Tony, May I ask you about business, please?

[Kevin]

How much will the Dow decreas this time! How is it going to affect the whole world?

 

No matter what causes the accident, no one is dare to fly by aeroplane!

[Tony T]

I am not a psychic nor do I profess to have any unusual knowledge of the financial markets. With that disclaimer, I will answer your questions.

 

1. How much will the Dow decreas this time!

 

I don't know what you mean by "this time." The dow is going down at the moment in response to the plane crash in New York. Once it's established that the crash was not the result of terrorism, it will go back up. It will go back eventually, even if terrorists were responsible.

 

If you're talking about this recession cycle, the dow will go briefly as low as 8000 but rebound quickly. Unless you own stock, this market shouldn't really be any concern to you. It's just legalized gambling and losses are mostly on paper.

 

In a recovery, expect the dow to go as high as 14,000, probably toward the end of 2003. However, with Internet fever over with, don't look for the kind of wild upward rides we had during the 96-98 period. That was insane.

 

2. How is it going to affect the whole world?

 

The world is rarely affected by the stock market. As the recession worsens, trade with other countries will be difficult as they will have less money to spend with the U.S. Unemployment will increase everywhere, there will be many foreclosures of homes, bankruptcies, etc. but not that much more than the recession of 74-75, which was one of the worst economic times in the last 40 years.

 

Lower gas prices and other factors are actually helping matters not get even worse at this time. During the 74-75 recession, there was double digit inflation and gas went from 29.9 for regular gas to $1.00 per gallon in just a few months and people had to wait in line for hours for three or four dollars worth of it.

 

Things always get better. Don't worry about the economy.

 

3. No matter what causes the accident, no one is dare to fly by aeroplane!

 

People will always continue to fly. It may take them a while to feel safe again but let them take a few lengthy car rides and they'll feel the plane ride is worth a slight risk. It's far safer than auto travel.

 

Since the World Trade Center attack, more than 100,000 have died nationally due to heart attacks (caused by lack of exercise, eating fatty foods, smoking, etc.), cancer (caused by poor diet and smoking), auto accidents (caused by stupidity and carelessness), etc. So Americans are far worse enemies to themselves than are terrorists.

 

Flying has never, ever been safer. There are more safeguards to flying now than ever in the history of aviation. There will always be accidents but the resulting deaths from flying will be far less than alternate forms of travel.