC peeps are sneaking in, it will undo all the good your govt is trying to do.   What about those girls who did the VIC to QLD journey while infected!   They deserved the roasting they got.

Edited September 8, 2020 by basil67

[basil67]

10 minutes ago, QuietRiot said:

Wow, what state do you live on that's doing this?

She's in Australia.  We're big on country/state border closures here.   And probably just as well because of what happened with bad management in Victoria.  

[elaine567]

Complacency is killing us in Scotland and the UK, as we are now getting new spikes from a position of very low cases.
We opened up not fully but broadly and now some people don't even watch the news or the Coronavirus briefings, they have just gone back to "normal".,
In fact it seems some are deliberately flouting the rules as some sort of a protest I guess.
The Me Me Me mindset plays a part too and some are genuinely just too ignorant to understand, sad to say... 
The Test, Track and Isolate system is finding new cases and contacts, but only 20% of those contacted by them will actually isolate...
Boris since his secret holiday in Scotland, has again gone MIA and he leaves a collection of lackeys to do the dirty work...
Delegation seems to be his strong point...
LOL if it wasn't potentially so tragic...

[elaine567]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B835/production/_114275174_uk_daily_cases_with_ra_7sep-nc.png
Graph of the UK daily new cases.